St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXUS63 KEAX 062327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming temperatures generally through Saturday then again into
  next week.

  - Brief cool down Sunday

* Best widespread shower/storm chances appear Saturday PM into
  early Sunday. Strong to severe potential appears low/not
  currently expected.

  - Lesser shower/storm chances Friday PM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Very broad/expansive area of surface high pressure dominated the
Plains today, helping yield largely quiet conditions. With the
center of the high pressure gliding down the Rockies Front Ranges,
light to modest northerly winds have prevailed locally, helping keep
temperatures cool and dry. Looking more aloft into the mid-upper
levels, central CONUS remains within a NW flow regime and multiple
shortwaves can be seen clearly on GOES WV imagery. Though with an
abundantly dry air mass below, much ado about nothing, at least
nothing more than some periods of increased cloud cover. High
pressure continues to slide southward overnight and eventually more
eastward over the Southern Plains. This will allow winds to go more
light/variable for a time overnight before reestablishing out of the
SW. There is the potential for some patchy frost tonight, mainly in
rural and cold prone areas, but confidence is limited given the
expectation for some lingering to periodic mid-high level cloud
cover in the region.

While NW flow is notorious for low confidence shortwaves, guidance
is in pretty good agreement on overall quiet conditions through the
end of the work week. A compact shortwave looks to pass just N/NE of
the area Thursday, but could eek out some very light rain in far
N/NE Missouri. Otherwise, SW/S surface winds continue through this
time frame and will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to
70s. By later Friday, a shortwave will help induce and push a
surface low off the Front Range and eastward along the
Nebraska/Kansas border. This will signal our next opportunity for an
rainfall. Warm front appears poised to lift toward/into Southern
Iowa, keeping precipitation northward and more tied to the cold
frontal passage for much of the area. Limited moisture return and
moderate (at best) lapse rates may yield >1000 J/kg SBCAPE within an
environment of 30-40kts of deep shear. The marginal shear and
long/skinny CAPE profiles tend not to raise eyebrows. Generally
expect more generic thunderstorms with the best chance for any
stronger cores with initial storms before likely lining out
along/near the front. This generally aligns with the SPC Day 3
General Thunder and various ML (GEFS or Euro aligned) output.

Warmer into Saturday with the above cold front not really packing
any punch and SW flow quickly returning; highs into the low to mid
80s in many cases. By Saturday evening, a more widespread
opportunity for thunderstorms remains signaled across synoptic
guidance, but too does not raise many eyebrows. Current depictions
suggest surface low struggles to develop and sustain out into the
Plains, leaving much of the storm potential along a cold front
dropping southward out of Iowa. Limited MUCAPE (<1000 J/kg), poor
mid-level lapse rates, and marginal to unsupportive deep shear
likely yield another round of general thunder storms. Given the
stronger nature of cold front, Sunday will be briefly cooler with
highs falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Into next week, general NW mid-upper level flow continues to blanket
the central CONUS. Precipitation opportunities appear limited, with
shortwaves predominantly depicted to pass N/NE of the area. Of more
confidence though will be additional warming temperatures. Mid-upper
level height rises and low teens deg C 850mb trying to nose into the
region may allow temperatures to top out Tuesday. This would likely
yield 80s across the forecast area with an outside shot at touching
90 in western areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the
forecast period. Seeing some lingering gusts at surrounding
sites, but expecting those to fall off by the evening as the
sun sets. Also seeing a daytime cu field off to the north
approaching terminals, so have left in FEW060 through the
evening to account for any lingering cu. Expecting winds to
become variable for a few hours in the evening, before
prevailing out of the southwest. Also expecting a brief passage
of some denser high level clouds, before skies clear during the
day tomorrow. Expecting winds to intensify to around 10-15 kts
with gusts around 20-25 kts through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...SPG