St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS63 KEAX 311813 CCA
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
113 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong to severe storms may develop along and south of I-70 later
  tonight. The strongest storms can produce large hail (2 to 3.5
  inches), damaging winds, and an isolated tornado is possible in
  the vicinity of and south/southeast of the Kansas City metro.

*Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue through Monday
 morning.

*Hot and humid conditions barge in this afternoon and linger
 until midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Short-term guidance has continued to struggle to resolve convection
off to the west this evening, leading to ample uncertainty regarding
how the forecast will evolve over the next 24 hours. Within the
several hours, storms across eastern Kansas have fallen comfortably
below severe limits, and this is expected to remain an appropriate
descriptor for most as these storms move through the area overnight.
An isolated severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out due to
lingering elevated instability, but the primary threat with
overnight convection will be locally heavy rainfall. Mean winds
between 15-20 kts, PWATs near or in excess of 1.6", and model QPF
output approaching FFG has reinforced flooding concerns as we head
into the overnight hours tonight.

The remainder of Sunday is murky at best. By mid/late afternoon, a
high CAPE environment is expected to develop. Coupled with improved
0-6 km bulk shear, conditions do look to be conducive for organized
storm development and maintenance. How this environment is realized
remains the question. There are several scenarios that could unfold,
whether it be just one or potentially a combination of multiple.
First, behind the overnight band of showers/storms, some CAMs depict
an additional complex of storms moving into northeastern MO,
continuing southeastward through the morning and early afternoon
hours. As it does so, it could encounter the area of increased
instability and shear which may open the door for more organized
updrafts within the cluster. Another solution for late morning/early
afternoon excludes this complex of storms entirely, instead opting
for convective initiation near a weak surface warm front allowing
for some erosion of the cap and promoting initiation by mid-
afternoon along the I-70 corridor. A third scenario involves storms
forming right along the MO/KS border in the evening. That all said,
confidence in any one scenario is low with substantial uncertainty
surrounding the mode(s) of ascent, which could be anything from the
previously mentioned warm front to a outflow boundary from overnight
convection or even a subtle shortwave...none of which seem to be
particularly well highlighted in the high-resolution guidance.
Still, there is a clear, but very conditional, threat for severe
weather on Sunday. If storms are able to fire, then all hazards
would be on the table.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward of the TAF
sites and the forecast area with VFR conditions. Conditions are
expected to go to MVFR at all the TAF sites between 03z-07z as
strong and severe storms are expected to develop along a
boundary from will continue along and south of I-70 later
tonight including the KC metro vicinity. There is a potential
for large hail (2 to 3.5 inches), damaging winds and an isolated
tornado may be possible. Between 03z and 04z there is some
uncertainty in which the line will develop in far eastern KS so have
placed prob30 for the TAF time period but by 05z-07 should expect
TSRA impacts along with gusty winds as confidence continues to
increase on the development of thunderstorms which TEMPO is expected.
Expecting things to improve from MVFR to VFR after 14z tomorrow.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko/WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX