St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS63 KEAX 011854
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
154 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon
  for areas generally southwest of Kansas City to Sedalia line.
  This will depend on how far north a warm front lifts
  northward.

- Widespread showers and storms expected tonight, mainly south
  of a Kirksville to Kansas City line. Widespread rainfall
  amounts of 1.5- 3" are likely, with localized areas exceeding
  3". A flood watch has been issued for this area from 00Z
  tonight through 18Z Thursday.

- There is some potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon,
  mainly east of a Unionville to Boonville line.

- Severe weather continues to look likely Friday afternoon and
  evening across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of 18Z, observations and satellite imagery show the warm front
just south of the forecast area, in the vicinity of Chanute to Fort
Scott to south of Lebanon, MO. This front should slowly lift
northward into Linn Co KS to Clinton, MO by late this afternoon.
This should result in about 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE building into
our extreme southern zones. As a result, the best potential for any
afternoon/ early evening severe weather will be in our far south.
The further north one is from the warm front, the lower the chances
for severe weather this afternoon. Given the CAPE/shear combination,
large hail is the main hazard. But can`t rule out some strong winds
and a tornado, especially if a storm can anchor to the warm front as
storm motions should be nearly parallel to the boundary.

For this evening and overnight, confidence is fairly high that
widespread showers and storms will develop as strong ascent develops
over much of the forecast area. Increasingly diffluent flow aloft
with strong low/mid-level moisture transport into and over the warm
front will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation after
00Z tonight. This looks somewhat similar to the previous night where
convection really increased in coverage from about 02Z-04Z and
persisted through the overnight. Ensemble guidance from the HREF
shows PMM QPF with widespread 1.5-3" amounts south of a Kirksville
to Kansas City line. Within this area there are pockets of 3"+ rain
amounts. NAEFS shows precipitable water values are at or near the
max values in that system`s climatology for this time of year over
much of the forecast area. With increased confidence in heavy
rainfall tonight, with some of the area already seeing heavy
rainfall from the previous night, a flood watch has been issued from
00Z Thu / 7 PM tonight through 18Z Thu / 1 PM tomorrow. As
mentioned, this includes areas south of a Kirksville to Kansas City
line.

For Thursday, the new Day 2 convective outlook from SPC brings a
slight risk into our eastern zones. This will be ahead of a cold
front that will be quickly tracking east through the forecast area.
Ahead of the cold front, modest instability will develop, with
SBCAPE values ranging from roughly 1000-1500 J/kg. Favorable deep-
layer shear nearly perpendicular to the front will favor some
discrete cells. Timing for our eastern zones for this round of
potentially severe storms looks like the afternoon hours, ending by
00Z as the front moves east of the area.

For Friday, a very unstable air mass will develop with afternoon
SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. This will occur in a strongly
sheared environment with shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the
front. This will favor, at least initially, discrete storm
development, with all hazard types possible. However, steep mid-
level lapse rates may support very large hail. Storms should then
quickly congeal into a more linear mode and with 0-3km shear of 30-
40 kts, there may be some embedded mesovortices as the line tracks
east that could lead to enhanced wind gusts/damage and/or
tornadoes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

IFR to low MVFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon and
overnight hours, before improving tomorrow morning. Easterly
winds will prevail during this time and then trend to the south
and southwest by late in the forecast period. Once winds become
southwesterly, strong gusts are anticipated, potentially in the
30-35kt range.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB