St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS63 KEAX 110415
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Wednesday evening for
  far east-central Kansas into central Missouri.

* Low chances (10-30%) of overnight showers and storms through
  midweek, primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern
  Missouri.

* Rain chances increase late week (50-70%), generally north of
  US-36.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Upper-level ridging continues over the southern CONUS with a
stationary surface boundary draping across southern Iowa and the
High Plains. Overnight showers and storms that developed along this
boundary as the low-level jet ramped up were carried to the
southeast, resulting in areas of light rain and widespread cloud
cover continuing after sunrise this morning. Cloud cover may once
again mitigate some of the heat today, primarily north of the I-70
corridor. This afternoon, a shortwave is expected to roll across
northern Missouri. Confidence in adequate moisture advection into
the area is lower, however, so thinking a rather low-end probability
of seeing any shower or storm during this timeframe. Even so, this
combined with the cloud cover possibility, was not confident in
issuing a heat product north of the existing Extreme Heat Warning
today. Expecting peak heat indices in the 105-110F range in the
Extreme Heat Warning area with heat indices around 100-105F possible
further north.

Little changes to the synoptic pattern are expected over the coming
days with the upper-level ridge remaining while several shortwaves
traverse the mean flow. Moreover, the surface boundary looks to take
the "stationary" part of its name to heart with only slight bobs to
the north and south through midweek. The corridor surrounding this
boundary will be one to watch over the coming evenings with nearing
shortwaves and the nightly uptick of the low-level jet. Generally
speaking, models have struggled to latch on to overnight and early
morning shower/storm potential as during earlier forecasts. We have
seen this film before, though, and rather recently at that. In fact,
the next several overnight/early morning periods appear to be reruns
of the past two mornings where shower/storm development was poorly
resolved by CAMs but occurred nonetheless. Consequently, opted to
once again include 10-30% PoPs in our north during the early morning
hours through midweek...should CAMs better resolve this potential,
would consider increasing PoPs in the north as well as possibly
bringing some PoPs closer to the KC metro. A marginal (level 1 of 5)
severe risk will also exist with elevated overnight storms in the
form of damaging wind gusts. Due to potential convective debris
bleeding into the the solar heating period, no additional heat
headlines were issued this forecast cycle, and the issuance of such
products will continue to be taken day-by-day (or forecast cycle by
forecast cycle, if you will). That said, even though confidence in
reaching Heat Advisory criteria is low, it will still be hot and
vulnerable populations should continue to exercise heat precautions.

The stationary boundary will eventually crawl south as cold front,
most likely sometime between late Wednesday afternoon and early
Thursday morning. The passage of this front could reduce daily high
temperatures by as much as 5-10F along and north of the US-36
corridor. Further south, it may not be until the weekend before
there is some reprieve from the heat. More rain chances arrive as
the front moves southward as well, although the US-36 corridor and
north look to be the main beneficiaries.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period under mostly
clear skies. South southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots
are likely overnight into early Tuesday morning before relaxing
by around 15z Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...BMW