St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXUS63 KEAX 132353
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday:

    - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Sunday late
      morning - early afternoon.

    - High winds are likely Sunday morning through Sunday night with
      wind gusts of 50-55 mph likely. Some areas may see wind gusts
      near or exceeding 58 mph.

    - Wintry precipitation expected as cold air surges into the area.

    - Bitterly cold wind chill values expected Monday morning with
      values below zero for much of the region.

* Warmer conditions build into the region for the later half of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday,
bringing a multitude of hazards to the area.

Strong - Severe Storm Potential:

As a PV anomaly deepens/digs into KS Sunday, strong moisture return
into the area will occur, pushing dewpoints into the mid to upper 50
degree range. Temperatures will also surge into the middle 60s ahead
of the front. This will lead to a narrow corridor of between 500 and
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. In the upper-
levels, strongly diffluent flow will develop as the left-front
quadrant of the upper-jet moves into the area. Very strong
deep-layer shear will be present, given the very strong
kinematic environment. With a very strong front moving through,
strong to potentially severe storms look possible ahead of the
frontal forcing, within the narrow corridor of CAPE as the front
quickly moves east through the late morning and early
afternoon. Forecast soundings do show a layer of warm air aloft
and that could entirely inhibit convection. But forcing will be
so strong it may be enough to overcome that inhibition.

High Winds Expected Behind the Front Sunday Morning - Overnight:

Very strong winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday
morning into the overnight hours. Models show the pressure gradient
rapidly tightening across northern MO/ northeastern KS as a
deepening surface low tracks east and a strong high pressure
area builds into the central to northern Plains. This leads to
50-100 microbar/km pressure gradient across the forecast area.
This is exceptionally strong for this area and suggest sustained
winds of 30 to 40 mph, with wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph. The
strongest winds, and the greatest potential to see winds
approaching 60 mph are far NW MO and NE KS. A High Wind Watch
has been issued for these areas. The NBM shows probabilities of
15-25% for hourly wind gusts to exceed 55 mph across this area.
For the entire event, probabilities jump to 40-70%, and then
continue across northern MO. It`s possible a High Wind Watch or
Warning will be needed across northern MO. But my confidence
was highest across our northwestern zones at this time. The
strongest winds are likeliest from Sunday afternoon into the
late evening hours, and begin to diminish after 06Z Monday as
the surface low moves away and the pressure gradient begins to
slacken. It will remain gusty though through the remainder of
the overnight and into Monday.

Wintry Precipitation Behind the Front as Cold Air Surges South:

On the heals of the rainfall and potential strong to severe storms,
cold air will surge southward behind the front. As cold air deepens,
a transition from liquid, to mixed, to snow will occur. The mixed
precipitation looks to be brief before the entire column cools
down to support snow. And with ground temperatures so warm from
the previous day and earlier in the day Sunday, there will be
minimal impact from this brief mixed precipitation. However, as
the cold air surges south and temperatures rapidly cool down
it`s possible that any liquid on roads (from previous rain and
melted wintry precip) could freeze and create slick road
conditions across the area. This potential will increase as
temperatures fall into the teens and single digits, reducing the
effectiveness of any road treatments. Overall snow
accumulations look fairly low, with less than an inch expected
through the KC area. Amounts will be higher further north, where
1-2" look possible north of Highway 36. Portions of north
central and northeastern MO, closer to the IA state line, may
see up to 3 inches with this system. All that said, it will be
snowing while the strong winds are moving through the area. This
will lead to visibility reductions with near-blizzard
conditions possible.

Bitterly Cold Temperatures Monday Morning:

With strong cold advection behind the front, temperatures will
plummet into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning.
Winds will continue to remain elevated as the storm system exits the
region and this combination will lead to bitterly cold wind chill
values. Values are forecast to range from near zero south of
Highway 50, to near -15 along the IA state line/ far
northwestern MO against Nebraska. Ensemble guidance shows a
roughly 10-20% chance for wind chill values below -15 across
north central MO. So it`s possible a Cold Weather Advisory may
be needed for some portion of northern MO.

Later Half of Next Week:

Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement in broad upper ridging
building over western North America. This will result in warming
temperatures across our region and we should see highs warm from the
40s on Tuesday, to the 70s for Wednesday - Friday. It wouldn`t be
surprising if temperatures begin to exceed 80 degrees Thursday
into Friday. NBM probabilities are greater than 50% for much of
the area these days so would anticipate our high temperature
forecast to trend warmer in the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals underneath some passing high
clouds with winds in the process of becoming light and variable.
VFR conditions are anticipated to persist through the period.
Winds should become east southeasterly by around 10z Saturday,
increasing to around 10 to 11 knots. Winds should veer further
to become south southeasterly by around 17z Saturday, with
occasional gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for MOZ001-002-011-012-020.
KS...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW