St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

016
FXUS63 KEAX 131726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1126 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend
  into next week.

- Widespread rain likely late Friday night into Saturday
  evening. Totals over 1" possible especially along and south of
  the Interstate 70 corridor (50-70%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today an upper level trough will dig from the western Rockies into
the the central and southern Rockies. In response to this feature,
upstream ridging will build over the area. This will allow
temperatures to rise even further above normal will highs in the
upper 50s to upper 60s. Tonight a lead shortwave ejecting out ahead
of the main upper level trough, which will move into the western
High Plains to southern Rockies, will bring the chance for showers
to the area. Rain showers will continue through the day Saturday and
into Saturday night as the upper level trough moves through the
central and southern Plains into the local area. PWAT values will
range between 1.00"-1.20" which is in the 99th percentile for
February. Consequently, precipitation amounts of 1.00" to 1.75" are
forecast for areas south of I-70 with lesser amounts as you move
north of I-70. Highs Saturday, despite the cloud cover and rain will
still remain above normal in the low to mid 50s. Surface high
pressure will move back into the area on Sunday drying conditions
out. Aloft, upper level ridging will build into the Plains states in
response to another upper level trough looking to move onshore over
the west coast on Sunday. This will provide high rises across the
local area aiding in highs rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Well above normal temperatures (15-25 degrees above) with dry
conditions are expected through midweek. Broad, low amplitude, upper
level ridging is expected over much of the central CONUS Monday and
Tuesday. This will allow highs to rise into the 60s on Monday.
Increased WAA on Tuesday will drive highs into the mid 60s to lower
70s. By Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough over
the west coast will be moving through the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. The general model trend has been to take this feature
further north keeping the local area dry however the NBM is still
holding onto 15-25% precip chances for areas north of the Missouri
River Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Pacific front will move
through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday however, strong
downslope westerly flow behind the front will still keep highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. The next chance for precipitation to move
into the area looks to occur on Thursday as a upper level shortwave
ejects out from the central Rockies into the central Plains. This is
expected to cool temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s which is
still 10-15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through
this afternoon and evening. Looking at incoming weather tomorrow
morning, with the primary impacts to terminals being lowering
ceilings/visibility to IFR conditions from the south to the
north. Else, variable winds prevailing out of the E/SE through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SPG