St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS63 KEAX 030450
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue
  through the weekend, and likely into early next week.

    - Heat advisory in effect area wide through at least
      Saturday evening.

    - Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with
      max heat indices in the upper 90s to 105 degrees today
      through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the 595 dam high centered over the
mid south into southern Appalachia, yielding yet another hot
afternoon across our CWA with 3 pm temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s. Increased southerly flow has ushered in modestly
higher dew points, pushing heat indices into the upper 90s to
the lower 100s. The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly the
same through the end of the week - the H5 high slides just a
little bit further to the east, with mid/upper ridging remaining
across much of the CONUS between an upper trough across the
Pacific Northwest and another over Ontario and Quebec. By this
weekend, the center of the H5 high is expected to return
westward, initially over our CWA and then over the Southern
Plains by late Sunday into early next week. Regardless, the heat
dome remains firmly in place over the region, with afternoon
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s (heat indices ranging
from upper 90s to lower 100s) and overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s through at least Saturday and likely into Sunday. The
heat advisory has been extended through 8 PM Saturday.

Slightly cooler temperatures are favored for early and into
middle of next week, although highs in the mid 90s with max heat
indices in the upper 90s are still likely (NBM 25th and 75th
percentile for MaxT at MCI is 92 and 97 degrees, respectively,
for Monday and Tuesday). Dry conditions are expected through the
end of the week, with only brief periods of slight chance PoPs
(15 to 20%) this weekend into early next week across NE Missouri
toward the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge.

Models suggest the possibility of an upper trough coming across
southern Canada into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes
region by Wednesday and into Thursday, potentially sending a
cold front through our CWA sometime late Wednesday
evening/night. If this comes to fruition, it would bring a
better chance for showers and storms as well as cooler
temperatures behind the front on Thursday, although NBM guidance
shows a fairly sizable interquartile range for MaxT on Thursday
(83 degrees and 93 degrees, respectively, at MCI).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southwest winds are expected
to become marginally gusty after 15Z Thursday, and a few cumulus
around 4K feet agl may develop south of I-70 after 18Z Thursday
afternoon. Gusty winds and fair weather cumulus are expected to
subside near sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams

AVIATION...BT