St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS63 KEAX 251724
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light snow is expected to come to an end across the region this
  morning.  Have canceled headlines along and north of a line from
  Atchison KS to Adair MO, and moved up the ending time for areas
  farther south to 9 am.

* Frigid temperatures remain across the area through much of the
  upcoming week. Cold weather advisory issued for Monday morning
  area wide for wind chills of -15 to -20 F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Elongated arctic high centered along the US/Canadian border covering
much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies leading to widespread
surface temperatures in the single digits above and below zero
across the northern US. Short wave that brought snow to the
region over the last day has worked into the southeastern US
with additional waves in Texas and New Mexico leading to more
active weather across the southern portions of the US. Any
additional accumulations are expected to be fairly light this
morning, generally an inch of snow or less, with the greatest
accumulations across central Missouri. Frigid temperatures are
expected today with 925 HPA temperatures hovering around -16 C.
With clearing skies and arctic high pressure building south
across the Western Plains tonight, atmosphere is setting up good
radiative conditions over the fresh snow cover across the
region. Models suggests there is the potential for a few low
clouds that may spoil the nearly idealized radiative conditions.
Regardless, it will still be extremely cold tonight, and even
with a breath of wind, wind chills are expected to be in the -15
to -20 F range Monday morning. Models are giving about a 10%
chance of temperatures falling to near record levels. Because of
the extreme temperatures/wind chills, have issued a cold air
advisory running from midnight through 9 AM Monday morning.
Westerly winds gradually turn southwesterly on Monday leading to
warming conditions across the region.

Temperatures are not expected to fall appreciably Monday evening
after sunset as stronger winds develop keeping the atmosphere weakly
mixed. This gives the region a warmer start on Tuesday morning, but
a cold front is expected to drop south across the region mid-day.
NBM has hedged towards the warmer side of guidance, but if the
timing of the cold front is early enough in the day, it may be
difficult warm as much as the current forecast suggests.

Flow turns westerly again on Wednesday leading to a brief warm up
ahead of another push of arctic air building into the area from the
north. The near surface northerly flow looks to remain through the
end of the week, keeping temperatures well below normal and sub-
freezing regionwide.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
today will turn more northwesterly tonight at around 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-
     053-054.
KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BJH