St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

797
FXUS63 KEAX 210409
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1009 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and dry conditions persist into next week.

- Well-above normal temperatures (15-30 degrees F) are possible next
week. Increasing confidence in record-breaking temperatures around
Christmas Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A quiet, seasonably warm day is ongoing as we have reached normal
high temperatures since 9 AM this morning. Highs today will range in
the low 40s (for areas near the MO/IA border) to the low 50s (for
areas near central MO). Zonal flow aloft remains over the area with
a closed low making its way through Ontario. A few mid to upper
level shortwaves on the southern periphery, collocated with a ribbon
of moisture, has resulted in partly cloudy skies which is
anticipated to linger through the day. At the surface, a dry, weak
cold front, extending from a low over Ontario, has pushed through
the area reorienting our winds out of the north. A progressive
surface high will descend through MN towards IL, ushering a brief
shot of cold temperatures for Sunday morning. Early morning lows are
expected to range in the 20s across the area, making for a chilly
start to Sunday. As the high quickly slides to the northeast/east by
the late morning/early afternoon, southerly windflow will return
across the area. This, coupled with mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures to rebound nicely with highs tomorrow ranging in the
low 40s to low 50s.

As we get into Monday, a stout, broad upper ridge will continue its
track to the east over the Great Plains Region. This is when we can
expect our warming trend to begin with highs for Monday ranging from
the low 50s to low 60s. This upper ridge will continue its eastward
track allowing temperatures to warm into mid-next week. The warmest
days for next week are anticipated to be Wednesday and Thursday
(Christmas and the day before) as a dynamic closed low off the
Pacific Coast pushes generous amounts of warm air into the upper
ridge causing it to amplify. Real-time GFS Maps standardized
anomalies suggest H500 geopotential heights reach 2-3 standard
deviations above normal relative to mid-December. Ensemble guidance
has trended a few degrees warmer bringing the highs around the mid
60s farther north, north of I-70. For Thursday, the LREF gives
roughly a 50% chance for areas south of a line from St. Joseph to
Kirksville to reach highs greater than 65 degrees F. That being
said, highs across the area Wednesday and Thursday are anticipated
to range from the 60s to low 70s. We will be closely monitoring
records as highs are forecast to be 20-30 degrees above seasonal
averages. For Friday, a dry cold front will move through the area
lowering temperatures heading into the weekend (upper 40s to low
60s). Due to the influence of the ridge, precip chances remain non-
existent for all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light
winds will shift out of the southeast by mid morning on Sunday
at 7-10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...WFO EAX