St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS63 KEAX 051728
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions this morning. Frost/freeze conditions
  possible again Monday night and Tuesday morning.

- Clear, cooler, and dry through the weekend, with chances
  (40-60%) of wintry precipitation returning Monday night into
  Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern and warmer temperatures beginning by
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

This morning a surface ridge is building into the forecast area
providing a good radiational cooling setup with clear skies and light
winds. This will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s
this morning with widespread frost likely and a light freeze
possible across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Today the
surface ridge axis will move over the forecast area. Despite copious
sunshine, weak mixing under northwest flow aloft will keep highs
near seasonal normals in upper 50s to lower 60s. Today into tonight,
a upper level shortwave will dig from the Canadian Plains into the
Great Lakes. This will force a backdoor cold front into the area
tonight into Monday. This will create a relatively large temperature
spread across the area on Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s
across northern Missouri, where the front will pass earlier in the
day, to the mid to upper 60 south where the front will pass later in
the day Monday. A jet streak will move through the region bringing
the chance (15-30%) for shower to northern Missouri during the day
Monday. Another jet streak will move through the region Monday night
into Tuesday morning which will bring the chance for rain and snow
showers to the forecast area. There is a chance for light snow
accumulation across northern Missouri where half an inch or less is
possible. In addition, Monday night into Tuesday morning a freeze is
expected for areas north of the Missouri River where temperatures
will drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. South of the Missouri
River temperatures will fall into the mid 30s. Showers will lift
north Tuesday as a warm front lifts north into the area. This will
again produce another wide temperature spread across the area with
highs in the mid to upper 40s across the northeastern CWA to the low
to mid 60s across the southwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the warm front will lift north of the
area with highs rising into the low to mid 70s. Despite, the NBM
producing chance PoPs (20-40%) during the day conditions should
remain dry until at least late in the day or Wednesday night. These
increased PoP chances Wednesday night will come courtesy of a upper
level trough moving from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains forcing an attendant cold front into the area. This will
bring the next chance of thunderstorms to the area. Showers will
linger into Thursday as the cold front stalls across the southern
CWA and weak upper level shortwaves traverse the region on quasi-
zonal flow aloft. A similar pattern will continue to keep conditions
unsettled on Friday. Friday night into Saturday, a upper level
trough will move from the California coast into the southwestern
CONUS. The upper level flow over the region will become
southwesterly, with several lead shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
the upper level trough over the southwest keeping the pattern active
through next weekend. Despite the active pattern expected, the
severe threat looks low at this time. Highs through this period
will generally range from the mid 60s to mid 70s which is 5-10
degrees above normal for early April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. NW winds to
occasionally gust into the teens kts through peak heating today,
otherwise sustained around 10kts. By this evening and through
the overnight, light/variable winds prevail across the sites
before settling out of the NE after 12z Monday up to around
10kts sustained.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Curtis