St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS63 KEAX 122351
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler conditions forecast today through the weekend.
  Hard freeze expected Saturday morning.

- Temperatures returning to, or slightly above, seasonal
  normals next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A longwave trough is positioned over the eastern CONUS, with
ridging present over the western CONUS. The local area is
sandwiched between these two features with northerly winds and
CAA bringing cooler temperatures to the forecast. High
temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach 50F across
northern MO as a few low-to-mid level clouds float across the
area today. Surface high pressure builds into the Northern and
Central Plains this afternoon/evening allowing winds to diminish
and skies to clear. This will allow temperatures to fall into
the upper 20s tonight, bringing the first freeze of the season
for most areas across northern MO. High pressure and northerly
winds remain present into the weekend with highs only climbing
into the mid-to-upper 40s on Friday and Saturday. Saturday
morning will be the coldest of the forecast period with lows
dropping into the low 20s (some may even see temperatures in the
teens), making this the first hard freeze (temperatures below
28F) for most of the CWA.

By Sunday, upper-level ridging is expected to slide east over
the Central Plains, bringing height rises to the area. The
surface high pressure will also shift to the east and southerly
flow and WAA will return, bringing warmer temperatures back
into the forecast. Sunday should see high temperatures climb
back into the low 50s, with lows right around freezing. Each
subsequent day is expected to warm an additional 3-4 degF as the
ridge continues to build over the central CONUS.

Previous forecast cycles have noted a shortwave that is progged
to move across the Central Plains on Sunday afternoon. Models
have continued to shift the path of the shortwave and associated
surface system further south. At this point, all precipitation
from this system is expected to remain south of the CWA. The
next chance (20-30%) for precipitation comes Wednesday into
Thursday, but discrepancies between the models makes this a low
confidence forecast at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the sites. Winds will
remain out of the N to NNE, generally under 10 kts. While there
may be occasional FEW to SCT clouds in the 3-4 kft range, not
expected to impact overall flight conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Curtis