St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXUS63 KEAX 310742
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
242 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening
  into the overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough moving northeast
through Oklahoma currently. Forcing from this shortwave should
result in an increase in coverage of showers late this morning/early
this afternoon across eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri. This
activity then lifts to the north and east with time through the
afternoon and evening hours. While it doesn`t look like a washout,
it does look like there will be isolated to scattered showers across
the area at some point through the day today/ this evening. So
anyone doing outside activities may need an umbrella with them.
Fortunately, the chances for storms looks low with only weak
instability available. Overnight, as that shortwave starts to
move northeast of the area and we move into the subsident
regime, showers will decrease in coverage and eventually come to
an end. Sunday, shortwave ridging builds through the area and
that should keep the area dry as the next system moves through
the Western US.

The Monday system is much stronger than the previous shortwaves.
Strong southerly flow ahead of this system will result in very
strong moisture transport into the area. In fact, precipitable water
values are at the max values for the NAEFS climatological period
across northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. So this is 4
to 5 standard deviations above normal for this time of year.
Additionally, there is potential eastern Kansas and western Missouri
are in the left front quadrant of the upper-jet moving into the area
ahead of the strong shortwave. Strong flow through much of the
troposphere will result in strong wind shear, potentially in excess
of 50kts. Instability, though weak, is available in this strongly
forced environment and we continue to have the potential for a high-
shear, low-CAPE severe weather event. There are a couple scenarios
that cold unfold here. Storms could develop in the warm sector over
eastern Kansas, well ahead of the front. This looks possible,
though unlikely, based on some of the forecast soundings in
that area showing minimal or no CIN by the afternoon hours. A
more plausible scenario is that storms develop along or just
ahead of the front/ dryline well west of the area and then
track east into the area later in the evening or overnight
hours. There could also be some combination of both of these
with storms developing earlier in the warm sector, then a line
of storms moving into the area in association with the front,
though this also seems less likely. Any one of these would have
the potential for strong to severe storms and given the strong
kinematics, strong to damaging winds will be the most likely
hazard. Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as
well if a mature line of storms moves into the area. The latest
Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe
weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri. A slight risk
clips the extreme southwestern portions of the forecast area.

In the wake of this system, temperatures trend closer to normal for
the later half of next week. Normal highs are in the upper 50s so
even though we cool down, highs still look to be a few degrees above
normal with highs forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light rain across the region is expected to gradually lift north
Saturday morning. Low levels in the atmosphere tries to dry out,
but lift in the mid levels remains and may result in sprinkles
continuing through at least the afternoon hours Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT