St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS63 KEAX 171841
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
141 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region
  this afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible, but large
  hail should be the primary threat soon after storm initiation
  while damaging winds become more probable as storms organize
  into clusters or lines. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
  out, especially if storms can remain discrete.

- Flash flooding and river flooding is possible this evening, as
  storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall.
  Additionally, training storms may develop in southern portions
  of the forecast area, where local rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
  inches may occur. A flood watch is in effect late this
  afternoon through tonight roughly along and south of I-70.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday.
  Temperatures may fall into the low to mid 30s on Saturday
  night, with areas of frost possible (up to a 50 percent chance
  north and east of the Missouri River).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A strong cold front is extending from northwest Missouri into south
central Kansas early this afternoon. This front will continue to
progress eastward through the afternoon with storms initiating
between 2pm-3pm. Initially, discrete supercells may develop out
ahead of the front along a prefrontal trough in the warm sector
across western Missouri/eastern Kansas in an environment of 3000-
4000J/Kg of SBCAPE, 20-25kts of 0-1Km shear and effective shear
between 50-60kts. This will allow for all modes of severe weather
including large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes to be
possible. Storms are expected to grow upscale as they move through
western into central Missouri during the late afternoon/evening
quickly transitioning from a discrete mode to a linear mode. As
storms become more linear the damaging wind threat will be enhanced
and become more widespread with winds gusts of 70 mph up to 90 mph
with bow echo features possible. In addition, QLCS tornadoes along
the line will also be possible. Although these storms are expected
to be progressive they will be extremely efficient as PWATs will be
in the 1.2-1.4". rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour in concert with
recent wet conditions could produce flash flooding in addition to
minor to moderate river flooding. The severe weather threat will
look to diminish after 9PM however, showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected to continue across central Missouri into
the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The cold front will usher in much colder temperatures tonight as
strong CAA is expected in its wake with lows falling back into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. CAA will continue into Saturday until high
pressure begins to move into the area late in the day. This will
keep highs in the mid 50s to near 60. The surface ridge of high
pressure will allow for clear skies and light winds Saturday night
providing good radiational cooling for lows to dip into the mid to
upper 30s with frost possible. Sunday, surface high pressure will
sink south leaving downsloping westerly flow in its place. This will
push highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night into Monday a
warm front will lift north across the forecast area. WAA ahead of
this front will allow temperatures to further warm into the upper
60s to mid 70s Monday. Tuesday a weak mid-lvl shortwave traveling
on northwest flow aloft will bring a chance for a few showers
however NBM PoPs remain silent at this time. Tuesday night into
Wednesday a upper level trough will dig into the west coast. In
response upstream ridging will build across the area aiding in
temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday
night into Thursday the upper level trough will push into the
western Plains forcing a cold front into the area and producing the
next chances for thunderstorms in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop between
19Z-21Z...along the front edge of the storms strong and variable
wind gusts will be poss in excess of 40kts. In addition, heavy
rainfall reducing vis to 1SM is expected. Strong storms with
heavy rain are fcst from 21Z-23Z aft which -tsra are expected
thru 00Z-01Z and -shra thru 03Z-05Z before precip pushes east of
the TAF sites. Otrw...cigs will be btn 3-4kft thru 03Z-05Z aft
which bkn mid-lvl clouds are fcst. Aft 08Z...clr skies are
expected. Winds will initially be out of the SSW/SW btn 15-20kts
with gusts to 25-35kts. Winds may become strong in thunderstorms
btn 21Z-23Z with variable winds around 25kts with gusts to 40+
kts. The cold front will move thru the TAF sites btn 23Z-00Z
shift winds to the NW/NNW btn 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ028>032-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73