St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS63 KEAX 181911
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
211 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperature trend slightly above normal Monday, then well above
  normal through the weekend.

- Dry conditions expected through the week with low
  probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Broad upper-level ridging, with a surface high to our east, will
allow for temperatures to climb to slightly above normal values
Monday. Upper-level ridging becomes more amplified by the middle of
the week with increasing southerly flow helping temperatures
warm back to well above normal levels for this time of year. For
reference, normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to
start the week, and fall into the lower to middle 60s by the
weekend. With highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s
Monday, we`ll be a few degrees above normal. But as the upper
ridging amplifies mid-late week, we`ll see highs climb into the
upper 70s to lower 80s. So we should easily be 10-15 degrees
above normal and approaching 20 degrees above normal by late
this week and into the weekend.

With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the
country, the forecast remains dry through the week. It`s not
until the weekend, when the ridge axis may shift sufficiently
far enough east that some precipitation chances start to
encroach on the area. Models show a front pushing into
northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday.
That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before
washing out and lifting northward again. There is some
uncertainty in this though. About 45% of 500mb clusters show the
ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri. The remaining clusters
are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by
late in the week to the weekend. Stronger ridging that is
further west would inhibit precipitation chances. Weaker ridging
or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to
shift further east.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Wind gusts of
20-25 kts will diminish this evening with southerly winds
persisting through the forecast. Generally clear skies are
expected through the overnight with increasing high-level clouds
late tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB