St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS63 KEAX 101657
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until at least Wednesday
  evening for central Missouri.

* Overnight storm chances: There is a 10-30% chance of overnight
  showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest likelihood
  across northeast KS into northern Missouri.

* Rain chances increase late week as a stationary boundary
  across central Iowa sags south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Broad upper ridge remains across the southern US. Closer to the
surface, a 30-40 knot low level jet remains from eastern TX into
central Indiana.  This low level jet has prevented the atmosphere
from cooling substantially, and fueled storms across the
region. These storms are handled relatively poorly by various
models, but have begun to be recognized by the HRRR/RAP over the
last few hours. Expect the threat elevated convection to remain
through the mid morning hours but expect an overall weakening
trend as the morning goes on. There is a shortwave across south
central Nebraska as of 08Z, and with ample mid level moisture,
could see a renewed threat of elevated showers/thunderstorms
across northern Missouri mid-day. With the expected cloud cover
and showers, expect high temperatures to be moderated a bit.
Considered a heat advisory along and south of I-70 (north of the
excessive heat warning), but with impacts of cloud cover and
showers, opted to just stick with the excessive heat warning
across central MO.

CAMs suggest convection redeveloping across the High Plains late
this afternoon, pushing east/southeast tonight on the leading edge
of the thermal ridge. With this activity once again building
into a strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet, could see these
storms last longer than CAMs suggest leading to another night of
potential scattered storms.

Clearing skies through the day is once again expected to lead to
another mild day with highs in the mid and upper 90s with heat
indices of 105-110 F degrees. Will need to once again consider a
heat advisory for Tuesday depending on potential clearing.

Stationary front across Central Iowa along I-80 may try to work
south as low pressure develops in western KS and gradually pushes
east.  South of the front, warm and humid conditions are expected to
continue, so location of the front will be key.  Low level jet south
of the boundary will likely fuel nocturnal thunderstorms on the
north side of boundary Wednesday night. Additional ridge riding
shortwaves are expected through the late week into the weekend
leading for additional periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR through the end of the period. High clouds, generally FEW to
SCT, until around sunset after which more clearing is expected.
High clouds building back in during the early morning hours.
Otherwise, south-southwesterly winds with occasional gusts up to
20-25 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Macko