St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS63 KEAX 072322
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the
  rest of the week, and into the weekend.

- Dry and pleasant weather also expected through the rest of the
  week, before a potential return of rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current synoptic patterns of zonal flow to our north have allowed
for a return of seasonably warm temperatures into the 80s, along
with calm conditions and overall fair weather. A high pressure
center located in the upper Great Plains has also given influence to
our weather pattern, and will continue to progress to our north into
the Great Lakes region. The high will allow for light and variable
winds on Thursday, and southerly winds on Friday. We will continue
to see seasonable temperatures, fair skies, and overall, pleasant
weather for the rest of the workweek, and into the weekend.

Into the weekend, a surface low pressure will begin to develop over
the upper Great Plains, and into southern Canada. Additionally, an
upper-ridge and an upper-high pressure system will allow for
southerly flow and warm-air advection for temperatures to remain in
the 80s. The pressure differences over the central part of the CONUS
will allow winds to increase this weekend with occasional gusts,
especially for areas across Northwestern Missouri. Our other story
for this weekend will be the eventual remnants of Tropical Storm
Isaias, which as of Wednesday afternoon, is building just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance will progress northward and
be to our east by Saturday night, and continue to travel eastward on
Sunday as a result of shortwave development with respect to the jet
stream beginning to dig southward. Not expecting any impacts from
the tropical depression, with the exception of increased cloud cover
in our eastern counties.

As the weekend progresses, a deepening troughing feature is expected
to begin to come in contact with a cut-off low off the coast of the
Pacific. In addition, an upper-low will develop over the California
coast. This will result in both temperature and moisture advection
into early next week. The trough is expected to come through the
region into the middle of next week, which will bring our next
chances for more seasonable temperatures and rainfall. There is
still uncertainty of exact timing, and amount of rainfall, as
ensemble spread is much higher beginning on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. A brief period of
light variable winds are expected overnight/early Thursday
morning before settling out of the east/southeast mid-morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bjork
AVIATION...Macko