St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

210
FXUS63 KEAX 310506
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Additional rounds of storms are expected tonight.  Storms will be
  capable of producing heavy rainfall, and possibly a strong wind
  gust.

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Friday ahead of a
  strong cold front.

* Breezy- windy conditions are expected Friday night into
  Saturday with cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper level ridge across the southwestern US is expected to remain
through the period.  Broad upper level trough across the Dakotas is
expected to intensify and surface cold front is expected to build
south through the region tomorrow.  Ahead of the front, a weakly
capped atmosphere could lead to periodic rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

As the low level jet develops this evening across the Central
Plains, there is the potential for elevated non severe storms to
develop across eastern KS building east into western and central
Missouri.  With precipitable water values of nearly 2.3" and warm
cloud depths of 13-14K feet, anything that develops would be very
efficient in producing rainfall.  Individual storms are expected to
build east 15-20 knots, which should be enough movement to prevent
flooding unless there is training of storms.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the low center this
evening across south central South Dakota into northern Nebraska.
These storms are expected to organize in time and build down the
thermal ridge/ instability axis potentially impacting the region
after 06Z tonight. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to generally be 20-
25 knots, so storms may struggle a bit to organize into a MCS;
however, storms will be building southeast into an increasing low
level jet that may aid in an isolated wind threat.

These storms are expected to outrun the surface front- creating a
conditional threat for the potential for redeveloping storms on
Friday with sufficient destabilization. SPC has upgraded the day 2 to
slight risk across portions of central into eastern Missouri for the
potential of gusty winds and a conditional tornado threat if storms
are able to become surface based.

Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop Friday night and
continue into Saturday with 30-40 knots of flow at 925 hpa. 850 hpa
temperatures are expected to fall into the lower teens, keeping high
temperatures unseasonably cool on Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to gradually warm next week towards
climatological norms.  Precipitation chances return to the region
late week as additional waves build east along the periphery of the
upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A line of storms is still likely to move through the terminals
between 07-11Z. Reductions in ceilings and visibility can be
expected as the storms impact each terminal. Winds may also gust
25-35kts in the strongest storms. This line moves east of the
terminals in the predawn hours with VFR conditions in their
wake. During the afternoon, a cold front will move through,
shifting winds to the west and then northwest and increasing
wind speeds and gusts. Wind gusts of 25kts look likely from the
northwest. An area of MVFR ceilings also is likely to move into
the area behind the cold front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB