St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXUS63 KEAX 282327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of light snow will bring a dusting up to a half inch of
  snow to much of the area this afternoon/early evening.

- Windy conditions (35-45 mph wind gusts) are continue into
  Monday morning. Wind chill values ranging from near zero to
  fifteen below zero are expected tonight into Monday morning.

- Temperatures rebound going into Tuesday with relatively mild,
  dry weather expected to continue through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

A cold front moved trough our area associated with a dynamic
low pressure system moving across the Northern Plains. As it has
deepened, a strong pressure gradient has developed on the back
side of the low generating strong north-northwesterly winds
which have pushed into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Winds are gusting 35 to 50 mph this afternoon. In addition, a
band of snow has set up along the leading edge of the upper-
level PV anomaly which has pushed into far northwest Missouri
this afternoon. This band of snow will continue eastward across
our area, generally only dropping a dusting to a half-inch of
snow. Biggest impact from this band will be reduced visibility
only enhanced by strong background winds. In the heaviest of the
band, expect visibility to drop down to around a mile or less.
Snow should exit to the east by 00Z, with clearing skies this
evening. Winds, however, will continue to gust 35 to 45 mph
overnight tonight into early Monday when the pressure gradient
will finally start to relax.

Monday will be off to a very cool start with wind chill values
dropping below zero across most of our area, getting as cold as
-10 to -15 toward the Iowa state line. A few weather stations
may briefly touch -15 around sunrise, but likely won`t stay cold
long enough or be widespread enough to need a Cold Weather
Advisory. As winds relax through the day temperatures will warm
into the 20s by Monday afternoon.

An arctic High slides south over the Central Plains Monday
night, bringing a wind shift early Tuesday back to
southwesterly winds as the anticyclonic circulation drops to our
south. This combined with building 500-mb heights will lead to
rebounding temperatures on Tuesday warming back up into the
upper 30s to low 40s by Tuesday afternoon.

Going into the latter half of the week this week, the ridge over
the western CONUS only serves to continue to expand eastward
helping to keep weather generally quiet. Thursday we see a weak
clipper shortwave ride down along the northwesterly flow
bringing a back-door cold front down out of Iowa into northern
Missouri. This will cool afternoon highs back down into the 30s
across areas along and north of I-70, while areas south stay
mainly south of the front and warm again into the low-to-mid
40s.

Going into the weekend we see a shortwave develop a surface low
over north Texas and Oklahoma. Models have this system tracking
south across Arkansas, with some variability in the exact track.
As of now the forecast remains dry across our area through the
weekend, but if this system shifts any farther north we could
see PoPs be introduced to our far southern counties Friday
night. Another subtle height rise will help to push temperatures
back up going into the weekend. Conditions remain dry and
temperatures relatively mild with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Snow/snow showers have translated east of the TAF sites at this
point, leaving gusty NW winds and stratus potential as concerns
within the current TAF period. NW winds, while a bit weaker in
magnitude than earlier today, will remain gusty through much of
the period with the potential for regular gusts into the upper
20s if not low 30s kts through the overnight before gradually
easing after 12z. As the parent system too gradually shifts away
from the area, wrap around stratus may pose a risk for the TAF
sites around/after 06z, especially for the more northerly
sites. For the time being, have gone with hints of (SCT030 or
BKN035) with the area looking to be on the southern edge of the
shield via current guidance. Will monitor stratus extent and
make any necessary adjustments.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Curtis