St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS63 KEAX 241735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most
  locations.

- Seasonal temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 80s) expected for
  Tuesday through Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening into
  Tuesday night.

- Hot and humid conditions likely this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region
between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western
CONUS and troughing across the NE CONUS and into the Mid
Atlantic. At the surface, the center of the high has drifted
off to the east a bit, but winds remain light and out of the
east to southeast. Conditions this early morning are quite
pleasant for late August, with temperatures in the mid to upper
60s for most locations (upper 50s across NE Missouri). A few
light showers are ongoing across the region as of 3 AM, but
these are still dealing with dry low levels. The south
southeasterly oriented low level jet is beginning to strengthen
a bit, but the strongest corridor of the LLJ will remain west of
our CWA from roughly Salina into NE Oklahoma. CAMs suggest
additional convective development within a few hours, but this
should remain west and southwest of the CWA within the better
LLJ dynamics (although perhaps some showers and storms could
make their way into Linn County KS). Meanwhile, a subtle
shortwave and vort max translating through the northwesterly
flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge has
initiated an MCS across extreme SE South Dakota and into NE
Nebraska. This will continue to drift to the south southeast
this early morning, but should dissipate before reaching far NW
Missouri. Dry conditions are likely for this afternoon, with
decent high level cloud cover lingering through early to mid
afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon should range between
around 80 degrees across NE Missouri to the mid 80s elsewhere
(upper 80s south of the KC metro toward Linn County KS and Bates
County MO). We will get some moisture return today, with dew
points increasing from their current values in the upper 50s to
lower 60s to the mid 60s to perhaps even upper 60s.

The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly status quo heading
into tomorrow. The H5 high remains centered over New Mexico and
into west Texas, with mid/upper troughing across the NE CONUS
and another upper trough moving across Saskatchewan into the
Upper Midwest, flattening the ridge up north, as NW flow remains
in place over the CWA. Temperatures should rebound into the mid
to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon (lower 90s possible toward the
Butler area) with dew points increasing further by a couple
degrees. Weak height falls and strong daytime heating is likely
to initiate scattered storm coverage across portions of south
Central Nebraska into northern Kansas by mid to late Tuesday
afternoon, with this moving off to the east southeast through
the remainder of the afternoon hours and into Tuesday
evening/night. The question is just how far east convection will
be able to maintain itself, but SPC has put far NE Kansas and NW
Missouri into a marginal risk for severe storms for Tuesday
evening, with chance PoPs (30 to 40%) across much of the CWA for
Tuesday evening/night.

For Wednesday through Friday, the H5 high is progged to migrate
over the Desert Southwest, with high amplitude ridging across
the Rockies and as far north as the Canadian Plains of Alberta
and Saskatchewan, with longwave upper troughing extending
southward from Hudson Bay all the way through the Great Lakes
and into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to place our CWA
beneath northwesterly mid/upper flow. Daily highs should be in
the mid to upper 80s (right at seasonal normals) with generally
dry conditions expected. By this weekend, the upper ridge axis
is progged to drift further east, so closer to our CWA, as an
upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific Northwest. This
should lead to increased mid level heights and warmer 850 temps,
translating to surface high temperatures into the upper 80s to
low to mid 90s and increased humidity for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with a light easterly
wind becoming northeasterly Tueday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...WFO EAX