St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS63 KEAX 240638
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
138 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still looking like another active period setting up for
  Thursday into Friday with showers and storms. Flooding is
  possible with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

- Increasing heat and humidity with little to no rain chances
  (20% or less) this weekend into next week. Heat indices rise
  to 100 to 110 Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Pattern early this morning looks similar to 24 hours ago, with
storms over western NE/KS slowly building eastward. Difference today
is there is a pool of moisture now across eastern KS and SW MO. GOES
Sounder data samples this airmass has a precipitable water of 1.5-
1.6 inches. Surface air is muggier too, with dewpoints in the mid
60s in our southwest forecast area. In this muggier airmass we
expect a more widespread layer of low stratus to develop by daybreak
and this could linger well into the day.

We also cannot rule out some sprinkles/light rain showers developing
in our muggy airmass, as RAP/NAM time heights show some lift to
about 700 mb through the morning hours. For the afternoon, those
same models show some elevated instability which may spark off
isolated to widely scattered storms as well along and south of the I-
70 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Model evidence continues to mount in a wet solution across the
region as a potent shortwave crosses over a juicy airmass Thursday
afternoon to Friday morning. Given those high pwat`s mentioned
above, we would see some high rain rates with the storms as they
cross. As we get into Thursday night, several hi-res model solutions
show east-west training going on with the storms as they cross MO,
increasing the threat for flooding. Euro Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) signal is similar in strength to what we saw with the past
weekend event, but farther south, basically south of the I-70
corridor instead of north. Long range ensemble members (LREF) have
the axis of highest rainfall right along the I-70 corridor, and
that`s similar to what NBM has as well, though the latter has 50th
percentile rainfall much higher than the LREF. Flood watches likely
will be posted later today for this event.

In addition, storms will have some shear to work with so we cannot
rule out some severe weather. Even as we work into the Thursday
evening hours, the south side of that east-west band of precip will
have some low-level shear and instability to work with. Model
guidance pegs a warm front in the region as well to enhance that low-
level shear. An active pattern to watch for as we close out the work
week.

Friday and Friday night there could still be some lingering
rains/storms with any residual outflow boundaries...as it will not
take much lift in the remaining juicy airmass over the region. The
forcing aloft will make for less organization though.

Saturday marks a transition day as we see a ridge building across
the middle of the country. Winds will pick up from the south and low-
level thicknesses will rise quickly, bringing temperatures above
normal. Sunday through Tuesday that ridge aloft will strengthen and
get locked in over the Ohio Valley, maintaining hot temperatures.
EFI is not marking this as extreme warmth, but given the prolonged
cool period we`ve had, those doing outdoor activities certainly will
not the sudden change. Heat indices will get into the 100-110 degree
range those three days.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently VFR under generally clear skies with light and
variable winds at all terminals. Broken MVFR status may impinge
on the KC metro terminals from the southwest between roughly
12z and 18z Wednesday, but for now have kept VFR conditions
through the period. A few isolated showers/storms may be
possible in the region Wednesday evening, but have kept the TAF
precip free. Light and variable winds should persist through the
majority of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM...Sharp
AVIATION...Williams