St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS63 KEAX 151944
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and possibly a few storms late tonight and early
  Tuesday morning. Severe weather threat is very low.

- Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3 out
  of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non-
  thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts
  possibly exceeding 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A weak cold front is set to swing through the area late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent/warm advection attendant to a
modest low level jet will foster at least scattered showers across
the area. Forecast soundings also hint at some weak mid level
instability to where some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled
out. The precipitation should diminish by mid morning if not
earlier with the passage of the front and waning LLJ. Tuesday
afternoon into evening looks to be drying out once again, as the
cold front settles south of the CWA and eventually stalls
beneath weak low level ridging/subsidence.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A strengthening LLJ and strong moist transport ahead of a deepening
trough and attendant 100+ m height falls spreading through the
Northern Plains should foster convection late Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Some convection is possible into northern
Missouri with the veering jet, but the brunt of the storms are
expected further north across Iowa where some potential for an
organized MCS exists pending extent of BL moisture/instability.
For Wednesday afternoon we`ll be watching for the potential of
storms ahead of a cold front. Ample deep layer shear 40-50 kt
0-6km bulk shear and plenty of instability 3000-4000+ CAPE
exists to support supercells with all hazards potential by mid
to late afternoon as MLCIN weakens along a sagging cold front.
Some uncertainty still exists on areal coverage of storms with a
more veered low level flow. This veering could also prove
helping in possibly limiting the tornado potential, at least the
potential for rather sustained potential limiting inflow and
offering more cold RFD dominance. Storms could evolve into a
broken line of which could transition to wind and potential for
a brief spin-up tornado before this all works it way out of the
area by mid evening.

A bout of surface high pressure and W/NW flow aloft should lead
to a rather pleasant and dry end to the week.

This weekend though the pattern continues to support a return
of active weather with another round of periodic waves
being shuttled across the Plains and Midwest. Abundant moisture
and deep layer shear will foster some threat for severe storms
with heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR and quiet conditions are expected for a good portion of the
TAF period, until late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Westerly
winds occasionally gusty to 15 kt will turn southerly tonight
ahead of a cold front. This boundary will bring scattered
showers with a chance of storms roughly between 16/09z-16/14z.
Ceilings should remain VFR with any activity, but there is
potential for brief pockets of IFR to MVFR visibility with any
TSRA. After the frontal passage winds Tuesday morning winds will
shift to westerly.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure