St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS63 KEAX 290904
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
404 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy today.

- Record highs likely on Monday, with gusty southerly winds once
  again.

- Cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible to
  likely Wednesday through Saturday, with locally moderate to
  heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a 586 dam high centered over southern
Texas with low amplitude ridging extending northward through
much of the west central CONUS. At H85, a 30+ knot southwesterly
oriented low level jet has developed out ahead of the H85 and
surface low centered over South Dakota, helping keep surface
winds around 10 knots this early morning. After a couple days of
cooler temperatures, we should warm up into the mid 70s across
the region this afternoon, with southerly surface winds
increasing by late morning and continuing through the afternoon
hours (sustained 15 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph). Moisture
return will resume today, allowing for dew points to rise from
the mid 20s this morning to the mid to upper 40s by mid to late
afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns tempered.

By tonight an upper trough is progged to enter into British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, entering into the Northern
Plains by Monday afternoon with a surface low deepening over
western Nebraska. This will result in a hot and windy day for
our CWA, with temperatures forecast to rise into the mid to
even upper 80s on Monday afternoon, which would once again break
records across the CWA, along with SSW winds gusting up to 30
to 35 mph. Additionally, moisture return should continue, with
dew points rising into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to continue eastward
into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning, sending a
cold front toward our CWA from the northwest. Guidance still
differs a bit with respect to the timing of the front, but the
front should enter into NW Missouri sometime late Tuesday
morning, making its way through the KC metro sometime mid to
late Tuesday afternoon, and completely through the CWA by
Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
along and ahead of the front, especially toward Mid Missouri on
Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The threat for severe weather
remains relatively low at this time.

Much cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s) are expected for
Wednesday and Thursday, with shower and thunderstorm chances
continuing as the front is likely to stall somewhere in the
vicinity of northern Arkansas and another upper trough likely
moving into the plains on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Recent models suggest a deep, closed mid/upper low and
accompanying trough entering the north central Plains on Friday
night into early Saturday, ejecting to the northeast on
Saturday with a long trailing cold front extending southward
from the surface low across northern Minnesota moving west to
east through the region. This would bring relatively high
chances (70%) for yet another round of showers and thunderstorms
for Friday night into Saturday. With the threat for multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into Saturday,
current forecast rainfall totals range from around 1.5" across
NW Missouri to as high as 4" toward the Ozark Plateau in the
southeastern portions of the CWA. Despite the potentially
substantial rainfall totals, the rain should fall across a long
enough period of time that flash flooding concerns are
relatively low at this time (only marginal risk for excessive
rainfall from WPC on Wednesday night into Thursday), however,
the ECWMF EFI and SOT does suggest at least the potential for an
usual rainfall event on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail across the sites and will do
so through the period. Winds largely unidirectional out of the S
to SSW, with increasing sustained and gusts by mid-morning
Sunday. Expect sustained winds toward the upper teens kts at
times with gusts often into the mid 20s kts and occasionally
into the upper 20s kts. Primarily periods of SCT/BKN higher
level cloud cover too continue to stream across the large area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...Curtis
CLIMATE...BT