St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXUS63 KEAX 291123
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures into the weekend, then warmer to end
  weekend and to start next week

- Periodic showers/storm chances continue with limited
  opportunity for any stronger storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Generally what you saw when you (presumably) went to bed last night,
continued overnight and will continue through the day today. That is
to say light rain, showers, and occasional lightning continue to
stream into and across the area from the S/SE to the NW. This
activity will generally continue throughout the day today thanks to
the existing large scale Omega Block pattern set across CONUS. A
shortwave rounding the base of the western CONUS cutoff low
gradually pushes the responsible weak mid-level trough to the NE.
Very gradually. Any light/measurable rainfall across NE portions of
the CWA and state may not be realized until this evening, post-
sunset, as its progression becomes hindered drier easterly winds
from the Great Lakes surface high. Given all this, expect a dreary,
moist day across much of the CWA proper with temperatures struggling
to do much more than the mid-70s in areas that see the most
persistent light rain and showers. Upper 70s to low 80s will be most
achievable NE toward Kirksville and beyond given the dreadfully slow
NE progression of PoPs.

Deterministic guidance hints at the Omega Block beginning to break
down, but the large scale pattern looks to remain quite messy with
little appreciable progression/change over the next handful of
days. The western CONUS cutoff begins to fill as it moves inland,
but pieces of shortwave energy continue to round its base and move
into/across the Plains. This includes later today/tonight and again
later Saturday into Sunday, the latter of which appears the most
robust. In both cases, renewed shower/storm activity can be
expected. Limited opportunity to destabilize today limits additional
activity to more generic non-severe thunderstorm activity. The
latter shortwave looks to push Colorado Front Range surface low out
into the Plains and generate at least a moderately unstable
environment over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. Better parameter
space looks to remain displaced westward into central Kansas and
parts of south-central Nebraska, but a more eastward progression of
the surface low might begin to place western portions of the CWA at
risk of a few potential strong/severe storms. For now, the depiction
and expectation remains for weakening storms/MCS to move into/across
the area Saturday evening and into the overnight.

Ending the weekend and into next week, the degradation/evolution of
the block continues as the western CONUS trough/cutoff low drifts
back northward along/near the Rockies. This places the local area
within weak mid-upper level ridging regime. Shower/storm chances
will be most dictated by this ridge axis location and the surface
high dropping out of Canada and into the western Great Lakes.
Suffice it to say, a lot of uncertainty here given the messy setup,
with the result being prolonged periods of PoPs. Mixed in with this
is the potential for temps to creep back around 90, including heat
index values into the mid 90s Sunday and Monday. Of course, again
given the messy setup and uncertainty in precipitation, take
temperatures with a grain of salt as well. Deterministic guidance
continues to point at more progressive pattern mid-late week but
with additional chances for showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A fairly messy TAF period anticipated across the sites.
Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to stream
into/through the area. While confidence is high in periods of
light rain to showers and occasional thunder, confidence is
limited in specific timings. Have opted for a pair of TEMPO
periods to highlight when showers and thunder respectively may
be most likely. Ceilings too continue to gradually
lower/deteriorate, with expectation for MVFR to settle into all
sites this morning. Afternoon mixing should lift back to VFR,
but only temporarily with re-lowering later this evening and
into overnight. Throughout this time, winds fairly stead out of
the SE up to around 10kts during daytime.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Curtis