St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS63 KEAX 061740
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle this morning into this afternoon.

- 60-90% chance for below freezing temps east of HWY-65, freeze
  warning issued for counties along and east of 65.

- Warmer and drier conditions return late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Current 500mb analysis reveals that the primary axis of the mid-
level trough has moved east of our forecast area as high pressure
continues to move in behind it. The surface low continues to move
east into SE Ontario bringing the trailing cold front south of our
forecast area as high pressure builds in from the north over the
Northern Plains. The overall synoptic setup supports northerly flow
and CAA into the region which will result in slightly cooler
temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 50s. Low level
clouds are going to stick around for most of today and tonight as
forecast soundings depict a lingering saturated layer near the
surface with an inversion aloft. Winds at the surface will also be
weak or non-existent due to the weak pressure gradient across the
forecast area, which will make it difficult for that saturated layer
to mix out. Deep lift within the saturated layer will also support
patchy drizzle through at least the morning hours, potentially into
this evening as it tapers off from NE to SW.

Overnight, the 500mb ridge and surface high will settle into our
region, supporting continued CAA and colder temperatures. However,
how low temperatures drop will depend on how far low level clouds
retreat overnight. Current guidance keep clouds around for areas
west of highway 65, which will limit radiational cooling and keep
lows at or above 32 degrees. Clouds are more likely to dissipate
east of 65 allowing for more efficient radiational cooling and a 60-
90% chance of dropping below freezing. Therefore, we have issued a
freeze warning for counties along and east of highway 65 and a frost
advisory west of 65.

As we move into late this weekend and early next week, the upper-
level ridge will deamplify across the northern CONUS resulting in
quasi-zonal flow while high pressure at the surface will move east,
supporting more southwesterly flow into the forecast area. This will
drive highs back into the mid to upper 60s and lows into the mid to
upper 40s and conditions should remain dry for the beginning of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

MVFR prevailing at all terminals through the afternoon. -DZ
expected to persist at terminals through at least 20z, with CIGs
remaining at MVFR. Cloud deck looks to be clearing out across
far NE MO, and this clearing is expected to continue for eastern
terminals. However, western terminals (especially those along
the MO/KS border) look to remain in MVFR, with an opportunity to
drop into IFR between 6-9z. Guidance attempts to be optimistic
with CIGs lifting by the end of the period, but trends have been
far more pessimistic, so have continued prevailing MVFR to close
out the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-
     054.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.
KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...SPG