St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS63 KEAX 141111
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
611 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday:

    - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible late
      Sunday morning - early afternoon.

    - High winds are likely Sunday morning through Sunday night
      with wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. Some areas may see wind
      gusts near or exceeding 58 mph.

    - Wintry precipitation likely as cold air surges into the
      area behind a passing cold front Sunday afternoon into
      Sunday night, with the potential for periods of
      significantly reduced visibility.

    - Bitterly cold wind chill values expected late Sunday night
      into Monday morning with values below zero for most of
      the region.

* Warmer conditions build into the region for the later half of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Have coordinated the extension of the high wind watch farther
east across northern Missouri. Core of 850 HPA winds appears to
be focused across Iowa with 55 knots towards the top of the
mixed layer behind the cold front spilling into northern
Missouri. Considered a winter storm watch for potential blizzard
conditions for portions of northern Missouri; however,
confidence is not high enough at this point that visibilities
would be 1/4 mile or less with only an inch or two of snow
expected. With that said, it will still be unpleasant across
northern Missouri Sunday night into Monday morning with strong
winds leading to significant reductions of visibility in falling
and blowing snow and wind chills falling below zero.

&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current H5 analysis depicts 50 to 70 knot west
northwesterly flow aloft, with some high level cloud cover
traversing northwest to southeast across the area this evening
within the mid/upper flow. At the surface, a 1023 mb center of
high pressure is sliding into central Minnesota, with a relaxed
pressure gradient across our region yielding light and variable
winds. Temperatures this morning should drop into the mid to
upper 30s with some passing high clouds continuing. Mid/upper
flow becomes zonal by late Saturday morning, with strong theta e
advection commencing on Saturday afternoon as a warm front
lifts south to north through the CWA, increasing southerly low
level flow and increasing temperatures into the low to mid 70s
for areas south of the Missouri River, and increasing dew points
from the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning to the 40s by
Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday night, a potent mid/upper trough is progged to dig
across the Rockies, continuing to deepen as it enters the
Plains by early Sunday morning, with an associated sub 992 mb
surface low centered somewhere in the vicinity of NW Missouri
into central Iowa by around 6 AM Sunday morning and a trailing
cold front extending to the south southwest through NW Missouri
into far eastern Kansas. Continued theta e advection out ahead
of the surface low and cold front should send dew points into
the low 50s with 20 mph south southwesterly winds gusting to 30
mph. Uncertainties still remain with respect to the timing,
strength, evolution, track of the system, etc., but as this
system makes its way through the region, it will bring the
threat for multiple hazards. These hazards will be discussed
individually below.

Strong to Severe Storms:

Pre frontal showers and thunderstorms are probable given strong
synoptic scale ascent out ahead of the upper trough with rapid mid
level height falls, as well as a line of showers and thunderstorms
along/slightly ahead of the cold front. Instability may be a bit
lacking, but most guidance suggests at least 500 J/kg of MU CAPE,
with isolated pockets of higher CAPE, and with very strong deep
layer shear, there will be a chance for strong to marginally severe
storms capable of quarter size hail and 60+ mph wind gusts. However,
better severe chances should remain east southeast of the CWA.

Very Strong Non-thunderstorm Winds:

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold front, with sustained
winds on the order of 30 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 to 55 mph, and
potentially higher. Strongest winds should be across far NE Kansas
and NW Missouri. As such, a high wind watch has been issued for
these locations from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday. This high wind
watch/warning may be extended further to the southeast if confidence
in reaching criteria increases. Elsewhere, a wind advisory is very
likely going to be necessary.

Snow and Reduced Visibility:

Temperatures will plummet behind the passing cold front, with
temperatures in KC falling from the upper 50s at ~10 am to the mid
30s by early to mid afternoon. CAMs indicate a there may be a period
of no precipitation immediately behind the front, with precipitation
wrapping around the surface low moving into the CWA by early
afternoon and continuing through the afternoon and evening hours. As
thermal profiles rapidly cool behind the front, a changeover to snow
is possible by mid afternoon. There is still quite a bit of spread
among the models with respect to the coverage of the snowfall and
snowfall amounts. NBM guidance has become less bullish on snow
totals for the KC area, with the most recent NBM run only giving
around a 30% probability for snow to exceed 1" at MCI. Best chances
for accumulating snow exceeding 1" in our CWA at this time is NE
Missouri, as the NBM gives roughly a 50% probability for snow to
exceed 1" and around a 35% probability for snow to exceed 2" at
Kirksville. With NW winds gusting to 50+ mph for much of the CWA,
visibility will be significantly reduced during periods of snow,
especially during periods of more moderate snowfall rates.

Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills:

Temperatures should fall into the upper single digits across
northern Missouri to the mid teens elsewhere late Sunday night into
Monday morning, with wind chills below zero (potentially as cold as
10 degrees below zero toward the Iowa border).

Flash Freeze:

A flash freeze will be possible on Sunday afternoon given how fast
temperatures will decrease behind the front with rain falling
beforehand and snow possibly melting initially given the warm ground
temperatures.


By Monday afternoon, a closed ~515 dam H5 low is progged to be
centered over Lake Michigan, with a very highly amplified long wave
trough over the east central CONUS. Our CWA should be located on the
back side of this trough, with gusty NW winds and ample CAA
continuing. High temperatures should remain at or below freezing for
Monday, ranging from the mid 20s across NE Missouri to the lower 30s
elsewhere.

Mid/upper ridging begins to build in from the west on Tuesday,
warming temps into the 40s for Tuesday afternoon. Upper ridging
builds in further on Wednesday, warming temps into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. By Thursday, models suggest a 590+ dam H5 high developing
across the Desert Southwest into NW Mexico, with attendant ridging
in place across the western half of the CONUS. This will send mid
level heights even higher on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to
warm mid 70s to potentially even the lower 80s toward the MO/KS
border. Dry conditions are favored for Monday through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds may be a bit
gusty this morning before settling out this afternoon. A strong
low level jet is expected to develop this evening, but as low
level lapse rates weaken, winds are expected to become
increasingly gusty early Sunday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for MOZ001-002-011-012-020.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for MOZ003>008-013>017.
KS...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...BT