St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS63 KEAX 151145
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
545 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and a bit warmer today.

- Gusty winds return Friday with 30-40 MPH gusts possible.

- Some flurries are possible early Friday morning (best chances
  across far NE and central MO). Chances for sprinkles/flurries
  continue after sunrise Friday. No accumulations are expected.

- Another plunge of colder temperatures this weekend. Highs in
  the 20s and single digit lows expected Saturday and Sunday
  respectively.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Ridging across the central CONUS provides a brief break in the
weather action for your Thursday. Southerly winds at low levels do
push relatively warmer air into the region pushing temperatures
slightly higher into the 40s; however, northwest flow aloft will
keep temperatures in check.

Satellite imagery continues to show a loose rex block across the
eastern Pacific. This complimented with the deep trough that is
slowly moving east set up a relatively narrow channel for shortwaves
to flow across the country. Over the past few days, ensemble
forecast guidance has suggested the development of another wave
across Canada that is expected to follow this routing across the
central CONUS. Looking at water vapor imagery, the aforementioned
wave can be seen starting to develop across western Canada. Strong
cyclonic vorticity advection deepens the trough as well as enhance
frontogenesis along the leading edge of the cold air. Momentum
builds behind the front as the trough strengthens. A leading
shortwave perturbs the relatively warmer and more moist air mass in
front of it Thursday night. This could promote the development of
snow along the leading axis which is expected to pass more through
the Quad Cities and northern IL; however, it could bring some snow
across into far NE and central MO. Better chances for snow come
early Friday morning as deterministic guidances suggests a strong
maximum of upper level CVA transits the region which could provide
enough lift to create some flurries during the pre-sunrise hours.
The primary limitation for development looks to be the location of
the surface front relative to the arrival of the upper level CVA.
The surface front`s position ahead of the CVA as well as northwest
flow looks to dry out low level significantly and may not leave
enough moisture to either a) create dendrites or more likely b) stop
it from evaporating before it reaches the ground.

During the daylight hours Friday a strong jet streak reaches down to
the surface across the northern Plains. This looks to bring
significant wind gusts across SD, NE, and western KS. Flow slows
down comparatively as it reaches NW MO, but wind gusts of 30-40 MPH
remain possible across the western parts of the CWA. Advisory level
winds look to remain outside of our region, but an intermittent 45+
MPH gust is not implausible. Aggressive deterministic models are
hinting at some chances for snow Friday afternoon. It seems
plausible because of the surface convergence of the strong NW winds
to the NW and lesser NW winds over us. This would create some
kinematic lift; however, the lack of upper level support and
potential lack of moisture limit the potential for anything more
than flurries. In a high wind environment, flurries would be
difficult as the fine dendrites would get shredded. Further
assessments of hi-res guidance could add some clarity to this
potential.

Much like the system last Friday and Saturday, this one is going to
be a bit of a one-two punch, especially in the temperature
department. Highs Friday looks to happen around midnight with the
potential for them to rebound slightly to around 40 degrees in the
afternoon. A second pulse of Arctic air moves in Friday night into
Saturday and pushes temperatures even lower capping Saturday highs
in the teen and 20s. The good news is, this cold high pressure
systems pumps the brakes on the gust winds which will keep it from
being dangerously cold; just majorly unpleasant.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the few mornings this season where
temperatures across the region bottom out in the single digits area
wide. The good news is that the region will be on the backside of
the high from earlier; thus reorienting flow SW. This kick to the
teeth of warm air advection rebounds temperatures Sunday back
towards the 40s for those west of US-65 (sorry Kirksville, you
probably will not get above freezing). Long term guidance does show
a general warming of temperatures, but continues to place the region
along the divider between warmer southern CONUS air and colder
northern CONUS. This is going to result in a tether ball like wind
flux where days will swing from north to south and back again each
day seeing temperature bounce from mild to less mild. Surprisingly,
this residence on the previously mentioned divider does not make the
pattern more active. Long range guidance has placed us in the
doldrums of precipitation chances taking most of the activity either
far north or far south. Of course, minor oscillations may open up
some opportunity, but that will likely be dependent on how the upper
level pattern evolves over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Southerly winds with some SCT low and high clouds
expected for today. Some gusts are possible through the daylight
hours mainly during the afternoon. A front moves through the
area overnight that shifts winds to northwesterly. Winds
accelerate near and behind the frontal passage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel