St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXUS63 KEAX 231904
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
204 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers/storms this evening/tonight mainly south of
  I-70, with sprinkles possible to the north.

- Still looking like another active period of setting up for
  Thursday into Friday with showers and storms. Flooding
  is possible with a low risk for severe thunderstorms.

- Increasing heat and humidity and mainly dry conditions are
  anticipated this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Convective clusters continue generally sliding E/SE through Kansas into
Oklahoma traversing along the NW/SE oriented moisture and instability
gradients. Will keep some chance PoPs for a bit this evening/tonight
mainly south of I-70 with the isentropic ascent/warm advection and a
passing mid level shortwave. Confidence is low however, and these
precipitation prospects will be largely determined by convective
trends to our west as any continued convection could interrupt the
moisture feed. Further to the north there could be some sprinkles with
some higher based cloud bases and anvil seeding.

On Wednesday, anticipate largely dry conditions during the day despite
an increase in moisture as forcing remains fairly nebulous.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The main focus is with initially an active period of weather setting
up for Thursday into Friday, and then this will be followed up by
building heat and humidity over the weekend into early next week.

The ingredients are in place for high coverage rain chances Thursday
into Friday with a shortwave(s) ejecting out across the area
in zonal flow aloft and with moisture pooling along a west-east
surface boundary draped in or near the service area. There still
remains plenty of uncertainty on the track of the shortwave(s) and
location of the surface boundary, but with anomalously high moisture
(PWATs of nearly 2 inches) the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding
will exist. There is too much uncertainty on the location of rainfall
and potential amounts right now to go with a Flood Watch, but we may
need one once a favored corridor for heavy rain can be better determined,
which currently is being suggested mainly south of I-70.

This weekend into early next week the signal continues to increase
for building heat and humidity with a pattern change to a ridge
building over the central CONUS. Some near daily very isolated
to widely scattered diurnally driven convection can`t be ruled out,
but the main impact will the very warm/hot temperatures. Latest
runs of the NBM depict high probabilities (75-90%) for exceeding
90 degrees as we get to Sunday through early next week
with mean apparent temperatures around 100+ degrees. Certainly
the potential for excessive heat will be something to monitor
closely in the coming days, likely further accentuated by the recent
cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected into tonight before the potential
for at least MVFR conditions (mainly ceilings) develops late
tonight and Wednesday morning.

Clusters of convection currently traversing southward along the
Lee of the Rockies should remain west of the terminals into
tonight following the moisture and instability gradients. There
is a chance for some higher based sprinkles toward 00z, with no
impacts expected. Late tonight there is a chance for a shower
with the arrival of deeper low level moisture, and have
maintained PROB30 mention for all sites but KSTJ. This moisture
could result in some MVFR ceilings as well, with NBM
probabilities for ceilings <3kft agl at 40-50% which continues
trending upward. There is also very low probabilities (20% or
less) for IFR ceilings. Current satellite imagery shows an area
of lower MVFR stratus north of KSGF to KCNU in SW Missouri to SE
Kansas. Trajectories in the cloud bearing layer turn more
southerly in time tonight, which would advect this northward but
some concerns exist with additional convection passing to our
south/west to impeded the advection.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure