St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

496
FXUS63 KEAX 081119
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and breezy conditions today before rain moves in tonight,
  kicking off an active weather pattern through the weekend and
  into early next week.

* Multiple rounds of showers and storms late week into the
  weekend. A few strong storms are possible tomorrow night but
  the severe threat remains low, but consecutive days of rain
  could lead to river/areal flood concerns.

* Storms possible again Sunday into the beginning of next week. Some
  storms could be severe, but uncertainty is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Early this morning, a warm front is lifting north through the
forecast area. This will allow strong WAA to develop over the area
today with winds out of the south gusting to 30-40mph. This will
drive highs into the low to mid 70s today. Today into tonight a
upper level trough will move from the far northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This will force a weak cold front into the area
tonight. While moisture is limited a few showers and isolated storms
(20-40%) will be possible with the best chance across northern
Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Thursday quasi-zonal upper level
flow will reside across the central CONUS. Weak shortwaves in the
flow may develop a few showers in the vicinity of the stalled front
across northern Missouri/northeast Kansas during the day. However,
better chances (70-90+%) for showers and thunderstorms will exist
during the evening into tomorrow night as a 40-50kt southerly
nocturnal LLJ develops and noses into the area. Better chances will
again reside across northern Missouri in the vicinity of the now
stalled frontal boundary. A few strong storms capable of small hail
and gusty winds will be possible along and north of the front
however, instability will be modest with 500-1000J/Kg of MUCAPE
available. Showers and storms will continue into Friday and Friday
night as the flow aloft remains quasi-zonal with continued weak
shortwave traversing the region. The stationary surface front will
continue to reside across the area which will be the focus for
shower and thunderstorm development. Highs Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to upper 70s however showers and cloud cover will create
cooler conditions on Friday with highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Friday night into Saturday the upper level pattern begins to shift
in response to a upper level trough digging from the California
coast into the central Rockies. Despite the pattern shift conditions
will remain active as several lead shortwaves eject out ahead of the
upper level trough on Saturday as the stationary front lifts back
north across the forecast area. Warm air advection showers and
storms continue into Saturday night as the upper level trough moves
from the eastern Rockies into the Central Plains Saturday night into
Sunday. Sunday, warm air advection will continue across the area
with a few showers possible however, the area appears to be
effectively capped which will limit convective potential. Monday in
previous model runs contained the best chance for severe potential
however, current model runs are much weaker with the upper level
trough and associated cold front that was progged to bring storms to
the area consequently confidence in this scenario remains low until
models can resolve the evolution of this feature. Highs this weekend
will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s before warming into the upper
70s and lower 80s by Monday.
.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn high clouds
expected thru the pd. The main concern for aviators will be the
gusty winds. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south
btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts and will incr aft 14Z-15Z to
20-25kts with gusts 30-35kts. Winds will subside aft 01Z dmshg
to 10-15kts contg to remain out of the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73