St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

471
FXUS63 KEAX 032147
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers continue through the afternoon hours.

- Colder and breezy this evening and into tonight.

- Near normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are
  expected tomorrow through Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Current H5 and water vapor analysis shows the center of the
mid/upper low over SE Nebraska, moving to the northeast.
Meanwhile, the surface cyclone is currently centered over
southern Iowa, with the attendant cold front draped north to
south across Missouri. Showers continue across portions of the
CWA, primarily toward Mid-Missouri and across NW Missouri into
eastern Kansas. Instability remains quite paltry, which has
limited thunderstorm development, and the most recent SPC
convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the
marginal risk (except for NE Missouri). Winds will eventually
turn west northwesterly as the surface low continues to move to
the northeast, with gusts up to 25 mph through the evening and
tonight. Patchy drizzle will be possible tonight with lingering
low level saturation and subtle forcing for ascent. Colder air
will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling
into the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover
should linger into tomorrow, with skies finally beginning to
clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoon
(although quite a bit of cloud cover should remain across
northern and NE Missouri), with afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.

Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end
of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s
and overnight lows around 40 degrees. Skies should finally
become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday
afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the
central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will
bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%). High
pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday
night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into
Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations,
with some patchy frost possible. A warming trend is likely this
weekend into early next week, with high temperatures returning
to the mid to upper 60s by Monday with dry conditions likely
persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue across portions of the
region, primarily across NE Kansas into NW and northern Missouri
closer to the surface low. This will likely continue through the
next few hours before exiting to the northeast. The surface low
and attendant cold front move through by later this afternoon,
with winds turning west northwesterly behind the front and gusts
increasing up to 22 knots or so. Gusts should finally relax by
around 12z Wednesday morning, with winds remaining out of the
WNW around 10 to 12 knots. MVFR CIGs are likely to continue
through today, tonight, and into Wednesday morning. VFR CIGs
should return by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW