St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS63 KEAX 051127
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-20% chance for light rain/drizzle across northern MO this
morning with low clouds building in throughout the day.

- Increasing chance for overnight lows at or below freezing Friday
night into Saturday morning

- Warm and dry conditions return by late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Current 500 mb analysis shows that the upper level low has
progressed slightly to the NE into Wisconsin, while the next
mid/upper level low has moved further east into SE Colorado. At the
surface, the closed low over the Great Lakes has also shifted
slightly to the NE into southern Ontario, allowing for clouds to
clear out for most of MO. However, clear skies will be short lived
as the 500 mb low over SE Colorado moves into the Southern Plains
and a positively tilted upper level trough and surface cold front
form across MO. The front will support lift along and behind the
boundary and increasing moisture in the vertical profile will allow
low level clouds to encompass the region by this afternoon with a
slight chance (15-20%) of light rain/drizzle across northern MO this
morning. The pressure gradient at the surface will be weak during
the day Thursday so while the cold front will bring more northerly
flow, it will be weak, making it more difficult to dry out near the
surface, keeping clouds around into Friday morning and keeping
overnight lows in the low 40s.

By Friday, a large amplitude upper-level ridge will be situated over
the central US while high pressure builds in from the Upper Midwest
at the surface, supporting sustained northerly flow and strong CAA
across the CWA. Models continue to trend colder for Friday night
into Saturday and show a very favorable setup for dropping below
freezing. Models solidly place a surface high over MO by Saturday
morning with dewpoints in the low 30s indicating a dry airmass over
us that would support ideal radiational cooling. Therefore the
current forecast has lows in the upper 20s for north/central MO and
low 30s for more urban areas. Low temperatures in addition to light
winds would favor frost/freeze conditions. Based on collaboration
with neighboring offices and the warm fall that we have had, we will
likely issue a freeze warning for areas below 32 degrees and a frost
advisory for the remaining areas as we continue to monitor forecast
trends.

By this weekend, a weak 500 mb over the SW CONUS will shift east
towards the Gulf and continue to weaken as a low amplitude ridge
settles across the northern half of the CONUS. This will keep
conditions dry for early next week as highs increase back into the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

CIGS are currently VFR but will quickly deteroriate to MVFR from
north to south starting around 15Z and will remain MVFR through the
forecast period. Winds are currently out of the WNW but will shift
out of the N by 18Z. There is a 15-20% of light rain/drizzle along
the MO/IA border from 12Z-18Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...IPC
AVIATION...IPC