St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

451
FXUS63 KEAX 091215
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
715 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* An active weather pattern is expected today through the
  weekend and into early next week.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible tonight. Large
  hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

* Although several rounds of storms area expected Friday
  through the the severe threat looks low at this time.

* The next threat for severe storms will come Monday night into
  Tuesday, but uncertainty remains high.

* Several consecutive days of rain could lead to minor river/areal
  flood concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Early this morning, a weak cold front has sagged into northern
Missouri. This front will be the focus for active weather the next
few days. A few showers have developed along this front as a weak
LLJ is overriding the front this morning. This weak LLJ remains
persistent throughout the day today so a few showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible across northern Missouri
where the front remains stationary. Highs today will range from the
mid 70s to near 80 south of the front with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s nearer the front. Tonight, the LLJ will intensify and nose
into the area as a upper level shortwave moves into the area on
quasi-zonal flow. This will allow thunderstorms to develop, some of
which may be strong to severe as 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be
available with 50-60kts of effective shear. The main threat with
these storms will be elevated hail producer north of the front
however, an isolated storm capable of damaging winds cannot be ruled
out. The area that will see the best potential for severe storms
will be north of I-70 and west of I-35. Storms will continue through
the overnight as the frontal boundary slowly sinks south across the
CWA and will weaken during the morning hours as the LLJ diminishes.
Where the front stalls on Friday will be where the focus for storms
and the potential for any storm to severe storms will reside.
Current model guidance keeps the front just south of the area
limiting severe potential however, several weak shortwaves moving
through the area on continued quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue
shower and thunderstorm chances through the day on Friday and into
Friday night with the highest PoPs (70-90%) across the southern CWA
nearest the front. With the area residing north of the front under
cloudy skies highs on Friday will cool into the upper 50s to upper
60s.

Friday night into Saturday, the pattern begins to change however,
conditions will remain active. During this period a upper level
trough will move into California coast and shift into the eastern
Rockies. This will allow downstream upper level ridging to build in
over the region. The surface front south of the area will begin to
lift back north across the area. With several lead shortwave
ejecting out ahead of the upper level trough into the area,
additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected
Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday this,
upper level trough weakens into a shortwave as it move from the
eastern Rockies into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This
will leave a an attendant cold front to move slowly across the
Plains States. Additional round of WAA advection showers and storms
out ahead of the front will continue through the period aided by the
LLJ and weak shortwave in southwesterly flow aloft. The best bet for
a brief break in precipitation looks like it may come in Monday as
the upper flow become less active and the persistent LLJ become
focused north and east of the forecast area. However, by Monday
night into Tuesday another upper level trough will move from the
eastern Rockies into western Plains forcing the stalled cold front
across the Plains into the area. This system would need to be
monitored for potential severe weather. This trough moves through
the area Tuesday night with the chance for dry conditions to return
Wednesday.

Highs on Saturday, with upper level ridging building into the area
and the warm front lifting north, will be in the 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday temperatures will again be in the 70s. Monday looks to be the
warmest day of the forecast period with less chance for showers
during the day, and strong WAA highs will rise into the low to mid
80s. High Tuesday, ahead of the front will rise into the mid to
upper 70s before returning to near normal in the mid 60s to lower
70s behind the front Wednesday

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conds with sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds are expected thru
02Z-05Z. However, btn 02Z-05Z thunderstorms with MVFR cigs btn
2-3kft are fcst. Vis may be reduced to 2-4SM in showers. Aft
05Z-07Z...IFR cigs with lgt thunderstorms reducing vis to 4-5SM
are fcst. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south
btn 5-10kts but will incr to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts aft
17Z-18Z. A cold front will approach the TAF site btn 02Z-05Z
shifting winds to the SW/W btn 10-15kts for a pd before veering
to the NNW/N btn 5-10kts behind the front aft 05Z-07Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73