St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS63 KEAX 122320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the weekend.

- Widespread rain likely (50% to 95+%) for late Friday night
  into Saturday evening. Totals over 1" possible especially
  along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor (50-70%).

- Significantly above normal temperatures are probable for
  early next week, especially Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A 500-hPa ridge is currently positioned over the central CONUS
with a deep trough over the West Coast. At the surface, high
pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region bringing
southerly flow across the area. Aside from a few high cirrus,
mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the
mid-to-upper 50s with the southern portion of the area likely
reaching 60F this afternoon. As the West Coast trough begins to
advance inland tomorrow, the ridge will become more amplified
causing temperatures to be warmer than today. Highs will be in
the low-to-mid 60s with light winds, setting the table for
another pleasant February day.

As the shortwave progresses across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico, surface cyclogenesis will occur in western TX
on Friday. Synoptic level forcing and moisture return will
arrive in the southwestern portion of the CWA Friday night into
Saturday morning with a broad area of precipitation spreading
across the area Saturday morning. Model guidance has steadied on
the northward extent of the precipitation Saturday afternoon
with the NBM showing a 70-95+% chance of rain along and south
of US-36 with a 50-70% chance northward to the MO/IA state line.

While the whole area will likely see some amount of rain, the
heaviest rain and highest totals will be focused across the
southern portion of the area and south of the area towards the
Ozark Plateau. A warm front will be draped across southern MO
or northern AR. Given that this will not be a mature system with
high moisture content north of the warm front and wrapping into
the system, the highest precipitation totals will be along and
south of the warm front where the forcing and best moisture
transport are co-located. With that said, NBM probabilities
give a 50-70% of 1" of rain along and south of I-70, which makes
sense given the prolonged nature of this event (rain could last
for 18+ hours south of I-70). Given the long duration that this
rain will fall over and the ground not being frozen, flooding
is not much of a concern with this system.

As the shortwave exits the area to the east, ridging will once
again build across the central CONUS allowing well above normal
temperatures to continue Sunday into next week. Tuesday looks to
be the warmest day as another shortwave moves across the
Rockies, inciting surface cyclogenesis. While record high
temperatures seem safe at this point (MCI record high is 74F on
Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday), NBM probabilities do
show a 25-35% chance of eclipsing 74F on Tuesday. A tight
pressure gradient across the Central Plains will bring gusty
southerly winds and moisture return to the area Tuesday as
well. Beyond Tuesday, models diverge quite a bit in solutions,
but all agree that the above normal temperatures will continue
through at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through
tomorrow evening. Variable and nearly calm winds will persist
over the TAF period with some high clouds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Macko