St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

332
FXUS63 KEAX 040442
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Weather This Weekend

- Warmer By Middle of Work Week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A broad area of surface high pressure remains in place over the
Great Lakes, bringing southeasterly flow into our area. At 500mb, we
are under a broad ridge with westerly flow and with high pressure
centered over the southwestern CONUS. Therefore, conditions will
remain cool and dry this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid-
70s. A 500mb low-amplitude shortwave will progress east across the
Northern Plains as the weekend continues but it will remain north of
MO thanks to the 500mb ridge. However, this shortwave will bring a
weak cold front out of the Northern Plains through our area Sunday,
reinforcing the dry air mass and keeping highs in the 70s under more
northerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

H5 ridge axis will push eastward but gradually de-amplify due to a
few short-wave perturbations coming out of the Pacific Northwest. But
through the work week, this will push the thermal ridge far enough
east to provide WAA, pushing temperatures back into the upper 70s,
with highs in lower 80s for points south of Interstate 70. Most the
mid-level kinematic action is still progged to remain will north of
the area over the next 7 Days, and ensemble suites still keep
probabilities for measurable precipitation at 10 percent or less,
and therefore will maintain a dry forecast. This should provide
plenty of opportunity for the elevated river levels to continue to
fall through this week. Breezy south to southwesterly winds will be
possible on Tuesday as the surface anticyclone exits eastward
pushing a stronger pressure gradient through, along with boundary
layer mixing during the afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conds with clr skies are fcst thru the pd. Winds will be
lgt and vrb thru 14Z-15Z before becmg northerly btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IPC
LONG TERM...Krull
AVIATION...73