St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS63 KEAX 151654
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly Warmer Afternoon Highs, Still Cold Early Morning Lows

- Warmer By The Middle of the Week

- Low Rain Chances Middle of This Week, Greater Precipitation
  Chances Next Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A negatively tilted trough axis continues to dig across the southern
Plains toward the Gulf region, driving a stronger surface cyclone
toward the Mississippi Delta. For the Central Plains and lower
Missouri River Valley, this has forced a mid-level ridge axis across
the area, with strong dAVA developing a broad surface anticyclone
centered along the Middle and Upper portions of the Mississippi
River Valley. This will continue to push eastward this afternoon,
and force lower tropospheric flow southeasterly by the afternoon.
This flow will help boost temperatures this afternoon back into the
lower and mid 50s across much of the area. Lingering moisture from
the southern Plains system is currently (as of 07z analysis) over
western Kansas, and as this trough axis shifts eastward should
expect to see some high-level cloud cover move in through the
afternoon and evening. This cloud cover though should clear with
another push of dAVA and subsidence, eventually clearing skies and
pushing the moisture southeastward. As a result, clear skies and
light winds will provide another setup for efficient radiational
cooling heading into Monday morning, sending low temperatures into
the lower 30s for most of the forecast area,  with some upper 20s
possible near the Iowa state line.

Monday morning and afternoon, dAVA regime remains in place tracking
a broad surface anticyclone across the Central Great Lakes region
and Ohio River Valley. This will turn low-level flow across eastern
Kansas to Central Missouri southerly, with stronger WAA between
925mb-850mb. There should be enough mixing Monday afternoon to help
get temperatures back toward the upper 50s for most of the area, and
perhaps some lower 60s for areas south of U.S. Hwy. 50. If skies
remain clear Monday night, we may see a strong diurnal cycle once
again where lows drop into the lower 30s Tuesday morning, especially
for areas east of Interstate 35, though uncertainty is a bit higher
amongst ensemble members, with probabilities of dropping below 35F
are only around 20 percent. Tuesday and Wednesday, continued
southerly flow and push of the thermal ridge axis into the eastern
Plains will continue to send temperatures upward, reaching the lower
to mid 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Through the middle of the work
week, overnight and early morning lows should mostly be above 40F,
and perhaps some spots may only drop into the lower 50s. The
forecast remains mostly dry through the middle of the week.

The ridge axis is progged to be completely east of the area by
Wednesday afternoon or evening. Deterministic guidance depicts a
short-wave trough lifting northeastward into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest, dragging a surface cyclone along that path. The bulk
of the forcing looks to remain well north of the area on Thursday,
though subtle surface pressure falls may be able to reach the lower
Missouri River Valley. With the exiting surface anticyclone though,
flow becomes more southwesterly, bringing in drier air ahead of the
axis of convergence from the northern Plains cyclone. Ensembles are
depicting about 15-20 percent probabilities for some type of rainfall
on Thursday afternoon or evening, but will be battling a lot of dry
air. Continued WAA and favorable regimes for mixing may help
temperatures Thursday and Friday reach the lower 70s south of U.S.
Hwy. 50, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the area.

Next weekend, a stronger H5 trough and notable vort maxima is
depicted in our extended guidance, that brings stronger mid-level
forcing and a surface cyclone closer to the area, with an attendant
cold front pushing across the Plains. This will introduce higher
rainfall chances, between 50-60 percent across most of the forecast
area. With the notable warmup, all precipitation will be rain. While
the forcing could end up quite strong on Saturday, the placement of
theta-e advection may be removed from our area during peak diurnal
heating. As a result, current extended guidance depicts minimal CAPE
and instability developing in our area, which could largely limit
the threat for thunderstorms. Trends will need to continued to be
monitored, because changes in the propagation speed of the wave could
result in a different placement of a CAPE axis that could make
Saturday more active. Once this system passes, seasonable
temperatures are forecast by the end of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will last through the forecast period. Currently have
a few upper-level cirrus across western MO, though visible
satellite shows that this layer is beginning to dissipate.
Winds are generally light and southeasterly, but tomorrow late-
morning will turn south-southwesterly and increase to 7-10kt
ahead of a tightening surface pressure gradient.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Shaw/Williams