St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS63 KEAX 191111
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
611 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperature trend slightly above normal today, then well
  above normal through the week.

- Dry conditions expected through the week with low
  probabilities returning for the weekend for NW Missouri and NE
  Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

This work week continues to look quiet with above normal
temperatures as the next chance for precipitation doesn`t look to
arrive until this weekend at the earliest. Today, quasi-zonal upper
level flow will prevail over the central CONUS. This coupled with
modest WAA will allow highs to push a few degrees above normal in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight into tomorrow a upper level
trough will dig south along the west coast. This will allow
upstream, upper level ridging to build over the central CONUS.
Height rises coupled with continued modest WAA will drive highs into
the low to mid 70s. Wednesday the upper level trough will continue to
dig southward off the California coast further amplifying the ridge
over the central CONUS. These continued height rise will drive highs
into the mid to upper 70s. Thursday the upper level trough off the
west coast finally pushes onshore along the California coast and
moves into the central Rockies by Friday. This will push the upper
level ridge axis eastward directly over the forecast area for
Thursday and Friday pushing highs 10-15F degrees above normal with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. By Saturday, a much weakened
upper level trough will push northeastward from the central Rockies
into the northern Plains. This will force an attendant cold front
into the Plains Saturday however, the local area will remain ahead
this front under moderate WAA which will keep highs in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. The cold front will look to sag into the area Saturday
night into Sunday as the upper level trough moves into the Upper
Midwest. Moisture with this front looks meager at this this time
however, some light showers will be possible (20-30%) along and west
of the I-35 corridor. High pressure looks to quick move into the
area Sunday behind the front and with no cold air advecting in
behind the front, highs will remain above normal in the 70s

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn high clouds
expected. Winds will be lgt out of the SE to begin the TAF pd
but will become more SSE/S aft 14Z-15Z and incr to 5-10kts. Aft
00Z-01Z...winds will back to the SE/ESE and diminish to less
than 6kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73