St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS63 KEAX 300732
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
232 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today,
  mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River.

- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.

- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday
  night. There is some potential for strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper
ridging to nearly zonal flow prevailing over the middle of the
country. In the middle and lower levels, high pressure is centered
over the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. This is leading to easterly
to southeasterly flow at the surface and southerly to southwesterly
flow in the mid-levels. This flow regime is leading to modest
moisture advection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Isentropic ascent, noted from 295K to 300K, was leading to scattered
to widespread showers and storms from northeastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri, with decreasing coverage from northern into
northeastern Missouri. Forecast soundings across northern Missouri
show steep lapse rates above an inversion with a nearly saturated
profile below that inversion. This leads to fairly robust elevated
instability, for late October, with 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated
instability. With the strongest mid and upper-level winds pushed
north of the region, shear is relatively weak, and that is the
main limiting factor preventing stronger convection across
northeastern Kansas through northern Missouri. That said, with
the ascent noted from 295K to 300K, instability available, and
ahead of shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the
Southern Plains, we should see scattered to widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity today for areas along and north of the
Missouri river.

For Saturday, ascent looks weaker/less focused, leading to lower
chances for precipitation overall, despite what looks like thick
cloud cover. Coverage of precipitation looks more isolated to
scattered in this pattern. Transient shortwave ridging builds into
the area Sunday, limiting precipitation chances. That shortwave
ridging is in response to a deepening trough moving east from the
Rockies. Strong southerly/southwesterly low to mid-level flow
develops leading to very strong moisture transport into the region.
This leads to very anomalously high precipitable water values
that are near or at the max percentiles in the NAEFS
climatology. Instability looks weak overall but given the strong
kinematics, we`ll need to watch for the potential for
strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE
environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for
Monday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of this early week system, temperatures fall back to
near-normal levels, in the lower 60s for much of the area, for
middle to later part of next week. The shortwave associated with the
early week precipitation chances may be slow to depart the area.
Deterministic models show the upper-low getting cutoff and
meandering through the region. There`s some indication of this in
the ensemble 500mb clusters, though they never show the system
cutting off. Rather, just slow eastward eastward progression and
anomalously low 500mb heights through the lower Mississippi
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The main issue over the next 24-hours is thunderstorm chances.
It continues to look like the best chances will be across
northeastern KS and northwestern/northern MO, primarily
affecting the STJ terminal overnight. Have maintained the PROB30
groups for all sites, with timing adjusted for latest trends in
radar and model guidance. If storms do impact a terminal, brief
visibility and ceiling reductions can be expected. Overall,
winds look light from the east, becoming southeasterly through
the day Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB