St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

987
FXUS63 KEAX 051911
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
211 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
  Severe chances are low.

- Dry and less humid to start the week. Thunderstorms return to
  the forecast later Wednesday and Thursday along with warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Early morning fog dissipated quickly within a few hours of sunrise.
With the fog cleared, the rest of the morning and early afternoon
have been mostly sunny with daytime cumulus developing across the
area. Conditions have been more pleasant than the last week with
highs in the mid 80s and lower humidity. Meanwhile a weak shortwave
across Iowa this morning has rotated south into northern
Missouri. An associated area of clouds is easy to identify on
satellite and identify the location of the wave. There is very
little shear in place today, but around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
available. As the weak wave continues to drop across the area it
will provide just enough forcing for scattered thunderstorms to
develop. These will move south across the area into the evening
before dissipating after sunset. With a lack of shear and weak
forcing the severe threat is quite low. Patchy fog is possible
again overnight with light winds and plenty of low level
moisture in place.

Ridging builds back into Missouri Monday and Tuesday, keeping the
area dry and nudging temperatures into the mid to upper 80s.
Dewpoints are 10+ degrees lower than they were last week, keeping
the heat index more manageable in the low 90s to start the week. By
Wednesday a developing trough across the western US will deepen and
move into the midwest. This is currently set to push across Missouri
late Wednesday and on Thursday, bringing the next opportunity for
thunderstorms to the state. This will also pull a plume of moisture
across the area. The precipitation may put a damper on
temperatures, but convection holds off enough for daytime
heating through the afternoon the apparent temperatures could
again exceed 100 in a few locations. Of course this is still
several days out and both temperatures and convection will be
refined.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered daytime cumulus is developing across the area this
afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon into the early evening, however these are expected to
remain east of the TAF sites. Fog may develop again early
Sunday, however confidence in occurrence is low at this time
and have not included in TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff