St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXUS63 KEAX 100956
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today, but still above normal, with breezy northerly
  winds through mid to late afternoon.

- Mild and above normal temperatures continue through the end of
  the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances return on Saturday, with the highest chances for
  rain (up to 70%) south of Interstate 70.

- Warmer temperatures are likely to return by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

H5 analysis shows mid/upper troughing extending from Ontario
southward into the upper Mississippi Valley, moving eastward.
This is driving a surface cold front through the region from
northwest to southeast this morning, with surface observations
showing the front through far NW Missouri, approaching St.
Joseph as of 3 AM. The front should be through the KC metro by
around 7 AM, and completely through the remainder of the CWA by
around 9 AM before losing much of its forward progress once it
reaches the vicinity of the Interstate 44 corridor by late
morning. Winds will turn north northwesterly behind the front,
with sustained winds on the order of 15 mph and gusts up to 25
to 30 mph through most of the afternoon hours. Cooler and drier
air comes behind the front, with afternoon highs in the 50s
(could still approach 60 degrees toward the Ozark Plateau
depending on the speed of the frontal passage). By late
afternoon, surface high pressure slides into SE Nebraska,
relaxing winds. Clear skies and nearly calm winds tonight into
tomorrow morning will allow for subfreezing overnight lows to
return. For tomorrow, our CWA will be located between relatively
low amplitude mid/upper troughing to our east and ridging to the
west, as the center of the surface high slides from far NW
Missouri toward St. Louis during the daytime hours. This will
result in light and variable winds, mostly clear skies, and high
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s (northern MO) to the mid
50s. Mild temperatures continue into Thursday and Friday, with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, with increased cloud cover
and slight chances for rain Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon.

By Friday evening, models project an upper trough moving
eastward off the Pacific Ocean into the Desert Southwest/far NW
Mexico, with this entering into the far Southern Plains by late
Saturday morning. Models still differ in how they handle the
evolution of this system, with the 00z operational GFS favoring
a more northerly track with widespread showers across the
southern half to two thirds of the CWA on Saturday while the 00z
operational ECMWF shows a more southerly track, and keeps our
CWA generally precipitation free. Looking at ensembles, the
ECMWF ensemble only shows a 10 to 30% chance for rainfall
exceeding 0.5" for areas along and south of the Interstate 70
corridor. The GFS ensemble shows a 50 to 70% probability for
rainfall to exceed 0.5" for these same locations, with a
relatively sharp gradient in the probability for GTE 0.5" of
rain north of the Interstate 70 corridor. The most recent NBM
run shows roughly a 50% chance for total rainfall less than
0.25" at MCI, but also shows a 35 to 40% probability for total
rainfall to exceed 1". Ergo, quite a bit of uncertainty exists
at this time for how this system will evolve.

Warmer temperatures appear likely on Sunday and into early next
week as the aforementioned upper low and accompanying trough is
progged to move into the deep South/Gulf Coast, with relatively
high amplitude mid/upper ridging building in across the central
CONUS behind it. The most recent NBM 25th and 75th percentiles
for MaxT at MCI are 61 and 70 degrees, respectively, for Monday,
and 68 and 76 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday (note that the
record high at MCI for next Tuesday is 74 degrees).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Winds shift dramatically overnight along with some gusty
conditions at times, but otherwise VFR TAFs to prevail across
all sites. Current southerly winds around 10kts will quickly
give way to winds shifting out of the north overnight. With the
frontal passage and existing pressure gradient, sustained winds
to largely remain around 10kts through the overnight, including
the potential for some lower 20s kt gusts pre-dawn. Strongest
wind gust potential will be immediately post frontal and in the
few hours (morning) after, with the potential for some mid-20s
kts gusts. Sustained winds too will be at their strongest pre-
dawn and through the morning hours, with sustained northerly
winds to around 15 kts. Sustained and gusts gradually ease
through the afternoon and more substantially by and after
00z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Curtis