St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS63 KEAX 230420
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region tonight
  into Sunday.

* Weakening showers may try to build into eastern KS Sunday
  afternoon leading increasing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two.

* Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east
  Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity is not
  expected to be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Broad 1025 mb surface high pressure has built south from Canada and
is currently centered across the central Dakotas with dew points in
the 40s and 50s to the northwest.  Drier air will filter into the
region this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

Surface ridge is expected to shift east tonight leading to good
radiative conditions.  Have forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s across the region. With the good radiative conditions, could see
patchy fog develop in the river valleys and drainage areas, though
increasing high clouds from showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Plains may limit potential.

Isotropic lift will continue to support the shorts pushing east,
though activity will struggle the farther east it goes with limited
moisture.  Expect the net result to be increasing clouds, and
potentially a few sprinkles across eastern KS.  Have lowered
forecast highs across eastern KS into western MO with increasing
clouds.

Ridge riding short wave is expected to build south along the
Missouri River basin Sunday night. Increasing isentropic lift near
the 310K surface may lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms
overnight.  Mid- level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic so
showers should have limited instability to work with, and dry air
near the surface should limit precip potential.

Warmer, more muggy conditions are expected the first half of next
week as the long standing upper ridge expands east.  A series of
ridge riding short waves building into the Upper Midwest could lead
to additional showers and thunderstorms mid-week.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd at all the TAF sites
with the exception of STJ where fog is expected to develop aft
08Z and cont thru 14Z reducing vis to 4SM with ocnl vis reduced
to 1/4SM btn 10Z-14Z. Otrw...expect incrg high clouds thru 21Z
aft which bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. A few
decaying showers may approach the TAF sites aft 21Z however
conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time. Winds
thru the TAF pd will be lgt at less than 6kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73