St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS63 KEAX 252330
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...00Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated non-severe storm is possible this evening across far
eastern KS into far western Missouri.

- Increasing severe weather threat later in the day on Sunday into
Sunday night.  All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind a strong cold
  front moving through the region mid-day Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Cold front associated with an occluded low pressure center across
central Canada will continue to slowly push east this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of the front, a weakly unstable atmosphere exists
with increasing low level moisture.  There is a fair amount of cloud
cover across central and eastern KS, but still could see a few
showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the cold front
with 750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and weak short wave building east.
CAMs suggest a few of these storms may approach eastern Kansas into
far western Missouri this evening, though the trend has been to
shift timing a bit later in the evening. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity with relatively weak instability.

Sunday, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies is
expected to lead to increasing southerly winds.  As the warm front
noses into the region, increasing shear and instability is expected.
0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots west of the warm front
and  surface based CAPE increases to 1500-2500 J/kg.  Forecast
soundings suggest there is a bit of a cap near 700 mb, but 25-35
knot low level jet developing Sunday evening across the plains may
weaken the cap. Models also suggest a series of short waves moving
across KS that could assist in the development of convection, but
are largely focused after 06Z Monday. The left exit region of the
upper level jet also noses into the region after 06-09Z Monday,
potentially assisting in lift developing across the region. This all
said. That there are multiple triggers but no clear indication on
if/what will get convection going.

Strong cold front is expected to work through the region mid-day
Monday, bringing an end to the potential for storms. Cooler and
drier conditions are expected through much of the remainder of the
week.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Challenging forecast as moisture lower-level moisture begins to
build into the area tonight and tomorrow. There are low
probabilities for storms late this evening/overnight, depending
on how storms in KS and NE evolve. Have maintained the PROB30
but pushed timing back a few hours. Overnight, there is an
indication that MVFR ceilings will build into the area. Again,
this uncertain at this point and for now is lower probability.
Have added some scattered MVFR ceilings before sunrise given the
uncertainty. Winds seem likely to increase by the afternoon and
become gusty through the end of the forecast. Have added
southeasterly winds of 15-18kts with gusts of 25-28kts. Lastly,
there is a low chance for storms to affect the terminals prior
to the end of this forecast. Right now, the better chances look
to be after 00Z tomorrow so have kept mention out with this
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB