St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS63 KEAX 100402
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures continue into early next
  week.
  - 15 to 20+ degrees above normal at times

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

In most cases across the area, not a cloud in the sky. Or at the
very least, hardly a cloud in the sky. As broad mid-level ridging is
building into Central CONUS today, not too much surprise there.
This also lends to the ongoing seasonally warm to hot
conditions. Temperatures early this afternoon are predominantly
in the low to mid 80s, on their way to mid to upper 80s in most
cases. A few spots near to south of Interstate 70 may touch the
low 90s. This potential too is already evident with sites like
Clinton MO already to 87 degrees.

The large scale pattern will begin to see significant changes
through the weekend, to include... Hurricane Isaias makes landfall
late tonight and gradually drifts northward through the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Hurricane Simon makes landfall along the NW
Mexican Coast late Saturday night. A trough/cutoff low begins to dig
into the PNW and down the West Coast, and eventually brings Simon
remnants into the fold. The general evolution is well corroborated
among the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles through
the weekend. While Isaias drifts northward post-landfall, the west
coast features will progress the pattern such that mid-level ridging
builds into the central CONUs and helps deflect Isaias eastward,
preventing any sensible effects to the forecast area. With the mid-
level ridging though, well above normal temperatures will continue.
Expect highs through the weekend similar to today, mid to upper 80s
and some spots south of Interstate 70 possibly hitting the low 90s.

The work-week will start off similar to the weekend, if not a couple
to few degrees warmer in spots as the thermal ridge axis gets pushed
over the area. With depictions of low 20s deg C, high temperatures a
couple to few degrees higher than the weekend are anticipated. This
may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC
Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current
forecast is 90. Moving toward the middle portions of the week, a
sizable amount of uncertainty remains in the forecast. Namely around
precipitation onset and temperatures. This includes high
temperatures spreads of 10 deg F or greater both Tuesday and
Wednesday. That said, there appears there may be a gradually growing
consensus around a faster and not as deep (latitudinally) western
trough. Within the 12z LREF cluster analysis, this is suggested with
~41% of total members clustering around this prevailing solution and
an additional ~19% around a similar, albeit slightly slower and
weaker, solution. Should that prevail, it would tend to push the
warm front further north, which in turn would favor warmer
temperatures and best precipitation chances further north on
Tuesday. At this time, the NBM and WPC guidance looks to still favor
a cooler and more southerly solution, in part as they would have
primarily used the previous couple runs of the LREF. For now, have
not deviated from NBM/WPC guidance, with desire to see more run-run
confidence and/or continued trend. Regardless,  it will rain within
the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to
narrow that window some. Of additional note, as the western trough
kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and
a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the
region Wednesday evening / night. This is most evident with the
strong wind fields and forcing vs CAPE ... high-shear, low-
CAPE. This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent
risk area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. The weather pattern remains consistent with generally
southerly winds becoming gusty during the mid to late morning
tomorrow. Gusts continue until sunset. Winds become a little
more SSE through the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Pesel