St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS63 KEAX 032105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms expected areawide tonight, primary hazards
  including damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

- Heavy rainfall could create additional flooding concerns,
  especially for areas along and south of I-70 with previous
  heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures remain slightly above average through midweek
  next week, increasing chances of precipitation through next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The current environment looks somewhat similar to yesterday,
with the surface low situated over eastern KS, the warm front
pushing into northern MO, and the cold front slowly progressing
into eastern KS. Storms have initiated along the triple point
going into the afternoon in southeastern NE, with some isolated
showers developing in the warm sector through the northern and
eastern half of MO and thunderstorms beginning to develop
towards the southwest in KS just ahead of the cold front.
SBCAPE along and behind the warm front remains around 2000-2500
J/kg, with SBCIN mostly collocated with the warm frontal
boundary. Persistent cloud cover through the day has kept storm
development to a minimum across the open warm sector. Although
convective initiation is currently being observed in the open
warm sector with an eroded cap and decent lapse rates (6-7
degC/km), confidence remains low that stronger storms will
develop during the afternoon. However, if storms are able to
develop near the warm frontal boundary, they will develop in an
area with favorable low-level SRH (200-250 m2/s2) and strong
effective shear (50-60 kts). This will favor organized
convective cells, with all severe hazards possible (damaging
winds, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes).

The greatest confidence for severe weather will be along the
triple point and cold frontal boundary, where convective
initiation along the boundary will cross over this favorable
warm sector environment and result in a line of thunderstorms
moving across eastern KS and western/central MO through the late
afternoon and evening. Presently, mesoanalysis shows the cap
gradually eroding in western MO ahead of the cold front, which
indicates convective initiation becoming increasingly likely
within the next few hours. With this line of storms, the primary
hazards would be damaging wind and large hail, and locally
heavy rainfall with the most intense parts of the line. A
tornado or two is possible along the line in the form of
embedded mesovortices. There is some concern for excessive
rainfall creating flooding impacts in areas that have already
received ample rainfall in the past few days, especially for
areas south of I-70. However, with the progressive nature of the
line, the residency of heavy rainfall will remain brief.

The line of thunderstorms will progress eastward through the
night as the cold front and surface low pressure exit the area
to the northeast, and conditions will clear out through the
night. Surface high pressure will build in through Saturday,
with northwesterly winds around 20-25 mph, gusting up to 25-30
mph during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Amplified ridging continues to build into the area through
Sunday, with surface high pressure entering and exiting through
Monday. A small disturbance will prompt our next chance for
precipitation (25-50%) Monday night, before upper level ridging
progresses eastward into Tuesday. A low chance (10-30%) for
precipitation exists Tuesday in northern MO due to the passage
of another shortwave, and remains low through Wednesday.
Temperatures for this time period will remain within the 50s and
low-mid 60s, keeping it at slightly above seasonally average for
April. Sustained southerly winds on the backside of surface
high pressure will advect warmer temperatures north, and bring
temperatures back into the low to mid 70s across much of the
area during the day Wednesday. By the end of the forecast
period, models simulate the development of a band of
precipitation across north-central MO, increasing precipitation
chances (50-70%) Thursday and Friday. Probabilistic guidance
like the LREF has similarly high probabilities (50-70%), but
deviates in its positioning of the greatest probabilities of
precipitation. As the forecast grows closer, will have to
monitor this precipitation potential at the end of next week to
see if a solution for greatest precipitation potential becomes
clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR/VFR ceilings areawide, currently impacting terminals. Gusty
southerly winds have begun across terminals due to the passage
of the warm front, with the front gradually making its way
further north in the next few hours. TSRA expected to impact
terminals as early as 22z, exiting around 1z with the passage of
the cold front. Behind the front, winds will turn
northwesterly, and gradually calm through the evening. Ceilings
will begin to rise, prompting VFR conditions through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...SPG