St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS63 KEAX 280531
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Main focus for severe weather and heavy rain today is across
  southern and central MO with all hazards (large hail, damaging
  winds, and tornadoes) possible. Non-severe showers and storms
  are possible across northern MO.

- Tonight, a cold front will bring much cooler across the
  region.

- Rest of the week, expect below normal temperatures mostly dry
  conditions. The risk for hazardous weather is very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Today and Tonight, early afternoon satellite imagery and surface
observations showed a cold front passing through the region,
with temperatures in the 50s and northwest wind behind this
front. Meanwhile, ahead of the cold front, temperatures are
near 80F with southwest winds. An outflow boundary from the
early morning storms was laid out west-to-east south of I-70.
The warm, unstable air ahead of the cold front and south of the
outflow boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. We expect that these storms will be severe, but
most favored area for storms is south and east of the forecast
area, from central Missouri extending toward Illinois. HiRes
guidance shows storm develop in this region early this
afternoon, with Updraft Helicity swaths supporting the
environmental conditions that these storms will indeed be
supercells.

One question regarding severe weather is how long these storms
will remain discrete before congealing into a line. If this
happens more quickly, then the hail and strong tornado threat
transitions more to wind and weak tornadoes. Regardless, the
majority of the storms develop east of the forecast area, so our
severe weather threat is across the southern tiers of counties
from now until late afternoon. Later this evening in the wake of
the cold front, there could be some scattered showers or
thunderstorms, but these will not produce severe weather or
heavy rain. Instead, expect northwest winds with cooler and
drier air moving across the region.

Tuesday through Monday, no hazardous weather is expected at this
time. On Tuesday an upper level wave will bring some rain across
the MO/AR line, but this will lack instability, and the
heaviest rain will be south of the state border. On Wednesday
northwest flow will lead to upper level subsidence and surface
high pressure, meaning light winds and sunny skies. Another weak
wave will move through Thursday bringing low chances (10 to 20
percent) for rain, but any amounts should be less than a quarter
of an inch. Looking ahead, high pressure will remain in control
with dry conditions and light northerly winds on Friday and
Saturday. As the surface high advances toward the Tennessee
River Valley, southerly winds will bring in slightly warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

General MVFR/low VFR expected through the forecast period.
Lingering gusts around terminals are expected to continue
falling off this evening by 8z. Ceilings anticipated to lower
at southerly terminals through the morning hours, before lifting
to low VFR through the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain
generally northerly through the period, sustained around 5-10
kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CDB/SPG