St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS63 KEAX 241123
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry Thursday

- Rain chances return Friday and into the weekend with the
  chance (20-30%) for isolated, non-severe thunderstorms
  Saturday along the KS/MO border

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

We have at least one more day of pleasant Fall weather and dry
conditions as the 500mb blocking pattern, the pair of high pressure
systems over the Great Lakes and the Gulf coast, keeps the ridge
over our area from moving out quickly. However, upper level
saturation will bring clouds back into our area throughout the day
Thursday. This cloud cover and light easterly flow at the surface
will keep temperatures in the 70s today.

Overnight, the ridge over the central US begins to weaken as a
shortwave trough starts to develop over the Rockies. An associated
surface low begins to develop and the high pressure to our NE begins
to exit, supporting southerly flow to our west bringing warm moist
air. Over our area, isentropic ascent will trigger the initial lift
needed for rain in our area, primarily in NW MO. There are no major
concerns for thunderstorms Friday morning because the low-level
clouds and weak lapse rates will keep instability low. 500mb heights
continue to fall Friday night into Saturday as the shortwave and
deepening surface low progress east which will support better lift
and better chances (70-90% north of I-70 and 50-70% south) for rain
across the entire CWA with a 20-30% chance for isolated
thunderstorms primarily along the KS/MO border north of I-70. Rain
will stick around for much of the weekend as another blocking
pattern forms at 500mb as high pressure over the Great Lakes is
sandwiched between a developing Nor`easter over the Mid-Atlantic and
a deepening trough over the Pacific NW. Southerly flow will continue
to bring warmer air into our region and the 500mb ridge starts to
build back into the area Sunday so rain chances will diminish
throughout the day Sunday. However, this ridge will have to contend
with the Nor`easter that sets up shop off the North Atlantic coast
and tries to stick around early next week. This could keep the ridge
from progressing as far east, keeping rain chances around for a
little longer and keeping us cooler. If the ridge is able to
progress into our area Monday we could see slightly warmer
temperatures in the mid 80s.

We are also watching for another chance of rain in the middle of
next week as models have the 500mb trough over the Pacific NW
deepening and moving into the central US.The exact timing of this
system however, will depend on how quickly the Nor`easter moves off
of the NE Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Cloud cover will gradually move in from central Kansas this
morning and afternoon. Bases though will remain at VFR for most
of the 12z TAF period. Scattered rain showers will be possible
across far northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening.
Precipitation will spread southeastward more heading into
Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull/IPC
AVIATION...Krull