St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS63 KEAX 281125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for showers this afternoon, with greater chances
  (50-70%) towards southern MO.

- Cooler temperatures and quieter conditions overall, with
  scattered chances for precipitation near the end of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Quieter weather will persist through the overnight and into the
morning. Presently, the upper level trough is situated west of
the Hudson Bay, as the shortwave that triggered our recent round
of severe weather lifts off towards the Great Lakes. Surface
high pressure will maintain northerly winds, and help drier,
cooler conditions prevail in the short term. Going into the
afternoon, a passing surface low and it`s associated shortwave
trough will reinvigorate precipitation in southern MO. Low-
level moisture transport will be mitigated through the day by
surface high pressure promoting advection of drier air through
the forecast area, keeping higher chances (50-70%) of
showers/storms further south. However, greater upper level
moisture transport broadly encompassing central/northern MO and
broad-scale lift ahead of the shortwave will push slight chances
(10-30%) of precipitation further north through the day. In
addition to this, instability will greatly remain further south
than our forecast area, minimizing the potential for severe
storms during the day. However, some rumbles of thunder are
still possible with whatever instability is able to generate in
the atmosphere during the day.

After today, the upper level trough is progged to dig down
towards the Great Lakes. As this trough propagates and
eventually stalls over the Great Lakes behind an amplified ridge
over the Atlantic, it will place us under a generally
north/northwesterly flow regime for the next few days. This will
help keep our temperatures cooler and conditions drier to close
out what has been a very active past month. Embedded shortwaves
within the broader upper level pattern will invigorate slight
chances (10-20%) of precipitation Thursday afternoon along a
convergent boundary. This blocking pattern in the upper-levels
will persist, with amplified shortwave ridging and surface high
pressure building into our area as the upper level trough
wobbles eastward with momentum from a passing shortwave trough.
This will help keep conditions dry over the weekend. Another
series of disturbances in the flow will invigorate low-end
chances for precipitation to end out the forecast period, aided
by southerly surface flow transporting warmer, moister air from
the south as the surface high traverses east. Increased model
divergence at this point decreases overall confidence in
precipitation during this period, however.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Fuel-alternate ceilings expected to through the morning, before
rising to high-end MVFR by 16z. Through the afternoon,
expecting ceilings to gradually lift to low-end VFR. Winds
expected to prevail northerly, shifting northeasterly through
the day before shifting back out of the north around 3-4z,
sustained around 5-10 kts. There is a low chance for light
showers to impact downtown terminals, but with increasingly
drier conditions indicated by guidance, have elected to keep
PROB30 mentions for showers out of this TAF issuance.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG