St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS63 KEAX 042355
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
555 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and patchy fog possible Thursday morning.

- Showers and storms return Thursday night into Friday morning, some
of which may be strong to severe.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday afternoon into the
overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible.

- A break from active weather is expected over the weekend ahead of
a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

With the eastward progression of a mid-level wave, rain has largely
discontinued across the area as of early this afternoon. Drizzly
conditions may persist through the evening, but meaningful,
accumulating precipitation is not expected. The mid-level shortwave
is anticipated to exit the region entirely by early Thursday
morning, leaving us under an upper-level ridge, albeit only for a
short time. This will allow for a break in precipitation during the
day on Thursday as south/southwesterly flow at the surface warms
much of the region up into the 60s. Patchy fog is possible during
the early morning hours on Thursday courtesy of near calm surface
winds and an inversion near the surface, though this is expected to
burn off by mid to late morning as surface winds pick up.

Late Thursday afternoon, a low/mid-level jet will begin to intensify
ahead of a mid/upper-level cyclone. This will draw additional
moisture into the region and will allow for showers and storms to
form late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and weak instability may allow for some of these storms
to produce large hail and gusty winds. Otherwise, not particularly
concerned about this threat.

Closing in on Friday, the aforementioned mid/upper-level system
looks to split into two distinct low-pressure centers during the
morning hours. The leading system will adopt a negative tilt as it
is ejected eastward through the Plains while the trailing low will
dive into the Four Corners region. The leading upper-level system`s
affiliated surface low is forecast to sit along the west-central
portion of the NE/KS border around sunrise Friday morning with a
cold front draping into west Texas. Considerable theta e advection
on Friday will place us comfortably within the warm sector and open
the door for destabilization over the course of the day. Further
intensification of the low/mid-level jets will also result in a well-
sheared environment (>40 kt 0-6km bulk shear), supporting organized
convection ahead of the cold front. Low LCLs and ample helicity also
appear to be present in the early evening hours on Friday which has
implications for the tornadic threat. Current thinking is that
discrete cells capable of all severe hazards may develop in the late
afternoon Friday before growing upscale along the cold front.
However, Friday`s severe threat remains somewhat conditional. It is
unclear how well the environment will recover following morning
showers/convection, and several models continue to depict widespread
cloud cover during the daytime hours. Given the high-shear
environment, solar heating may be required to reach an appropriate
shear/instability balance. That said, any storms that do develop are
expected to move rapidly in a mean wind environment of ~50 knots.

The weekend looks to be much calmer. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler (mid 50s) on Saturday before peaking in the mid/upper 70s on
Monday. The next chance for impactful weather appears on Tuesday. To
our southwest, a mid-level jet will intensify along the edge of the
aforementioned "trailing" low. To the north, a surface low will
traverse east, dragging a cold front through the CWA. This boundary
may interact with an area of greater instability and shear to
produce strong to severe storms, particularly south of I-70. Details
are limited and confidence remains low for this later severe threat,
but it will be monitored closely over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR conditions should continue through tonight into Thursday
morning at the KC metro terminals (although some periods of
LIFR may be possible), with CIGs on the order of 500 feet or so
and VIS ranging anywhere from 1SM to 4SM before improving to
MVFR by around 15z Thursday morning (CIGs improving to above
2000 ft by around 18z Thursday). At STJ, currently MVFR
conditions, with IFR likely to return by later this evening.
Conditions should improve once more to MVFR by late Thursday
morning and then to VFR by around 20z Thursday. Light and
variable winds are anticipated through the majority of the
period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...BMW