St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS63 KEAX 270412
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1112 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible tonight - Wednesday afternoon
  south of I-70.

- Better chances for showers and storms later this week with
  above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance moving into
southern MO this afternoon from northern AR. This will advect a more
humid airmass northeastward around the circulation and into the
southern half of MO. With weak forcing associated with the upper-
level disturbance and a more humid airmass being drawn into the
area, there may be a few showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, south
of I-70 tonight and through the day tomorrow. Have added some slight
chance PoPs to account for this potential. For later in the week, a
slightly stronger system will move into the region from the west. As
better moisture advects into the area ahead of this system, the
chances for showers and storms will increase, especially over
eastern KS and western MO. The threat of severe weather with any of
this activity looks very low as there is limited shear given the
weak flow aloft. Instability is also not overly impressive,
especially for this time of year, and that will tend to limit the
potential for strong to severe storms as well. While there are
higher precipitable water values present, the isolated to scattered
nature and relatively weak convection overall, will limit flash
flood potential as well.

High temperatures for the next week look to be consistently in
the 80s, about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.
While there will be upper-level ridging through the middle of
the country, this will be tempered by the disturbances that
will bring increased moisture, cloud cover, and the isolated to
scattered convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Areas of fog may try to develop in the pre-dawn hours east of KC
in the more moist airmass. These lower ceilings are expected to
burn off throughout the morning hours. Easterly winds are
expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT