St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS63 KEAX 050812
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures today.

- Dry conditions are very likely (>85%) through the week with
  above normal temperatures expected. There is a low chance
  (~15%) Thursday night across northern Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

High pressure is building southward across the central US this
morning. Through the day, this high will settle into the Middle
Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes area. This will shift our
winds from light and variable, to the east, and eventually to
the southeast late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
overperformed my forecast by a few degrees on Sunday and with
clear skies and light winds shifting to the southeast, we should
once again see temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s.

For Tuesday onward, high pressure shifts to the eastern US, with low-
level flow becoming southerly to southwesterly. In the upper-levels,
broad upper ridging builds over the western US. This will lead to
warm advection through the middle of the country and as a result,
we`ll see our highs climb into the low to mid 80s for the southern
two-thirds of the forecast area, and the upper 70s for northern
Missouri to the Iowa state line. This places highs about 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. This pattern is
also very likely to keep the area dry through most of the
forecast. The exception continues to look like Thursday night.
Ensemble guidance depicts a broad low chance, about 15-20% for
at least 0.01" of rain, across northern Missouri. Overnight,
models show an area of ascent, noted from 300k to 305K as the
low-level jet develops. This also feeds into an area of
diffluence aloft with strong upper-level jet energy moving
across Iowa. Moisture still seems fairly limited though, with
GFS forecast soundings for northern Missouri and southern Iowa
showing the lowest 10,000 feet being dry, with some elevated
instability above this dry layer. For now, slight chance PoPs
are reasonable given the offsetting parameters of modest ascent
but relatively poor low-level moisture profiles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR continuing to prevail at most terminals with winds remaining
light/VRB under SKC. Continuing to see signals for the
development of patchy fog overnight, with low-lying areas/river
valleys potentially having denser fog development. As such,
have kept the TEMPO for dense fog at KSTJ between 9-12z,
following trends from the previous night. Seeing some sporadic
visibility reductions at downtown terminals, but not confident
enough to have mentions of BR/FG at those sites. Otherwise,
winds expected to pick up out of the east/southeast by tomorrow
between 16-18z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...SPG