St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS63 KEAX 061658
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler conditions continue today with mostly cloudy skies.

- Warming trend expected into Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible late on Friday and then
again on Saturday. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Broad Canadian high pressure is expected to build south today into
the Northern Plains. Dry air emanating from the surface ridge
will continue to build south across the region today eating away
at early morning precipitation potential across the area.
Frontogenetic forcing near 650 mb is leading to the development
of snow aloft, but as snow falls towards the surface it melts
and sublimates leading to little precipitation accumulation
along and south of I-70. Frontogenetic forcing is expected to
weaken this morning and subsidence from the building ridge into
the area will bring precipitation to an end across the region
this morning, and potentially allow for some scattering of cloud
cover through the afternoon hours today. Despite the efforts of
the filtered sunshine, temperatures will remain quite cool for
this time of year with 850 hpa temperatures hovering just a
degree or two above freezing.

With surface ridge building into the region tonight, winds will go
light; however, mid and high clouds look to remain across the region
through much of the night limiting radiative cooling and the
potential for fog.

As the surface ridge builds east, expect flow to turn out of the
southwest though temperatures only warm a few degrees on Thursday
keeping temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal norms. Warmer
air continues to build into the region Thursday night into Friday as
upper ridge across the west expands east.

A series of shortwaves dropping southeast in northwest flow
aloft could lead to periodic chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. The first of these
disturbances is focused on Friday afternoon/evening, but limited
instability with a significant lack of near surface moisture
will limit storm coverage and severity.

A surface cold front looks to move through the region Saturday
night into early Sunday morning creating another chance for
showers and thunderstorms, though low level moisture and
instability look to be in relatively short supply. Winds on the
backside of the front look relatively strong with 35-40 knots in
the 925-850 mb layer.

Upper level ridge strengthens across the western US this
weekend and builds east next week leading to more substantial
warming. Periodic short waves continue leading to scattered
thunderstorm chances continuing into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the TAF sites through
the period. Some fair weather CU and higher level cloud cover at
times through the period, but well into VFR category. Northerly
winds through daytime hours today, going light and variable this
evening and into overnight before settling out of the SW late
overnight and through remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Curtis