St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS63 KEAX 062110
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusts up to 30-35 mph through the remainder of the afternoon

- Slight cooldown tomorrow, before warming well above normal
  early next week

- Chances of precipitation (30-40%) begin Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

With the earlier passage of the cold front, temperatures have
topped off around the low to mid 50s with blustery winds out of
the north/northwest, gusting up to 30-35 mph. As evening
approaches, winds will die down and remaining cumulus will clear
with the approach of a pronounced low level ridge overnight.
Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly cooler, with some
stronger southerly winds still possible as the result of a
tightened pressure gradient between an area of high pressure
over the lower Great Lakes and low pressure over the Dakotas.
However, a threat of strong wind gusts will be minimized due to
less pronounced diurnal mixing, with a deck of cirrus gradually
building overhead through the day.

Starting Sunday, temperatures will begin to warm with the
further establishment of an upper level ridge from the west and
greater warm air advection aloft. Monday will see the potential
for record breaking highs at some sites across the CWA, with
forecast highs skirting the low 70s towards southwestern
Missouri. Current 25th-75th percentile values for max
temperatures in Kansas City range from 66-70 degrees Fahrenheit,
and the current record for Kansas City was set in 1943 at 72
degrees Fahrenheit, so will have to keep an eye out for any
notable highs that day!

After Monday, our period of dry weather ends with a pattern of
precipitation beginning Tuesday morning. Deterministic models
have begun to converge on a line of light rainfall with a
passing shortwave disturbance to the south/southeast of our CWA,
with ensemble guidance like the LREF hovering around a 15-30%
chance for precipitation becoming closer to 40% towards central
Missouri. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and
timing of the greatest precipitation with this passing
disturbance, as different ensemble members within the LREF have
varying start/end times for measurable precipitation or do not
simulate precipitation at all. However, as it stands in the
forecast, a 30-40% chance of precipitation exists beginning
Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. As the forecast
grows closer, more precise details and better model agreement
will make the forecast clearer. By Wednesday,
temperatures will fall back to the mid 40s and low 50s for the
remainder for the week. Approaching the end of the
forecast period, another chance (20-30%) of precipitation
exists.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast
period. Cumulus expected to develop going into the afternoon,
with wind gusts around 25-30 kts persisting until the evening
hours. Some MVFR cloud ceilings present in northeastern MO, but
not anticipated to impact terminals this afternoon. Winds
calming overnight, beginning to turn southerly into tomorrow.
Anticipating the introduction of high cirrus clouds around the
end of the period at all terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG