St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS63 KEAX 141110
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An active weather pattern will setup later Thursday and continue
  through Monday.
 - A few showers and non-severe storms continue to look
   possible this morning.
 - A very unstable airmass in place Friday may result in
   potential afternoon/ evening severe storms. Otherwise,
   chances increase overnight as a convective system may move
   through the area. Large hail and damaging winds are possible
   for the afternoon/evening activity. Threat becomes more
   damaging winds overnight.
 - Warm and humid conditions through the weekend will keep the potential
   for afternoon and/or overnight storms going Saturday and
   Sunday.
 - More widespread severe weather looks possible Monday as a
   cold front moves through a very unstable airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This morning, from a few hours before sunrise, through 15-16Z, an
area of isentropic ascent will move through the area. This lift
is noted from about 305K through 320K and may lead to isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms. These will be elevated in
nature with instability lifted from 7500-10000 ft. As such,
there is a fairly deep layer of dry air for any precipitation to
make it through. Have kept the slight chance PoPs for this time
frame given the high-based instability and deep, dry sub-cloud
layer. Late this evening and overnight, there remains a decent
chance that convection that initially develops to our west will
move into northern MO as a potentially strong MCS with potential
for damaging winds.

Friday, there is a conditional risk for severe storms during the
afternoon and evening, with better chances for storms during the
late evening and overnight. For the afternoon, strong instability
will develop as mid 60 dewpoints advect northward into the area.
It`s possible that a few areas reach their convective temperature
and we see storms develop within this strongly unstable airmass.
Storms may also develop on possible inverted surface trough
extending northeastward from a surface low in western Oklahoma.
Regardless, if storms are able to develop during the afternoon, they
are likely to become severe with large/very large hail possible and
damaging winds. What seems more likely to happen is that storms
develop to our west along and east of the boundary and ahead of a
subtle mid-level shortwave trough tracking through KS. These then
congeal and move into eastern KS and west-central and northern MO as
a potentially severe convective system with a damaging wind
potential.

For Saturday and Sunday, continued warm and humid conditions will
continue to lead a very unstable airmass over the area. The inverted
surface trough still looks to be present across the forecast area,
which would act as a a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm
development. But we`re also getting to a point that more mesoscale,
and at this point in time, unresolvable features may force storms as
well. So storms may develop  during the
afternoon given the instability present.

Focus then shifts to Monday, when a strong cold front will move
through an extremely unstable airmass with 3500-4500 SBCAPE present
and favorable deep-layer shear of 40+ kts. Storms seem likely to
develop during the afternoon along/just ahead of that cold front and
then quickly race to the east as the front swiftly moves through the
forecast area. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look
possible with this setup. Behind this front, cooler and less humid
conditions will prevail from Tuesday through the end of the
forecast.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. There is a small
chance for showers to move through this morning. Have added a
Prob30 group to account for this potential. Winds will increase
from the south later this morning with gusts of 25-30 kts
through the afternoon. Winds diminish after 00Z and gusts
decrease. But sustained winds of 10-15 kts are likely through
the overnight with occasional stronger gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CDB