St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS63 KEAX 160537
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will sweep through the region on Friday, bringing
  gusty northwest winds and a chance of scattered flurries and
  snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Very little or
  accumulation is expected along with no travel impacts.

- Much colder temperatures are forecast on Saturday, with high
  temperatures in the teens and 20s. Overnight low temperatures
  Sunday morning will dip into the single digits with wind
  chill values of 0 to -10 degrees.

- Dry weather with slowly moderating temperatures is forecast
  Sunday into the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

As H5 ridging over the West Coast elongates poleward, Arctic air
from the Hudson Bay region of Canada will become dislodged and
and advance southward into the region on Friday. The associated
surface cold front will move through the area Friday morning
and afternoon. Post-frontal gradient winds will increase and
become breezy from the NW. The 12z HREF guidance shows a 50-90%
of wind gusts over 30 mph and a 20-60% of gusts over 35 mph.
Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 30s in the
morning and early afternoon, but will start to fall into the 20s
by late afternoon and evening.

Have upped the chances for flurries and snow showers on Friday
afternoon, as an H5 vorticity max moves through area. Mid-level
lapse rates will be steep, and most CAM guidance does show
about 25-50 J/kg of MUCAPE present. This will allow for
flurries and snow showers to develop. The limiting factor for
any potential snow squalls will be low-level dry air below the
850 mb level, so a good bit snow that does develop will
evaporate before reaching the ground, resulting in mainly ISO-
SCT snow shower coverage. Cannot rule out a trace of snow in
some isolated locations in north- central MO, but for the great
majority of the area, no accumulation will occur. Similarly, the
dry air will limit snowfall rates, which will prevent travel
impacts from developing in locations that do see sticking snow.

Snow shower and flurry chances will wind down Friday night as
the forcing wanes, setting the stage for a very chilly Saturday.
As the Arctic air settles over the region, temperatures at 850
mb will fall to around -20C on Saturday, which is around the 1st
to 5th percentiles. This will yield high temperatures about
10-15 degrees below normal, in the upper 10s to upper 20s from
north to south. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will fall
into the single digits with wind chill values of 0 to -10
degrees forecast during the morning hours.

The deep troughing over the central CONUS will begin to shift to
the east of the region on Sunday, and temperatures will begin to
moderate a bit, as an mid-level baroclinic zone sets up over
the area. However, it will not be a linear warming trend, as
additional lobes of Arctic air brush against the forecast area.
This will result in high temperatures near normal January
values on Sunday, but falling back into the 20s on Monday/MLK
Jr. Day before rebounding again back to normal values for the
middle of next week. As the overall synoptic pattern remains
dry/anticyclonic, no precipitation chances are expected through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Main concerns within the TAF period will be the increasing/gusty
NW winds as well as the potential for SHSN by around/after 18z.
Frontal boundary will pass all TAF sites within the first few
hours of this TAF period, turning winds out of the NW. The
stronger sustained and gusts lag a bit behind, so have stepped
up winds through the overnight/morning and further with
increased daytime mixing. By around/after 18z, convective SHSN
remains expected to begin to move into/through the wider area.
Confidence in how much/long any SHSN may affect a TAF site
remains limited, but enough to warrant PROB30 entries across the
sites. Kept those mentions to MVFR, but there will be the
possibility of brief IFR if any of the stronger SHSN areas
traverse a TAF site.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Curtis