St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXUS63 KEAX 242324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026


...00Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend and
  into Monday. This includes multiple chances for strong to severe
  storms.

  - Saturday evening: S and W of the KC Metro

  - Sunday night/overnight: trending further north toward NW/N Missouri,
    but areas further south remain possible

  - Monday: Possible over much of the area, especially east

* While no current or ongoing river or areal flood issues over
  the area, issues will be possible for any areas that receive
  multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall over the next
  few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A very pleasant day today has prevailed in the wake of the Thursday
evening thunderstorm event, as surface high pressure continues to
ooze in and across the Northern and Central Plains. Northerly winds
have and will continue to prevail through the remainder of the day
with highs topping out generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Looking more broadly at the pattern across North America, a pair of
sizable cutoff mid-upper lows continue to churn over the southern
Canadian Plains and just off the Nova Scotia coast respectively. As
these cutoff lows churn away, the pattern remains fairly stagnant
overall through the weekend with degrees of mid-upper level ridging
around the Great Lakes and more zonal like flow across the middle
and southern portions of CONUS. That setup puts the more immediate
area at the mercy of various shortwaves moving through the southern
stream and/or rounding the base of the Southern Canadian Plains
cutoff low. Put another way, the active pattern continues, but with
at least moderate uncertainty in details for shower/storm chances
over the next few days.

A southern stream shortwave can be discerned on various GOES WV
imagery coming onto and working through California. That, and a
shortwave and moisture plume rounding the base of the cutoff low
will provide the area with our next storm chances, Saturday evening
into overnight. Developing surface low over West Texas will drift
eastward, but guidance across the board keeps any appreciable low
level moist return shunted well south. As shortwaves move into
Plains Saturday, afternoon/evening convection over KS/OK likely
grows upscale into a primary wind threat. However, given some of the
aforementioned, expectation conceptually (and reflected in available
guidance) is for strongest convection to dive SE along the expected
CAPE gradient. Some more elevated CAPE may be present closer to the
area that could yield some showers and/or non-severe thunder.

Into Sunday, much of the day is expected to be on the quieter side,
but also starting to set the table for Sunday night into Monday
potential. A larger shortwave trough is expected to move through the
southern stream on into the Intermountain West Sunday, inducing
rigorous Lee Cyclogenesis in/around the CO/OK/TX/NM border areas.
With a broad surface high over the Great Lakes, low level flow and
general moisture return will be increasing and robust through the
day/evening. By the afternoon/early evening, existing expectation is
for robust convection over portions of central/northern Kansas
within an environment supportive or supercellular activity and
upscale growth. Given initiation region, much uncertainty on the
severe threat for the western forecast area as it will rely on
initial storm locations and how upscale growth evolves and possibly
organizes into bowing MCS structures. Suffice it to say that deep
layer shear vectors would push this activity toward the area, but
also into an area that becomes less supportive thermodynamically as
you toward and into Missouri. Then further into the overnight,
surface warm front continues to lift northward through the area, and
may result in additional elevated convection for portions of N
Missouri and NE Kansas. The Day 3 SPC Outlook noses an enhanced risk
into western portions of the area as a result.

Monday continues to look like it will carry the potential for a
higher end severe weather day. At least when you begin to check the
conceptual model boxes. It is of note too though that there is
probably at least moderate uncertainty in more precise track and
timing of the shortwave trough and surface low. The recent tendency
has been to be a bit slower and further W/NW. If this trend
continues, it would place the immediate forecast more squarely at
risk. Regarding the environment, it all looks quite impressive.
Thermodynamically, steep mid level lapse rates overtop rapidly
moistening low levels, including depicted Td approaching and into
the low 70s, and little to no cap by and after 18z. This has yielded
SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg within deterministic
GFS as well as higher res guidance like the RRFS. Wind profiles are
prolific with strong deep layer shear values in excess of 50-60kts
thanks to an associated jet streak. Model hodographs within the open
warm sector tend to be straight-line in nature and elongated. Lift
too should be of little question given the approaching shortwave
trough and general jet streak position. Again, conceptually this
checks the boxes for robust and organized convection that would
carry the risk for all hazards. But again, uncertainty remains in
final track and timing with any general shifts tending to carry
sizable changes to risk within the forecast area. Will refrain from
much storm mode discussion but suffice it to say additional
uncertainties exist in how rapid upscale growth may be. Day 4 SPC
Outlook paints both 15 and 30 percent areas over portions of the
CWA, with a focus primarily east of here generally remaining in line
with 06z/12z synoptic guidance suites. Would not be shocked further
elevated outlooks as we continue to approach this time frame and
confidence in details increases.

Sizable northern stream trough tends to continue to churn over
central Canada and gradually drift eastward, keeping much of the mid-
upper level flow pattern more zonal to NW in nature. Various
shortwaves remain depicted within synoptic guidance, providing low
confidence potential additional shower/non-severe storm chances
at times through the end of next week.

Temperatures throughout the forecast largely on the seasonal to
seasonally warm. Highs in the 70s to low 80s predominantly through
the weekend, then cooler into next week with forecast highs often in
the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast as high
pressure tracks to the north of the region. This will lead to
light winds overnight, becoming southeasterly around 10kts by
mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...CDB