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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 5:36 am CST Nov 27, 2025
 
Thanksgiving
Day
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Mostly Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 21. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Mostly Clear

Friday

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Mostly Cloudy

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before midnight, then rain.  Low around 32. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Rain/Snow
Likely then
Rain
Saturday

Saturday: Rain before noon, then rain and snow likely.  High near 40. Southeast wind 8 to 14 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Rain then
Rain/Snow
Likely
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of snow before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance Snow
then Mostly
Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25.
Partly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Mostly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.
Mostly Cloudy

Hi 41 °F Lo 21 °F Hi 39 °F Lo 32 °F Hi 40 °F Lo 17 °F Hi 25 °F Lo 12 °F Hi 25 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Thanksgiving Day
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 21. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday
 
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
 
Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 32. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday
 
Rain before noon, then rain and snow likely. High near 40. Southeast wind 8 to 14 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 25.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Monday
 
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.
Monday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.
Tuesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
Tuesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Wednesday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
203
FXUS63 KEAX 271137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry Thanksgiving today.

- Majority of Friday will be dry with a storm system arriving
  Friday night

- Chances for wintry precipitation have expanded. 4-7 inches of
  snow is possible across far NE MO (including the Kirksville
  area). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area.
  Other areas could see 0.5-3 inches of snow.

- Some uncertainties remain with the potential for a shifting
  storm track, and a fine line between light snow and more
  notable accumulating snow, and chances for rain undercutting
  potential snow totals.

- Road travel impacts are likely late Friday through Saturday
  especially along I-35, US-36, and US-65.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Overview

Dry and cool for Thanksgiving day. Temperatures remain below normal
in the low to mid 40s.

Moving on to the expected storm system this weekend. Firstly, much
of the daylight hours Friday remain dry and travel impact free
(locally speaking). The storm system is expected to move in during
the evening and overnight period. Impactful weather is expected to
continue through much of Saturday vacating the area by Saturday
overnight into Sunday. The area of notable accumulating snow has
expanded and looks to encompass areas from Rockport, MO SE through
Moberly and points northeast. Current snowfall forecasts for NW MO
range from 4-7 inches where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
Observable road travel impacts are likely along I-35, US-36, and US-
65 in this area. Accumulating snow is becoming more likely across
the area sans the Truman Lake region. Much of this is likely to be
more limited to grassy surfaces as ground temperatures will continue
to be decently warm enough to slow accumulations. General trends
have been moving this system southward thus shifting the axis of
heaviest snow with it.

Detailed Discussion (Confidence, Uncertainties, etc.)

Of course, being the first substantial storm of the year (for us) in
a seasonal transition environment - it`s going to be complicated...
The good news is that vertical profiles keep temperatures from the
surface to 800mb either above or below freezing with limited
oscillations between the 0C isotherm. This keeps precipitation types
fairly simple between rain, a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow,
as well as straight snow (read: little chance for freezing
rain/ice).

Satellite imagery shows our culprit system working its way on shore
on the Washington coast. As this wave moves on shore, ridging across
the central CONUS enables steady moisture transport (and some warm
air) across the front range of the Rockies. The upper wave is
expected to flatten out stretching over the Rockies encouraging the
development of a leeward midlevel wave Friday afternoon. Rapid
fronto and cyclogenesis quickly tap into the available moisture pool
and begin developing snow showers across the upper Plains.
Simultaneously, the southern pressure gradient tightens expediting
flow of moisture into the region. By late Friday, the low will have
dug deep enough south to entice the development of showers across
the area. Frontal boundaries are expected to set up with the warm
front somewhere across far northern MO and southern IA, and a cold
front across the western side of the system. The placement of these
frontal boundaries will be critical in anticipated rain/snow amounts.

Confidence is high that this system will likely pass through the
region. Most guidance passes the center of the low through the
southern side of the region. Confidence is also high that we will
see a transition of precipitation throughout the storm`s residency
in the area. As mentioned earlier, vertical profiles do look to stay
fairly stark between rain, wintry mix (rain, sleet, snow), and snow.
Confidence is also growing in accumulating snowfall and potentially
notable accumulations across northeast MO. Model guidance has been
steadily increasing snowfall potential particularly around the
Kirksville area where guidance averages around 5 inches ranging from
3-7 inches of snow anticipated. Areas where 5+ inches of snow are
possible are highlighted in the current Winter Storm Watch. This
does not mean that this area will be upgraded to a warning as
forecasts are updated. Winter weather products will have to be
curated to cover potential impacts from this system, especially
during the upcoming busty travel weekend.

On to the uncertainties, of course, one of the primary uncertainties
is the track of the system. Over the course of the past several
ensemble model guidance runs, the track of the system has been
shifting further south. This has resulted in several things
including increased chances for accumulating snow as well as
increased chances for cooler temperature. One other variable this has
introduced is an invasion of drier air to the norther which might
increase snow liquid ratios which when given the ample moisture
expected in the area, leads to high snowfall totals. This area of
dry air is likely to affect areas north of US-36.

The dynamic nature of the system as it progress across the area is
another factor that could significantly affect perception totals.
The warm front deviating north or south, the cold front arriving
later or earlier, will greatly affect snow potential. If the front
moves too far north, we will experience more warm air, rain, and
thus lower snow totals. If it does not move north enough, more
snowfall is likely, and there is a chance that far NW MO could see
even more snow than forecasted.

For the KC metro, most precipitation is expected to be rain. The
best chance for snow for the KC metro and points south is expected
on the backside of the cold front in which precipitation is expected
to transition to snow. Accumulations are expected to remain under
an inch with most accumulations expected on grassy surfaces. Ground
temperatures are expected to remain decently warm cutting into snow
totals. That said, a tenth of a half an inch of snow is not out of
the question. Of course, the deviations mentioned before in the
forecast discussion will play a critical role in the amount of rain
and/or snow the KC metro might experience.

Looking further, tomorrow`s system is expected to vacate the area by
Sunday morning. Another system moves through the region Monday, but
several uncertainties remain with this subsequent system. Just
between yesterday`s run and today`s the system has shifted
precipitation from south of I-70 to north of I-70. Much of this
fluctuation is likely due to how ensemble members are handling the
previous system and the synoptic resolution of its passing. As the
high resolution short term picture comes into range today, the
extended picture will gain some clarity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Some high BKN to OVC clouds are expected to pass
through the terminal midday. Winds remain light generally
northwest through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
     night for MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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