St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS63 KEAX 290008
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
708 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trend not quite as hot this afternoon -
  Wednesday, then noticeably cooler and less humid conditions
  for the weekend.

- Active weather pattern sets up through the end of the workweek
  with multiple chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows the axis of
the upper ridge roughly along or just east of the Rockies. This
places the middle to lower Missouri Valley within northwesterly flow
aloft. At the surface, we`re in a bit of a pressure col with high
pressure building into the Great Lakes. This surface high will
become more established overnight and allow for weak easterly
to southeasterly low-level winds to develop. This sets up an
area of low to mid-level convergence from north-central KS into
southeastern MO and it`s this area of convergence that will
help lead to an area of showers and storms developing overnight
into tomorrow morning. Through the overnight, isentropic ascent,
aided by the low to mid- level convergence, develops adding
some forcing needed for precipitation. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity. The forecast area remains at that
interface of the high pressure to our east and westerly mid-
level flow over the Plains. This keeps an area of convergence
and isentropic ascent situated across eastern KS and western MO
through Thursday, leading to multiple chances for showers and
storms in the area. Severe weather chances remain low through
Thursday with relatively weak flow aloft limiting shear.

A stronger shortwave trough will move across the Northern
Plains/ Upper Midwest Thursday night - Friday. This will help
push a cold front through the area and lead to the best chances
for precipitation through this forecast period. The threat of
severe weather continues to look low, with marginal shear and
instability present. But PWAT values over 2" and strong moisture
transport into the area, locally heavy rainfall looks possible.

In the wake of this system, cooler and drier air will move into the
area for the weekend. Highs should top out in the low to mid 80s but
after a week of dewpoints in the middle 70s to lower 80s, dewpoints
in the low to mid 60s will be noticeably drier.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Main concern for the next 24 hours is thunderstorm chances at
the terminals. Model consensus maintains that convection
tonight into tomorrow morning will stay to the south/west of
the TAF sites, but think chances are high enough at IXD to
include a PROB30 mention of showers late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, VFR and light/variable winds are expected
through Wednesday morning. High-resolution models are simulating
storms developing Wednesday afternoon/evening in northwest
Missouri and adjacent areas to the west. Chances for these
storms are highest at STJ, where a PROB30 has been added for the
mid/late afternoon hours. However, chances are lower at the KC
terminals, and with model certainty quite low at this
point, have held off on inclusion of thunder mention at these
sites for now. VFR and east to southeast winds around 10 kt are
expected in the absence of storms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CMS