St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

577
FXUS63 KEAX 070354
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to increase through the weekend and
  into Monday.

- Heat indices above 100 degrees are probable for Sunday and
      Monday afternoon.

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next few
  days. A few strong storms may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Broad mid/upper troughing remains in place over the north
central CONUS, with the stationary surface boundary draped from
NE Missouri into central MO and turning westward south of the KC
metro. Showers and storms have finally exited the CWA to the
east, but overcast skies remain, keeping temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s for most locations as of 3 PM this afternoon.
Robust convection has blossomed across SW Missouri in the
vicinity of Springfield. Can`t completely rule out some
convective development in the far southern or southeastern
portions of the CWA later this afternoon/evening along/ahead of
the stalled boundary, and SPC has these areas within a marginal
risk for severe weather. However, CAM guidance suggests
convective activity should remain south and southeast of our
CWA. Low level jet induced convection is likely to develop
across east central Kansas late tonight, but this should by and
large remain west of our CWA.

Temperatures should heat up tomorrow as we become more under the
influence of the 597 dam H5 high over the Four Corners region.
Another shortwave trough is progged to descend out of Canada and
into the Upper Midwest tomorrow, bringing a cold front north to
south with it, which is likely to trigger convection across
southern Minnesota into northern Iowa by late morning and early
afternoon. It is possible that this convection could grow
upscale into an MCS and could potentially stay together and
reach northern Missouri by tomorrow evening, although CAM
guidance varies significantly at this time. That being said, SPC
is concerned enough about this possibility that is has included
northern MO (along and north of US Highway 36) within a marginal
risk for severe storms for tomorrow.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, the western
ridge continues to exert increased influence over our region,
with temperatures and heat indices on the rise. Heat indices
should approach 100 degrees for southern portions of the CWA on
Saturday, with heat indices flirting with heat advisory criteria
on Sunday and Monday (and perhaps even into Tuesday). Given our
position toward the eastern edge of the primary ridge and
within west northwesterly flow aloft, MCS activity will be
possible, especially on Saturday night/Sunday morning and again
on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. Clear
conditions overnight with calm to light southerly winds could
allow for fog development across northern Missouri and southern
Iowa tonight. Cloud cover is anticipated to build back in early
Friday morning. CIGs are expected to remain VFR, but very brief
drops to MVFR will be possible before returning to FEW/SKC
conditions later in the morning/early afternoon with light
south-southwesterly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Macko