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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 8:26 pm CDT May 7, 2026 |
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Tonight
 Slight Chance Showers
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Friday
 Decreasing Clouds
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Friday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Saturday
 Increasing Clouds
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Saturday Night
 Showers Likely
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Sunday
 Mostly Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Monday
 Sunny
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Monday Night
 Chance Showers
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| Lo 51 °F |
Hi 73 °F |
Lo 49 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 72 °F |
Lo 47 °F |
Hi 80 °F |
Lo 59 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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A chance of sprinkles between 3am and 5am, then a chance of sprinkles with a slight chance of showers after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 10%. |
Friday
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Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning. |
Friday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 49. West wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. |
Saturday
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Increasing clouds, with a high near 84. Light southwest wind becoming west southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Saturday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Sunday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 47. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 80. |
Monday Night
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A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tuesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 54. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 83. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 59. |
Thursday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
230
FXUS63 KEAX 072334
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Rain chances return Friday.
- 15-25% chance for North KC Metro
- 25-40% chance for South KC Metro
- 45-60% chance for far southern and eastern portions of the CWA
* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA
could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being hail.
* Warming trend continues through Saturday with widespread 75+
degree temperatures and a chance (~60%) of reaching 80F.
* Additional rain potential (70%) late Saturday PM/early Sunday AM.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026
Surface high pressure has led to quiet conditions across the region
today. Many areas, particularly along the MO/KS border, are on track
to see high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s later this
afternoon. Wind gusts around 25 kts have been noted throughout the
day as well. Several model soundings depict a well-mixed boundary
layer persisting through mid-evening tonight which will allow for
continued downward momentum transfer over the next several hours.
Later tonight, a shortwave will ripple through portions of the
Plains. For most, this will result in increasing cloud cover that
lasts for much of the day on Friday. North and along US-36, a brief
pocket of light rain could be possible (15-20%) Friday morning as a
surface front stalls along this corridor. This boundary will later
move south as a cold front, bringing rain chances to the Kansas City
metro by the early afternoon hours on Friday. Whether the metro is
able to reap the benefits of rain, however, is uncertain. Although
there is consensus on mid-level moisture, the same cannot be said
regarding the lower levels, thus raising questions about the quality
of the moisture column available tomorrow afternoon. Theta-E
advection struggles to spread northward behind surface high pressure
to the south, further suggesting that a replenishment of moisture
may not be in the cards. Given these concerns, PoPs have been
limited to 15-25% in the north metro and 25-40% in the south metro.
Up to about 0.1" of rain is possible, though this amount could be
higher if instability and moisture is able to surge further
northward.
Shifting focus to our southern and eastern periphery of counties,
greater rain and storm potential exists. In this vicinity lies an
area of greater frontogenetic forcing, moisture availability, CAPE,
and shear. Even so, convection that does occur would likely be
elevated due to low-level stability. Steeper lapse rates aloft could
be conducive for hail development in the strongest of storms.
Rainfall totals for this area are expected to be roughly 0.5", with
locally higher amounts possible with any isolated convective
downpours. Rain and storms should conclude by early/mid Friday
evening.
Surface high pressure builds back in rapidly in the wake of the
afternoon/evening cold frontal passage, reducing cloud cover and
shifting flow back out of the west/southwest, allowing temperatures
to warm into the mid/upper 70s. There is also a notable chance (60%)
of reaching 80F, especially along the MO/KS border. Ultimately, much
of the day on Saturday will be warm and pleasant.
The warming trend will then take a brief pause as another, stronger
cold front is expected to move through the CWA Saturday
evening/early Sunday morning. This front will provide another
opportunity for rain, primarily after dark, with the greatest
chances (>70%) occurring in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor.
Within this corridor, between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain is possible
with only a 10% chance of exceeding half an inch. Further north
and south, notable rain chances (>40%) also exist, though
confidence is more limited in these regions. Some rumbles of
thunder are possible with these showers as they move through,
but instability is quite poor with no clear destabilization
mechanism heading into the overnight hours. Thus, no severe
hazards are currently expected. Showers should clear out early
Sunday morning with comparatively cooler temperatures.
Interpretation of 500-mb cluster analysis charts increases
confidence in a calmer, warmer pattern beyond the weekend. Looking
toward the latter half of next week, while more variation is evident
in the clusters, ridging is expected to prevail, whether we continue
to sit downwind of the ridge or fall beneath the ridge axis.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026
VFR conditions prevailing through the forecast period. Currently
seeing some cirrus building in at terminals, with some
lingering diurnal cu present at downtown terminals. Seeing some
lingering gusts around the area, so have kept gusts persisting
at all terminals until sunset when mixing ceases. While
notable speed shear is expected in the low-levels at terminals
around 9-12z, not seeing a strong signal for significant
directional shear, so have left out mentions for LLWS. Expecting
clouds ceilings to build in tomorrow at 12z, and for winds to
shift out of the north/northwest at terminals near the end of
the forecast period. Greater confidence in the potential for
SHRA/TSRA lies further south and east of terminals, so have left
out mentions of weather.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...SPG
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