St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

831
FXUS63 KEAX 311153
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures expected
  the next 7 days with no hazardous weather expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A very tranquil weather pattern is expected to end the year and ring
in the first week of 2026. Dry conditions with near to above normal
temperatures are expected through this forecast period. An above
normal day will finish out 2025 as mid-level height rises and WSW
surface flow will aid in highs rising into the lower 40s to lower
50s. Tonight, a upper level trough will dig through the Great Lakes
region forcing a back door cold front through the area. Modest cold
air advection behind the front tonight will drop lows back into the
upper teens to upper 20s. Thursday, northwest flow aloft will relax
as the upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal. However, weak mixing
will keep high temperatures near seasonal normal in the low to mid
30s (north) to the low to mid 40s (south). Quasi-zonal flow aloft
continues into Friday keeping highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Saturday, upper level ridging over the central Rockies will shift
eastward into the eastern Rockies providing height rise over the
local area however, with surface high pressure over the area, weak
mixing will hold highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sunday the upper
level ridge will slide east over the region. This couples with
modest WAA at the surface will drive highs into the mid 40s to mid
50s. Monday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area
with continued modest WAA at the surface pushing highs into the 50s
to lower 60s. Monday night into Tuesday a upper level shortwave will
move from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will
force a dry cold frontal passage through the CWA however, highs will
still remain above normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the bulk of the TAF pd with sct-bkn
high clouds prevailing. Winds to begin the TAF pd with be lgt
and vrb but will increase to 5-10kts out of he SW around
16Z-17Z. A cold front will pass thru the terminals btn 03Z-05Z
veering winds to the north btn 5-10kts. Some models are
indicating the chc for MVFR cigs to mov into teh TAF sites late
in the pd behind the cold front however, conf is too low at this
time for inclusion in the TAF.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73