St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS63 KEAX 172009
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
209 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light to moderate snow showers will continue this
  afternoon, particular across north-central Missouri. Brief
  reductions in visibility are possible, but no significant
  travel impacts are anticipated.

- After a brief warmup on Sunday, a reinforcing shot of Arctic
  air will arrive Sunday night. Wind chill values Monday morning
  will range from -5 to -15 degrees.

- Temperatures will moderate back to typical values for the
  remainder of the work week, with a small chance of
  precipitation returning to the forecast Friday night into next
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The much-awaited deep troughing has set up over the central and
northern Great Plains. A vertically-stacked H5/H3 disturbance in
central IA continues to aid in generating areas of light to
moderate snow showers, especially across northern Missouri. So
far, impacts have been limited to brief drops in visibility, but
there is a nonzero risk that repeated rounds of light snow
could cause a few slippery spots to develop. Have issued a
Special Weather Statement for north-central MO to highlight this
potential through 6 PM.

Tonight, the snow showers and flurries will taper off as H5
height briefly rise over the region. This will also allow the
influence of a broad surface high across the southern Great
Plains and Mid-South to push high temperatures back to near
normal values on Sunday. However, it will be a chilly start to
the day, with low temperatures in the single digits and teens
and wind chill values of zero to -10 degrees.

The reprieve from the cold will be short-lived, as a secondary
Arctic cold front will push through the region Sunday late
afternoon into the evening. Like with the previous system on
Friday, isolated to scattered snow showers or flurries will be
possible again, particularly in northwest and north-central MO.
However, low- level dry air will be particularly robust, with
dew point depressions of 15-20 degrees across the area. This
should limit greatly any potential accumulations to nothing or a
very light dusting.

Bitter cold is again forecast for MLK Jr. Day on Monday, as a
progged 1038 mb surface high descends upon the area from the
Alberta/Saskatchewan region. Morning lows on Monday will again
fall into the single digits and lower 10s. However, winds will
be blustery from the northwest, sustained at 10-15 mph with
gusts of 20-25 mph. This will yield apparent temperatures of -5
to -15 degrees, with the coldest values in far north and
northeast MO. Depending on trends over the next 24 hours, a Cold
Weather Advisory may be needed for this area. High temperatures
on Monday will climb into the upper 10s and lower 20s under
mostly sunny skies.

From Tuesday through Thursday, temperatures will moderate back
towards normal values as the synoptic flow pattern transitions
to a NW baroclinic zone. Cannot rule out needing periods of small
precipitation chances during this period as small vorticity
maxima pass over the region, but PoPs will remain silent at
this time. Friday into next weekend, a transition to a more
zonal H5 flow regime will commence. The next chance of
mentionable PoPs will arrive Friday night into Saturday, as
model guidance has come in to better agreement regarding a
southern-stream disturbance developing in the Mid-South and
moving into the Ohio Valley. This will bring a return of chances
of rain or a rain/snow mixing, with the best chances at this
time being across southwest MO and Mid-MO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Periods of light to occasional moderate snow and snow showers will
continue this afternoon before diminishing overnight. Heavier snow
shower activity may produce TEMPO low VFR vsbys at MCI and MKC
through 22 and 23z respectively, while TEMPO MVFR vsby and cig
restrictions are possible at STJ through 22z. Cloud bases will lift
and clear overnight with high clouds returning Sunday morning.
Blustery NW winds of 15-20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts will continue
this afternoon before relaxing and shifting to the SW by Sunday
morning, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts
possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Snyder