St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS63 KEAX 141130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs near the upper 40s today, but you needed to be up at
  12:01 AM to experience it. Much of the rest of the day will be
  in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

- Gusty winds expected through the daytime hours. Gusts around
  25 MPH to as high as 35 MPH anticipated.

- Colder through the end of the week with another chance for
  light precipitation (mainly across central and NE MO) Thursday
  into Friday with chance possible continuing into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Near 50s degrees again today although the only way you would have
experienced it is being outside at midnight. Temperatures continue
to fall as cold air from the north continues to envelope the region.
This is part of a large upper level trough that is descending into
the region. Within this large scale trough are two embedded waves,
the first moved through the area starting yesterday evening bringing
with it gusty winds and rain showers. The second wave lags behind
the first enough that exiting the house this morning may not feel
all that bad with temperatures at 6 AM expected be be around 40
degrees. However, cold air continue to push into the area which will
be felt as winds accelerate through the morning. Gusts of 25-35 MPH
are possible. While conditions will be blustery, wind chills are
expected to remain in the upper 20s through the day.

Temperatures are able to rebound slightly thanks in part to solar
heating. The air behind the first front is significantly drier which
has helped clear skies out (and facilitate the downward mixing of
winds). However, temperatures are only expected to rebound back into
the high 30s this afternoon. The second push of cold air comes in
late this afternoon and evening. This will cascade temperatures
downward overnight tonight to around 15 degrees, an almost 42 degree
drop from the 57F high recorded at MCI on Tuesday.

A quick ridge behind this double fisted push of cold air turns winds
back southerly for a day and boosts temperatures back north of 40
degrees for most on Thursday. The pattern looks to shift Thursday
night into the weekend. Forecast guidance has been proposing another
strong wave moving through the northern CONUS that looks to bring us
some weather activity starting overnight Thursday into Friday
possibly continuing into Saturday.

There continues to be much uncertainty with this system as the
macroscale setup of the atmosphere plays a significant role in
the evolution of the weather patter. An expansive polar low sits
over northern Quebec along with a loosely organized Rex block
over the Cascades to Hawaiian Islands. This is more or less
funneling systems through a globally narrow path across the
Canadian Rockies to the Great Lakes. Shortwaves have been more
or less taking this route for the past several days and it looks
likely to continue. The wave that most model project to roll
through this weekend is not anticipated to develop until this
afternoon somewhere near the Yukon Territory. Model guidance has
been resolving these waves different; sometimes in very unique
interpretations that can range anywhere from underwhelming to
over- zealous. Deterministic guidance, particularly the GFS,
intensifies this shortwave digging it across the northern CONUS
resulting in a more widespread system. Ensemble guidance is a
bit more nuanced keeping much of the precipitation well away
from our area. Overall consensus of models does maintain the
bulk of the precipitable activity remaining north and east of
the region; however, it does place western MO and eastern KS in
an axis of substantial, swift, cold air flow. This drops highs
Friday into Saturday by nearly 15 degrees. It is difficult to
completely rule out precipitation chances with that significant
of a temperature drop; however uncertainty remains high yielding
minimal PoP outlooks at this juncture. This uncertainty is
primarily linked to the strength of the cold front as well how
dry the air might be around this front. If the air is drier,
precipitation will likely remain toward the north and east.
Should the air be more saturated further west, there is a chance
for snow showers extending all the way west to the MO/KS
border. Snow spreads across the ensembles are not keen on snow
totals leaving most between zero and a dusting with the most
optimistic being a couple tenths of an inch. Confidence is much
higher in another push of Arctic air and another day of blustery
winds. As the wave pieces itself together tomorrow afternoon
and Thursday, it will become more clear what to expect.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected for the duration of the
forecast period. A small band of low clouds bringing temporary
MVFR CIGs is exiting the terminals; some SCT MVFR CIGs remain,
but those will likely dissipate through the morning.

Gusty northerly winds continue through the day. Gusts persist
around 25-30 knots with some intermittent higher gusts possible.
Wind gust look to dissipate after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel