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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 5:17 pm CST Mar 5, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm.  Patchy fog between 11pm and 5am. Low around 51. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and
Patchy Fog
Friday

Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm.  Cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.  Low around 36. South wind 13 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers then
Chance
Showers
Saturday

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Mostly Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 67.
Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 47.
Clear

Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Partly Cloudy

Lo 51 °F Hi 72 °F Lo 36 °F Hi 54 °F Lo 35 °F Hi 67 °F Lo 47 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 54 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Patchy fog between 11pm and 5am. Low around 51. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Friday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Low around 36. South wind 13 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph after midnight.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 67.
Sunday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 47.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Tuesday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 59.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
621
FXUS63 KEAX 060010
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  starting late Thursday night through Friday night.

- Strong to isolated severe storms are possible Thursday night
  mainly across far NW MO.

- Higher chances for strong to severe storms is expected
  starting Friday late afternoon and evening into the overnight.
  All severe hazards are possible including damaging winds,
  large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The latest surface analysis depicts a warm from draped across
the southern half of Missouri. Over the next several hours, this
boundary will shift northward as a low-level jet is expected to
intensify ahead of mid/upper-level longwave. A broad area of ascent
will encourage convective initiation late tonight across portions of
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Storms that develop
are forecast to quickly grow upscale with the resultant MCS tracking
northeastward into Iowa. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail are
possible hazards with these storms.

Before sunrise Friday, the weakening remnants of storms from Texas
and Oklahoma will attempt to move into the region. CAMs have
struggled to latch on to a consensus regarding whether or not these
decaying storms will make it to the CWA and, if they do manage to
survive the journey, how long they will last. These storms are
unlikely to be impactful on their own, however, they carry great
implications for Friday afternoon and evening`s severe threat. A
longer duration morning precipitation event could significantly
hinder the atmosphere`s ability to recover for late afternoon/early
evening convection. Although instability and shear parameters in the
warm sector continue to be worrisome, confidence is decreasing that
the environment will be able to successfully overcome the widespread
cloud cover earlier in the day in order to produce discrete
convection late Friday afternoon and early evening. CAMs also appear
to struggle with how the event will play out; some still attempt to
initiate discrete cells while others do not. Ultimately, the Friday
afternoon/evening threat is highly conditional on how the morning
plays out tomorrow. If we see an early end to precipitation and are
able to break through layered cloud cover, the potential for
discrete supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes will increase. Unfortunately, this situation continues
to be one that could easily over or underperform depending on the
circumstances tomorrow morning.

Confidence is higher regarding a nocturnal push of convection
associated with the cold front, however, the intensity of this line
would be dependent on how the early portions of the day play out.
Widespread ascent is expected along the frontal boundary and will
allow for rapid upscale growth into a QLCS. This line could have
upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 knots of deep layer shear, over
800 J/kg of DCAPE, 350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km helicity at its dispersal,
which could allow for widespread damaging winds and embedded
mesovorticies within the line. Should there be discrete convection
in the hours preceding the cold front, the QLCS would likely be on
the weaker side (barring any outflow boundaries left by supercells
that the QLCS could interact with). Should no discrete convection
occur ahead of the line, the QLCS should be able to tap into a more
supportive environment overall.

By Saturday morning, storms are expected to exit the area. Cooler
air advecting in behind the front will lead to a more seasonable day
with highs in the low to mid 50s. Surface high pressure will build
into the area Saturday night dropping lows back into the 30s. The
surface ridge of high pressure will slide south and east of the area
on Sunday with WAA developing in its wake. This will return high
temperatures well above normal in the mid to upper 60s. Strong WAA
will continue Sunday night into Monday with highs rising into the
70s on Monday. Monday into Monday night a upper level shortwave
trough will move through the Upper Midwest into northern Great
Lakes. This will push a weak backdoor cold front into the area
Monday night. This front will be the focus for nocturnal convection
Monday night into Tuesday morning as a lead upper level shortwave
ejects out from a upper level closed low trough over the Desert
Southwest. As it does, a LLJ develops and noses into the area
providing the chance for elevated convection. The LLJ remains
focused on the area as the upper level trough moves into the
southern Plains on Tuesday. This is expected to continue storm
chances across the CWA Tuesday. With the area in the warm sector
there is the chance for strong to severe storms particularly for
areas south of the Missouri River however, the better potential for
severe weather looks to be south of the forecast area where the
better forcing resides. Models continue to slow the eastward
progression of the closed low upper trough on Wednesday as it slowly
moves through the Red River Valley. This will continue storm chances
on Wednesday with the best chance for storms again across the
southern CWA. Highs Tuesday in the warm sector will be in the mid to
upper 70s. With storms around on Wednesday, highs will be cooler in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently MVFR conditions with SE winds around 10 knots at the
terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to
develop by late this evening and move into far NE KS and NW
Missouri, likely impacting STJ between roughly 4z and 7z, with
impacts to the KC metro terminals more uncertain as they may be
too far south. Another round of showers and storms may impact
the terminals between 11z and 15z Friday morning. Winds turn
southerly and increase by around 11z Friday, with gusts up to
30 knots beginning by 15z and continuing through Friday
afternoon. Another round of storms will be possible toward the
very end of the TAF period, but may hold off until after 00z
Saturday. MVFR CIGs are anticipated to generally continue
through the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko/73
AVIATION...BMW
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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