St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

875
FXUS63 KEAX 201247
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Below normal temperatures expected through Monday.

* Chance of minor snow accumulations across eastern Kansas Saturday
  morning. Chance of accumulating snow decreases further east into
  central Missouri as moisture becomes more scarce.

* Above normal temperatures with dry conditions return Tuesday
  and continue through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

995 mb low over northern Illinois continues to pinwheel towards the
western Great Lakes with near surface cold air advection waning on
the back side of the low. Clearing skies will lead to fairly strong
mixing for this time of year with unidirectional winds in the mixed
layer. As a result, should see a decent temperature recovery through
the afternoon hours though temperatures in most locations will
remain a few degrees below normal. Winds are expected to gradually
decrease as the pressure gradient slackens across the region,
leading to lower fire weather concerns this afternoon than the past
few days.

Shortwave in the base of the upper trough across the western US is
expected to shift east today building into central US Saturday
morning. Consistent saturation within the dendritic layer looks to
become increasingly difficult the further east the wave goes. Models
also continue to indicate limited amounts of surface moisture, which
will eat away at the potential for snow accumlations on Saturday
morning. HREF probabilities for accumulating snow are generally in
the 40-50 percent range across eastern Kansas, but quickly tail off
farther east and quickly drop to near zero for amounts greater than
a few tenths of an inch. Cold air advection behind the departing
wave will once again keep temperatures slightly below seasonal
norms, something that has rarely been seen this month. Below
normal temperatures continue Sunday into Monday as northerly
flow remains and becomes reinforced by a moisture starved
clipper type wave dropping into the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures quickly rebound Tuesday onward on the heels of mid
height rises, surging 850mb temps, and persistent southerly
surface flow. This will push temperatures back well above
normal into the 50s and 60s across the area. Deterministic
guidance, and largely their accompanying ensembles, are in good
agreement of a northern stream shortwave/clipper dropping
through the Northern/Central Plains Wednesday/Thursday.
Fortunately, the clipper is progged to lack a significantly
colder air mass, resulting in continuation of seasonally above
normal temperatures through the end of next week. Precipitations
chances with this system remain more up in the air and on the
low end over the area with strongest/deepest lift currently
anticipated northward of the state. Regardless, temperatures
would keep any precipitation of the liquid variety.


Above normal temperatures return to the region Tuesday and
beyond as upper level ridge across the west expands east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR ceilings have cleared out of the area, leaving VFR
conditions in their wake. General expectation for VFR to
prevail through the remaining TAF period, including easing NW/N
winds. After 06z, increasing low-mid level cloud cover may yield
some very light snow as a quick scooting shortwave moves
through, but is expected to struggle to produce much snow
(visibility reductions) within a very dry environment.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis/BT
AVIATION...Curtis