St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS63 KEAX 050854
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the KC metro and surrounding
  areas until 9 AM.

- Pop-up thunderstorms possible (25-35%) between 12-8 PM mainly
  north of I-70. No widespread severe weather expected.

- A break from the excessive heat to start the week with dry
  weather expected through Tuesday. Rain and warmer temperatures
  return on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered clouds are still lingering over the area early this
morning and winds are light. Dewpoint depressions are only 1 or
2 degrees and mixed with the smoke from the fireworks we have
low visibilities down to less than 1 mile. This is especially
true around the KC metro and, therefore, have issued a dense fog
advisory from now until 9 AM for areas near and in the metro.
As far as temperatures, we have stayed pretty warm with
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There is a cold front draped west to east across central IA this
morning. This front will work its way south towards MO later
today. This front will eventually stall near central MO this
afternoon. In addition to having this front over the area, we
will have another mid-level shortwave roll through the base of
the trough over us and bring us another chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon mainly after 12 PM and ending near
8 PM. This convection will likely be contained to northern MO
and mostly north of I-70 due to the track of the shortwave. Rain
chances over in that area are 25-35% and these storms will be
similar to our summer-time pop-up thunderstorms. Main threats
will be lightning and brief heavy rainfall and no widespread
severe weather is expected. Daytime highs will offer a quick
break from the heat with temperatures only reaching the upper
80s today with heat index values in the lower 90s with light
northerly winds. Tonight will be cooler with lows in the 60s.
We`ll have to watch for dense fog again overnight especially in
the areas that see rain later today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

For the start of this week, weather will be mostly quiet as a
ridge moves over the area. We will experience a gradual warm up
as we go into mid-week with highs reaching the lower 90s with
max heat index values in the lower 100s for Wednesday and
Thursday. Then, a pattern change occurs and a possible MCS moves
through the area Wednesday into Thursday as rain chances
increase to 50-60%. SPC doesn`t have us in an outlook at this
time, but CIPS/CSU machine learning probabilities have us
outlooked for the possibility of severe weather with that
system. There`s also a frontal passage late Thursday into Friday
that the ML probs may be catching onto as well. We`ll have to
continue to monitor the forecast as it gets closer. For now,
enjoy the break in the heat and convection!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

MVFR to LIFR ceilings can be expected through most of the night
as smoke and fog lingers around the TAF sites. Visibilities
could get under 1 SM tonight especially in valleys and low-lying
terrain. Visibility is expected to improve near 15z and VFR
ceilings will return. Winds remain light less than 10 knots
across the area through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ020-028-
     029-037.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-
     103>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria