St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS63 KEAX 280235
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
935 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to extreme fire danger across the region this afternoon
and again Saturday afternoon.

- Freeze warning region wide tonight into Saturday morning.

- Record high temperatures possible on Monday, with another
  strong cold front expected Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

1040+ mb high pressure has built into the western Northern Plains
centered across the western Dakotas as of 18Z. The cooler, drier
airmass change will lead to breezy conditions with low relative
humidity. With 10 hour fuels generally running in the 7-9 percent
range, it won`t take much for a fire to rapidly spread out of
control.  As such, have a red flag warning for eastern Kansas
through northern Missouri through the afternoon hours where relative
humidity values are expected to fall into the 15-25 percent range
through the afternoon hours.  Conditions are expected to improve
through the evening hours as winds decrease and relative humidity
values recover as temperatures cool with the dry airmass.

This area of high pressure is expected to slide southeast across the
region tonight leading to good radiative conditions.  With the dry
air mass in place, have hedged the forecast towards the lower side
of guidance but there is a relatively small spread amongst the
various ensemble members- suggesting high confidence in subfreezing
conditions area wide.  Given the growing degree days across the
region are generally in the 150-250 range, have coordinated a freeze
warning area wide with neighbors to the east and south.

Area of high pressure is expected to shift east of the region
tomorrow with strong pressure gradient leading to increasing
southerly winds on Saturday.  With dry airmass in place and Gulf
remaining closed, will once again see extreme fire danger across the
region Saturday afternoon. Current forecast has relative humidity
falling into the 15-20 percent range, but that could be on the high
side with limited moisture return and a wealth of dry air mixing
down from aloft. Did not include areas of central Missouri into the
Red Flag Warning on Saturday as winds look to be light enough closer
to the center of the ridge.

Southerly flow continues Saturday night into Sunday leading to more
mild conditions and lows Saturday night 10-15 degrees warmer than
tonight. Temperatures continue to warm Sunday into Monday, with near
record highs possible once again on Monday (record at MCI is 82 in
1986; record is 86 set in 1968 at STJ).

Zonal flow transitions more to southwest to northeast flow aloft as
a series of short waves phased with a more substantial trough across
southern Canada push east into the plains.  This could lead to
periodic showers and thunderstorms chances from Tuesday through the
remainder of the week as the roller coaster ride continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Gradient N winds will relax to 4-7 kts overnight as high
pressure settles southeast across the Lower Missouri River
Valley. As the surface high shifts east of the area, winds will
become E to SE around 12z and eventually S by 18z, with wind
magnitudes increasing to 12-14 kts with gusts to 20-22 kts
through the afternoon. Sky coverage will be limited to passing
high cirrus decks.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026


Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...WFO EAX
CLIMATE...BT