St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

113
FXUS63 KEAX 182301
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost possible overnight tonight into Sunday
  morning. Sensitive vegetation will need to be protected.

- Warming trend begins on Sunday and continues into Wed/Thurs.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today the upper level trough that was the catalyst for severe
weather yesterday is moving through the region. Cold air advection
that came in behind the cold front last night has continued today
keeping highs below normal in the mid to upper 50s. Surface high
pressure will move into the area this evening and will remain in
control overnight tonight. This will provide a good radiational
cooling setup with lows dropping into the mid 30s to upper 30s. As
such, patchy frost may be possible, particularly for sheltered area
north of the Missouri River. Consequently, any sensitive vegetation
may need to be protected. Surface high pressure will sink south of
the area tomorrow with downslope westerly flow developing in it`s
wake. This, in addition to subtle height rises will allow highs to
return to above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Monday, a upper level trough moving toward the west coast will cause
upstream ridging to build over the eastern/central Rockies. Locally,
this will provide additional height rises across the area allow
highs to warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Tuesday the upper level
ridge axis moves into the eastern Rockies/western Plains.  This will
put the forecast area under northwest flow aloft on the lee side of
the ridge. continued height rises with increased WAA will push highs
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A subtle shortwave dropping south in
northwest flow may be enough to produce a few storms Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. Currently, the NBM is only producing
a 10% chance however we may chances increase as we progress through
the weekend. Wednesday, the upper level ridge moves directly over
the forecast area with highs rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The next chance good chance for storms arrives on Thursday as he
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the west coast on
Tuesday and shifts northeastward into the northern/central Plains by
Thursday forcing a cold front into the area. This will allow
thunderstorms to develop, however, the better potential for severe
storms appears to lie west of the CWA. Highs Thursday ahead of the
front will be in the upper 70s to near 80. Showers will linger into
Friday as the upper level trough swings through the local area with
cooler conditions in the 60s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Gusty northwest winds are
expected to subside with sunset this evening. As the surface
ridge to the south shifts east, southwest winds develop at the
surface. These winds are expected to become gusty after 15Z
tomorrow with strong mixing in dry airmass and clear skies.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...BT