St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS63 KEAX 021135
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible late Monday afternoon into the
  overnight.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid week through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

This is a very complex forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours as
a deepening trough moves out of the Intermountain West into the
Plains. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows this
system centered roughly over Utah and somewhat disorganized
still. A subtropical jet is surging across the Southwest into
eastern New Mexico and the northwest Texas Panhandle, with
convection already noted in that region. The polar jet is
rounding the base of the trough currently and remains discrete
from the subtropical jet initially. Broad and deep ascent will
increase later this morning and this afternoon, associated with
the subtropical jet moving into the area. This forcing may get
an initial round of showers and storms to develop in the
noon-3pm time frame. CAPE is going to be limited for this entire
event and that will be the running theme throughout the next
24-36 hours. But if sufficient surface based CAPE can develop
during the day, and it isn`t constantly eroded from the strong
forcing overspreading the area, these initial cells could become
severe. This seems unlikely though. What seems more likely is
storm development along the front through central-eastern Kansas
during the afternoon, where instability is maximized just ahead
of the boundary. These storms will likely quickly become linear
or semi-discrete clusters as the whole area moves east from the
late afternoon into the evening hours. As this is occurring,
the low- level jet strengthens, enhancing the curvature of the
low-level hodograph and lengthening it overall across eastern
Kansas and into far western Missouri, increasing the potential
for embedded tornados within the line. Ensemble mean MUCAPE
peaks around 500 J/kg in far eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Again, very limited but may be sufficient given the
shear. With this line of storms moving into our western zones
as early as 02-04Z and continuing east through 06-08Z, we may be
dealing with a damaging wind and QLCS tornado risk well into
the overnight hours before the system loses steam in the pre-
dawn hours.

Tuesday continues to look unsettled and may pose a sneaky severe
risk with some instability ahead of the slow moving front late
in the morning to early afternoon. The NAM still shows a local
max of instability through the forecast area just ahead of what
may be a triple point in west-central Missouri. Shear is
extremely strong though and so strong it could rip apart
updrafts that do try to develop. So it`s something to keep an
eye on but seems lower probability at this point with the
greater risk for any additional severe weather well southeast of
the forecast area.

The forecast for the later half of the week and through the weekend
will feature cooler, closer to normal temperatures. Early next week,
in the Sunday to Monday time frame, deterministic models show a
strong shortwave moving through the middle of the country. The GFS,
in particular, moves very cold air aloft over the region with this
shortwave. With 925mb temperatures near 0C, this could support some
wintry precipitation. Only about 15-20% of ensemble clusters show
anything close to a robust closed system early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across eastern KS and
western MO through the day as a strong storm system begins to
affect the region. Showers and storms will also become
widespread later this morning and this afternoon. It looks there
will be two periods of time with the highest thunderstorm
chances. One from early to late afternoon (18Z-21Z). And
another this evening (02Z-06Z). Have added TEMPO groups around
those more likely time periods. Winds will be strong and gusty
from the south. Sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts near 25kts
are expected through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB