St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS63 KEAX 020447
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected to continue through the
  end of the week, likely through early next week.

    - Heat advisory expanded to the entire area through Friday
    - Will likely need to be extended into or through the weekend
    - Temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100
    - Heat index values as high as 105

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

With an expansive upper ridge occupying the southeastern third of
the country, well above normal temperatures continue to be the
primary concern through the entire forecast. The core of this upper
ridge will shift east over the next couple of days, which may lead
to a degree or two cooler high temperatures. This is still 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. So overall, little, if
any, relief to the heat is expected through the end of the week,
and quite possibly through the start of next week as well. The
heat advisory will likely need to be extended in time but there
is some uncertainty about the locations. Given that is still day
5 of the forecast, will hold off for now and continue to
message the heat through the DSS packet. Looking at ensemble
guidance and 500mb clusters, the pattern is overall little
changed as the upper ridge builds back into and expands across
the middle of the country. By days 6 and 7 (Sunday and Monday),
a few of the ensembles (generally 5-10%) are showing some easing
of the ridging in the middle of the country with some negative
differences appearing between those clusters relative to the
ensemble mean. This is still very unlikely to occur but what`s a
prolonged heat wave without some hope that it will end...
eventually.

Regarding precipitation chances, it`s unlikely we`ll see much of
anything through the end of the week. By Sunday, there is at least a
small chance in our northeastern zones as the ridge is in the
process of expanding across the middle of the country again. That
said, the prevailing theme remains hot with little, if any,
precipitation through the entire forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. There will be light
winds out of the south until mid-morning Tuesday when winds and
marginal gusts will pick up and continue until around sunset
when gusts will die off and wind speeds will decrease. A
scattered cumulus deck will develop during peak heating south of
the MO River.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Air Quality Alert from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
     MOZ028>030-037-043.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
     Air Quality Alert from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...IPC