St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KEAX 281132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat builds in over the weekend and persists through next
  week. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s by
  Sunday. Heat index values between 95 to 105 are expected
  Sunday through next week.


* Low-end nightly rain chances (15-25%) across far northern
  Missouri beginning Sunday night through Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The main forecast concern this period will be the return of the heat
and above normal temperatures to the area through the weekend into
next week. This heat will come courtesy of a upper level ridge that
currently resides over the Four Corners region. This feature will
begin to slide eastward and build over the the western Plains today.
This will provide local height rises allowing highs to warm a few
degrees despite surface high pressure in place. Expect highs in the
mid 80 to near 90. By Saturday, the local area comes further under
the purview of the ridge as the axis moves into the central Plains.
In addition, strong WAA will get underway at the surface. This will
allow highs to rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Sunday, the ridge
axis moves directly over the local area. This coupled with continued
strong WAA will drive highs into the mid to upper 90s.

The local area then remains under the influence of the upper level
ridge through the duration of next week as it remains in control
from the southeastern CONUS back into the central and southern
Plains. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 90s. While
temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal, dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s through Tuesday will keep heat index values Sunday
through Tuesday in the 95-102 degree range. By Wednesday and
Thursday, dewpoints begin to rise a bit into the upper 60s to near
70, yielding some heat index values approaching 105. It is this
period that may need to be monitored for heat products.

Otherwise, conditions look to remain mostly dry the next week. The
one exception will be for areas of northern Missouri where slight
chance (15-25%) PoPs will be possible nightly from Sunday night
through Wednesday night. This will come as models suggest periodic,
weak upper level disturbances will try to push into the upper ridge.
The recent model runs have trended drier so confidence is low in
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd. Bkn cigs around 10kft
are fcst thru 15Z at STJ otrw...just scattered high clouds are
expected thru the pd at all the TAF sites. Winds will be out of
the ESE/SE btn 5-10kts thru this TAF cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73