St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

393
FXUS63 KEAX 282333
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday evening.

* Most areas will dry out this week with the next widespread
  small chance (20-30%) for rain holding off until Independence
  weekend (Saturday Night/Sunday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

We expect to be locked into a hot and dry pattern through at
least Thursday, but probably through Saturday (Independence
Day). NBM box and whisker plots for the KC metro area indicate
high confidence of continued highs in the 90s with 100-110 heat
index values through Saturday July 4th. We start to see more
model uncertainty around Sunday July 5th with a possible upper
trough/surface cold front working into the region.

Through Thursday we are only seeing a 2-3 degree model spread
in KC between the 25th and 75th percentile and about 1 degree
warmer each day. Therefore, that is some high confidence heat.
The NBM currently indicates that the warmest days of the
period will be Friday and Saturday (July 4th) just ahead of the
next upper shortwave/surface cold front. Therefore, if this
model trend continues we will need to extend the Extreme Heat
Warning through July 4th.

The western United States upper trough is impressively deep for
this late in June and there is video of snow falling over the
mountain passes of western Wyoming. The upper ridge across the
southeastern United States is also noteworthy and responsible
for our heat. The battle zone this week between the western
trough and southeastern ridge will keep most of the storms
confined to the Dakotas and possibly down into Nebraska.
Occasional overnight Nebraska storms will try to work east, but
will run into our unfavorable airmass with most storms dieing
out prior to reaching our area. Will start carrying just a very
small 20% chance of Nebraska storms making it into our
northwestern zones during overnight periods mainly Tuesday night
and beyond. The strongest upper trough with the best chance to
reach our forecast area and beat the upper ridge back is
currently slated to reach us around Saturday night (July 4th) or
Sunday. That`s still a long way off and thus plenty of timing
and strength uncertainty with that possible system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions and breezy southerly winds are expected through
the period. Winds may drop to around 10-15 kt sustained at
times tonight with occasional higher gusts before resuming
persistent gustiness of 25-35 kt on Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT Thursday night for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until midnight CDT Thursday night for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Macko
LONG TERM...Macko
AVIATION...McClure