St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS63 KEAX 181122
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today behind the front, with breezy northwesterly winds
  continuing through mid to late afternoon.

- Patchy frost possible overnight tonight into Sunday morning.

- Warming trend begins on Sunday and continues into Wed/Thurs.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday
  into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a 513 dam closed low centered over the
Manitoba/Ontario border with accompanying troughing extending
southward all the way into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, at
the surface, the cold front continues to push east, draped from
Chicago to St. Louis and into Ozarks. Any trailing stratiform
rain associated with last nights MCS has completely exited the
CWA to the east, with skies expected to clear from west to east
within the next few hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected
today behind the cold front and with the region being firmly
beneath the longwave mid/upper trough, with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 50s to perhaps as warm as 60 degrees.
Breezy northwesterly winds should continue this morning and
afternoon, and with relative humidity dropping to below 30
percent across NW Missouri, this could yield elevated fire
weather conditions. However, recent rains and continued green-up
should temper the fire weather concerns. Model guidance suggests
the chance for some high based showers translating northwest to
southeast across the region later this afternoon, but with very
dry low levels, think the vast majority of rain from these
potential showers would evaporate before reaching the ground.
However, cannot rule out a few sprinkles.

Winds will relax this evening as surface high pressure builds
in from the west. With light winds and clear skies tonight,
strong radiational cooling should help temperatures fall into
the mid to upper 30s for most locations overnight tonight into
Sunday morning. There could be some frost potential for cooler
locations across the CWA. Temperatures should be warmer on
Sunday thanks to downsloping westerly flow, with highs likely
reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s. Any frost potential for
Sunday night into Monday morning should be relegated to far NE
Missouri, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

On Monday, troughing off the west coast should lead to increased
ridging downstream of this trough across the western CONUS.
Meanwhile, a warm front is progged to lift northward through the
region Monday morning, returning low level flow to southerly and
ushering in increased warm air and moisture advection, with
temperatures likely rising into the mid 70s and dew points
increasing from the mid 30s into the mid 40s by Monday
afternoon. A subtle mid level shortwave embedded within the
northwesterly flow aloft is projected to translate from the
Upper Midwest into the Southern Great Lakes region on Tuesday,
and may bring a slight chance for some showers to NE Missouri
Tuesday evening/night. Otherwise, the warming and moistening
trend is expected to continue on Tuesday and into Wednesday as
the western mid/upper trough is projected to enter into the
western CONUS by Wednesday afternoon, leading to increased
ridging over Missouri and Kansas downstream.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday
and into Friday as the aforementioned western mid/upper trough
and an accompanying surface low is projected to advance eastward
into the Plains. SPC has highlighted areas just west of our CWA
within a 15% probability for severe thunderstorms from 7 AM
Thursday through 7 AM Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with clear skies
through the majority of the period (broken mid level clouds
possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours).
Northwesterly winds up to 10 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20
knots should continue through late afternoon, after which winds
should turn westerly and become light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW