St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

486
FXUS63 KEAX 212324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain/severe weather threat through 7 PM primarily
  confined to our far southern areas (Linn, Bates, Henry,
  Pettis, and Cooper Counties), but storms may end up forming
  just south of the forecast area.

- Below normal temperatures expected throughout the week with
  highs generally in the 70s to around 80.

- Most areas will be dry Monday through Thursday with only a few
  small 20-30% chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight...

A cold front will continue to race southeast across the
forecast area this afternoon. This cold front will be the
focusing mechanism for thunderstorm redevelopment.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate by 3-4 PM, but by the
time the storms really get going the front will be across our
southern tier of counties or possibly even south of our forecast
area. Consequently, the threat for heavy rain will be focused
along our southern most counties or just south of our forecast
area. Decided to keep the flood watch going for our southern
most counties until after the cold front tracks south of our
area, which should be prior to the 7 PM expiration time.

There is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the
storms that form along the front later this evening (Linn,
Bates, Henry, Pettis, and Cooper Counties). However, as
mentioned earlier, thunderstorms may end up forming just south
of our area or not really take off in strength until exiting to
our southeast. Will still need to monitor for thunderstorms all
areas along and south of the front this afternoon/early evening
until after the front exits our area. Surface winds continue to
veer ahead of the cold front limiting low level and deep layer
shear (~30 kts and decreasing). MLCAPE values are adequate for
severe weather, around 1,500 J/KG. Overall, its a pretty
marginal set up for severe weather and over a very limited
portion of our area (far south), for a limited window until the
front passes through (~3-6 PM).

Dry weather is then expected tonight behind the cold front as
drier/cooler air filters into the region.


Monday and Tuesday...

There is high confidence in great weather with below normal
summer time temperatures (highs mainly in the 70s) and dry
conditions. Forecast models have high temperatures tightly
clustered in the mid 70s Monday and upper 70s Tuesday for most
areas including the KC metro area.


Wednesday through Sunday...

Overall the upper pattern will be progressive and fairly zonal
with weak/subtle waves passing through the area. These short
waves will bring generally small chances of precipitation until
the wave pattern can be better timed out as we get closer.
There are off and on chances for precipitation beginning Tuesday
night, but currently the most favored period for precipitation
is Thursday night into Friday with the highest POPs across the
forecast area around 50%. We expect warmer near to above normal
temperatures to return next weekend with highs back in the mid
80s to around 90 with above normal confidence in this next
weekend warmth for being a 6-7 day forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Increasing cloud cover from the north with MVFR ceilings expected.
Clouds persist through the overnight period with guidance suggesting
a 60-70% chance of IFR conditions before day break. Afterwards,
clouds will scatter out by mid morning with VFR conditions through
the afternoon. Winds will begin out of the north to start the
forecast period and veer to the northeast by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Britt