St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

421
FXUS63 KEAX 221041
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures expected with highs coolest Monday and
then warming to the lower 80s the rest of the week.

- The upcoming weekend will see more heat and temperatures flipping
to above normal.

- Today should be dry. Rest of the week will have some rain
  chances with quick moving systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Expect a blanket of cloud cover in the wake of yesterday`s rains
across the region. Model time-height sections from the RAP and NAM
keep this blanket in for much of the morning with clouds scattering
out in the afternoon. These clouds and the steady northeasterly
winds will help keep temperatures below normal for today. With skies
clearing out tonight after a soaking rain, normally fog would
form...but we may be getting a start to a return flow of some
easterly or southeasterly winds as high pressure shifts off to our
east. Will lean a little cautious here and add in some patchy fog
wording in case winds are slower to pick up.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Tuesday should be several degrees warmer, though likely still below
climo for early summer. Winds will be more solidly from the
southeast as another low pressure system forms over the Central
Plains. Northwest flow pattern aloft may wield another diving
shortwave over the region in the evening hours. If that system
doesn`t fully develop, we could see storms form along a precip water
gradient looking to set up somewhere NW to SE across our area. NBM
actually has a fairly high PoP for after 06-12Z Wednesday, likely
featuring that combination potential. LREF members are fairly high
as well, so see no good reason to stray from NBM at this point.

Additional waves look to move through here Wed through Fri. The
Friday system will be as flow aloft becomes more west to east, so we
could see more rainfall in the vicinity with that one. Something to
watch over the coming days.

The weekend may end up dry but warming as southerly winds dominate
the Central Plains and ridging aloft moves across MO. We`ll flip to
above normal temperatures for the weekend. By Sunday peak heat
indices could rise above 100 for many locations. NBM and LREF
members do carry some low-end pops/QPF. Even with ridging in place
though you can get some pulse storm development, so again will keep
NBM as is.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Blanket of MVFR-cig stratus continues over most of the forecast
area this hour. Based on time height sections from the RAP and
NAM have gone pessimistic with a later timing for those cigs to
lift...now holding off on VFR to mid afternoon. Winds generally
will be from the northeast...but will become lighter from the
east tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM...Sharp
AVIATION...Sharp