St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS63 KEAX 112000
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected this week, with highs
  approaching 90 degrees by Friday.

- Chance (15 to 30%) for storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
  few of these could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

H5 analysis shows troughing across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging over much of the western CONUS and a shortwave trough
moving into the Northern Plains, resulting in continued
northwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. At the surface, a weak
boundary is analyzed across northeastern Missouri, extending
back to the northwest and connecting to a 1002 mb surface low
over southern Saskatchewan. With higher mid level heights
building in from the western ridge, temperatures today will be
quite a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s and 10 to 15 mph southwesterly winds.

The aforementioned shortwave trough currently across the
Intermountain West into the Northern Plains will dig into the
Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow and eventually into the Ohio
Valley by tomorrow evening, sending a cold front toward our CWA
from the northwest. Warm air and moisture advection ahead of
this system will help send temperatures into the mid to upper
80s tomorrow afternoon along with dew points rising into the low
to mid 50s and SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph. The front should
enter into far NW Missouri by mid Tuesday afternoon, into the
KC metro by the evening, and through the CWA by around midnight.
12z SPC HREF shows a narrow corridor of up to around 1250 J/kg
of SB CAPE out ahead of the approaching front, along with around
40 knots of deep layer bulk shear. Low level lapse rates should
steepen ahead of the front, yielding inverted V soundings and a
damaging wind potential. Additionally, modestly steep mid level
lapse rates may support a marginally severe hail threat, as
well. However, despite the decent parameter space for strong to
severe storms, forcing remains better to our northeast, and
strongly veered surface winds should limit convergence along the
front and may not be enough to yield convective initiation.
CAMs continue to not really convect along the front in our CWA,
with only 20 to 30 percent PoPs in the current forecast.

Temperatures should be cooler on Wednesday behind the front as
surface high pressure builds in and we remain on the western
periphery of longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS.
However, temperatures should rebound quickly as shortwave upper
ridging moves back in from the west, with highs in the upper 80s
to perhaps even the lower 90s for Friday through Sunday. By
Friday night into Saturday, guidance suggests a shortwave trough
moving into the Southern Plains, yielding southwesterly deep
layer flow. On Sunday, yet another shortwave is projected to
move into the Northern Plains. This will result in low end PoPs
(20 to 40 percent) for much of the weekend. This trough is
progged to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late Sunday
night, potentially bringing another cold front through the
region and increasing PoPs to 50 to 60 percent. NBM guidance
continues to run a little warm, and forecast MaxTs for Friday
through Sunday may still be too warm, especially with the
potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions under generally clear skies should persist
through the period. Southwest winds around 10 knots this
afternoon should become more southerly (around 200 degrees) by
this evening, remaining around 10 knots. SW winds should begin
gusting to around 22 knots by 8 to 10z Tuesday, with gusts up to
26 knots by 14z Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW