St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

919
FXUS63 KEAX 251021
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unsettled weather conditions return Tuesday night and continue
  through the work week however, the severe weather and flooding
  threat appears low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Quiet weather is expected today to close out the holiday weekend as
a surface ridge of high pressure is extending from the southern
Great Lakes back into the local area. In addition, a upper level
ridge of high pressure will build into the area today. These height
rises will allow highs to rise into the mid 80s. Tomorrow,
conditions look to remain dry as a weak mid-level level shortwave
will move north towards the area from the southern Plains. While
precipitation looks to hold off until tomorrow night, increasing
cloud cover, particularly across the southern CWA will hold highs in
the low to mid 80s. Tomorrow night, the mid-level shortwave will
move into the region allowing a slight chance (15-30%) of scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly for areas along and
south of the Missouri River. This first shortwave will wash out over
the region Wednesday morning and another mid-level shortwave
approaches the area from the southern High Plains on Wednesday. This
will allow shower and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) to increase over
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The weak
mid-level shortwave will remain over the area Thursday into Friday
allowing for continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
increased coverage (50-80%) diurnally driven. Saturday, the upper
pattern becomes more progressive as the mid-level shortwave finally
begins shifting east of the area however low end (20-40%) chance for
showers and thunderstorms will continue. Despite the chances for
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through
Saturday, flooding is not anticipated nor is severe weather. Highs
through this unsettled period will be seasonable with highs in the
low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday before cooling a bit into the
mid 70s to lower 80s for Friday and Saturday.

Sunday, a surface ridge of high pressure will begin to build into
the area from the Upper Midwest with the ridge axis residing
directly over the forecast area on Monday.This will provide a return
to dry conditions. Highs will remain seasonable in the mid 70s to
lower 80s.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just a few-sct mid-
lvl clouds fcst thru 02Z aft which clr skies prevail. Winds this
morning will be out of the SE/SSE btn 5-10kts but will veer to
the SSE/S by 15Z and incr to nr 10kts. Aft 02Z..winds will back
to the SE/SSE and diminish to around 5kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73