St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

185
FXUS63 KEAX 022326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Weather Conditions This Weekend

- Warmer Temperatures Next Week

- Mostly Dry Forecast Next 7 Days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Broad surface anticyclone behind the cold front has been keeping
conditions clear across the forecast area today, along with drier
and cooler conditions. This will remain the trend through the
weekend. An H5 high over the desert southwest will force any short-
wave disturbances that emanate over the Canadian Prairie Provinces to
remain north of the area. This will result in mid-level zonal flow
across the lower Missouri River Valley. Through the weekend, high
temperatures will reach into the lower and mid 70s. Early mornings
will be a bit cooler, with upper 40s to lower 50s possible. Light
winds and strong radiational cooling may help promote some fog
development, but overall moisture may be to limited for it to become
widespread.

A few short-wave trough axes will force the surface anticyclone
eastward into the Great Lakes Region for the start of the work week,
but most of the dCVA stays north of the area, and this is also where
all the precipitation chances will remain, keeping our forecast area
dry. Through the middle of the next work week, ridge over the
southwestern CONUS will amplify and increase dAVA into the Central
CONUS, allowing another stronger surface anticyclone to develop.
This will push a thermal ridge eastward, which will introduce a WAA
regime through the middle of the next week that gradually take
afternoon high temperatures back to the upper 70s and lower 80s,
with perhaps mid 80s for areas well south of U.S. Hwy. 50. Perhaps a
short-wave perturbation of some kind could generate light shower
activity, but current ensemble suites keep probabilities for
detectable precipitation at under 10 percent. Therefore, will keep
the forecast dry for the current 7-day period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Quiet and VFR broadly speaking. Sustained winds under 10kts and
gradually shift clockwise through the period, settling out of
the S/SSE. It is possible to see some shallow patchy fog develop
with the clear skies and light winds, but would be most likely
at KSTJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Curtis