St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

172
FXUS63 KEAX 062337
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry with highs around 90 through Wednesday.

- Hotter air and storm chances return Wednesday night through
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall a fairly nice summer day today with a few chance for
some isolated showers or storms in Missouri south of I-70. The
entire airmass is uncapped and well mixed which favors air mass
thunderstorms, but moisture is limited. North of I-70
saturation is less than it is farther south which will keep this
area dry. South of I-70 we more moisture and have seen some
isolated showers and storms this afternoon and this will
continue into the evening ending once peak heating has passed.
Weak winds through much of atmosphere will keep winds light even
with the good mixing. This also means little shear and little
chance for strong storms even where CI occurs. Overall similar
setup tomorrow (maybe a little drier), with just a little
warmer temperatures with more locations approaching 90.

Wednesday will see a continuation of the slow warming trend with
widespread temperatures reaching into the lower 90s. The upper
high over the southwest CONUS looks to move out allowing for a
more unsettled pattern to move in Wednesday night and stay with
us for to the end of the week. This shows multiple chances for
shortwaves until a new ridge looks to build in next weekend.
Rain chances look best to the north across Nebraska and Iowa
Wednesday night into Thursday, but this differs among ensemble
systems. The ENS brings more of the QPF south over Kansas and
Missouri with the GEFS keeping it more to the north. Thursday
night into Friday has more widespread agreement in QPF between
the ensemble systems and their members. This is all reflected
fairly well in NBM PoPs with lower PoPs focused north on
Thursday morning and more widespread PoPs later Thursday into
Friday. The CSU ML probabilities still show some low chances for
severe weather across Kansas and Missouri Thursday and Friday.
We look to have many of the ingredients for storms Thursday and
Friday, but the shear profile still looks uncertain and until
that is has more agreement it will be hard to have confidence in
strong to severe storms.

A ridge looks to build into the central CONUS next weekend into
next week. This will bring the active period to an end. In
addition this could also be the return of another longer
duration period of extreme heat. This is also reflected in the
CPC day 8-14 hazard outlook where extreme heat is shown across
Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A very quiet TAF period is anticipated across the area. Skies
have largely cleared with loss of peak heating / dissipating CU
field, and winds too have generally eased to around 5 kts or
less across the area. Winds may waffle between NE to SE through
the period, but largely around 5kts with surface high pressure
influence in place. Diurnal CU too anticipated again Tuesday,
but based around / above 5kft.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carletta
AVIATION...Curtis