St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS63 KEAX 052330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...00Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (10-15%) for drizzle tonight into tomorrow
  morning.

- Continued chances (50-75%) for below freezing temperatures
  overnight Friday into Saturday morning, generally east of
  US-63.

- Warmer, dry forecast through the weekend into the early half
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

At the synoptic scale, our weather pattern looks to remain
relatively benign. A cold front trailing a surface low over the
Great Lakes has continued pushing southward, bringing cooler
temperatures in the 50s and low, dense cloud cover for northern
MO/northeastern KS. The positively tilted mid-level trough over the
Great Lakes has continued to progress eastward, with mid-level
ridging building in behind the retreating trough. As the axis of the
trough remains slanted over central MO, continued chances for
drizzle/light rain persist into tonight with weak ascent from
vorticity maximums within the atmospheric flow interacting with
saturation in the low 0-1 km of the atmosphere. With overnight lows
in the low/mid 40s and high 30s, though, any impacts from this
drizzle will remain minimal. Chances (10-15%) for drizzle overnight
will subside with the progression of the trough further eastward
into the morning tomorrow.

As mid-level ridging and surface high pressure settles over the
region, temperatures will continue to remain cooler across the
forecast area, with high temperatures in the low 50s/upper 40s
during the daytime tomorrow. Residual low cloud cover could serve to
keep temperatures cooler than forecast during the daytime, with
further reinforcement of cold air from north/northwesterly winds
through the vertical profile prompting greater CAA. The persistence
of this cloud cover tomorrow evening into Saturday morning could
dictate how low temperatures are able to fall, which has some
impact on the potential for frost/freeze. As of now, guidance
still favors temperatures falling at/below frost criteria
areawide, with more focused chances for below freezing
temperatures generally east of US- 63 (50-70%). However, with
greater cloud cover, efficient radiational cooling will be
inhibited, which would keep overnight lows higher than forecast.
Otherwise, with cooler temperatures and light winds Friday
night into Saturday morning, conditions remain favorable for the
development of frost/freeze across the forecast area.

The continued progression of the trough towards the East Coast,
alongside another trough over the West Coast digging towards western
TX, the pattern looks to deamplify over the weekend. Surface high
pressure sliding off towards the east will shift winds out of the
south/southwest in the low levels, and clear skies will help
contribute to a warm up of temperatures back into the 60s by the
start of next week, with lows warming back into the 40s. The
atmospheric flow remains quasi-zonal through the early half of next
week, before a mid-level ridge begins to amplify across the western
half of the CONUS and a trough axis digs down from the northern
Plains by Wednesday. Aside from this shift in the synoptic pattern,
the remainder of the forecast looks to remain warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR ceilings have dropped into and through much of the area by
the beginning of this TAF period. Though IXD remains VFR, it
will quickly fall to MVFR with that deck right on its doorstep.
Expect MVFR to stick around through the TAF period, with the
potential for some IFR should ceilings fall far enough
overnight. Have suggested that potential in the TAF with sites
generally falling to around OVC010. Will monitor those cloud
deck trends. Possible we see some drizzle over the area, but not
confident enough in its persistence at this time to introduce
mentions. Will also monitor that trend. Winds to remain
predominantly out of the north and under 10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Curtis