St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS63 KEAX 290853
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms through the early weekend.

- Temperatures remain warm, before cooling down by the early
  weekend.

- Wet, cooler pattern by next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The current cold front situated just NW of MO will continue to sag
southward before becoming quasi-stationary over northern/central MO
by the afternoon tomorrow. Despite earlier convection along the cold
front, an increasingly inhibited environment with an unfavorable
synoptic environment has decreased PoPs through the overnight. High
temperatures behind the front fall to the high 60s/low 70s,
while areas south of the front remain around the 80s. Continued
spread in HREF members on temperature solutions during the
afternoon (~4-6 degF spreads) remains across the northern half
of MO. However, this corridor of spread narrows through the
course of the day, increasing confidence in the position of the
front eventually settling over central MO. South of the boundary
closer to the US-50 corridor, low- level southerly flow will
create a narrow corridor of elevated instability by the late
afternoon. Capping will prevent any initiation earlier on in the
day, but guidance increasingly indicates the erosion of the cap
by the late afternoon. However, our other ingredients for
thunderstorm development (vertical wind shear and lift) remain
marginal at best, with better synoptic forcing (a shortwave, a
LLJ, etc.) remaining displaced from the boundary`s location.
This creates a setup where, although convection is not out of
the question with surface convergence along the boundary by the
mid-late afternoon, the risk of severe activity remains low. By
this evening, low-level WAA out ahead of a shortwave will
reinvigorate chances for precipitation (40-60%) as the boundary
lifts back northward. Convective guidance resolves this activity
as widespread scattered showers, with building convective
inhibition as the nocturnal boundary layer establishes itself
despite increasingly favorable shear profiles and elevated
instability. This activity looks to persist through early Friday
morning/afternoon as the boundary stalls out once again over
northern MO, with overall PoPs around 15-30% through the
afternoon and evening.

A stout mid-level ridge persists over the eastern third of the
CONUS, keeping the forecast area within the periphery of its flow.
Another shortwave following the atmospheric flow northward from the
southern Plains will increase PoPs (70-90%) Friday evening,
bolstered by dCVA at the base of an oncoming mid-level trough. This
low amplitude trough will act to push the mid-level ridge axis
further off towards the east. However, persistent low-level WAA and
dCVA south of I-70 will keep PoPs around 30-50% through Saturday
afternoon/evening, which isn`t great news for any folks looking to
go out for Halloween. In (slightly?) better news, surface winds out
of the E/SE coupled with increased cloud cover will help
temperatures to fall to the high 60s/low 70s areawide by Saturday,
which (although still seasonally high) is much better than continued
80 degree temperatures into November. By Sunday, PoPs look to clear
out, with semi-zonal flow as the ridge axis bends off towards the
northwest and a mid-level trough over the western CONUS begins its
trek eastward. Models continue to indicate the development of a
deepening surface cyclone over the central CONUS, which will
continue to leave the beginning of next week looking wet as the
cyclone lifts off towards the northeast. Synoptic model guidance
begins to deviate by the later part of the forecast period on the
location of the trough axis over the central CONUS, and whether the
trough closes off or continues to propagate along the
atmospheric flow. This leads to greater deviations in PoPs by
next Wednesday, which decreases overall confidence in solutions
for precipitation in the extended forecast. Greater advection of
dry, cooler air from the northwest behind the initial surface
cyclone will continue to lower temperatures into the early days
of November to the high 50s/low 60s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front approaches the region through the overnight.
Ongoing RA/TSRA ahead of this boundary is expected to weaken as
it approaches the area; though there are still chances for it
to affect STJ. There remains considerable uncertainty with
timing and storm coverage tomorrow with the potential for
precipitation existing for most of the day. RA/TSRA is most
likely during the afternoon and evening, but an isolated SHRA in
the morning is not implausible. Kept the PROB30 time periods to
the highest confidence in potential RA/TSRA. Winds shift from
southerly ahead of the front to easterly behind it as it moves
southward. The front is expected to stall around the MO river;
thus IXD should not experience as significant of a wind shift.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Pesel