St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS63 KEAX 100400
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1100 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low end chances (20-40%) for showers and storms this evening
  into tonight. Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler tomorrow behind a cold front, with temperatures warming
  once more Monday and Tuesday.

- Record high temperatures may be possible on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Current H5 analysis shows northwesterly mid/upper flow across
Missouri and Kansas east of ridging across the far western CONUS and
south and east of longwave troughing from Ontario all the way into
Appalachia. At the surface, an east-west oriented cold front is
analyzed across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and is currently
moving southward toward our region. Strong heating this afternoon
ahead of the approaching cold front should send afternoon highs into
the mid 80s for most locations. As the front moves into the CWA
later this afternoon into this evening, convergence along the front
and increased forcing from an approaching subtle shortwave trough
across the central High Plains should help generate isolated to
scattered high based showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Severe
weather is generally not anticipated, but the 12z SPC HREF does
show a corridor of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE, steep lapse
rates, and around 35 knots of deep layer shear, which may be
capable of producing some relatively well organized updrafts. A
few isolated showers may linger into the overnight period.
Colder and drier air arrives from the north behind the front
late tonight into Sunday morning, with afternoon highs for
Sunday forecast to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with
some mid to high level cloud cover lingering into Sunday
afternoon.

Surface high pressure builds in across the region by Sunday evening,
yielding clearing skies and calm winds. This should allow for solid
radiational cooling Sunday night into Monday morning, sending
overnight lows into the mid to upper 40s. By Monday, the high
amplitude eastern trough should finally push further east, with a
590 dam H5 high developing over the Desert Southwest and attendant
mid/upper ridging building over much of the western half of the
CONUS. This will bring warmer temperatures to the region, with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s with low level flow returning to
southwesterly.

On Tuesday, models project a shortwave trough descending out of the
Canadian Plains into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley with an accompanying surface cyclone developing over
Minnesota. This will yield increased south southwesterly flow,
with winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph, and will also yield ample
warm air and moisture advection, with highs forecast to reach
the mid to upper 80s and dew points rising into the mid 50s
(upper 50s along and south of Interstate 70). A cold front
should move through the region from NW to SE sometime late
Tuesday night as the system progresses to the east. There may be
a window Tuesday afternoon/evening with a pairing of modest
instability and decent deep layer shear to present a marginal
and conditional severe threat, but for now the threat is not
enough to justify a 15% severe risk from SPC.

Cooler temperatures are likely for Wednesday behind the front, but
temperatures should rebound quickly into Thursday and Friday as
mid/upper ridging builds in over the region, with highs forecast in
the 90s by Friday (25th and 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 88
and 98 degrees, respectively). The current forecast high at MCI
on Friday is 93 degrees, which is 2 degrees above the record
(91 degrees set in 1941).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR thru end of TAF period at all four terminals. BKN conditions
expected to persist overnight and into the early portions of Sunday
before cloud cover gradually lessens from the north. Sunday evening,
winds will begin to transition to out of the south/southwest.
Consequently, variable winds expected to begin between 00Z and 02Z
before winds settle out of the south/southwest after the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Macko