St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS63 KEAX 111201
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
701 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Active weather pattern continues across the region, through the
  weekend and into middle of next week.

* Severe storm threat through the weekend continues to appear low,
  with better chances appearing possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

* With numerous chances for rain into/through middle of next
  week, river and areal flooding may be realized across portions
  of the area, but highly dependent on where areas of heavier
  rainfall occur/overlap over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

To this point in the overnight, much quieter and drier compared to
previous overnight. But, that is gradually coming to an end for at
least portions of the forecast area at the time of this discussion.
With the eastward departure of northern stream shortwave and
attendant/trailing high pressure, southerly flow has begun to
reestablish over the Central Plains. Aside from general warm air and
moisture advection, a 35-45+ kt LLJ has allowed elevated showers and
thunderstorms to blossom over portions of north-central to northeast
Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Much of this activity had been well
advertised by CAMs and currently unfolding largely as anticipated,
including more of a NE/ENE trajectory once established and
influenced by more of the mean flow. Through the remainder of the
overnight and into Saturday morning, LLJ will continue to establish
more of a SW orientation, helping gradually push into and across the
NW/N portions of the forecast area. There is some lower-end/casual
concern for localized flooding issues as this activity overspreads
the area, especially with pockets of MRMS 3-hr estimates of >2.5"
and 1-hr estimates >1.5" over portions of Kansas. That would
approach or exceed the rejective RFC 3-hr and 1-hr FFG and would be
most likely in areas where some training may be seen as the LLJ
angles into the area. Fortunately, though, the pockets of heavier
rain are expected to mainly be displaced northward from the areas of
heavier rain Thursday night/Friday morning. Activity eventually
lifts into Iowa and across Northern Missouri through the morning,
meanwhile surface boundary lifts back northward as a warm front.

Additional storm development may be seen later this
afternoon/evening and into the overnight. Confidence is greatest in
the overnight hours with anticipated 45-50+ kt LLJ. Elevated nature
limits severe potential, but given recent rains localized flooding
would be possible. Lesser confidence in any late afternoon/evening
activity, but carries a bit of a conditional threat in that if some
can develop in a weakly capped environment, they may carry hail/tor
threat if near the warm front. Working against that though is
focused lift and overall weak to marginal wind profiles for
organization. This would appear to be most possible over far NW
Missouri and into Nebraska and SW Iowa. CAMs are far from unanimous
in the afternoon/evening potential. This too is noted within new SPC
Day 1 Outlook.

By Sunday morning, mid-upper level pattern over central CONUS will
be solidly southwesterly while a cutoff low moves inland over
central/northern California. Synoptic guidance is in good agreement
of another surging plume of moisture lifting northward along with a
shortwave riding up through the SW flow. This will overspread
showers and general thunder across the area. Severe threat remains
quite low here given the widespread and prolonged nature, helping
keep profiles unsupportive overall. Some training concern here keeps
flooding a concern, though widespread issues remain unlikely as
activity does progressively get pushed eastward as surface low
develops and moves drier into the Plains.

Monday looks mostly dry at this point with aforementioned surface
low and dry air intruding at least western portions of the area. But
ongoing WAA also begins to set the table for better strong/severe
storm chances as early as Monday night/overnight, Tuesday, and
Wednesday. Significant capping puts the kibosh on Monday evening,
but possible a storm or two develops in the overnight as cap weakens
and LLJ increases. Elevated nature would yield primarily a hail
threat. Better potential appears Tuesday with cap notably weaker,
depicted approaching shortwave, strong mid-level lapse rates, and
generally supportive shear magnitude and profiles. There remain
discrepancies in how synoptic guidance evolves surface low
development and trajectory though, so details remain difficult to be
confident in. A somewhat similar story possible Wednesday as well.
Suffice it to say all hazards may be possible Tuesday/Wednesday.
This too is reflected within SPC Days 4/5 Outlooks highlighting much
of or significant portions of the CWA with 15% probabilities
(Equivalent to SPC Slight). By Thursday, activity looks to clear out
as western trough moves out across the Plains, giving the area a bit
of a break, but may not last long with depictions of next western
CONUS trough dropping down Friday and across central CONUS next
weekend.

Throughout this forecast period temperatures tend to reside on the
warm side, tempered some by the showers/storms and cloud cover, with
persistent southerly surface flow in place. Expect highs in the
70s this weekend and highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s through
majority of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A fairly messy and somewhat uncertain TAF period is in store for
the sites. At onset, shower and thunderstorm activity beginning
to spread in from NW Kansas to NW Missouri, primarily affecting
KSTJ and clipping KMCI. That in addition to generally MVFR
ceilings across the area with likely transition to IFR ceilings
over the coming hours. Improvement expected as precipitation
activity drifts E/ENE through the day and degree of diurnal
mixing is achieved, lifting ceilings to MVFR by this afternoon
and VFR late afternoon/early evening. Low probability for
additional scattered TSRA this afternoon/evening, but not high
enough to introduce any prevailing mentions. Toward the very end
of the period, showers/storms begin to overspread the area
again, but currently anticipate to largely hold off until after
12z Sunday, so no mentions within this issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis