St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS63 KEAX 140540
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend with
  lows in the 20s (5-10 degrees below normal) and highs in
  upper 40s to lower 50s (~5 degrees below normal).

- Dry conditions expected through the middle of next week.
  Precipitation chances increase Thursday - Friday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted show upper-level
ridging building into the middle of the country, with deep troughing
over the eastern US and a strong upper low off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest. At the surface, an elongated high pressure area is
spread from the Upper Midwest through the ArkLaTex, with the surface
ridge moving through the middle of the forecast area. As this high
pressure remains generally in place through tomorrow morning,
overnight lows will fall to their coldest levels of the season. Lows
tonight should range from the lower 20s in central and northeastern
Missouri, to the middle 20s through the KC area. With light winds
expected, a dry airmass, and no cloud cover expected, there may be
some sheltered areas that fall into the teens tomorrow morning. This
is about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year and if some
sheltered areas fall into the teens, it`s closer to 15 degrees below
normal. That high pressure area slowly shifts to the east,
which allows for a slightly greater pressure gradient and winds
becoming light from the east to southeast. That should help
temperatures to be not as cold Sunday morning vs Saturday
morning but we`ll still see morning lows ranging from the lower
20s to near freezing in the KC urban core. A similar moderation
of overnight lows continues Monday morning but most areas are
likely to fall into the 20s, with the urban areas of KC near to
slightly above freezing. By Tuesday, the surface high has
shifted well east of the area and the upper ridging builds
eastward. This will lead surface winds to become southerly, with
increasing heights and thicknesses, allowing temperatures to
rebound back to above normal levels. Normal temperatures for the
middle of next week are in the lower 50s for highs and lower
30s for lows and we should see highs climb into the 60s by
Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, some our southeastern zones
may see highs climb into the 70s.

For the later half of next week, the persistent southerly low-level
flow will increase moisture into the area. With the upper ridge
shifting to the east broad troughing builds over the western half of
the US. This pattern leads to increasing precipitation chances
across the middle of country and we see lower chance probabilities
of precipitation (15-30%) move into eastern KS and MO Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions remain expected through the current TAF period
and beyond. Light and variable winds overnight give way to SE
winds up to around 5 to 8 kts during the day Saturday. SCT to
BKN250 cloud cover will be present much of the time as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis