St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS63 KEAX 240357
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1057 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers with a few embedded lightning strikes expected tonight
  mainly west of a line from Lamoni- Moberly MO. Rainfall amounts
  are expected to be light totaling less than 0.25".

* Temperatures warm to mid week ahead of a cold front moving through
  the region.

* Breezy southerly winds expected next weekend, with the potential
  of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isentropic lift on the 305-310K surfaces is leading to weak shower
activity building into the area from Nebraska and eastern KS.  Very
dry air in the subcloud layer (nearly 10K feet) is going to limit
what reaches the ground, but could see a few sprinkles along the
Missouri/KS state late through the afternoon into the early evening
hours.

Towards midnight, low level warm air/moisture advection leads to
weak instability and could see spotty scattered showers develop.
Instability remains quite weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft,
but still should be able to support weak showers with an embedded
lightning strike here and there.  06Z NAM NEST hinted at the
potential for heavy rainfall with this activity overnight, but
successive model runs have contained precipitable water values to
~1.5" (which is near normal for this time of year).  Expect
accumulating precip to largely be west of a line from Lamoni Iowa to
Moberly MO with surface high to the east limiting eastward extent of
the precipitation shield.

Low level warm air advection weakens after 12Z Monday and expect
shower activity to weaken and shift southeast with time as short
wave builds east. Partial clearing should allow for a decent
temperature recovery on Monday, and even warmer conditions Tuesday
into Wednesday as upper ridge across the west expands east.

Ridge riding shortwave is expected to build into the Upper Midwest
Wednesday, with trailing cold front moving through the region
Wednesday morning.  Could see a few showers and storms with the
frontal passage, but timing may limit coverage.

Surface ridge moves through the region on Thursday with stronger
return flow Friday into next weekend.  With the gulf wide open,
ample moisture in place for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across the terminals
through the period. Only notable change vs previous (00z)
issuance is the removal of PROB30 showers at KSTJ with more
recent guidance suggesting lesser chances. Otherwise, hi-
res/CAM guidance continues to keep majority of overnight/morning scattered
shower/storm activity to the W/SW of the terminals, allowing
mentions to remain out of the TAFs. KC Metro terminals have seen
winds organize more out of the E, while KSTJ remains light and
variable at this time, but too will join the E/ESE prevailing
direction overnight. Daytime sustained winds may approach 10kts,
but remains out of the E to ESE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Curtis