St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS63 KEAX 090427
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon before rain moves in
  tonight (mainly northeastern MO), kicking off an active
  weather pattern through the weekend and into early next week.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow night.
  Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

* Storms possible again Sunday into the beginning of next week.
  Some storms could be severe, mainly Monday, but uncertainty
  remains high.

* Several consecutive days of rain could lead to river/areal
  flood concerns.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows a mid-level trough tracking
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains with an
associated surface low pressure system moving into the northern
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is draped across southeastern
NE and western IA. A few showers and storms have developed in
southeastern NE and southern IA along this front. A couple of
showers may drift into northeastern MO and northwestern KS through
the afternoon and evening as the front nudges into the area,
but no strong storms are expected. A WAA regime south of the
cold front has brought temperatures into the low-to-mid 70s
across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 30-40
mph through the afternoon before dropping off this evening.

The front is expected to stall across northern MO tonight
providing a focal point for showers and storms to form over the
next couple of days. Largely zonal flow is expected aloft on
Thursday with a couple of shortwave ripples moving through the
flow. These shortwaves may allow showers and storms to form by
mid-day across northern MO, however, the better forcing for
widespread convection looks to arrive Thursday evening as the
nose of 40-50 kt LLJ moves into the area. Instability will be
fairly scarce with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE expected during the
day, decreasing after sunset, thus widespread severe weather is
not expected, however, the strongest storms will still be
capable of producing large hail and strong to severe winds,
hence the SPC marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk across northern MO
and slight (Level 2 of 5) risk across northeastern KS.

Showers and storms will continue into Friday as several
shortwaves continue to propagate through the zonal flow pattern
with the stalled front remain the focus for development. The
front should drift southward through the area on Friday,
spreading precipitation across the whole area. This will also
keep high temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s across most of the
area on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The active pattern will continue into the weekend as an upper-
level trough is expected to move inland to California on
Saturday. A shortwave will propagate through the flow ahead of
the main trough on Saturday, resulting in the stalled front
lifting northward across the area. This will lead to WAA induced
showers and storms through the afternoon Saturday and into
Saturday night. Southerly flow and WAA induced showers will
continue Sunday, however, a stout cap will be in place, limiting
the storm potential.

The next chance for severe weather comes on Monday as the
upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Rockies,
inciting surface cyclogenesis in northern CO and the NE
panhandle. The area will be in the open warm sector with
southerly flow and 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The best convective
potential currently looks to be Monday evening as a cap will be
in place through much of the day, however, many of the finer details
have yet to be resolved by current model guidance.

Beyond Monday, model guidance begins to diverge, though the
chances for showers and storms look to continue through at least
midweek. Given that several consecutive days of showers and
storms are expected through the next few days and into the
extended, concerns about river/areal flooding are beginning to
form. However, given the amount of uncertainty in the forecast
at this point, confidence in flooding occurring/locations of
flooding are low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail til late in the forecast pd.
Sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds are expected thru the TAF pd. However,
btn 02Z-04Z thunderstorms with cigs btn 3-5kft are fcst. Vis may
be reduced to 3-5SM in showers. Winds to begin the TAF pd will
be out of the south btn 5-10kts but will incr to 10-15kts with
gusts to 20-25kts aft 17Z-18Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carothers
LONG TERM...Carothers
AVIATION...73