St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS63 KEAX 081125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
625 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather and
  Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall mainly west of I-35
  tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are
  the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard.

- Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather
  Thursday evening for areas east of the KC metro. Damaging wind
  gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with
  1" hail as a lower probability hazard.

- Rain chances stick around through Sunday. Highest rainfall
  totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north
  of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts
  towards NE MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today will be one of the last dry days of the week with mostly
sunny skies and highs reaching the lower 90s. Clouds to start to
build in from NW to SE this evening ahead of our next disturbance.
Guidance shows mid-level shortwave moving through the northern
Plains late tonight which will generate an MCS. So far, the
environment still looks better (lift and shear) over the NE/IA
border just to our NW. Though, we do expect the MCS to clip our
western counties Thursday morning as the MCS starts to dive
south from SE NE. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower
probability hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk (1/5) for
severe weather mostly just for Atchison co since the better
lift will be closer to the front that`ll be draped over NE/IA. A
Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather has also been issued for
areas mainly west of I-35 and north of the KC metro. WPC issued
a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the NW portion
of the state and a Marginal risk (1/4) for areas mostly along
and west of Highway 65. The slight risk was likely issued
because of the 1 hr flash flood guidance over that area as it`d
only take 1-2"/hr rain rates to generate flash flooding. The ERO
outlook encapsulates the areas that are the most likely to get
clipped by the MCS early Thursday morning.

The MCS will get most of its moisture from the LLJ overnight
into Thursday. Once the LLJ decouples on Thursday morning, the
MCS is expected to dissipate. Seems that the MCS gets caught up
moving along the shortwave and pushes northeast through the rest
of the state as it slowly dissipates. This will be one of those
days where the morning convection will heavily influence the
evening convection. Guidance has clouds sticking around until
early afternoon which is why we`ve lowered the high temperatures
on Thursday for areas mainly north of I-70 by a few degrees to
account for the clouds impacting daytime highs. Areas south of
the interstate may not be impacted by the morning convection and
may stay less cloudy throughout the day. Those areas will also
be closer to the warm front that`ll be hanging out over AR and
will likely experience more WAA. Heat index values will range
from 100-104 degrees for those areas.

If we can destabilize over NW MO, there could be a few pop-up
thunderstorms initiating along the leftover MCS boundary near
the KC metro by late afternoon. The question isn`t if we can
destabilize, it`s where we`re going to destabilize and where the
boundary ends up stalling out for Thursday afternoon convection.
Again, if NW MO can conjure up a proper environment, storms
will start there. If not, storms may initiate a bit further east
of the KC metro near the Highway 65 and I-70 intersection over
north-central MO. Wherever these storms decide to initiate,
they will signal the start of the next round of severe weather
for our area. The MCS appears to get a boost from a surface low
or shortwave of some sort on Thursday evening and that`s when
the system starts to get itself together. SPC has upgraded
portions of the area to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather.
The Slight risk covers a pretty large portion of the state and
starts east of the KC metro and goes just south of Chillicothe
down to Lebanon, east past St. Louis. We are expecting damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain to be the main hazards
with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. These individual
storms will merge into an MCS and push east through the
evening/overnight hours. Referring back to the most recent July
4th MCS that moved through the area, there were several counties
that lost power with that storm system. With winds possibly
close to that speed once again, have multiple ways to receive
warnings ahead of any power outages that may occur and be
prepared for nighttime severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The warm front lifts north for the weekend and the latest model
guidance has it settling near I-70 for Friday through Sunday.
This front, coupled with several vort maxima forecast to eject
from the passing wave, will bring us a rainy weekend. Chances
for rain are 30-60% for Friday with the highest chance for rain
occurring overnight into Saturday. Saturday features a 30-40%
chance for rain for most of the day and Sunday has a 15-30%
chance for rain with chances decreasing through the day. Due to
the placement of the front, highest rainfall totals from today
through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a
widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO.

The rain/clouds moving in this weekend will help to keep
temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 80s. With the start of
next week expected to be dry, high temperatures are forecast get
back into the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

TAF sites will remain at VFR for most of the day with clear skies and
variable winds. Showers and thunderstorms move in overnight after 06z.
Winds turn southwesterly tonight and gust near 10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Williams