St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXUS63 KEAX 232350
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Overnight and Sunday morning fog again expected
  - Mainly central/southern Missouri and eastern/southeast Kansas

* Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue into
  early evening before subsiding
  - Mainly near and south of a line from Butler, MO to Kirksville, MO

* Dry and warmer Sunday and Memorial day before more unsettled
  conditions return Tuesday and on through the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

After morning fog burned off, conditions were largely quiet through
the morning hours as a weak cool front meandered through central and
northern Missouri. Regardless of which side of the weak front one
resided, temperatures rose into the 70s through the morning and
early afternoon. Said front was able to drift a bit more southward
than much of the early morning and morning hi-res guidance, pushing
right along the CWA border and just into the SGF CWA. Given the
angling of the front, this placed it roughly near a line from
Kirksville to Moberly to Sedalia and on back to the SW. Storms too
were able to blossom along the front just a bit sooner than morning
HRRR runs, but generally much ado about nothing given the
larger environment... While MLCAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg, little
opportunity for stronger storms with middling lapse rates
through the profile and <20 kts deep shear to work with. If
anything, some localized water issues may be in play with very
slow storm motions and training along the weak front/boundary.
Main risk for anyone outdoors will be lightning. This activity
will subside with the loss of peak heating and as the
accompanying mid-level wave slides eastward.

Into Sunday and Memorial day, surface high remains expected to
largely drive sensible weather. Initially, additional fog
development likely tonight into Sunday morning with ideal surface
ridge positioning and clearing skies. Most likely areas to be
largely S and E of the KC Metro proper, including much of central to
southern Missouri and eastern to southeast Kansas. Clear skies and
light winds highlight the remainder of Sunday, including the gradual
return of southerly winds. Expect highs Sunday a few/handful of
degrees warmer than today, into the lower 80s. Monday/Memorial day
will see quiet overall conditions continue, but with gradually
weakening surface high influence as it gets ushered E/NE.
Warming trend continues with highs a couple/few degrees warmer
than Sunday, into the mid 80s for most.

Tuesday onward remains on the unsettled side among the various
synoptic scale guidance with numerous, if not prolonged, chances for
showers and storms. General large scale pattern progression suggests
an Omega Block structure with a messy high over low (Rex like) sub-
setup over central CONUS. This tends to setup a stagnant pattern by
Tuesday and on through the rest of the work week. A weak mid-upper
level low will lift out of Texas/Southern Plains and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, which will present the first opportunity at
showers/storms. Environment appears not unlike today with middling
lapse rates and unsupportive shear yielding slow moving scattered
showers and non-severe thunder. This tends to continue off/on
through much of the rest of the work week, though confidence
gradually wanes as you move through the rest of the week given
varied deterministic depictions of the evolution and strength of
the mid-upper level low/trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Cloud cover dissipates through the evening as SHRA
continues to move eastward across central MO. Winds become light
and variable through the overnight before turning southerly
tomorrow morning. CAMs do hint at some patchy fog development
around sunrise; however, fog is more likely across central MO
(KVER, KDMO, KMBY, etc.) tomorrow morning in the wake of recent
rainfall.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel