St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

619
FXUS63 KEAX 082357
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
657 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Potential for severe storms tonight, but there is a high amount of
  uncertainty in how event might evolve.  Any storms that develop
  would be capable of heavy rainfall, along with the potential for
  damaging winds.

* Clearing on Tuesday into Wednesday is expected to lead to very
  warm and muggy conditions.  Heat indices in excess of 100 F are
  likely.

* Severe storms are expected Wednesday into Thursday as front
  drops southeast across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Very active weather pattern expected to continue this week.  Broad
low level warm air advection exists east of surface low across south
central KS. Fairly weakly capped environment across the region this
afternoon, and could see an isolated storm or two through the late
afternoon/early evening.  Steep lapse rates in the 600-525 mb range
aiding in destabilization this afternoon with ~2000 J/kg of CAPE
across the region.  While wind shear is relatively weak around 25
knots, could possibly get a brief strong storm through ample surface
heating late this afternoon into the evening hours, though there is
not much in the way of a lot of upper level support. Stratus across
eastern KS into central MO has led to

Weak short wave across north central KS as of 20Z is expected to
lead to the development of supercells across south central Nebraska.
 These storms could grow upscale into an MCS and build southeast
along the thermal ridge.  HRRR and RRFS have been been fairly
consistent with this ideal since the 12Z runs, while the
deterministic runs have really struggled coming up with a consistent
solution.  The 18Z HRRR has since pivoted to developing supercells
across eastern KS this evening, and brings in remnants of a complex
on Tuesday morning. The low level jet is initially focused across
Oklahoma, but builds north in time across eastern KS into western MO
after 06Z Tuesday. 18Z sounding from TOP is moist with 1.7" of
precipitable water, and warm cloud depths are in the 13-14K foot
range.  Point is, there is a quite a bit of uncertainty on how
things might evolve tonight, but potential for damaging winds, hail,
and heavy rainfall exists.

This uncertainty continues into Tuesday with the potential for low
clouds and lingering storms transitioning to very warm and muggy
conditions as upper level ridge . Depending on how quickly clouds
clear through the day, surface temperatures are expected to warm
into the upper 80s and potentially lower 90s F. With dew points well
into the 70s, heat indices are expected to warm into the upper 90s
to lower 100 F.  Tried to concentrate the heat advisory in areas
that should see clearing earlier in the day allowing for better
insolation.

Air you can wear continues into Wednesday ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. With increasing confidence, there
may be a need for heat headlines, especially with moisture pooling
ahead of the approaching front. Models have been inconsistent in the
timing of the front, but could see additional storms with the front
and are outlooked for severe potential Wednesday into Thursday.

Additional storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night as
shortwave drops into the Northern Plains this weekend, with a
potential deepening surface reflection. As can be expected and with
models not handling the near term well, there is a wide variety of
solutions for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Largely VFR conditions were seen across the area early this
evening, with MVFR ceilings around the KC metro. The main focus
for tonight will be on a thunderstorm complex expected to move
through the western portions of the area around 06-10z.
Uncertainty exists on just how far north this complex will
extend, but confidence is pretty high for flight impacts around
the KC metro and points south. IFR conditions are likely under
heavy rainfall, with strong wind gusts around 40 knots,
possibly higher. There could be more thunderstorms behind this
first round, but that remains much more uncertain. Looking
towards Tuesday, dry conditions are expected, with strengthening
south-soutwesterly flow, gusting around 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Schultz