St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

831
FXUS63 KEAX 261112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week, before
  cooling down by the weekend.

- Chances (15-30%) for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, with greater
  chances (50-70%) Wednesday evening across northern MO.

- Wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

If you were to look up "boring" in the dictionary, you might see a
snapshot of our current synoptic pattern. Amplified mid-level
ridging persists over much of the eastern third of the CONUS, which
has been gradually battered down by impulses from the north and west
over the past couple of days. Broad troughing over the Intermountain
West is projected to continue this trend, further pushing the ridge
axis off towards the east with its coincident surface high sliding
off towards the Ohio River Valley as it traverses the upper flow.
Even with this shift in the pattern oncoming, deep
south/southwesterly winds will continue to contribute to daytime
highs in the high 70s for today.

With the adjustment of the ridge axis off towards the east, the
placement of the forecast area under the periphery of the ridge will
open us up to greater opportunities for precipitation in the coming
days. By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a shortwave will lift
over the Central Plains along the periphery of the ridge, and bring
with it a narrow corridor of moisture. This will work to moisten a
relatively dry vertical profile, and bring chances (15-30%) of rain.
Synoptic ascent doesn`t look overly impressive during this
timeframe, with the primary shortwave having lifted off further
northeast by the time precipitation begins across the area. However,
interrogating guidance, it looks like convergence with a quasi-
stationary boundary draped behind the lifting surface low collocated
with a narrow corridor of vorticity/weak dCVA aloft and weak flow
over the boundary in the low-levels will contribute to precipitation
chances Tuesday morning. With the location of the boundary remaining
just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation
chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the
early half of Tuesday. Greater cloud debris and precipitation
potential will mitigate high temperatures for Tuesday, bringing them
closer to average at around the low/mid 70s. Another opportunity for
precipitation will come late Tuesday night, with a more vigorous
shortwave lifting from the Southern Plains across central MO.
Precipitation potential looks to be primarily driven by synoptic
ascent from dCVA and the LLJ tapping into residual moisture in the
low to mid-levels, keeping chances (15-30%) around through Wednesday
morning. An enhanced pressure gradient that develops with a strong
surface high over the northeastern CONUS and a weak cyclone
developing off the lee of the Rockies will bring southerly winds up
on Wednesday to ~15-20 mph. With gradual clearing of precipitation,
temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day
on Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening, yet another opportunity for precipitation
arises with a cold frontal boundary draping down across the north-
central CONUS. Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some
instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates
remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe
potential with any activity that develops. However, with this kind
of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need
to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe
potential. Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of
the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest
chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening. Guidance
remains in pretty good agreement for precipitation chances
continuing through the latter half of the week with continued
disturbances in the upper-level flow, which isn`t great news for
those who prefer treats over tricks... Something to look forward to
is temperatures cooling off by the end of the forecast period, with
strong warm flow cut off to the south and greater east/southeasterly
flow. However, at this point in the forecast, greater deviations in
guidance arise with the synoptic pattern. So, as much as cooler
temperatures sound great right about now, trends will continue to be
monitored in the long term to see if this solution becomes more
apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR prevailing through the period. Dense high clouds scatter out
by late morning, before filling back in by 2-3Z. No flight
impacts anticipated, though, so left out mention in TAF. Winds
increasing out of the south between 5-10 kts during the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG