St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS63 KEAX 072101
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
401 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming up through the weekend into early next week, with
  highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 100s likely (greater
  than 60 percent chance) Saturday through at Tuesday.

- Slight chances for storms (mostly less than 30 percent)
  through Sunday (with best chances north of U.S. Highway 36).
  If storms occur, an isolated strong to severe storm is
  possible, with damaging winds the main threat.

- Chances for storms increase in the middle to latter portions
  of next week, with temperatures cooling down as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mid/upper troughing remains across the Upper Midwest with a 45+
knot H5 jet extending from southern Saskatchewan into
northwestern Iowa. This is pushing a cold front southeastward
into southern Minnesota, NW Iowa, and NE Nebraska, and has
helped initiate convection across northern Iowa this afternoon.
Convection may continue to develop along the southwest flank of
the current convection, and move south southeastward toward NE
Missouri. Most CAMs dissipate storms before they reach the
Missouri border, but some (namely the NAM Nest) want to bring a
cluster of storms or even an MCS into our CWA across northern
and NE Missouri after 10 pm tonight. SPC brings a slight risk
for severe storms all the way to the Missouri/Iowa border, with
the marginal risk extending southward to roughly the US Highway
36 corridor.

By tomorrow, a 598 dam H5 high sets up over the Four Corners,
with increasing mid levels heights creeping in over our CWA from
the west. High temperatures tomorrow should be a couple/few
degrees warmer, with afternoon heat indices reaching or
exceeding 100 degrees for areas long and south of the Interstate
70 corridor. While our PoPs for tomorrow afternoon at this time
are below 10%, cannot completely rule out a small complex of
showers/storms developing over eastern Nebraska and moving into
NW Missouri. There will be a chance for an MCS to develop over
Iowa late Saturday night as the southerly low level jet ramps
up, with this potentially moving into northern Missouri. Both
of these potential scenarios have prompted SPC to maintain a
marginal risk for severe storms for most of the CWA for tomorrow
and tomorrow night. The gradual warming trend is expected to
continue into Sunday and into early next week, with afternoon
highs forecast to reach the mid 90s and afternoon heat indices
approaching the mid 100s (potentially prompting the issuance of
a heat advisory, stay tuned for that!). Cooler temperatures and
unsettled weather are probable for the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, although cannot
completely rule out a period of MVFR or IFR VIS at STJ Saturday
morning. Light SW winds should become variable tonight,
remaining light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW