St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXUS63 KEAX 150509
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potent storm system will affect the region today.

    - High winds are likely this morning through tonight with
      wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. Some areas may see wind gusts
      near or exceeding 58 mph.

    - Wintry precipitation likely as cold air surges into the
      area behind a passing cold front this afternoon into
      tonight, with the potential for snow squalls leading to
      brief periods of significantly reduced visibility.

    - Bitterly cold wind chill values expected late tonight into
      Monday morning with values below zero for most of the
      region.

-  Warmer conditions build into the region for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Multi hazard weather event still on target to impact region on
Sunday. A potent mid/upper trough is projected to deepen as it
enters the Plains by early Sunday morning, with an associated
990 mb surface low centered over far SW Iowa/NW Missouri by
around 6 AM Sunday morning and a trailing cold front extending
to the south southwest through NW Missouri into far eastern
Kansas. This surface low and front will move west to east
through the region on Sunday. Most recent HRRR runs show the
front making it through the KC metro by around 10 AM Sunday and
completely through the CWA by around 1 PM Sunday. Most of what
was written in the previous discussion is still very much valid,
but with additional high resolution model runs, certain details
have come into better focus. The potential hazards will be
discussed individually below.

Strong to Severe Storms:

The threat for strong to severe storms was already low, but has
only continued to decrease. 00z SPC HREF ensemble mean shows
only a relatively narrow corridor of 100 to 500 J/kg of ML CAPE
with only marginally higher amounts of MU CAPE out ahead of the
approaching front. Most recent CAM runs do not initiate robust
convection across the CWA, holding off on that until the front
exits our region to the east. That said, even with only very
modest instability, strong deep layer shear could still support
a relatively well organized updraft, with the best chance for
this residing from roughly Moberly to Sedalia. This just seems
increasingly unlikely at this time.


High Winds Expected Behind the Front Sunday Morning - Monday AM:

The most confident aspect of this forecast continues to be the
winds. It is going to be windy across the entire area. The main
concern is just how far do the strongest winds make it southward
into Missouri and eastern Kansas. Confidence is highest in
areas from Leavenworth County, KS to Adair County, MO will see
wind gusts pushing 60 mph during the afternoon and evening
hours. A High Wind Warning is in effect for these counties.
South of this, high end advisory level winds will be realized
with gusts pushing 50-55 mph. It`s possible a further expansion
southward of the High Wind Warning will be needed, given steep
lapse rates through 1.5 km and winds in that layer near 50 kts.
But the tighter pressure gradient will be across northern MO
with slightly less steep lapse rates but stronger winds through
that layer. Winds will increase behind the strong cold front
that will move through the area from mid Sunday morning through
early Sunday afternoon. There may be brief lag before the
strongest winds move in though, but once they do, Wind Warning
level winds will linger into the overnight hours. Winds begin to
diminish early Monday morning with winds falling below advisory
criteria late Monday morning or early Monday afternoon.


Wintry Precipitation Behind the Front as Cold Air Surges South:

This aspect is potentially the hardest to message. High resolution
models have trended less snowy over the past 12 hours, with
accumulations decreasing, but there will likely be periods of snow
coincident with the strongest winds. With the strong upper-level PV
anomaly moving overhead, could see burst of snow with brief
significant reductions in visibility during each burst. Of note, the
NAM, GFS and even the RAP show near or slightly higher snow squall
parameters than the levels forecast from the mid January snow squall
event. Additionally, with fracturing of snow crystals, snow ratios
will be lower, cutting into snow amounts. So overall, snow amounts
will be less than half an inch for most locations. For northeastern
MO, amounts may reach 1 to 1.5". It`s important to note that, while
overall snow amounts will not be impressive, the snow coming in
burst may cause problems on area roadways. It is unlikely that any
location within our CWA will reach blizzard criteria (quarter mile
or less visibility for 3 hours or more), but far northern Missouri
near the Iowa border would have the best chance.


Bitterly Cold Temperatures Monday Morning:

With strong cold advection behind the front, temperatures will
plummet into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning.
Winds will continue to remain elevated as the storm system exits the
region and this combination will lead to wind chill values ranging
from as cold as 15 degrees below zero near the Iowa border to
slightly below zero across southern portions of the CWA. Have
decided to hold of on a cold weather advisory for our far
northern counties for now (criteria is wind chills at or below
negative 15 degrees).

By Monday afternoon, a closed ~515 dam H5 low is progged to be
centered over Lake Michigan, with a very highly amplified long wave
trough over the east central CONUS. Our CWA should be located on the
back side of this trough, with gusty NW winds and ample CAA
continuing. High temperatures should remain at or below freezing for
Monday, ranging from the mid 20s across NE Missouri to the lower 30s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Mid/upper ridging begins to impinge on the area from the west
on Tuesday, warming temps into the 40s for Tuesday afternoon for
most locations. A clipper system translating across the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday night could bring some light snow across far
NE Missouri, but better chances for this should remain north of
the Iowa border. Upper ridging builds in further on Wednesday,
warming temps into the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Thursday, models
suggest a 590+ dam H5 high developing across the Desert
Southwest into NW Mexico, with attendant ridging in place across
the western half of the CONUS. This will send mid level heights
even higher on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to warm mid
70s to potentially even the lower 80s toward the MO/KS border.
Dry conditions are favored for Monday through the end of the
week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong low level jet across the area tonight leading to low
level wind shear. Surface winds are expected to become
increasingly gusty as surface inversion weakens. Cold front is
expected to sweep through the region between 13-18Z. Behind the
front, brisk northwest winds are expected to develop. Could see
rain/snow closer to the low center across northern Missouri, but
farther south precipitation may hold off till the atmosphere
cools and the cloud layer becomes coincident with the dendritic
layer. Strong northwest winds linger beyond the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     MOZ001-002-011-012-020-028.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020-028.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for MOZ025-
     029>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for
     MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>024.
KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     KSZ025-102-103.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for KSZ057-
     060-104-105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BT