St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS63 KEAX 041914
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
214 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry conditions continue with seasonable temperatures
  through Monday.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday and will stick
  around through the end of the week.

- Very small chance (<20%) for rain in northern MO Thursday into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to
progress eastward as the weak cold front clears the forecast area.
Light northerly flow behind the front reinforces the dry air mass,
maintaining clear skies. High pressure will build in Monday morning,
bringing weak easterly winds. This setup will keep highs in the mid
70s today and Monday but radiational cooling under clear skies will
allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s.

By Tuesday, the shortwave trough lifts into the Northeast while an
upper-level ridge establishes itself over the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure moves east as low pressure develops over the
Great Plains, initiating southerly flow and WAA into the
forecast area. This pattern will persist through the end of the
week, bringing back above average temperatures with highs
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. There is a small chance
(<20%) that northern MO could see some rain Thursday as
southerly flow could advect moisture into the area, but
deterministic and ensemble guidance has been going back and
forth on rain chances so confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period and light winds shifting
from northerly to more easterly overnight with approaching high
pressure.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...IPC