St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

662
FXUS63 KEAX 101919
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
219 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday
  afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail
  are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible
  which may lead to localized flooding.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next
  week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized
  flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of
  this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This afternoon, a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the
area, as the cold front that brought storms to the area last
night into this morning finally sinks south of the CWA. This is
provided much more comfortable temperatures with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface ridge will remain over the area
tonight providing light winds and mostly clear skies. That coupled
with a moist boundary layer will allow fog to develop over most of
the CWA. The best potential for dense fog will be across central
Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into
tomorrow morning. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Tomorrow afternoon, the surface ridge will
begin to move east of the area will modest WAA increasing. This will
allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. Saturday, the local
area will be under quasi-zonal flow aloft. A few shortwaves are
forecast to move into the area while will provide a few chances for
storms. The more vigorous of these shortwave is progged to move
through the area during the afternoon and evening hours in a
environment of 1500-2500J/Kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6Km shear
which will be capable of producing strong storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Additional shortwave will continue to move
into the area on zonal flow aloft through Sunday continuing shower
and thunderstorm chances. With PWATs in the 1.50-1.75" range and
several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be
possible. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the
local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that
will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS. This will
allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Monday. Monday night into Tuesday a upper level trough will move
from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This feature
will have a two pronged effect...first, it will flatten the upper
level ridge across the region. Secondly, it will force an attendant
slow moving cold front into the area. Current model solutions
suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area
on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move
through the area on zonal flow aloft. The temperature spread on
Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be wide with the cold front
draped across the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be
in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near
90 south. Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the
mid 80s south.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers have mostly cleared our area returning visibility to VFR
conditions. Winds are currently light out of the ENE and will
gradually shift out of the SE overnight with speeds picking up
to 5-10 kts after sunrise Friday. Visibility will begin to decrease
with TAF sites experiencing visibility reductions around 08Z. Fog is
possible at the TAF sites between 11-14Z with visibility forecast to
be reduced to 1-3SM (and 1/4SM at STJ).

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...IPC