St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

120
FXUS63 KEAX 111847
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
147 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with typical July heat and humidity levels are
  expected today through early next week.

- Temperatures will heat up by the middle of next week, with a
  30-70% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F Thursday
  through Saturday.

- Low-end rain chances (15-25%) return to the forecast Wednesday
  for areas south of I-70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Broad mid-level ridging is present across the western and
central CONUS, with a 500-hPA trough stretching from the lower
Great Lakes through the southern Great Plains. This is the
trough that has been responsible for the active weather across
the area over the past couple of days. As it exits to the
southeast, the area will see clearing skies and dry, summer-like
weather with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and heat indices in
the low 90s this afternoon. A few lingering clouds associated
with the shortwave east of Highway 65 may taper highs in that
area, but skies should continue to clear through the afternoon.

By Sunday, the ridge will slide east and be centered over the
Northern Plains, with an omega block setting up to keep this
pattern in place through the majority of the next week.
Temperatures will hold in the mid-to-upper 80s on Sunday before
gradually climbing through the week as the ridging drifts
further south. The shortwave will have broken down over the
southern MS River Valley by Wednesday, allowing some moisture
to return to the area. This will create a setup for potential
garden-variety, summertime afternoon convection. Showers and
storms would be isolated to scattered in nature, with the
maximum 15-25% chances confined to areas south of I-70.

On the heat side, both NBM and LREF guidance depict a 30-45%
chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F on Thursday and a
50-70% chance on Friday and Saturday. On the bright side, dew
points should be capped in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which
will help keep heat indices from being too much higher than the
actual temperature. As of this forecast cycle, heat indices are
expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s by Thursday afternoon
and pushing 100F on Friday and Saturday.

Long range model and ensemble guidance are in pretty good
agreement that the ridge will begin to shift to the west by
next weekend. However, disagreements in potential shortwaves
moving through the flow are resulting in uncertainty regarding
precipitation chances through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all four
terminals. Some spotty cumulus may develop this afternoon, but
no impacts are expected. Winds will remain light out of the
northeast through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Carothers