St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS63 KEAX 092323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of rain and snow is likely (50-75%) tonight. There is a
  small chance of minor accumulations (10-30% chance for snow
  amounts greater 0.5").

- Low potential for snow showers Saturday afternoon and early
  evening along and north of highway 36. No accumulation
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The main concern this forecast period will revolve around a rain
mixing with or transitioning over to light snow tonight with very
minor accumulations possible. The other concern will be the chance
for some snow showers tomorrow afternoon. This afternoon a mid-level
shortwave is ejecting out of southwestern Kansas. Moisture stream
northeastward ahead of this system is moving into central Kansas.
This trough will move into the area tonight with weak forcing
keeping showers on the like side. Temperatures will be in the upper
30s as precipitation arrive so it will begin as rain after 00Z.
Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s during the event
which will allow precipitation to mid with or transition over to
snow. However, with any snow rates expected to be light, warm
surface temperatures, and air temperatures above freezing any more
than a dusting to a half of snow if unlikely. Probabilities of a
0.5" of snow currently only range between 20-40%. This system will
move out of the area well before sunrise bringing in drier
conditions for tomorrow morning. However, tomorrow afternoon a
strong PV anomaly will move into northern Missouri forcing a cold
front through the area. Rain/Snow showers associated with this
feature will be possible for areas along and north of the Highway 36
corridor however again temperatures are expected to be in the mid to
upper 30s so no accumulation is expected. Highs areawide tomorrow
will range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south.

A surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area from the
Canadian Plains Saturday night into Sunday bringing a very
seasonable mid-January day with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Sunday night the surface ridge will shift southeast of the area and
WAA will get underway in its wake. WAA will continue into Monday
under relaxing northwest flow aloft which will aid in highs rising
into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tuesday a upper level trough will dig
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. This will sent a
weak cold front into the area late in the day however, out ahead of
the system downslope westerly flow with aid in highs rising into the
50s. A PV anomaly rotating around the southern end of this upper
level trough will push a reinforcing cold front through the area
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. With strong CAA behind this front
highs will return to near normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s on
Wednesday. A Canadian ridge of high pressure then moves into the
area Wednesday night into Thursday providing weak mixing and keeping
highs near normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Rain will move into eastern KS and western MO in the 2-3 hours
and spread over all terminals in the process. Conditions
deteriorate to low MVFR to possibly IFR during the heaviest
precipitation. As temperatures cool, a transition to RASN and
possibly a brief period of SN will occur. Precipitation moves
east of the terminals before sunrise with VFR conditions
prevailing. Winds increase from the west by the afternoon hours
with gusts of 20 to as high as 25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB