St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS63 KEAX 231803
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
103 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally warm temperatures continue through the weekend and
  early next week. Broader cool down through the week.

- Widespread precipitation chances difficult to come by until at
  least the middle of next week.

  - Far far NW Missouri / NE Kansas may see chances (10-25
    percent) Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There really just is not much sensible weather, at least changes, to
speak of. Fortunately, that tends to mean pleasant overall
conditions across the area...

The large scale mid-upper level pattern has a good amount of
activity within it over the coming days, just not likely to affect
the immediate area. Currently the pattern is highlighted by a trough-
ridge-trough pattern across CONUS with the ridge axis just a hair
west of the Missouri. The western CONUS trough remains expected to
split with a piece riding inland and NE around the stout ridge and
another piece digging into southern California and becoming a cutoff
low. The aforementioned northeastward moving piece will yield a
developing surface low and attendant cold front by Saturday, but its
rapid movement into Canada leaves little support for the front to
push much across the Central Plains. This too is bolstered by the
lagging cutoff low beginning to move further inland, preventing any
trailing surface high support to develop. With broad surface high
pressure remaining over the eastern CONUS, all of this is to say
that dry conditions and southerly winds remain through the weekend.
With little change in mixing depth, wind speeds, or 925-850mb temps,
expect highs to be quite similar to yesterday... mid to upper 70s
for most and a few touching 80. Of which would be upwards of 10-15+
deg above normal.

To start the work week, confidence in the broad pattern evolution
remains high within GEFS/ECMWF ENS. This can be gleaned a few ways,
including within temp spreads. Both ensemble systems tend to suggest
25th/75th spreads of ~5 deg F or less, with that strongest within
the ECMWF ENS through Tuesday/Wednesday. The existing mid-level
ridge will continue to keep conditions on the dry side as it
deflects western CONUS cutoff low (becoming an open wave). The more
southerly path of this trough will more substantially flatten the
ridge and bring about an outside shot at some light precipitation
over far W/NW areas of the CWA as early as Monday evening. Given the
pre-existing very dry air mass, it would likely take a notable
southerly/easterly trend in the trough path to see measurable
precipitation chances. Generally expect temperatures to remain above
normal but likely a few degrees cooler than the weekend, in the low
to mid 70s, with an uptick in cloud cover and slightly cooler 925-
850mb temps.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance both begin to diverge more
significantly mid-late week, primarily differing in their handling
of a series of northern stream shortwaves and larger troughs/cutoff
lows. Difficult to pin down much in the way of confidence in any
frontal or precipitation timing. The `strongest` takeaways over the
latter half of the work week would be best chances for cooling
temperatures, and increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. South winds around 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-20
knots possible mainly north of and including STJ. Gusts curtail
after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel