St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

358
FXUS63 KEAX 301643
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the entire forecast.
  High and low temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal
  next week with heat index values ranging from 100 to 105.

- Low chances (15-25%) for precipitation across northern
  Missouri early this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The main forecast concern will continue to be the well above normal
temperatures which will finish out the weekend and continue through
next week. This will come courtesy of an upper level ridge which
will be anchored over the area. Today through Tuesday the upper
level ridge axis will remain directly over the area. This coupled
with moderate WAA over the area through that same period will keep
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the mid 90s to near 100.
There will be a very gradual increase of dewpoints through this
period which will aid in a gradual increase of heat indices through
this period as well. Heat index values today will be in the 95-102
range but will rise to 100-105 by Tuesday. The only shot of
precipitation through this period will come this morning across far
northern Missouri where a slight chance (15-25%) of a light
shower/isolated thunderstorm is possible.

Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis begins to slide southeastward
however, the local area will remain under its influence keeping
highs in the mid 90s to near 100. Wednesday night into Thursday a
upper level shortwave will move from the Great Basin region into the
northern Plains. This will force a cold front into the Upper Midwest
to central Plains. This will increase moisture into the area and
this coupled with weak shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge
will have the chance (15-25%) to bring a few rounds of storms to the
area Thursday and Friday. While there is the chance that showers
and cloud cover may limit temperatures a bit, highs Thursday and
Friday are still expected to reach the mid to upper 90s. With more
ample moisture being ushered into the area in the Wednesday-Friday
period, heat index values for most will still remain between 100-105
however, some areas south of the Missouri River may rise into that
105-110 range which may require heat headlines for part of the
forecast area. Saturday, models suggest the upper level ridge begins
to retrograde back west with the axis building back across the
region. This will continue to keep temperatures will above normal in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions through the period with gusty southwest winds
after 15Z. Gusts are expected to drop off towards sunset, but
low level jet does not appear to be strong enough for mention of
low level wind shear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73

AVIATION...BT