St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

744
FXUS63 KEAX 081116
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chance (25-35%) for sprinkles across northern MO this morning
  before shower/storm chances (50-65%) return Friday afternoon
  along and south of I-70.

* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the
  CWA could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being
  large hail and damaging winds.

* Additional rain potential (45-55%) late Saturday PM/early
  Sunday AM.

* Warming trend expected early next week with widespread 80+
  degree temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Current (2 AM CDT) 500-hPa analysis shows a high amplitude
ridge over the Pacific Coast with broad troughing over the
eastern CONUS. As a result, the Central Plains is situated under
northwesterly flow aloft. Weak pressure gradients at the
surface have allowed winds to become light and variable in
direction. Temperatures are in the mid-to-upper 50s across the
area with lows expected to fall into the upper 40s and lower
50s. Clear skies are expected to fill in through the early
morning hours as mid-level clouds stream in from the northwest
associated with a weak shortwave. Model soundings across
northern MO show relatively steep lapse rates (7-8 C/km) through
the cloud layer, which paired with the shortwave, indicate that
showers may be possible. However, a deep layer of dry air will
remain present from the cloud bases to the surface, which will
make it difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. As
such, have added a chance (25-35%) for some sprinkles through
the morning across northern MO (primarily north of I-70) along
and north of a slow moving cold front.

The cold front is expected to stall out near the I-70 corridor,
providing the focus for the next chance for showers and storms
later today (50-65% along and south of I-70). Southwesterly
surface flow through the morning will bring some Gulf moisture
into the southern portion of the CWA with dew points climbing
from the mid-40s to the mid-50s by the afternoon along and south
of I-70. This moisture return, along with temperatures climbing
into the low-to-mid 70s and the previously mentioned steep mid-
level lapse rates, will allow 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to build
by mid-afternoon. Aloft, another shortwave is progged to move
through the longwave troughing pattern, bringing a quick hit of
forcing to the Central Plains this afternoon. This sets the
stage for showers and storms, primarily across southern MO,
before the weak cold front sweeps across the remainder of the
area this evening. However, the combination of morning cloud
cover/sprinkles/showers potentially limiting the amount of
instability that is able to build, along with the best upper-
level support being south and west of the CWA creates some
uncertainty in the coverage and magnitude of storms this
afternoon. Most CAMs depict unorganized convection initiating
around 20Z along and south of I-70 with cells becoming more
organized as they exit the CWA to southeast. 35-45 kts of deep
layer shear will allow the most organized storms to be capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds, which has led to a
SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the southern portion of
the area.

As the showers/storms exit the area this evening, temperatures
will fall into the upper 40s areawide before southerly flow
returns Saturday, driving highs into the low-to-mid 80s beneath
mostly sunny skies. Saturday evening, another quick moving
shortwave will propagate through the pattern, bringing another
chance (45-55%) for showers and storms to the area. Dry air in
the low-levels will limit the amount of instability that is able
to build and the upper-level support is ill-timed to support
the development of strong/severe storms. However, showers, along
with a few rumbles of thunder, are still possible (45-55%)
Saturday evening into the overnight hours.

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning, forcing the showers/storms out of the area.
Persistent northerly flow behind the front will usher seasonable
temperatures back into the area on Sunday with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. This will be short lived, however, with
the longwave trough shifting to the east Sunday into Monday and
ridging building over the Plains through the early portions of
the week. Mid-level height rises, along with southerly surface
flow will drive highs into the mid-to-upper 70s on Monday and
mid-80s on Tuesday. A brief reprieve may occur Wednesday as a
shortwave moves north of the area Tuesday evening, pushing a
cold front through. This, coincidentally, brings the next chance
for precipitation, albeit a low chance (15-25% across
northeastern MO).

Ridging again builds over the Central Plains on Thursday,
persisting into the weekend. Highs are currently expected to
push towards 90F for the first time since late March (which just
sounds weird to say), however, model guidance shows some
disagreements on whether the area will be directly beneath the
ridge axis or on the periphery. This will play a role in both
how warm the area will get and any precipitation chances that
may occur with shortwaves moving through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the
TAF period. Light southwesterly winds will become variable
through the afternoon before returning to southwesterly this
evening. Mid-level clouds will be present through the day,
scattering out late this afternoon. All four terminals may
(25-35%) see some sprinkles to a light shower this morning
before low-end chances (15-25%) for showers/storms move in this
afternoon at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD, however, confidence in
occurrence is too low to include a mention in the TAFs at this
time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Carothers