St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXUS63 KEAX 081748
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1148 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog/frost this morning.

- Mild and dry conditions expected through Wednesday.

- Cooler conditions expected Thursday - Saturday with north-
northwest flow prevailing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Broad high pressure continues to dominate the weather front across
the lower 48 leading to tranquil weather conditions.  Good radiative
conditions has allows patchy fog to develop generally confined to
low lying areas. Because the fog is expected to remain patchy, have
not considered a dense fog advisory. Any fog is expected to burn off
within a few hours of sunrise. A weak cold front associated with a
low pressure system over Ontario is expected to approach from the
north today.  A few high clouds may filter into northern Missouri
this morning, but as they continue to push southeast in northwest
flow they encounter more dry air limiting cloud cover today. As
mixing increases today, westerly-northwesterly winds will mix-down
from aloft effectively washing out the boundary.  With 925 hpa
temperatures nearly 10 degrees C warmer than yesterday and mostly
clear skies, expect a larger diurnal curve today with high
temperatures in the 60s F.

Surface ridge reorients itself over the Tennessee River Valley
tonight into Monday leading to southwest flow across the region
leading to a gradual warming trend Monday. Another weak cold front
approaches from the north on Tuesday leading to potential slight
cooling across northern Missouri.

A series of waves building southeast attempt to phase into a
deepening trough mid-week.  Depending on how quickly this occurs,
portions of central Missouri may see the potential for rain showers
along a cold front building south.  Cooler conditions follow late
week with the potential for more frost/freeze conditions Friday and
Saturday mornings.  Temperatures trend back above seasonal norms
late next weekend as trough along the east coast shifts east and
upper level ridge builds into the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR and light westerly to northwesterly winds will persist through
the afternoon at all terminals. Monday morning, calm winds and clear
skies will be ideal for widespread radiational FG. Expect VIS to
begin deteriorating after 5-6Z, bottoming out in IFR after 12Z, then
improving after sunrise. It`s possible that VIS falls below 2SM (50-
70% chance < 2SM), but opted to hold off for now on lower VIS due to
some uncertainty regarding low temperatures, which will affect FG
density. Southerly winds pick back up Monday after sunrise as
surface temperatures warm.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bjork/BT
AVIATION...Shaw/Krull