St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

428
FXUS63 KEAX 242344
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
644 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures through Thursday, culminating in likely
  record highs for the day.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Thursday evening
  as a strong cold front moves through the area.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible
  Thursday and Friday, especially for areas west of I-35.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Broad south-southwest flow is expected across the western 2/3 of the
US as upper ridge expands eastward leading to unseasonably mild
conditions across the region Wednesday-Thursday. Surface low
pressure deepening across the across eastern Montana is expected to
deepen tonight into tomorrow as it makes it`s way east along the
US/Canadian border. Warm front associated with this system will
lift northeast through the region on Wednesday with 850 hpa
temperatures warming from near 10C towards the upper teens by
late day. With the stout warming from the west, temperatures are
expected to warm well into the 80s F region wide, with the
coolest temperatures in the east. Record high temperatures for
March 25th are relatively warm (90 F for MCI). HREF ensemble
suggests little chance of breaking this record, but better
chances are expected of breaking record high temperatures (85 F
at MCI) on Thursday ahead of a cold front associated with trough
moving along the US/Canadian border. Ahead of the front, the
atmosphere appears to be effectively capped, but behind the
front, there is a threat for elevated showers and thunderstorms.
While instability looks to be limited, the dry nature of the
near surface atmosphere could lead to enhanced wind gusts.
Winds will already be quite strong north of the front with 35-40
knots of flow at 925 hpa. With this being within the mixed
layer and the combined effect of the cold air advection, have
raised wind gusts across northern Missouri by blending with the
NBM90th. This pushes expected wind gusts to near wind advisory
levels behind the front. In addition, will need to keep an eye
on expected relative humidity behind the front which could lead
to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Much
cooler conditions are expected to return to the region Thursday
night into Friday as strong mid- level frontogenesis leads to
instability showers Thursday night.

Drier conditions are expected on Friday into the weekend as
Canadian high pressure builds into the region. As the surface
ridge shifts east, warming southerly flow is expected through
the weekend. This near surface warming combined with a series of
shortwaves moving through zonal flow transitioning to more of
southwest flow could lead to more unsettled weather pattern by
Monday into Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Mid-high level
cloud cover streams over much of the period, predominantly
>15kft. Winds gradually shift through the period, becoming more
southerly overnight and southwesterly by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25:
KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26:
KMCI: 85/1991
KSTJ: 89/1991

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Curtis
CLIMATE...CMS