St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS63 KEAX 270912
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today behind the cold front.

- Gusty northerly winds and low relative humidity will yield
  elevated to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.

- Widespread freeze likely overnight tonight into Saturday
  morning.

- Gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity will yield
  elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures in the 80s are likely to return for Monday and
  Tuesday afternoons.

-

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Current H5 analysis shows broad, low amplitude longwave
troughing across the northern half of the CONUS which
continues to slowly push southward. At the surface, the cold
front as of 2 AM has made its way into far southern Missouri,
with some post frontal rain showers lingering along and south of
the Interstate 70 corridor. These should clear the CWA to the
southeast by later this morning. Gusty northerly winds continue
behind the front thanks to the tight pressure gradient between a
1006 mb low currently centered near Wichita Falls and the 1041
mb high over the Montana/Saskatchewan border, and these should
persist through the afternoon hours. This will pair up with
relative humidity dropping into the teens and twenties across
portions of eastern Kansas, western and NW Missouri this
afternoon, and has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning
for these locations from noon to 8 pm. Temperatures will be
much cooler today behind the front with ample CAA, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s (which is pretty close to normal for March
27th). Gusty northerly winds should finally relax by later this
evening as the aforementioned surface high across MT/SK slides
southeastward into the Midwest, relaxing the pressure gradient.
With light winds and clear skies, strong radiational cooling
should allow temperatures to fall to or below freezing CWA wide
(28 to 32 degrees) late tonight into early Saturday morning,
which could cause some issues for sensitive plants that may have
begun their growing season a bit earlier than usual due to the
recent periods of well above normal warmth.

Temperatures should warm a few degrees on Saturday as we return
to a WAA regime with low level flow becoming southerly. Surface
winds should increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 to 35
mph by Saturday afternoon and with RH anticipated to plummet
into the teens to lower 20s once more, elevated to critical
fire weather conditions should be present once more. This has
prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for the vast
majority of the CWA from noon to 8 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The warming trend is expected to continue and intensify into
Sunday and Monday, with record highs seemingly quite likely for
Monday afternoon (MCI forecast is 85 - the record is 82). Breezy
SSW surface winds are likely for both Sunday and Monday
afternoons, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. However, moderate
moisture return should keep afternoon RH values above critical
fire weather thresholds.

As we head into late Monday night into Tuesday, a mid/upper
rough is progged to traverse from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest, which should send a cold front toward the region
from the northwest. Meanwhile, southwesterly mid level flow
seems likely to overspread our CWA, with a few subtle impulses
translating through this SW flow. Models still differ in the
exact evolution and timing, with the ECMWF bringing the front
into the CWA from northwest to southeast by sometime Tuesday
afternoon, and the GFS waiting until late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning to bring the front into northern portions of
the CWA. The ECMWF is also much more progressive with the front,
suggesting it completely moves through the CWA, while the GFS
wants to stall the front across the CWA. There may be a chance
for a few relatively organized storms on Monday night and again
on Tuesday afternoon/evening, depending on how these features
play out. Very warm (80s) temperatures seem highly probable on
Tuesday afternoon out ahead of the cold front. Temperatures
should drop for Wednesday and Thursday with ample cloud cover
and chances for showers and thunderstorms (50 to 70 percent) as
well as the cold front either stalled over the CWA or pushed
south of the CWA. The uncertainty in the exact placement of the
cold front is shown in the NBM MaxT probabilities at MCI for
Wednesday and Thursday, with the 25th and 75th percentiles 56
and 68 degrees, respectively for Wednesday, and 52 and 69
degrees, respectively, for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Ongoing scattered and elevated showers and storms highlight the
main concern within this TAF period. Scattered convection will
continue to slowly expand and sag southward in the beginning
couple/few hours of the TAF period, primarily affecting
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD sites. With the general scattered and progressive
nature, have opted for TEMP groups to highlight the periodic
nature of the threat, with the primary restriction potential
being reduced visibilities during heavier rainfall. Once this
activity moves out of the TAF sites around/after 09z/10z, VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the remainder of the
period. Winds out of the norther remain on the gusty side
overnight, potentially into the low 30s kts, and gradually ease
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001>006-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-
     043.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...Curtis