St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

389
FXUS63 KEAX 271751
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1151 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Brief warm up today into Wednesday, though temperatures remain
  below normal. Small snow chances return late week with the return
  of arctic air.

* Temperatures return closer to normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Temperatures have steadied if not warmed through the night with
brisk southwest flow warming temperatures at 925 Hpa to within a few
degrees of freezing. A cold front associated with a low centered
across the western Great Lakes region is expected to slide south
across the region this morning.  925 hpa temperatures tumble about 8
degrees C at 925 hpa this afternoon behind the front limiting
warming potential. Mid and upper level cloud cover will also be on
the increase behind the front. This will also limit late day
warming, but also reduce radiative cooling this evening, before
gradually clearing from north to south overnight. Light winds and
dry near surface airmass will lead to good radiative conditions
tonight with surface high pressure passing overhead allowing
temperatures to fall back into the single digits.

As the surface high builds south of the area on Wednesday, low level
flow turns west-southwest once again leading to nice substantial
warming.  This warming doesn`t last however as weak flow Wednesday
evening becomes easterly as area of low pressure develops in eastern
Colorado building southeast through western KS into central
Oklahoma. As the trough passes to the south, east to northeast flow
increases in the near surface layer drawing cooler air into the
region from the north. As the arctic air builds south on Thursday,
there is the potential for a few flurries. LREF ensemble suggest the
potential for 20-35% of accumulating snow along and north of highway
36.  This may be a bit overdone as air in the lowest 5000 feet below
the cloud base is very dry. Cold air continues to build into the
region on Friday under northerly flow, pushing wind chill values
back below zero with the potential for wind chills to approach cold
weather advisory criteria north of Kirksville MO early Friday
morning.

A disorganized mid level wave tops the upper level ridge across the
western US on Friday and builds southeast into the Northern Plains
on Saturday and into the Central US on Sunday. While this wave also
appears to be moisture starved, LREF ensemble continues to indicate
small chances (10-30%) of minor snow accumulation across the region
Sunday morning.  Once this wave passes east, upper level ridge
across the west expands east allowing the area to break out of the
deep freeze of the last few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions expected across the area over the TAF period.
Light, northwest winds will persist through sunset before a
gradual shift to southwesterly winds overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Macko