St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

973
FXUS63 KEAX 060836
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another frost/freeze likely for northern Missouri tonight into
  Tuesday morning

* Chances (>70%-90%) for rain turning to snow Monday night into
  early Tuesday morning over northern Missouri and into Iowa.
  - A narrow band of heavier accumulating snow possible

* Active pattern with warmer temperatures and multiple
  opportunities for precipitation...Wednesday night through the
  weekend. The severe threat is low but flooding may be
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Early this morning, a backdoor cold front has just begun sinking
into the forecast area. This front will slowly sink south through
the forecast area this morning stalling near the southern CWA. This
will create a large temperature spread across the area today with
highs in the mid 50s across the northern CWA to the mid to upper 60s
across the southern CWA. A tricky forecast awaits for tonight as a
narrow but strong frontogenetically forced band of showers will
enter the northern CWA. Showers will originally begin as rain
however, wetbulbing is expected to occur allowing rain to
transition to snow. The main questions are: how much are warm
surface temperatures and air temperatures going to limit
accumulations? And, will snow rates be strong enough to overcome
warm surface temperatures?  The best chance to see 1 to 2" of snow
will be along and north of a line from Grant City to Kirksville with
a sharp delineation of lesser amounts just south of that line. Lows
tonight will range is the 30s with freeze conditions possible north
of Highway 36. This band of precipitation will weaken by tomorrow
afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift north across the area
Tuesday providing another day of a large temperatures spread across
the area. Temperatures north of the warm front across northern
Missouri, where clouds and perhaps snow cover will hold highs in the
mid to upper 40s. However, highs across the southwestern CWA, where
WAA will be occurring, will rise into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Tuesday night into Wednesday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop
with strong WAA allowing highs to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Wednesday. Wednesday into Wednesday night a closed upper level
trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the northern
Plains. This will force an attendant cold front into the area
Wednesday night. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the forecast area. Thursday the upper level trough
will shift northeast into southeastern Canadian. This will leave the
surface front stalled across the area. Several weak upper level
shortwaves on quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue thunderstorm
chances in the area Thursday into Friday with the surface boundary
as the focus. Friday night into Saturday a upper level trough will
move into the California coast and dig into the southwestern CONUS.
In response, southwesterly flow aloft will build over the region.
Several lead shortwave ejecting out ahead of the main trough over
the southwesterly CONUS will keep the pattern active next weekend with
the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
While the severe potential for severe weather during this timeframe
appears low at this time, total rainfall amounts of 2 to locally 4
inches of precipitation may cause minor areal and river flooding.
Highs Wednesday through Friday will generally be in the mid 60s to
mid 70s range with highs rising into the 70s next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

High pressure will keep conditions clear through the overnight
hours. Increasing high-level clouds expected by late Monday
afternoon. Ceilings will start to develop later Monday evening.
Rain/Snow mix expected in northern Missouri, but may not reach
STJ or KC Metro terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Krull