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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 2:21 am CDT Jul 30, 2026 |
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Today
 Chance T-storms
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Friday
 Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Friday Night
 Mostly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny
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Saturday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Clear
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Monday
 Sunny
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| Hi 86 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today
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A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Tonight
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Friday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a chance of showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South southeast wind 7 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. North northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 65. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 86. |
Sunday Night
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Clear, with a low around 66. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 87. |
Monday Night
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Clear, with a low around 67. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 89. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 69. |
Wednesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
766
FXUS63 KEAX 301132
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected early this
morning. Isolated precipitation chances continue through the
day along and west of the I-35/I-49 corridors.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms expected overnight
(Thu into Fri) as a thunderstorm complex moves through the
area. Heavy downpours and gusty winds are expected; however,
storms are expected to move through the area fairly quickly
exiting just after 8am.
- Additional showers and storms are possible Friday evening
south of I-70. There is a potential that a few of these storms
may be strong to severe; however, this is highly conditional
on activity Friday morning.
- Substantially cooler conditions expected Saturday with highs
in the low to mid 80s forecasted. Temperatures warm back into
the 90s next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Similar programming to last night for the weather pattern. A surface
high over northern IL has advanced a little further south and a bit
further west. Likewise, the H500 high over NM continues to send
ridge running shortwaves around the system. Once again, these
shortwaves trigger showers and thunderstorms across the Sand Hills
and the foothills of the Rockies. Additional convection is
anticipated across central and eastern KS through the overnight.
Like Wednesday morning, the surface high is expected to limit the
ability for showers and storms to migrate eastward. Expectation are
for storms to approach far eastern KS before weakening as they
approach the MO/KS state line. A few sprinkles and showers are
expected to make it into the I-29/I-49 corridors through the early
morning.
Lee cyclogenesis across western KS catalyzed by a notable upper
level shortwave will be the primary influence of our weather through
the day. Broad scale southerly flow once again advects warm air and
moisture into the region. CAMs show a combination of turbulent
surface convergence (largely due to some variability in low level
winds), isentropic ascent, and some mesoscale upper level lift from
smaller H500 perturbations. This keeps isolated chances for showers
and storms around through much of the day for places west of the I-
35/I-49 corridors. Most likely we will see something similar to
yesterday where isolated to scattered light showers move through the
area through the daytime hours.
Through Thursday afternoon, another lee cyclone develops across NW
Nebraska in the more progressive flow across the Upper Midwest. A
cold front extends from this system and the frontogenetic energy
helps enhance the smaller wave anticipated over eastern KS. Low
level southerly flow accelerates advecting more warm air and
moisture into the area ahead of the systems arrival. The complex of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to work its way into the
region after midnight. Guidance continues to maintain fairly
progressive movement of the thunderstorm complex with it exiting the
region just past 8am. Elevated dew points and PWATs around 2 inches
continue to favor an environment for torrential downpours; however,
the progressive movement of the storms does limit several
hydrological concerns. The trade off is the faster storm motions
bring in the potential for damaging winds. The convective
environment shows just enough shear and instability to be a bit
concerned for an isolated strong to severe storm with the most
likely hazard being damaging wind gusts.
Unfortunately, the passing front does not do too much to curtail
heat for the day Friday. Cyclogenesis persists across the I-80
corridor and turns winds westerly advecting hot air from the
foothills of the Rockies into the area. Temperatures along and south
of I-70 rise into the 90s. Those north of the MO River will see a
more NW flow of the winds which lowers highs into the mid to upper
80s across far northern MO. Additional showers and storms are
possible Friday afternoon as a synoptic scale front follows behind
the overnight system. Warm air advection from the west looks to
destabilize the region and lead to the development of additional
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Depending on how much
the atmosphere is able to recharge, some robust convection may
develop. The likely area for these potentially stronger storms is
across SW and Central MO. It is plausible for some strong to severe
storms with heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail being the likely
hazards. Behind the synoptic front, temperatures fall substantially
with highs Saturday expected to be in the low to mid 80s.
The extended forecast continues to show eventual breakdown of the
large H500 ridge over the SW CONUS. This opens up the pattern to
potentially become a little more active next week as the more active
zonal flow which has resided across the northern CONUS for the past
several days is able to progress further into the interior CONUS.
Likewise, southerly flow reopens and sends temperatures back upward
into the 90s next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Areas of SHRA to the west are expected to gradually envelope the
area over the next couple of hours. So far, impacts have been
fairly limited, but potential +RA may dip conditions temporally.
SHRA/TSRA chances linger through much of the morning with
additional chances later in the period. The greatest chances of
storms is during the overnight particularly at the tail end of
the period. Winds remain generally southeast between 8-12 knots.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel
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