St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS63 KEAX 102335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures today.

- Cold front moves through tomorrow morning, bringing in cooler
  temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A
  region wide freeze is likely both Thursday night and Friday
  night.

- Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Current H5 analysis shows west northwesterly flow in place over
the region, with a shortwave trough traversing east southeast
out of the northern High Plains. At the surface, a subtle pseudo
stationary front is draped west to east near the Interstate 70
corridor, with a 1022 mb high centered over Iowa. This has
resulted in clear skies, light and variable winds, and
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2 PM. Some
patchy fog may be possible early Wednesday morning, with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave trough across the
northern High Plains will quickly move eastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday morning and dig further
south into the Central CONUS by Wednesday afternoon, with the
accompanying surface low moving eastward across Iowa and into
north central Illinois. This will send a cold front through the
CWA tomorrow morning, with winds turning westerly and eventually
northwesterly. Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning,
with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon. Cold
air advection behind the front will yield cooler temperatures
for tomorrow, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the upper
50s to mid 60s. Winds should begin to relax by tomorrow evening
as the pressure gradient slackens, and light winds and mostly
clear skies Wednesday night into Thursday morning should allow
for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A reinforcing shot of even colder and drier air should move
north to south through the region Thursday morning, yielding
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday afternoon. With
light winds and mostly clear skies again Thursday night, the
entire CWA is forecast to dip below freezing early Friday
morning. Due to the growing season being over, we will not be
issuing any frost/freeze products for portions of the CWA that
have not received a freeze yet. Surface high pressure builds in
directly overhead on Friday, with the region still under the
influence of the deep closed mid/upper low over the Great Lakes
and northerly flow aloft. Highs for Friday should only reach the
mid 40s to lower 50s, with another freeze expected CWA wide
Friday night into Saturday morning.

At least marginally warmer temperatures are probable this
weekend into early next week, but just how much warmer is
unknown at this time. NBM MaxT 25th and 75th percentiles for MCI
on Sunday is 48 degrees and 59 degrees, respectively, with 49
and 61 degrees, respectively, for Monday. Some guidance wants to
bring a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Sunday,
which will bring in some chance PoPs (20% to 30%).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

High pressure will keep conditions mostly VFR. Some areas may
see patchy fog tonight but in open areas the wind should remain
strong enough to prevent its development. Winds will pick up in
speed Wednesday and shift with a cold front approaching, along
with high-level clouds moving in.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Krull