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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 10:27 pm CDT Apr 1, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Temperature rising to around 59 by 5am. East wind 10 to 13 mph becoming south southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
T-storms


Thursday

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 23 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Breezy.
Showers
Likely then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Mostly Clear


Friday

Friday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  High near 75. South wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers


Friday
Night
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
Showers

Saturday

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
Mostly Sunny


Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32.
Mostly Clear


Sunday

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 60.
Sunny


Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Mostly Clear


Lo 51 °F Hi 69 °F Lo 48 °F Hi 75 °F Lo 36 °F Hi 54 °F Lo 32 °F Hi 60 °F Lo 38 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Temperature rising to around 59 by 5am. East wind 10 to 13 mph becoming south southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 23 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Friday
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 75. South wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 32.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 60.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
Monday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Wednesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Breezy.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
950
FXUS63 KEAX 012326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon
  for areas generally southwest of Kansas City to Sedalia line.
  This will depend on how far north a warm front lifts
  northward.

- Widespread showers and storms expected tonight, mainly south
  of a Kirksville to Kansas City line. Widespread rainfall
  amounts of 1.5- 3" are likely, with localized areas exceeding
  3". A flood watch has been issued for this area from 00Z
  tonight through 18Z Thursday.

- There is some potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon,
  mainly east of a Unionville to Boonville line.

- Severe weather continues to look likely Friday afternoon and
  evening across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of 18Z, observations and satellite imagery show the warm front
just south of the forecast area, in the vicinity of Chanute to Fort
Scott to south of Lebanon, MO. This front should slowly lift
northward into Linn Co KS to Clinton, MO by late this afternoon.
This should result in about 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE building into
our extreme southern zones. As a result, the best potential for any
afternoon/ early evening severe weather will be in our far south.
The further north one is from the warm front, the lower the chances
for severe weather this afternoon. Given the CAPE/shear combination,
large hail is the main hazard. But can`t rule out some strong winds
and a tornado, especially if a storm can anchor to the warm front as
storm motions should be nearly parallel to the boundary.

For this evening and overnight, confidence is fairly high that
widespread showers and storms will develop as strong ascent develops
over much of the forecast area. Increasingly diffluent flow aloft
with strong low/mid-level moisture transport into and over the warm
front will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation after
00Z tonight. This looks somewhat similar to the previous night where
convection really increased in coverage from about 02Z-04Z and
persisted through the overnight. Ensemble guidance from the HREF
shows PMM QPF with widespread 1.5-3" amounts south of a Kirksville
to Kansas City line. Within this area there are pockets of 3"+ rain
amounts. NAEFS shows precipitable water values are at or near the
max values in that system`s climatology for this time of year over
much of the forecast area. With increased confidence in heavy
rainfall tonight, with some of the area already seeing heavy
rainfall from the previous night, a flood watch has been issued from
00Z Thu / 7 PM tonight through 18Z Thu / 1 PM tomorrow. As
mentioned, this includes areas south of a Kirksville to Kansas City
line.

For Thursday, the new Day 2 convective outlook from SPC brings a
slight risk into our eastern zones. This will be ahead of a cold
front that will be quickly tracking east through the forecast area.
Ahead of the cold front, modest instability will develop, with
SBCAPE values ranging from roughly 1000-1500 J/kg. Favorable deep-
layer shear nearly perpendicular to the front will favor some
discrete cells. Timing for our eastern zones for this round of
potentially severe storms looks like the afternoon hours, ending by
00Z as the front moves east of the area.

For Friday, a very unstable air mass will develop with afternoon
SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. This will occur in a strongly
sheared environment with shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the
front. This will favor, at least initially, discrete storm
development, with all hazard types possible. However, steep mid-
level lapse rates may support very large hail. Storms should then
quickly congeal into a more linear mode and with 0-3km shear of 30-
40 kts, there may be some embedded mesovortices as the line tracks
east that could lead to enhanced wind gusts/damage and/or
tornadoes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Storms are developing rapidly to the south and west of the KC
terminals early this evening. They should continue to move
northeast into the metro area by 03z, with persistent
showers/storms through the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR
restrictions are likely through much of the night, with east
winds around 10 kt veering to the south and increasing to 15 to
25 kt with higher gusts by 12z. Lingering showers should quickly
exit to the east after 12z, with rapid improvement of
ceilings/visibility to VFR by midday. Winds will continue to
veer to westerly by afternoon, with a slow decrease in
speeds/gusts during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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