St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

935
FXUS63 KEAX 221123
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow
  evening into late tomorrow night. Damaging wind gusts appears
  to be the primary threat.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on
  Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a mid/upper trough entering the West
Coast, with relatively high amplitude ridging downstream across
the Plains, with our CWA located toward the eastern edge of the
ridge. Current conditions across the region are characterized by
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s with breezy
southwesterly winds and a low level stratus deck building in
over the region from the southwest. The western trough will
push eastward today into the Intermountain West, with the mid
level ridge axis pushing east from the High Plains into the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley. While the mid level ridge axis
moving directly overhead would typically lead to warmer
temperatures, the stratus deck that has moved in this early
morning should linger into early afternoon and will likely lead
to slightly cooler high temps this afternoon compared to
yesterday (although still in the mid to upper 70s). 15 mph south
southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph are anticipated yet
again this afternoon.

Attention then turns to the severe threat on Thursday
(tomorrow). Broad longwave troughing will remain anchored
across the western CONUS, with the initial shortwave lifting to
the northeast across the Northern Plains and into Canada.
Meanwhile, a lower amplitude wave is progged to cross the
Southern Rockies and move into the South Central High Plains by
Thursday evening. This will yield increased southwesterly deep
layer flow over the CWA by Thursday afternoon. At the surface, a
strong surface cyclone should develop over northern North
Dakota by Thursday morning, moving northeastward into southern
Manitoba throughout Thursday afternoon, with an attendant cold
front extending southward into SE Nebraska and eastern Kansas
and linking with a secondary surface low south of Dodge City by
mid to late Thursday afternoon.

Strong southerly low level flow should develop out ahead of
these features across our CWA on Thursday afternoon, with gusts
up to 30 to 35 mph. Continued moisture advection should send dew
points into the lower 60s (perhaps even mid 60s across the KC
metro and points south and west), and with temperatures reaching
the upper 70s by mid afternoon, 00z HREF guidance suggests MU
CAPE above 2000 J/kg along the cold front to our west, with 1250
to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE over our CWA. This will be paired with
around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear, allowing for
relatively well organized updrafts capable of producing severe
weather.

Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front show substantial
convective inhibition in the form of a cap thanks to the EML.
Thus, seems likely that storms will have to fire along the cold
front where surface convergence is maximized. 06z CAMs suggest
that this should happen sometime around 3 pm along the front
from NW Iowa into SE Nebraska and into east central KS. Storms
may initially be discrete or semi discrete, but with deep layer
flow mostly parallel to the front, storms will likely grow
upscale relatively quickly into one or more linear segments as
they move eastward toward our CWA. The 06z HRRR depicts a well
organized line of storms extending from far SW Iowa, through SE
Nebraska, and south toward Wichita by around 7 pm. This line is
projected to move eastward into far NW Missouri after 7 pm, and
through the KC metro sometime in the 9 PM to midnight time
frame. Given the likely linear storm mode across our CWA,
damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard, but with
25 knots or so of 0-3 km bulk shear, cannot completely rule out
some QLCS mesovortices if the shear vector becomes normal to
the line. There will be a chance for at least some semi discrete
cells or embedded supercellular features within the line
earlier in the evening across our far eastern Kansas counties
and into far NW Missouri, which explains the 15% hatched hail
threat and the 5% tornado threat from the SPC convective
outlook across these areas.

In addition to the severe threat, locally moderate rainfall will
be possible with PWATs on the order of 1.25 to 1.5" along and
ahead of the front on Thursday evening/night. However, the
system looks overall progressive enough to limit rainfall
totals, with the most recent NBM run giving around a 25% to 45%
chance across the CWA for rainfall to exceed 1". That being
said, cannot rule out locally higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The northern portion of the western mid/upper trough is
projected to develop into a cutoff low near the US/Canada border
by Friday morning, and will slowly migrate to the northeast
through Sunday. Meanwhile, guidance suggests another mid/upper
trough entering into the Desert Southwest by late Saturday
night, crossing the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains on
Sunday and approaching the Ozarks by Sunday evening/night, with
strengthening southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading the
region. Meanwhile, an associated surface low should develop
across the OK Panhandle on Sunday morning, moving to the
northeast throughout the day on Sunday, with a warm front
lifting northward trough the CWA. This may bring another chance
for strong to severe storms, and the latest SPC Day 4-8 outlook
highlights the western half or so of the CWA within the 15% risk
area for severe weather. Locally moderate rainfall will be
possible again, as well.

Chance PoPs (30 to 40%) linger into Monday afternoon, with dry
conditions likely returning for Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR CIGs (OVC to BKN around 1500 ft) with 10 to 12 knot south
southwesterly winds continue at the terminals this morning.
Conditions should improve to VFR by early afternoon, with gusts
increasing to around 20 to 22 knots and continuing through the
afternoon hours before relaxing by this evening. By late in the
period (around 11z Thursday), winds should turn southerly winds
gusts increasing to around 22 knots once more, and MVFR CIGs
likely moving in after 12z Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW