St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXUS63 KEAX 042314
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
514 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy South winds today, strongest over W/NW Missouri and into
  portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.
  - Gusts 25 to 30 mph possible, easing as you move eastward

* Warming, above normal, temperatures through mid-week
  - Highs rising into the 50s to mid 60s
  - Normal highs are mid-upper 30s

* Next chance for precipitation arrives latter portion of next week.
  - 25-40% chances by Thursday

* Potential for a strong system Friday bringing rain and
  possibly snow to the region

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

High clouds are gradually clearing out this afternoon. A
strengthening pressure gradient across eastern Kansas into
northwest Missouri has led to an increase in warmer, southerly
flow, which will continue the warming trend with highs
this afternoon peaking in the 40s to low 50s.

Satellite shows the low pressure system over the Northern Plains
pulling a stream of high clouds into the region along an axis
stretching from the Gulf of California eastward across north
Texas and Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri.
These are the high clouds we are seeing today, which will be
pushed off to the east as subsidence builds eastward into our
area behind the moisture boundary.

The upper-level ridging pattern that has been in place across
the Rockies breaks down into a more progressive, zonal flow
pattern allowing a series of upper-level waves to move through,
starting initially with the one currently seen to our north. The
next open-wave system moves in Monday-Tuesday, amplifying warm-
air advection again Monday ahead of the developing surface low
which will warm temperatures even more into the 50s to mid 60s
across our area on Monday afternoon. As this system tracks
northeast, it will have limited moisture to work with bringing
mainly high clouds again to the region on Monday. A dry cold
front moves through Monday night shifting winds to west or
northwesterly. Despite the shift in wind direction, the source
region of the air mass that moves in on Tuesday will still be
mild, so temperatures will again warm into the 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday afternoon.

A more substantial upper-level trough drops south off the coast
of Baja California early this week which we`ll be monitoring for
a more substantial series of systems later this week. While it
spins producing significant rainfall across northwest Mexico,
we`ll be watching for it to eject eastward, bringing the first
in a one-two punch of waves into the Plains Wednesday night into
Thursday. Models have trended slower with this first wave, now
developing the surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies
Thursday morning. While this wave acts to pull moisture up from
the Gulf into the region, bringing a band of heavier rainfall to
eastern Missouri and Illinois, we`ll be watching the second,
deepening wave on the back-side of the trough to develop a more
dynamic surface low. Ensembles show significant spread in where
this surface circulation develops, which creates exponentially
greater differences in their tracks as they progress eastward
and deepen. What many will see, though, via various sources is
the 12Z operational GFS run which paints a significant
frontogenesis band across northeast Kansas into northwest
Missouri. All we want to emphasize is that it is just one in a
very large range of solutions, so don`t put too much stock in
this scenario just yet.

Depending on where this system tracks and how it evolves, we are
likely to see a frontogenesis band develop somewhere across the
Central Plains, anywhere from northwest Missouri into Nebraska
and Iowa which could mean accumulating snow. The farther south
this band develops, the greater potential it will have to chew
through milder temperatures only decreasing the snow ratios
making accumulating snow harder, but not impossible. The worst-
case scenario is basically painted by the 12Z GFS with the
frontogenesis band setting up over northeast Kansas into far
northwest Missouri, producing heavy banded snow over a region
with temperatures starting out in the low 30s and likely to wet-
bulb down below freezing fairly quickly. The more likely
scenario painted by many if not most of the ensemble members is
that the Low tracks farther north, keeping the snow chances
mainly north of our area, with perhaps a brief changeover in our
far northwestern counties toward the end of the event. Dry air
gets pulled in actually not bringing much of anything other than
brief periods of light rain to our area before strong
northwesterly winds push in Friday night into Saturday.

Northwesterly flow moving in behind this system next weekend
will bring temperatures back down toward normal with highs back
in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Wind gusts should diminish with sunset. Watching for some
fog/mist potential with moisture advection this evening, but
winds should be enough to prevent it from becoming dense. A few
scattered clouds between 3-4kft are possible Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Krull