St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS63 KEAX 042047
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/Severe storms expected tonight, with primary hazards
  being large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures and several additional rounds of
  showers/storms expected through Thursday.

- Brief lull in activity, before returning over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Through the day, dewpoint temperatures have managed to climb
into the low-mid 50s across the area as clearer skies are
allowing ample sunshine to increase temperatures to the high
70s/low 80s and generate instability at the surface around
1500-2000 J/kg. While greater moisture still remains further
south in south/south-central OK, our ingredients for severe
weather tonight are beginning to come together this afternoon.
As of 18z, WPC surface analysis drapes the cold front over far
northwestern MO. Through the day, the cold front will continue
to push southeastward as moisture is funneled from southwesterly
winds between high pressure to the southeast and a developing
surface low over the OK panhandle to the west/southwest. After
sunset, CAMs initiate discrete convection along the cold front
around 8-10pm. With environmental effective bulk shear around
35-40 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8 degC/km,
storms that form would be capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind during initial development. Through the night,
storms will eventually congeal into a larger line of storms as
the shortwave progresses eastward, with a greater wind threat
as the night progresses. It is expected that these storms will
decrease in severity as they fall behind the cold front through
the night and into the morning tomorrow. With this nighttime
activity, there is some threat of minor flooding with any storms
that train over an area for a prolonged time, especially in
areas with poor drainage. However, the greater concern for
flooding would be with more prolonged rainfall, which is
something that will need to be monitored in the next few days
with continued chances for additional rainfall.

Temperatures tomorrow will remain lower in the wake of the cold
front, with forecast highs only expected to rise to the high
50s under prevailing north/northeasterly winds. Continued
synoptic ascent from the passing shortwave will cause showers to
persist across the area through the morning and afternoon
tomorrow as the surface low and low-level shortwave trough
continue to progress east. The greater axis of precipitation
will remain off towards the southeast with better synoptic
forcing from the shortwave, but there will still be greater
moisture over our area for efficient precipitation with any
showers/storms, with forecast PWAT values around 1-1.5 inches
along the I-70 corridor south. With continued precipitation
chances as another low-level shortwave lifts across MO during
the day Wednesday, alongside greater forecast PWAT, there is
continued concern for river/small stream flooding, especially if
precipitation falls over areas that have previously seen
rainfall. Like previously mentioned, this concern will need to
be monitored with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

After this initial period of activity, amplified low-level ridging
will keep conditions dry going into Thursday. Continued
disturbances in overall atmospheric flow from an upper level
trough situated over the Hudson Bay will bring another shortwave
to the area by Friday, which will increase chances for
precipitation going into the late afternoon and evening. Greater
chances (10-30%) for precipitation exist further eastward along
better synoptic forcing from the low-level shortwave as it
ridges along the mean flow. By Saturday/Sunday, a series of
shortwaves will keep probabilities for precipitation higher
(30-50%) through the weekend, before upper-level ridging
advances from the west and keeps the end of the forecast period
dry. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 70s/low 80s
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Currently seeing clouds clearing out across all terminals, with
cloud cover persisting further south. Expecting gusts to fall
off around sunset at terminals, with winds shifting towards the
north through the night as a cold front passes beginning at 1z
at northernmost terminals and passing through all terminals
around 5-6z. Included a TEMPO group for convective activity that
is expected to fire up along this frontal boundary, with a
PROB30 further north at KSTJ for less confidence in
-TSRA potential. After the passage of TSRA, expecting -SHRA
 behind the cold front. Less confidence in the persistence of -SHRA
 going into the morning and afternoon, so have left out a
 PROB30 for this issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...SPG