St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS63 KEAX 092318
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...00Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Thunderstorms and potential for severe storms returns to the area
  Tuesday PM into the evening and overnight.
  - SPC Slight and Enhanced Risks and WPC Excessive Rainfall
    (Flooding) Risk for portions of the area

* Cooler and broadly quiet Wednesday into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Overall quiet conditions prevailed across the area today with clear
skies on persistent southwesterly flow from the surface into the mid-
levels. This has resulted in another day of warming temperatures,
including flirting with (but looking to be just shy) of record
warmth, with highs on track to top out in the 70s across the area.
Western portions of the CWA (eastern KS and western MO) have seen
low end elevated fire weather conditions develop, which will
continue until nocturnal cooling and easing of winds settle in.
There have been a few noted fires on the TOP radar this afternoon,
where fire weather conditions are more favorable. Additionally,
increasing near-surface moisture is noted on visible satellite
(diurnal CU lifting into/through southern Missouri) and in-situ
observations.

The most eventful/impactful portion of the forecast remains Tuesday
PM through the overnight hours. The synoptic setup remains well
corroborated among deterministic solutions and their fellow
ensembles. Existing zonal flow across much of CONUS will shift more
southwesterly through central CONUS in response to a northern stream
deepening shortwave trough and a cutoff low drifting NE out of NW
Mexico which will gradually fill and merge with the northern stream
wave. This progression will increase southwesterly flow through the
Plains, yielding continued and deeper moisture advection into the
area. As has been noted by the previous couple/few discussions,
expected PWats toward and above 1.50 inches push into/above the 99th
percentile of Euro and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables, but more
on that in just a second. Concurrently, surface low development
moves out into the Plains and drifts NE across NE Kansas and NW
Missouri, lifting a warm front through the state, likely settling
into Southeast Iowa and Northern Illinois. The path and orientation
of the surface low pushes the best moisture and thermodynamic
environment around and to the South and East of the KC Metro area.
With supportive mid-level lapse rates, guidance has seen an uptick
in SB/MU CAPE values toward and above 2500 J/kg within the open warm
sector. Convective potential within the open warm sector remains in
question with a sizable CAP in place and some uncertainty in cloud
cover expanse. Should any storms achieve initiation in the warm
sector, they would carry the potential for all modes of severe
weather. Large hail (up to an greater than 2 inches) and damaging
winds would be the main risks, especially initially. Storms that
achieve organization and motion more along the right mover estimate,
could see increased tornadic potential as soundings suggest that
would yield mostly streamwise vorticity ingest in the low levels.
But... this risk is conditional given the uncertainty in convective
initiation potential within this open warm sector. Most prevalent
window here would be after 3-4pm and toward/a bit after sunset.

More certain, convection wise, is activity nearer the cold front in
the evening hours, which too will be concurrent with
approaching/overspread deeper lift with the mid-upper level waves
and jet streak. Thermodynamic profiles suggest wind and hail
chances, but are certainly less robust than the open warm sector
profiles mentioned above. With the more expansive and deeper lift,
upscale growth is expected, turning primary concern toward damaging
winds. Surface front SW to NE orientation aligns largely with low
level shear vectors and the mean flow, limiting QLCS tor potential
and  giving concern to training storms and a flooding threat with an
initially lethargic frontal position. Synoptic and available higher
res models have signaled a fairly narrow area near the front with
>2 inch QPF. Given the tendency to under do higher end
precipitation, a swatch of 2 to 4 inch rainfall or greater is
certainly possible. Eventually, building large area of high pressure
over the western Northern Plains will begin to push the cold front
across the area and become more progressive in general. All in all,
continue to see no reason to disagree with the current SPC Day 2
Convective and the WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks.

Aforementioned surface high clears conditions out through the day
Wednesday and allows more seasonable temperatures to filter down
into the area. Expect highs in the 50s Wednesday and then some
moderation back into the 50s/60s through the end of the work week.
Overall conditions remain quiet through this time as well with any
notable disturbances to the flow displaced northward. The next
opportunity for any appreciable precipitation may move through the
region late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are likely (>75%) through the forecast. There is
a small chance for some MVFR to IFR ceilings to build north into
tomorrow morning as moisture surges northward. For now, have
just added a TEMPO group of scattered low clouds to account for
this. The thicker cloud cover looks more likely to the east and
southeast. Winds increase late in the morning from the
southwest, with gusts of 25-30kts possible. The chance for
convection look low enough through 00Z that I have kept it out
of the forecast for now. But thunderstorm chances increase
significantly in east-central KS and west-central MO after 00Z
Wed.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...CDB