St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS63 KEAX 151133
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this
  morning and afternoon. However, rainfall totals have trended
  downward, and the remaining flood watch has been canceled.

- A cold front will move through the region from west to east
  this afternoon, with northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to
  30 mph behind the front.

- Much colder and drier air will move in behind the front, with
  high temperatures on Friday only reaching the low to mid 50s
  and gusty northwesterly winds continuing into Friday
  afternoon.

- Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning should drop
  into the mid to upper 30s, with areas of frost likely.
  Temperatures may flirt with the freezing mark across northern
  Missouri and NE Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the upper low centered over the Front
Range, with enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow
downstream across Kansas and Missouri. At the surface, the
accompanying surface cyclone is currently lifting to the
northeast out of northern Oklahoma. This has helped generate a
large shield of showers and thunderstorms across
eastern/southeastern Kansas, lifting to the northeast into our
CWA. The surface low should continue to lift northeast through
the morning hours, pulling a warm front south to north through
much of the CWA and allowing for temperatures to warm into the
upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area by early afternoon.
Scattered showers with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are
likely through the remainder of the morning hours and into early
afternoon. However, expected rainfall totals have trended
significantly downward, and the remaining flood watch in effect
across far southern portions of the CWA has been canceled.

The closed mid/upper low across the Front Range is progged to
become an open wave and eject into the central CONUS by later
today, which will push the surface low and trailing cold front
through the CWA from west to east this afternoon. Winds will
turn northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Colder temperatures and drier air will
also move in behind the front. Another mid/upper trough will
become more amplified and dig further south out of Canada and
into the Midwest late tonight into early Friday, sending another
reinforcing shot of colder and drier air, with temperatures
falling into the mid 40s by Friday morning. With gusty
northwesterly winds continuing, wind chills Friday morning
should fall into the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air
advection on Friday, temperatures will struggle to warm, and
guidance has continued to trend colder with max temps Friday now
only projected to reach the lower to mid 50s (although high res
guidance suggests even colder temps than this). Gusty north
northwesterly winds will continue through mid to late afternoon.
The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening
as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central
High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface
high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds,
clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent
radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday
morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across most of the
region, with temperatures potentially flirting with the
freezing mark across portions of northern Missouri and
northeastern Kansas. This should yield areas of frost across the
area, with some sort of frost/freeze product potentially being
needed depending on how guidance trends over the next 36 hours.

Saturday should be a beautiful (albeit slightly cool) mid
October day, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, clear
skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in
from the west by Sunday and into next week out initially out
ahead of a shortwave trough over Baja California and then out
ahead of a longwave trough that is progged to develop off the
West Coast by Monday/Tuesday. This should bring in warmer
temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the
low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon
and mid to even upper 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Scattered rain showers should continue through the remainder of
the morning hours and perhaps linger into early afternoon, with
brief reductions in VIS to around 5SM to 6SM during marginally
heavier pockets of rain. Otherwise, LIFR to IFR CIGs should
continue before improving to MVFR somewhere by early to mid
afternoon, and finally to VFR by around 2z to 3z Friday. A cold
front will move through the terminals from west to east by
around 20z this afternoon, turning winds to northwesterly and
increasing winds to 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to
perhaps even 25 knots through the afternoon and evening hours.
Gusts may relax just a bit by late evening, but sustained NW
winds should remain elevated (12 knots or so) through the
overnight hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW