St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS63 KEAX 271818
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
118 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and isolated storms currently moving across the
  region. Low chances (20%) for redevelopment this afternoon for
  severe storms.

- Prolonged period of hot and humid conditions beset the region
  with heat indicies routinely in the 105-110F range. Poor heat
  relief overnight with min temperatures only dropping into the
  mid 70s. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for Sunday
  through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Yesterday`s stalled boundary to the south has reversed course and is
now moving north as a warm front with a surge of higher dewpoints.
There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how this
afternoon`s convective threat will play out. The 12Z sounding out of
TOP showed that models were really struggling with the low level
moisture brought about by both the low stratus and fog. Satellite
has shown some clearing over our southwest with some storms moving
across our southeast likely along the warm front. Morning ACARS do
show some prominent capping in the low levels which may become more
pronounced if the low level clouds linger longer.

Over the last several hours a few showers have developed along a
CAPE gradient moving into the metro. These showers are not expected
to be very impactful and will continue on their northeast
trajectory. Additional development behind this initial line of showers
still looks low (20% chance) with mid level ridging suppressing much
of the activity over the area. Any activity that does manage to
develop would find itself in a favorable environment for severe
storms. High instability across the region due to the influx of
southerly winds and increased dewpoints. Bulk shear is initially
lacking to start the afternoon but will increase with the arrival of
a shortwave after 4PM. Thereafter we have some higher DCAPE values
which may lend itself to some damaging winds should a stronger storm
develop. SPC has the region in a marginal risk (1/5) for the severe
storm threat today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

An omega blocking pattern emerges on Sunday an looks to hold firm
through most of next week. A deepening trough over western CONUS
with a strong ridge over the Midwest will lead to a heat dome
engulfing the region. Strong surface heating will regularly lead to
max temperatures in the 90s. The added impact of southerly winds
driving dewpoints up will lead to heat indicies in the triple
digits. Poor overnight recovery with temperatures only dropping into
the mid and upper 70s. Heat risk will routinely be in the major risk
for the region on Monday with a few areas in the extreme risk by
Tuesday. Due to this prolonged period of heat we have issued an
Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday. This may need to be
extended all the way through next weekend if the blocking
pattern does not budge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A few showers are moving across the metro at the start of the
forecast period. These showers have been shallow and are not
expected to grow upscale leading to a low lightning threat. After
these showers clear the area we will see VFR conditions, additional
development for this afternoon is unclear, but confidence is not
high enough to include a mention in the TAFs, especially given the
latest trends with the high res guidance. Early tomorrow morning we
will have a band of stronger winds in the low levels leading to wind
shear concerns. Winds will begin to mix after sunrise leading to
gusty south winds through Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday
     night for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday
     night for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Britt
LONG TERM...Britt
AVIATION...Britt