St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

011
FXUS63 KEAX 202308
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south southwesterly winds
  are expected today through Thursday.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday into
  Thursday night. Damaging wind will be the main threat.

- Several rounds of storms will be possible Thursday through
  Sunday which may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Today, a upper level trough is pushing into the west coast causing
upstream upper level ridging to build over the central Rockies. This
is providing modest height rises over the local area. In addition, a
surface front extends from the Upper Midwest back to the southwest
into the western High Plains. Out ahead of the front, WAA is
strengthening over the local area driving highs into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Tonight into tomorrow, strong WAA will continue over the
area ahead of the front as the upper level ridge moves into the
western Plains. Continued height rises couple with the strong WAA
will allow temperatures to further warm into the mid 70s to lower
80s. Tomorrow night the cold front will sag towards the area as a
upper level shortwave moves through the Great Lakes region. A
isolated shower/storm of two will be possible (20%) across north-
central and northeastern Missouri. Wednesday, the upper level ridge
axis will build over the local area however, WAA will not be as
strong as Tuesday. Consequently, high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler in the mid 70s to near 80...which is still about 10
degrees above normal for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

By Thursday, the upper level trough that moved into the west coast
Monday/Monday night will move into the northern and central Plains
pushing a cold front into the area. A moist environment will be in
place with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s with modest instability
with MUCAPE values between 1500-2000J/Kg and 40-50kts of effective
shear. This would support the potential for severe storms with
model soundings supporting linear storms capable of damaging winds
being the main threat. PWATs are around 1.2"-1.4" which would
provide locally heavy rain however, the front is expected to remain
progressive enough to limit the flooding potential. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the upper
level flow becomes quasi-zonal across the region with several
shortwaves moving through the area. These storms are not expected to
be severe however. Sunday, a strong shortwave will move through the
area bring additional storm chances. Instability will be limited
keeping severe potential low however an additional round of heavy
rain is possible which may produce flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions with gusty south winds through the period. Models
are hinting at a stratus deck expanding north after 21Z Tuesday,
but have not included mention in this forecast cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...BT