St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS63 KEAX 081135
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Beneficial rainfall across the area moves in today
  - Rain amounts of 1" or greater: 40%-80% chance across area

* Thunderstorms possible this afternoon/early evening, including
  low-end potential for a few strong to severe storms.
  - Strong/damaging winds the main concern
    - Storms themselves likely moving >50mph to NE

* Additional (light) precipitation chances Friday night into
  Saturday, including snow and wintry mixes possible
  - 25-50% chances for any
  - Best chances near/north of line from KC Metro to Kirksville

* Temperatures cooling toward seasonal normal norms through the
  weekend, some rebounding to start next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The relative quiet and calm before the storm so to speak. Overnight
conditions were quiet across the area, with hints of change
beginning to move into the area. Changes namely being increasing mid-
upper level cloud cover and gradually increasing near-surface
moisture let alone the greater profile. With the cloud cover,
gradually increasing southerly flow, and moisture, morning lows will
be notably warmer and more humid. As has been mentioned prior,
record warm lows are in clear jeopardy with current temperatures
throughout the KC Metro still in the low to mid 50s (2-3am) and
forecast values in the mid to upper 40s. Expect that record to be
set.

The well advertised shortwave is clearly depicted on GOES WV
imagery, coming off the New Mexico Plateau and into the southern
High Plains early this morning. The surface low reflection has been
deepening over SE Colorado and will begin to move off the Front
Range early this morning as well. In doing so, moisture transport
through the column will continue to increase, including the
potential to see some dew points flirt with or eclipse 60 deg F and
pushing PWats into the 1.25"-1.50" range. With the arrival of deeper
moisture and increasing large scale lift, widespread rain/showers
will begin to push into the area in/around sunrise. While a rumble
of thunder may be possible with this initial push, it should largely
be efficient (for Jan!) rain/showers. HREF and NBM probs for >1" of
rainfall have tightened up a bit, but remain fairly high (>60-80%)
through a SW to NE corridor that ranges from east-central Kansas
through NE Missouri, including the KC Metro. No change in flooding
risk for the reasons that have been mentioned through previous
handful of discussion... unfrozen ground, dry of late/drought,
progressive nature. This should ultimately be beneficial/needed
rainfall.

As the surface low approaches/tracks into/across NE Kansas and NW
Missouri late morning into the afternoon, a dry slot too will push
across the CWA and cutoff precipitation through the KC Metro and to
the NE. This is interesting not because it brings and end to
rainfall or maybe some question as to how much rain some will
ultimately get, but because this actually brings into the picture
the potential for some low-topped supercells. As we have moved into
the hi-res model windows, there has been a fairly persistent
depiction of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in conjunction with >60kt deep
(unidirectional) shear. This too is with progged overcast
skies, let alone if we are able to realize `any` clearing in the
open dry slot/warm sector. By this time, a >120kt jet too will
be rounding the larger longwave trough, potentially providing
support needed to convect in the open warm sector, this in
addition to potential convection along the impending cold front.
Storm motions will be screaming to the NE at >50-55 mph with
any of this activity. Given that is nearly severe thunderstorm
wind, `any` enhancement would result in eclipsing that
threshold. Cannot explicitly rule out hail or an odd tornado
with any organized storms, but again straight line winds would
be the primary concern. SPC has noted some of this potential
with the current Day 1 Outlook, but recent hi-res guidance runs
hint that the Marginal Risk may be too far south/could be pulled
northward a bit. Keep an eye on weather conditions through the
day as this potential threat continues to evolve.

Showers/storms move out of the area this evening, giving about a 24
hour reprieve before the next shot at any precipitation moves
through Friday evening/overnight. Model trend continues to weaken
this second shortwave, now primarily depicting a truly/fully open
wave within deterministic and many ensemble members. As a result,
the potential banding that has been discussed the past couple/few
days comes into real question. This is clearly reflected in modeled
snowfall, with a majority of guidance depicting <1" of snowfall. The
area of accumulating snowfall has also drifted back to the SE a bit
(over KC Metro through Kirksville), which makes some sense given now
open wave through all levels. Given the scaled back snowfall
amounts/potential, operational products like WSSI/WSSI-P too show
this. When using Minor Impacts thresholds, probs barely move the
WSSI-P needle. General winter travel impacts (anytime there is any
snow) should be reduced too given the night/overnight time frame.
This activity moves out Saturday morning, giving way to return of
more seasonal temperatures in the mid 30s-mid 40s for highs. A few
flakes/flurries may yet be seen later in the day Saturday as a
cutoff mid-upper wave drops into the Northern Plains, but will
struggle to find much moisture to squeeze out.

Sunday should be the coldest day of the forecast, with current
forecast highs effectively right at seasonal norms in the low 30s to
upper 30s across the area. Temperatures quickly rebound into the
40s/50s early next week as southerly flow returns, but too looks to
be short lived...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Quite a messy TAF period on deck... scattered weak convective
activity is beginning to move in/toward the metro sites from the
SW. While there have been isolated lightning, opted to start
VCSH to try and better discern the more robust VCTS/TS potential
later today. Conditions quickly degrade toward IFR this morning,
but with "waves" of showers have tried to signal that with
prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR into the early afternoon. Dry
slot moves in this afternoon and should lift ceilings some to
borderline VFR. In conjunction, there looks to be additional
scattered thunderstorm activity either out ahead of and/or along
approaching cold front. Did opt for VCTS as there is enough
confidence in activity near the sites. Precipitation winds down
by around 00z, but MVFR/IFR ceilings to move back in behind cold
frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis