St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS63 KEAX 142345
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and
  Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into
  Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across
  the far southern KEAX CWA.

- Much cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with the
  potential for frost by early Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1025mb high centered over the
Dakotas...while a stationary frontal boundary remains draped
from central Ohio southwestward to the Texas panhandle. Several
weak waves have been tracking along the front today, resulting
in scattered light showers across the southern half of the KEAX
CWA.

As a vigorous upper low evident on the latest water vapor
imagery over western Colorado pivots northeastward, surface
cyclogenesis will occur across northern Texas tonight...with the
low tracking into northern Indiana by Thursday evening. Rich
deep-layer moisture is currently in place as evidenced by NAM
precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches. As stronger
forcing approaches from the west, showers will become more
numerous later tonight into Thursday morning. CAMs have trended
slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only
scattered showers until after 09z/4am. Based on the
juxtaposition of strongest lift and deepest moisture, the most
widespread rainfall will focus between 09z/4am and 15z/10am.
While the strongest instability will remain further south in
closer proximity to the front, NAM MUCAPE values increase to
200-400J/kg...supporting a few rumbles of thunder. Once the
initial forcing lifts N/NE of the area, the rain will diminish
to scattered showers by late Thursday morning. Additional
rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the
Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the
Flood Watch.

Once the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull a
strong cold front through the area Thursday afternoon...resulting
in an end to the showers and introducing a much cooler airmass
for the end of the week. As Canadian high pressure builds
southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind
the departing front Thursday night into Friday. Friday morning
will be the windiest period with the 13z NBM indicating a 40-70%
chance of gusts greater than 30mph. After high temperatures
only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow
lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night. While
there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds,
confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early
Saturday morning. After that, the cool fall weather will
continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above
normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Deteriorating conditions are expected overnight and into
Thursday morning. At the beginning of the TAF period, anticipate
widespread MVFR CIGs and isolated areas of MVFR to IFR VIS where
light rain and mist are ongoing. Light rain coverage will expand
across the region overnight, resulting in IFR CIGs areawide and
increasing potential for MVFR to IFR VIS. Showers are expected
to wane during the daytime on Thursday with continued IFR CIGs
and light, variable winds. Some terminals, mainly around the
Kansas City metro and south, could potentially see CIGs reduced
to LIFR...however, confidence in timing and placement was too
limited for LIFR CIGs to be included in any particular TAF at
this time. By late afternoon, a cold front will begin to move in
from the WNW...behind this front, expect NW winds around 10 kt
gusting up to 25 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...Macko