St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXUS63 KEAX 160836
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and possibly a few storms this morning
  Tuesday morning. No severe weather is expected.

- Strong non-thunderstorm winds are likely Wednesday morning and
  early afternoon with gusts possibly exceeding 50 mph for a
  short time.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon and evening for central and northeast MO.
  Risk levels drop off to the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers are beginning to develop over southeast NE and northeast
KS. A 35 kt LLJ has developed over north central KS and moisture
advection is increasing. The jet will strengthen to 40-45 kts
while veering into northeast KS during the next few hours. This
will focus development along the KS/MO border through mid
morning. Some CAMs are quite bullish with around a half inch of
QPF centered near the KC metro. PoPs have been increased to
60-70 percent in that area with chance farther east away from
the better moisture and the LLJ. A few thunderstorms are also
possible given modest instability, but severe weather is not
expected. Showers will slide southeast with the jet mid morning
and dry weather expected for the rest of the day.

A trough will dig into the northern Plains tonight. Jet
confluence at the base of the trough will increase speeds not
usually seen in June. Also, a very strong 55-65 kt LLJ will
develop overhead tonight. The boundary layer will be stable for
much of the overnight which should keep gusts more sporadic,
but following sunrise low level lapse rates increase and gusts
should really ramp up as strong winds aloft are tapped into. By
mid morning Wednesday, 40-50 kt winds will reside within the
mixed layer. There very well may be gusts that reach these
speeds through midday. The LLJ jet streak will slide east by
afternoon as mixing maximizes. It will remain gusty through the
day, but the intensity will gradually wane. A Wind Advisory may
eventually be needed for Wednesday morning.

A cold front will begin approaching northeastern KS and far
northwestern MO early afternoon, passing through the KC metro
mid afternoon. This is a bit earlier than previous forecasts.
Thermal ridging ahead of the front will bring hot and humid air
northeast into northwest MO, but the front may be just fast
enough to clear most of the KC metro before the cap breaks and
convective initiation occurs around 21Z to the east. Convection
will zipper southwest along the cold front into the evening. The
parameter space remains very favorable for severe thunderstorms
and supercells are still possible with all hazards. The greatest
risk is across eastern and central MO where a level 3/5 severe
risk resides. Coverage will be lower farther west, but the
storms that do form may still produce 75 mph wind gusts and 2
inch hail. Heat indices ahead of the front may reach 100 with
highs in the low to mid 90s and dew points near 70.

The front will clear to the southeast Wednesday evening but will
stall across southern MO which may keep storm chances going
across central MO into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The front will remain across central MO through Thursday before
resuming its push south Thursday night. High pressure will build
into the MO/MS Valley Thursday night into Friday night before
shifting east to the OH Valley Saturday. Low pressure will
develop over Colorado Saturday and track east across the central
Plains Saturday night. Rich moisture streaming north with pwats
possibly greater than 2 inches will advect north on a strong LLJ
which should result in widespread thunderstorms along the warm
front Saturday night and Sunday. The evolution of this system
still shows a lot of spread in the ensemble guidance, but the
overall scenario is favorable for heavy rainfall totals and
potential flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will increase late with showers developing after 09-10Z.
A few TS are also possible, thus kept the PROB30. Showers should
exit by 14-15Z with clearing skies thereafter. Southwest winds
will shift northwest this afternoon, then southeast this
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff