St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS63 KEAX 140517
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong
  to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and
  Friday.

* Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to
  persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions
  expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

An active weather week is in store for the Plains and Midwest with
Kansas and Missouri being no exception. Deep-layer southwest flow
and theta-e advection has allowed temperatures to climb into the
upper 70s and low 80s as of early Monday afternoon. A tight surface
pressure gradient has also led  to breezy conditions with sustained
wind speeds ranging from roughly 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 35-40
MPH.

There are two scenarios regarding tonight`s activity (or lack
thereof). The most likely (>90%) possibility is that no showers or
storms are able to develop outside of a rogue elevated, non-severe
shower/storm. Recent ACARS soundings from KMCI have continued to
show a persistent capping inversion around 800mb, which would
largely inhibit the development of strong/severe storms without a
lifting mechanism in the vicinity. The second, much less likely
possibility (<10%) is that an isolated storm could develop after
encountering some forcing, or a storm is able to form further west
where inhibition is more limited. With the amount of instability we
have available, a storm that is able to overcome the barriers in
place could easily become strong/severe. How long a storm would be
able to fuel itself in such a heavily capped environment is another
question which further reduces confidence in this occurring. Again,
this remains a highly unlikely scenario but possible nonetheless.

Warm temperatures will stick around on Tuesday with potential for
showers and storms beginning late in the afternoon. A low pressure
system currently over the southern California coast is progged to
lift northeastward later today. As it does so, a lead shortwave will
eject out ahead toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to
ensue with the resultant low moving into north central Kansas by
early Tuesday morning. A dryline extending south from the cyclone
and into Oklahoma and Texas will be important for storm potential
locally. CAMs/Hi-Res guidance indicate convective initiation
beginning along this boundary in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms that
develop will initially be discrete/semi-discrete before growing
upscale into messy clusters and/or quasi-linear segments. Following
mean southwest flow, storms would track northeastward; as such,
storms that initiate off of the dryline further south and west would
be expected to enter our CWA sometime late Tuesday afternoon or
early evening. Locally, we look to possess an environment conducive
to strong/severe convection: good instability (CAMs narrowing in on
a window of >2000 J/kg of CAPE early tomorrow evening) as well as
decent deep-layer shear and SRH. However, what we lack is a clear
lifting mechanism nearby, and this will limit our chances for
discrete convection tomorrow. If the dryline moves further east than
currently forecast, or if a discrete storm from northern
OK/southeast KS is able to sustain itself long enough without
growing upscale, we would be posed with a greater tornado and hail
threat. With no clear route for ascent and indications of at least
some degree of a cap, though, we expect wind to be the primary/most
widespread hazard with non-discrete convection. CAMs have also
picked up on convective initiation in northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri late Wednesday evening as the LLJ ramps up; these storms
would present a wind threat as well. There is still plenty of
uncertainty regarding the evolution of the forecast tomorrow, much
of it dependent on the placement of the dry line as well as the
surface low.

Severe weather potential exists on Wednesday, but the threat looks
to be rather conditional, relying upon how the atmosphere is able to
recover from the prior day`s showers and storms. Model guidance
keeps the CWA clouded in over the course of the day with some
clearing in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Overall, there is
less instability to work with as well as more capping (at least per
model depictions). Regardless, Thursday looks to be calmer, courtesy
of mid/upper-level ridging. Strong southwesterly flow will continue
to prevail, keeping us warm.

Finally, severe weather chances return again on Friday. Deep
southwesterly flow aloft looks to run over a moist, unstable airmass
provided by daytime theta-e advection as another surface cyclone
with an attendant cold front approaches from the leeside of the
Rockies. As the cold front nears, storms could develop along or near
it. Guidance suggests moderate instability and shear could be
available for storms to tap into, though details should become
clearer as we continue through the week. Following the passage of
the cold front, high temperatures on Saturday could be 20-25F lower.
While we will have to bid adieu to 80 degree temperatures for now,
the weekend looks to be dry once remnants of showers and storms move
out early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across the sites for much of the
period. Initially, a low VFR/high MVFR stratus deck may clip the
metro sites, especially KIXD, as that deck has blossomed in the
wake of outflow from storms earlier this evening. Am not
confident enough to include prevailing given soundings and
strong low level flow, but will monitor. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and gusty SW winds prevail across all sites through
much of the remainder of the period. After 00z, convection
expected to blossom and move up into the area. Given confidence
in convection, have included a prevailing TSRA group with a
PROB30 for higher intensity/low visibility potential. That
activity may carry into the overnight/past the end of this
current TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Curtis