St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

021
FXUS63 KEAX 170543
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavy snow showers and a few snow squalls are
  possible through early this evening. Any accumulations will be
  very minor, but reduced visibility could cause brief travel
  impacts.

- Bitter cold temperatures are forecast Saturday into Saturday
  night. High temperatures Saturday will reach the upper 10s to
  lower 20s with morning lows in the in the single digits. Wind
  chill values will range from around +5 to -10 degrees.

- Temperatures will moderate slowly back towards normal January
  values going through next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Radar and traffic camera observations show an intense snow
squall moving through the Omaha metro area. This is developing
on the leading edge of the incoming Arctic air mass. With the
forecast snow squall parameter trending upward across the area,
expecting this activity to grow in size and intensity. This
band will arrive in NW MO in the next 1-2 hours, reaching the KC
metro around as early as 3 PM potentially but most likely
between 4 and 6 PM.

Main impacts will be brief periods of near- whiteout conditions
(around a half to a quarter mile or less in visibility) and
very gusty winds up to 40 mph or higher. This will potentially
cause travel issues during the evening rush hour. Have an SPS in
effect through 7 PM for snow squall potential across the entire
area and will issue Snow Squall Warning as needed for
individual bands of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The main push of Arctic air will move into the region tonight
bringing the snow showers and squall through early tonight.
Gradient wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected, with gust up to
40+ mph possible in heavier snow shower activity. As the best
forecast exits the region tonight, any snow activity will
diminish or taper to flurries.

The core of the Arctic air mass will become centered over the
area on Saturday, with temperatures at 850 mb falling to around
negative 20C, which is around the 1st to 5th percentile. This
will yield high temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal,
in the upper 10s to upper 20s from north to south. Low
temperatures by Sunday morning will fall into the single digits
with wind chill values of +5 to -15 degrees forecast during the
morning hours, with the coldest temperatures in northern MO.

The deep troughing over the central CONUS will shift to the
east of the region on Sunday, and temperatures will begin to
moderate slowly, as an mid-level baroclinic zone sets up over
the area. However, it will not be a linear warming trend, as
additional lobes of Arctic air brush against the forecast area.
This will result in high temperatures near normal January values
on Sunday, but falling back into the middle to upper 20s on
Monday/MLK Jr. Day before rebounding again back to normal values
for the middle of next week. As the overall synoptic pattern
remains dry/anticyclonic, no precipitation chances are expected
until Thursday into Friday. Then, another shortwave/clipper will
descend into the region from Canada, bringing a small chance of
rain, or a rain/snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Periods of SHSN remain possible through the next few hours
across the sites, with most likely culprits being
KSTJ/KMCI/KMKC. With the current trajectory of upstream SN, KIXD
may miss out on much of the remaining potential. NW winds will
remain on the gusty side at times, with occasional gusts
toward and in excess of 30kts possible at times. Majority of
gusts more likely to reside in the 20s kts. Windy conditions
continue through much of the daytime Saturday before easing
toward and after 00z. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities
too may accompany any SHSN activity early in the period, then a
more expansive shield of MVFR ceilings may be seen after 15z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Snyder
DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Curtis