St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS63 KEAX 110613
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
113 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with typical July heat and humidity levels are
  expected today through early next week.

- Temperatures will heat up towards the middle to latter half of
  next week, with a 65-95% chance of high temperatures in the
  90s Wednesday through Friday.

- Small daily rain chances (10-15%) return to the forecast
  Tuesday for areas south of I-70 and east of I-49.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

After an active period of weather, dry and seasonably warm
temperatures are expected today through Tuesday. At the
synoptic level, the pesky upper low that has brought the recent
daily thunderstorm chances will translate south and east of the
region. In its place, H5 ridging will increase to the west, as
an omega block become entrenched across the CONUS. The center of
the ridge will be displaced north and west of the forecast
area, resulting in H5 and H8 temperatures pretty close to
average values for the middle of July.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper low will be suppressed by
the ridge all the way to the Gulf Coast. This will allow some
moisture to advect north into the Lower MO River Valley,
potentially kicking off isolated showers or storms (10-15%
chance) during the heat of the day. Right now, this activity
looks to be confined to areas south of I-70 and east of I-49,
with the slightly greater chances being in the far southeast
parts of the forecast area.

As the stronger H5 ridging builds south and east into the region
by the latter half of next week, temperatures will heat up.
Latest LREF mean shows H5 and H8 temperatures warming to the
70-90th percentiles during this time. This will yield high
temperatures in the lower to middle 90s by Thursday and Friday.
Humidity values will be close to average, so heat index values
look to stay in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Dry N-NE surface flow will bring mostly clear skies and light N to
NE winds through the forecast period. Predominant speeds will be
around 4-7 kts. Some fog (MVFR with TEMPO IFR conditions) is
expected during the predawn hours at STJ, but will quickly dissipate
after daybreak.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Snyder