St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

047
FXUS63 KEAX 261814
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
114 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers still linger across the region this
  afternoon as a low pressure slides across northern MO.

- Very conditional storm threat tomorrow with a strong cap in
  place. If we manage to break the cap storms will have an
  environment that could foster damaging winds and large hail.
  20% that storms develop in the afternoon.

- Hot and humid Sunday through the next work week. Heat indicies
  climb into the triple digits with minimal relief overnight.
  Extreme Heat Warnings will likely be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Surface low pressure is sliding across northern MO this
afternoon. Wrap around moisture around the system has scattered
rain showers over the region. Activity is largely starting to
diminish west to east as the low pulls east. Some reinvigoration
of storms will be possible along a line of convergence. Current
guidance leans towards having this zone just south of our
southern CWA counties. Therefore, SPC has pulled the severe risk
out of our CWA for today.

Saturday marks the start of our warming trend. Easterly winds in the
morning will be replaced with winds out of the south as a warm front
lifts north. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with
precipitation chances for the day, which is fairly common place when
we get into these warm air advection regimes. Most of the
deterministic models are a bit more bullish on the precipitation
chances with the CAMs much more tapered back. Model soundings
indicate that there will be a cap in place as warm air aloft filters
into the region. Storm development will be quite conditional as to
whether or not the cap can be broken. Additional forcing from some
synoptic drivers will have to be in play to overcome the cap. Which,
we in fact do have for Saturday by way of a warm front and a weak
shortwave aloft. That being said, timing and placement of these
features would need to align with peak heating to stand a chance at
developing any storms. The latest guidance still shows high variance
in solutions so we have limited the PoPs to 20%. Any storms that do
manage to develop could be severe with a high amount of instability
to work with, but bulk shear looks to be a tad on the low side with
speeds of 30-35 kts. For now, SPC has us in a marginal risk (1/5)
for the conditional threat tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An omega blocking pattern emerges on Sunday and looks to hold
firm through most of next week. A deepening trough over western
CONUS with a strong ridge over the Midwest will lead to a heat
dome engulfing the region. Strong surface heating will regularly
lead to max temperatures in the 90s. The added impact of
southerly winds driving dewpoints up will lead to heat indicies
in the triple digits. Poor overnight recovery with temperatures
only dropping into the mid and upper 70s. Heat risk will
routinely be in the major risk category for the region on
Monday with a few areas in the extreme risk category by
Tuesday. This prolonged heat wave will likely see an extreme
heat warning issued in later forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Surface low pressure continues to move across northern MO with
MVFR/IFR ceilings filling in behind the system. Several weak
boundaries lingering over the metro have spawned a few light rain
showers. Rain showers are expected to taper off over the next
several hours but dense cloud cover is expected to persist through
the night. Fog may also develop later tonight before eroding
tomorrow morning. There is a 60-80% chance of MVFR ceilings
continuing until noon tomorrow before conditions improve south to
north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Britt
LONG TERM...Britt
AVIATION...Britt