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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 2:58 pm CDT May 11, 2026 |
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
 Increasing Clouds
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Tuesday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Wednesday
 Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Thursday
 Mostly Sunny then Mostly Sunny and Breezy
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Friday
 Mostly Sunny
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Friday Night
 Chance Showers
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| Lo 60 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 55 °F |
Hi 82 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 60. South southwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Tuesday
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Increasing clouds, with a high near 87. South southwest wind 11 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 55. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 82. Light northwest wind becoming north northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 54. North wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable. |
Thursday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Friday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers before 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 91. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Monday
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A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
156
FXUS63 KEAX 112000
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures expected this week, with highs
approaching 90 degrees by Friday.
- Chance (15 to 30%) for storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
few of these could be strong to severe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
H5 analysis shows troughing across the eastern CONUS, with
ridging over much of the western CONUS and a shortwave trough
moving into the Northern Plains, resulting in continued
northwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. At the surface, a weak
boundary is analyzed across northeastern Missouri, extending
back to the northwest and connecting to a 1002 mb surface low
over southern Saskatchewan. With higher mid level heights
building in from the western ridge, temperatures today will be
quite a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s to lower 80s and 10 to 15 mph southwesterly winds.
The aforementioned shortwave trough currently across the
Intermountain West into the Northern Plains will dig into the
Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow and eventually into the Ohio
Valley by tomorrow evening, sending a cold front toward our CWA
from the northwest. Warm air and moisture advection ahead of
this system will help send temperatures into the mid to upper
80s tomorrow afternoon along with dew points rising into the low
to mid 50s and SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph. The front should
enter into far NW Missouri by mid Tuesday afternoon, into the
KC metro by the evening, and through the CWA by around midnight.
12z SPC HREF shows a narrow corridor of up to around 1250 J/kg
of SB CAPE out ahead of the approaching front, along with around
40 knots of deep layer bulk shear. Low level lapse rates should
steepen ahead of the front, yielding inverted V soundings and a
damaging wind potential. Additionally, modestly steep mid level
lapse rates may support a marginally severe hail threat, as
well. However, despite the decent parameter space for strong to
severe storms, forcing remains better to our northeast, and
strongly veered surface winds should limit convergence along the
front and may not be enough to yield convective initiation.
CAMs continue to not really convect along the front in our CWA,
with only 20 to 30 percent PoPs in the current forecast.
Temperatures should be cooler on Wednesday behind the front as
surface high pressure builds in and we remain on the western
periphery of longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS.
However, temperatures should rebound quickly as shortwave upper
ridging moves back in from the west, with highs in the upper 80s
to perhaps even the lower 90s for Friday through Sunday. By
Friday night into Saturday, guidance suggests a shortwave trough
moving into the Southern Plains, yielding southwesterly deep
layer flow. On Sunday, yet another shortwave is projected to
move into the Northern Plains. This will result in low end PoPs
(20 to 40 percent) for much of the weekend. This trough is
progged to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late Sunday
night, potentially bringing another cold front through the
region and increasing PoPs to 50 to 60 percent. NBM guidance
continues to run a little warm, and forecast MaxTs for Friday
through Sunday may still be too warm, especially with the
potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
VFR conditions under generally clear skies should persist
through the period. Southwest winds around 10 knots this
afternoon should become more southerly (around 200 degrees) by
this evening, remaining around 10 knots. SW winds should begin
gusting to around 22 knots by 8 to 10z Tuesday, with gusts up to
26 knots by 14z Tuesday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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