St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS63 KEAX 281037
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
537 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A prolonged period of hazardous heat begins building into the
  region today. An Extreme Heat Warning will take effect this
  afternoon at 1 PM CDT and remain in effect through late
  Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Today, blocking high pressure will establish itself across the
central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Analysis of 500 mb
clusters and mid-range guidance suggest that this upper-level
pattern is likely to persist through the end of the work week with
the first indications of anticyclolysis not apparent until Saturday.

Temperatures in excess of 90F are likely this week, with REFS
probabilities of exceedance hovering around 90% areawide today and
Monday. With dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, heat indices are
expected to soar into the mid 100s with some areas potentially
approaching 110F. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the
mid/upper 70s for much of the week as well, potentially perpetuating
hazardous heat impacts. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk is
expected by Monday, with a signal for Extreme (Level 4 of 4)
HeatRisk first appearing in central Missouri around the same time.
With high confidence in a multi-day stretch of hazardous heat, an
Extreme Heat Warning will go into effect at 1 PM CDT this afternoon
and will remain in effect through at least late Thursday night. An
extension in time or additional heat products may be needed in
future forecast updates.

Outside of heat, windy conditions are expected to close out the
weekend and continue into the early portions of the week ahead,
likely due to the entrainment of rising thermals from solar heating.
Forecast soundings suggest 25-35 kts of momentum transfer through
Tuesday evening. The signal for strong gusts becomes less impressive
by mid/late week but potential for ~20 kt gusts still exists through
Friday, though this is mainly north of US-36.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the TAF sites during this TAF
forecast period. There are some low CIGs over northeastern
Missouri this morning and these will continue to push northeast
and thin this morning. Winds are beginning to pick up this
morning and will be sustained 14-18kts and gusting up to 30kts
this afternoon. This evening, winds and gusts will relax a bit
but will remain elevated overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT
     Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT
     Thursday night for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...Wilson