St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS63 KEAX 012320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday evening.
  Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will not provide
  relief from daytime heat.

- Most areas remain dry through the end of this week. There is
  a chance for weakening showers and storms over far
  northwestern Missouri each evening.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible on Saturday, July 4th, in the
  evening and overnight. Scattered storm chances continue into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The thermal ridge remains the dominant weather feature across the
central US today. The western edge of this ridge is most often
across Kansas and Nebraska with convection along this boundary,
though decaying convection may reach far northwest Iowa each day.
Hot and humid conditions will continue to impact the area each day
with week with highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s, resulting in heat indicies reaching 100-110. With high
dewpoints in place there is little relief overnight as low only
briefly touch the 70s each night and limit any relief from the heat.

By Friday the ridge begins to break down and isolated storms are
possible, though there is little in the way of a forcing mechanism
on Friday and these would likely be pulsey airmass thunderstorms if
they develop. On Saturday a shortwave will ride across the ridge and
help to break is down further. Current guidance indicates the
reaches the area Saturday evening, allowing temperatures to remain
hot and humid through the day before storms develop in the evening
and through the overnight. The airmass is deeply unstable with 3500-
4000+ J/kg of CAPE but very little shear to organize storms.

Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Saturday and early next week
as the ridge rebuilds. Should the ridge rebuild faster then a quick
return of heat with less storms is more likely, while slower rebuild
of the ridge would allow for continued scattered thunderstorms with
lower (relatively lower, still very warm) temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. Wind gusts
will calm tonight before picking up again tomorrow along the
usual diurnal curve. Wind gusts of around 20 knots once again
with tomorrow seeing more of a southwest shift vs south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Carletta