St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS63 KEAX 111105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
505 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures come to an end Wednesday afternoon.

- Windy conditions Wednesday, with gusts approaching 30kts.

- Hard-Freeze likely Friday and Saturday Morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures (10-15
degrees above average) as influence from the 500mb jet stream brings
us into a pattern change. The jet is continuing to dig southward and
as a result, an associated low pressure center (currently centered
over west-central Iowa as of 09z) will continue to progress
southeastward into central Illinois by late morning. As a result, a
cold front will pass through Missouri during the morning hours,
which will result in a wind shift from southwest to northwest.
Temperatures will still be able to climb into the 60s as the
dynamics will allow for enhanced mixing. With the low pressure
system to our east, the area will see a pressure gradient, which
will result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kts, with gusts
approaching or slightly exceeding 30kts. Winds die down in the
evening as the low continues to progress to the east. During the
Wednesday night into Thursday morning time frame, a secondary cold
front the north will progress into our region. This will allow for
cold air advection to increase overnight and throughout the day
Thursday. Because of this cold surge, highs on Thursday are only
expected to get up into the mid 40s to low 50s.

By the time we get to Thursday night into Friday morning, skies will
be mostly clear, with higher concentrations of clouds in eastern
Missouri. This will allow for much of the state to see temperatures
below freezing, getting down to the mid 20s. Since the
climatological date for our first hard-freeze has passed, any type
of issuance to reflect a frost/freeze headline will not be issued.
Regardless, any sensitive plants will need to be protected. The
trough will continue to dig, and temperatures will remain in the 40s
as the jet will keep milder temperatures to our south. Temperatures
below freezing are expected overnight Friday into Saturday Morning.

The weather will remain quiet during the day on Saturday as we
continue to see influence from our airmass from the north with
response from the jet stream and surface high pressure north of Lake
Superior. By the middle of the weekend, the pattern becomes much
more zonal, but a shortwave may bring the return of rain on Sunday
into Monday. Highest chances remain to our south and west, but exact
totals and spatial coverage for our area will become more clear as
we get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Conditions will be VFR, as cloud activity will be minimal, with the
exception of a few occasional high based clouds. Wind speeds will be
out of the northwest, and will increase after 15z sustained at 15-20
kts, with gusts up to 30-35kts. As we lose daylight around 23z
Wednesday, wind speeds will diminish closer to 5-10kts, and will
remain at this rate for the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bjork
AVIATION...Bjork