St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS63 KEAX 290840
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
240 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy (25-35 mph wind gusts) and cold conditions will continue
  today. Wind chill values this morning will range between zero
  to 10 below zero. Wind chill values this afternoon will only
  max out in the upper single digits and teens.

- Temperatures rebound going into Tuesday with relatively mild,
  dry weather expected to continue through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Early this morning, the upper level system that brought yesterday`s
showers/storms/snow is exiting he area and moving into the Great
Lakes. This will leave the area under cold northwest flow aloft.
Cold air will continue to advect into the area on strong northwest
winds gusting 25 to 35 mph through the day today. This will hold
high in the 20s today with winds chills remaining in the single
digits and teens this afternoon. This evening/tonight a surface
ridge of high pressure will build into the area from the
northern/central Plains allowing winds to relax. Light winds and
clear skies will provide a good radiational cooling setup tonight
again allowing lows to fall back into the teens. The surface ridge
will quickly shift south of the area by Tuesday morning with surface
winds shifts to the southwest providing modest WAA. This will allow
highs to rebound to near normal on Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.

The remainder of the week into the weekend continues to look dry
with near to above normal temperatures through the period.
Wednesday, subtle height rises will allow highs to rise into the
upper 30s (northeast) to near 50 (southwest). Wednesday night a mid-
level trough will dig through the Great Lakes region forcing a
backdoor cold front through the area. The frontal passage will remain
dry however, it will return temperatures to near normal on Thursday
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. A gradual warming trend is then
forecast for next weekend as an upper level ridge over the eastern
Rockies slowly shifts eastward through the period providing daily
height rises. Highs Friday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s
and will rise to the lower 40s to lower 50s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

No major changes to thinking compared to previous TAF period.
NW winds remain gusty overnight with potential for periodic low
to mid 30s kts gusts, gradually easing toward and after 12z.
Stratus wrapping around the larger system too will flirt with
the sites, but guidance remains consistent in trying to keep
MVFR decks just to the N/NE as the overall system translates
NE. As a result, have kept TAFs VFR, but with hints at potential
MVFR with SCT030 or so mentions overnight. Will continue to
monitor that wrap around/approaching stratus for any necessary
changes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis