St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS63 KEAX 070454
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze Headlines beginning tonight through tomorrow
  morning, with temperatures falling at/below freezing for areas
  east of US-65.

- Warm, dry forecast ahead through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Much of the late morning and early afternoon has been dreary for
northwestern MO/northeastern KS with low clouds and patchy light
drizzle. Low clouds have begun to clear across far northeastern MO
with the advection of dry low-level air from the north, which will
allow clear skies for areas generally east of US-65 going into the
evening. As surface high pressure slides to the southeast during the
evening, a layer of dense, cold air will settle over much of MO and
eastern KS overnight. Winds will also calm closer to the center of
high pressure, which will inhibit the ability of low clouds to mix
out further to the west and south overnight. Current frost/freeze
headlines still reflect general expectations for temperature trends
across the area, but cloud cover still remains the focus for any
deviations in the temperature forecast overnight... For areas where
skies remain clear overnight and winds remain light/calm, enhanced
radiational cooling will contribute to temperatures falling at/below
freezing overnight. However, for areas that remain under dense cloud
cover, temperatures will trend slightly warmer than freezing
overnight.

Surface high pressure will continue sliding off towards the
southeast through the day on Saturday, with temperatures beginning
to warm under weak WAA in the low levels to the high 60s/low 70s by
early next week. Weak ascent in the mid/upper levels could
contribute to lingering cloud cover during the day Saturday, but
otherwise the synoptic pattern becomes relatively benign under
west/northwest flow in the upper levels with quasi-zonal flow,
keeping the forecast warm and dry for the early week. Synoptic
guidance continues to indicate the passage of a mid-level trough to
the northeast as mid-level ridging builds over the western CONUS by
midweek next week, but some disagreement remains on precipitation
placement/trough passage, leaving some uncertainty on forecast
details around that timeframe. However, with the passage of the
trough, winds shifting out of the north will introduce cooler, drier
air by the end of the forecast period, cooling temperatures down to
the low 60s/upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Our stratus deck will remain over the TAF site areas throughout the
overnight and morning hours, with ceilings approaching to just under
1000ft. As a result, the TAF sites will be in the low MVFR to IFR
range until mid morning on Saturday. Throughout Saturday morning,
ceilings will increase and cloud cover will begin to diminish, which
will result in the TAF sites to return to VFR. Winds will be light
and variable through the overnight hours, with speeds increasing to
around 3-5kts from the SW beginning Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ001>005-011>014-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ006>008-015>017-
     023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Bjork