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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 6:02 pm CDT May 4, 2026
 
Overnight

Overnight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly after 4pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Chance
Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers.  Cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light  after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Chance
Showers
Wednesday

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers before 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
Showers
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy
Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Sunny
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Partly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Mostly Sunny
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Mostly Clear
Lo 51 °F Hi 60 °F Lo 44 °F Hi 59 °F Lo 39 °F Hi 69 °F Lo 50 °F Hi 75 °F Lo 48 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Overnight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. North northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 74.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
732
FXUS63 KEAX 050459
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/Severe storms expected tonight, with primary hazards
  being large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures and several additional rounds of
  showers/storms expected through Thursday.

- Brief lull in activity, before returning over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Through the day, dewpoint temperatures have managed to climb
into the low-mid 50s across the area as clearer skies are
allowing ample sunshine to increase temperatures to the high
70s/low 80s and generate instability at the surface around
1500-2000 J/kg. While greater moisture still remains further
south in south/south-central OK, our ingredients for severe
weather tonight are beginning to come together this afternoon.
As of 18z, WPC surface analysis drapes the cold front over far
northwestern MO. Through the day, the cold front will continue
to push southeastward as moisture is funneled from southwesterly
winds between high pressure to the southeast and a developing
surface low over the OK panhandle to the west/southwest. After
sunset, CAMs initiate discrete convection along the cold front
around 8-10pm. With environmental effective bulk shear around
35-40 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8 degC/km,
storms that form would be capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind during initial development. Through the night,
storms will eventually congeal into a larger line of storms as
the shortwave progresses eastward, with a greater wind threat
as the night progresses. It is expected that these storms will
decrease in severity as they fall behind the cold front through
the night and into the morning tomorrow. With this nighttime
activity, there is some threat of minor flooding with any storms
that train over an area for a prolonged time, especially in
areas with poor drainage. However, the greater concern for
flooding would be with more prolonged rainfall, which is
something that will need to be monitored in the next few days
with continued chances for additional rainfall.

Temperatures tomorrow will remain lower in the wake of the cold
front, with forecast highs only expected to rise to the high
50s under prevailing north/northeasterly winds. Continued
synoptic ascent from the passing shortwave will cause showers to
persist across the area through the morning and afternoon
tomorrow as the surface low and low-level shortwave trough
continue to progress east. The greater axis of precipitation
will remain off towards the southeast with better synoptic
forcing from the shortwave, but there will still be greater
moisture over our area for efficient precipitation with any
showers/storms, with forecast PWAT values around 1-1.5 inches
along the I-70 corridor south. With continued precipitation
chances as another low-level shortwave lifts across MO during
the day Wednesday, alongside greater forecast PWAT, there is
continued concern for river/small stream flooding, especially if
precipitation falls over areas that have previously seen
rainfall. Like previously mentioned, this concern will need to
be monitored with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

After this initial period of activity, amplified low-level ridging
will keep conditions dry going into Thursday. Continued
disturbances in overall atmospheric flow from an upper level
trough situated over the Hudson Bay will bring another shortwave
to the area by Friday, which will increase chances for
precipitation going into the late afternoon and evening. Greater
chances (10-30%) for precipitation exist further eastward along
better synoptic forcing from the low-level shortwave as it
ridges along the mean flow. By Saturday/Sunday, a series of
shortwaves will keep probabilities for precipitation higher
(30-50%) through the weekend, before upper-level ridging
advances from the west and keeps the end of the forecast period
dry. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 70s/low 80s
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is moving south, and is currently between KMKC and
KIXD. A line of SHRA/TSRA has developed along and just behind
the wind shift and will impact both of those sites through 07Z
or 08Z. There will be a break before an area of light
rain/showers (VFR) spread eastward across all sites through the
morning and into the afternoon. KSTJ may stay north of the rain.
North northeast winds will initially gust up to 20kts and then
settle down to around 10kts by 12Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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