St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS63 KEAX 071118
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry with highs around 90 through Wednesday.

- Hotter air and storm chances return Wednesday night through
  Saturday.

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather across the area on
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure is currently overhead and has brought us clear
skies. Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are occurring
across the area early this morning. Today will be very similar
to yesterday with sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 80s
to lower 90s with light northeasterly winds around 5 mph. Lows
tonight will be in the 60s with mostly clear skies once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Wednesday will be mostly dry, but a trough to our east begins to
strengthen over the course of the day. Highs will warm into the
mid 90s by mid-week with heat index values peaking on Thursday
with the highest heat index values near 105-106 degrees for
areas mainly south of I-70. It`ll still be warm over the rest of
the area, but that`s where the warmest temperatures will occur
most likely due to the WAA from the front that`ll be positioned
just to the south of our area. Luckily that`ll be the warmest
day of the period with clouds/rain incoming to bring down
temperatures and dewpoints just a bit going into next weekend.

Rain chances (30-60%) return Wednesday night mostly after
midnight as a shortwave moves through northern MO. Best chances
for rain will occur over far NW MO. SPC has us in a general
thunder outlook for Wednesday, so widespread severe weather is
not expected at this time. Appears that the better forcing
occurs just to our west over central KS/NE much closer to the
cold front that`ll be draped over the northern Plains. Then,
another round of showers and thunderstorms (50-70%) move
through Thursday evening as the warm front lifts north. SPC has
us outlooked for a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather across
the area. The front stalls out over the state and the 500mb low
slowly pushes southeast from the northern Plains into northern
MO. Several vort maxima are forecast to eject from the passing
wave and bring us a rainy end to the week. Chances for rain are
30-40% for Friday and those chances persist through the night
until they start to decline through the day on Saturday. Sunday
and Monday are forecast to be dry with highs reaching the mid
90s once again with the heat returning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Patchy fog has developed in low-lying areas this morning, but
fog should dissipate in the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
VFR through the period with variable winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria