St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

246
FXUS63 KEAX 241906
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
206 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat is expected to build into the region through the weekend
  and continue into early next week. A heat advisory is in effect
  Saturday along and south of I-70, and region-wide Sunday into
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Shortwave across west central MO as of 18Z is expected to work east
this afternoon and evening allowing upper level ridge across the
southwestern US to expand north and east. Upper level subsidence
behind departing shortwave should lead to a reduction in storm
potential late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs have
offered a variety of solutions of isolated shower/storm activity,
largely focused south of I-70 through the evening hours.  Moist
adiabatic lapse rates aloft keep instability limited, but partial
clearing across eastern KS into west central Missouri may allow for
a late afternoon/evening pop up storm.  Weak shear should keep
anything that develops subsevere.

Weak low level jet is expected build heat and humidity northward
tonight strengthening capping inversion across the region and
temperatures remaining in the 70s overnight. Heat is expected to
build further on Saturday, and have issued a heat advisory along and
south of I-70 Saturday. Heat is expected to build further Sunday
into Monday, and have issued a heat advisory area wide through
Monday evening. Models suggest there may be a few ridge ridging
short waves, one that may result in an MCS Sunday night into Monday
morning across the Upper Midwest. Through collaboration, have sided
with the idea that there will be limiting lingering impacts across
the region on Monday.

A cold front may try to build south across the region Monday night
into Tuesday.  South of the front, there is the potential for the
need for additional heat headlines, but the timing of the front is
unclear at this point.

Longwave pattern remains late into the week with upper ridge across
the western CONUS, with shortwaves continuing along the northern
periphery of the ridge.  With little agreement on timing of the
waves, left the model blend as is with above normal temperatures
and periodic low chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Rain showers are expected to push east this afternoon, with IFR
ceilings improving into the MVFR range. Should see additional
improvement in ceilings this evening, with VFR conditions
returning Saturday morning from SW to NE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028-
     029-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-
     102.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT