St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

433
FXUS63 KEAX 260009
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
709 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled weather conditions begin to return overnight Tuesday
  into Wednesday and through the remainder of the week.
  - The severe weather and flooding threat appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A pleasant Memorial Day across the area, especially if you enjoy
warmer/warming temperatures. With surface elongated area of surface
high pressure now centered over the southern Great Lakes, SSE/S
winds have broadly moved into the area. This, along bit warmer 850mb
temps and general mid-upper level height rises, have helped yield
highs on their way to the mid-80s through the rest of the
afternoon/early evening. The "nice" factor is also aided by dew
points remaining down in the 50s to low 60s.

A gradual end to the clear conditions remains forecast through the
week, with little substantial change to previous forecast packages.
The large scale pattern will gradually transition to an Omega Block
look as a cutoff mid-upper level low digs down the West Coast, a
series of troughs drive down toward New England, and amplified
ridging in between. Initially, a weakening mid-upper level low will
lift out of Texas/Southern Plains, and is currently seen clearly on
WV imagery over central/east Texas. The trend here has been for
slowing onset of any precipitation, now generally eliminating
chances Tuesday and pushing chances into early if not mid-day
Wednesday. This trend is unsurprising with antecedent dry air mass
and weak lift/filling nature of the low/trough. Synoptic guidance
hints at the possibility any widespread accumulating rain chances
may hold off until a open shortwave trough rounding the western
CONUS cutoff low lifts out of the Southern High Plains. This would
push PoPs toward the latter portions of Wednesday or later,
depending on the model suite you latch onto. NBM PoP trends align
with this, keeping most of the CWA dry until after 18z Wednesday.
Even then, PoPs <40 are a lower trend from previous cycle. Through
the remainder of the work week, a weak Rex Block look too develops
through central CONUS. Some variance in deterministic and ensemble
guidance as to just how far northward widespread shower/storm
activity can get as a battle with south/southeastward dropping
surface high and associated dry air ensues. Through this time frame,
Thursday/Friday, best chances for accumulating rain will be as you
work southward through Missouri. Some low-end chances for
precipitation may continue into/through the weekend depending on the
progression/placement of the surface high. The risk for flooding and
any strong/severe storms remains quite low with lackluster
environment given the prolonged and meandering weak lift and general
flow. Expect mainly showers with occasional non-severe thunder.

Temperatures peak Tuesday/Wednesday in the mid 80s for most. A few
may top out in the upper 80s, namely western areas. Then a handful
or more degrees cooler to round out the week and into the weekend
with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, pushing highs
more toward the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Southerly winds around 10-15 knots continue until
sunset before becoming light. Southeasterly winds pick up again
after sunrise tomorrow. FEW VFR clouds are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel