St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS63 KEAX 262315
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures forecast through the next week.

- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow
  morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern
  Missouri.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly
  for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows the upper
ridge axis shifting east and weakening as it does, and a
shortwave trough lifting northeastward out of Mexico and
southwestern Texas. As that shortwave moves into Oklahoma and
Kansas tonight into tomorrow, forcing associated with it will
lead to isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few
thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. Instability is very weak to nonexistent
across the area so the chances for any storms is quite low. So
the general expectation is for be just showers. This system will
also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in
temperatures Tuesday.

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent
southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s
to potentially near 80 degrees. With normal highs in the lower 60s
for the Kansas City area, we should be 15 to as much as 20 degrees
above normal. There is some uncertainty regarding this, however. A
frontal boundary may slide south through the area leading to
increased precipitation chances and cooler (though still above
normal) temperatures. For now, the most probable scenario is for
precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of
the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again
into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A similar scenario plays out
Friday, with the most likely areas to see precipitation across
northern Missouri/ northeastern Kansas, and south of that climb into
the upper 70s. If precipitation occurs further south, that would
limit just how warm much of the forecast area gets. That`s a
possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what`s
already been mentioned. For Saturday, the best chances for
precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the
shortwave moves over the area earlier. This results in decreasing
PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. While temperatures trend cooler for the weekend, we may
still be 10 degrees above normal Saturday - Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

High-level clouds are advancing eastward but bases will remain
VFR through the TAF period. Northwest Missouri and northeast
Kansas may see light shower activity early Tuesday morning, but
the immediate KC Metro terminals expected to stay dry.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull