St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS63 KEAX 291036
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat will build into the region this weekend and prevail
  through the remainder of the forecast. Heat index values will
  range from near 100 to 105 Sunday through Friday.

- Low chances for precipitation across northern Missouri
  (15-25%) tonight into Sunday morning.

- Next chance for storms Wednesday night into Thursday across
  northeast Kansas and northern Missouri (15-25%)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The main forecast concern this forecast period will be the well
above normal temperatures that being to build into the area today
and are forecast to continue through next week. These above normal
temperatures will come courtesy of a upper level ridge which is
centered over the southwestern CONUS and southern Rockies this
morning. Today this feature will build eastward into the southern
and central Plains providing height rises across the region. This
coupled with modest WAA will drive highs into the upper 80s to mid
90s. Tonight, a upper level shortwave will round the ridge and move
into northern Missouri as a 45-50kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the
area. Despite lacking moisture, a few showers or thunderstorms (15-
25%) will be possible across northern Missouri overnight into
tomorrow morning. Tomorrow the upper level ridge axis builds
directly over the region. This coupled with strong WAA will push
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the mid 90s to
near 100. The upper level ridge will remain in control over the area
through Tuesday with highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100.
Fortunately, dewpoints in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday will keep
heat index values from being much warmer than the air temperatures
with heat indicies ranging between 95-104.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a upper level shortwave trough will
move from the central Rockies into the central Plains and into the
Upper Midwest. This will cause the ridge to flatten over the region
as the ridge axis shifts into the southeastern CONUS. This will push
a cold front towards the area Wednesday however highs will still
remain in the mid 90s to near 100. However, better moisture may pool
out ahead of this front driving heat index values into the 100-105
range. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the front may
reach northern Missouri with a nocturnal LLJ focused on that area.
This may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop across
northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri (15-25%). Despite the
chance for morning storms, temperatures are still forecast to reach
the mid to upper 90s again on Thursday. By the end of the week, the
local area will be on the western periphery of the upper level ridge
over the southeastern CONUS which may allow shower and thunderstorm
chances to continue Thursday night into Friday (15-25%).

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn highs fcst
thru the pd. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the S btn
7-12kts but will incr to nr 15kts with gusts 20-25kts aft
15Z-16Z. Winds will begin to relax btn 23Z-01Z when they will
wkn to 10-15kts while remaining out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73