St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS63 KEAX 090304
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Chance for rain continues to increase through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Summer-like temperatures will persist into early next week as a
stubborn upper-level ridge sits across the eastern CONUS. For most,
highs today will climb into the low-mid 80s in the wake of a
northward moving surface boundary. The exception is across the NE
CWA, where temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the upper
70s with a more southeasterly flow. As has been widely advertised,
this is 10-20 degrees above average for this time of the year, near
the 90th percentile (normal high for today is 71F in Kansas City,
69F in Kirksville, and 71F in Sedalia.)

Overnight, a weak surface low will move NE across central Nebraska.
Ascent associated with the low along with the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet across Iowa will be enough to
initiate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across portions of
Iowa, but it`s unlikely (<10%) that this activity will propagate
into northern Missouri. Forecast soundings continue to show a
deep dry layer below 600mb, so the required moisture isn`t in
place to support precipitation.

Temperatures over the weekend will range from the low 80s across
northern Missouri to the low 90s in central Missouri as the upper-
level ridge maintains its position over the area. This ridge and a
developing western trough will keep the remnants of Hurricane Isaias
generally east of the Mississippi River heading into next week, with
no sensible effects forecast across our area.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as
the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast. Moisture from
another landfalling tropical storm (Simon) on the west coast of
Mexico will work its way north into the south-central Plains,
bringing increased PoPs with it. The speed at which the trough moves
into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast. A
slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the
deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday
night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
through midweek. A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF
GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances
in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid
70s. The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree
interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period.
Winds will be generally out of the SE through the night before
becoming more SSW after sunrise. Diurnally driven gusts are expected
starting mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon.
Gusts dissipate after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis/Shaw
AVIATION...Pesel