St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
Updated: 4:17 am CDT Oct 18, 2025 |
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Today
 Partly Sunny
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Tonight
 Mostly Cloudy and Breezy then Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Clear
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Monday
 Sunny
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Monday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
 Sunny
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Tuesday Night
 Clear
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Wednesday
 Sunny
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Hi 77 °F |
Lo 46 °F |
Hi 65 °F |
Lo 50 °F |
Hi 74 °F |
Lo 47 °F |
Hi 63 °F |
Lo 39 °F |
Hi 71 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Today
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Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Light west southwest wind becoming west northwest 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Tonight
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Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 65. West northwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Clear, with a low around 50. South wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 74. South wind around 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 47. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 63. |
Tuesday Night
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Clear, with a low around 39. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 71. |
Wednesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. |
Thursday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
256
FXUS63 KEAX 180654
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
154 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms diminish in coverage through sunrise and
into the morning. Then additional showers and a storms
develop this afternoon, mainly south of a Paola, KS to
Moberly, MO line.
- A strong cold front moves through with gusty northwesterly
winds developing behind it from late this afternoon through
the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible.
- Overall, more seasonal temperatures expected Sunday through
the end of the next week. Temperatures drop into the 30s for
some areas Wednesday morning, leading the potential for frost.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025
As of 06Z, radar imagery shows the cold front slowly moving
southward, from near Anderson County, KS, northeast to the
vicinity of Macon, MO. This puts nearly all the thunderstorm
activity behind the front and the anticipation is that by
sunrise, most of the convection will have shifted east and
diminished considerably in intensity. The front that had been
the focus for this activity becomes diffuse as well and while
we`ll be about 10 degrees cooler than Friday, that is still
about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Focus then
shifts to the redevelopment of showers and storms Saturday
afternoon as a stronger mid to upper-level trough approaches the
area from the west. Strong forcing associated with this trough
will lead to the development of widespread showers and storms
from southeastern KS into southern/ central MO. This activity
will likely move into our far southeastern zones during the late
afternoon and evening time frame. The most likely area to see
precipitation will be south of Paola, KS to Moberly, MO line.
Can`t rule out some isolated to scattered activity further
north, especially as the stronger cold front approaches, but the
best combination of forcing, instability, moisture, and shear
will mainly be south of the area and that area will see the most
widespread activity.
With the strong trough and its associated cold front moving through
the region, strong subsidence behind the cold front will bring gusty
northwesterly winds to the area from Saturday afternoon into the
overnight hours. The HREF shows fairly high probabilities (45-55%) of
wind gusts in excess of 40 mph in the wake of the cold front across
eastern KS and western MO. Have increased wind speeds and gusts to
between 30 and 35 kts given these higher probabilities. There
is a small chance (less than 10%) of winds over 45 mph so it is
very unlikely we`ll meet wind advisory levels with this frontal
passage.
Temperatures cool down back to normal levels Sunday, behind the cold
front. However, there will be a brief warmup again on Monday as
southerly flow increases ahead of the next front. Highs on
Monday may be 10 degrees above normal. But temperatures return
to near-normal levels again for the remainder of the week, in
the wake of this front. Overall, morning lows the next week look
warm enough to preclude the potential for frost. The one
exception looks like Wednesday morning as a surface ridge
settles over the area. With light winds and clear skies, decent
radiational cooling will occur with temperatures dropping into
the mid and upper 30s. Ensemble guidance shows some areas in
northern and northeastern MO with about a 50% chance of low
temperatures less than 35, with a 10-20% chance of lows below
freezing. Given the pattern, those coldest temperatures would be
in low-lying/ sheltered areas with a good potential for
widespread frost across much of northern and northeastern MO.
Late next week, in the Thursday night to Friday time frame, another
fairly robust shortwave trough moves through the central Plains into
the lower Missouri River valley. This system draws a plume of deeper
moisture back northward into the area and leads to our next chance
for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
A cluster of showers and storms currently (as of 4Z) extending
from northeast MO to eastern KS will continue to progress
easterly through the overnight out head of a front. This cluster
of showers and storms is anticipated to linger into the predawn
hours of Saturday. Once the front moves through the area, winds
will begin to shift out of the north/northeast near the end of
the TAF period. Expect winds behind the front to occasionally
gust to around 25-30 kts tomorrow evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier
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