St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXUS63 KEAX 022324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual Warm Up This Week, Gradual Increase in Humidity

- Storms Returns to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday...a few
  strong storms may be possible Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Today, a surface ridge of high pressure is building into the CWA.
In addition, a upper level ridge is extending from the southwestern
CONUS northeastward into the northern Plains. This leaves the local
area on the eastern periphery of this feature but is providing
modest height rises. This coupled with the relaxation of yesterday`s
CAA will allow highs to rise into the mid 80s. Tomorrow, the surface
ridge will slide east of the area with weak WAA getting underway. As
it does the upper ridge residing west of the area today will slide
eastward and extend from the southwestern CONUS into the central
Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will provide further height
rises across the area, and this, coupled with the weak WAA will
drive highs into the mid to upper 80s. Tomorrow night into Tuesday a
upper level trough will dig into the northern Plains. This will act
to flatten the upper level ridge and will force an attendant weak
cold front into the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Continued Weak
WAA ahead of this front on Tuesday will allow highs to warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the aforementioned cold front will sag
into the forecast area bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to
the northern CWA (40-75%). Showers are expected to diminish late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon but redevelopment is
forecast in the evening and is expected to continue thru the
overnight with most areas likely (50-80%) to receive precipitation.
A few strong storms may be possible with MUCAPE values between 1500-
2500J/Kg and effective sheer between 45-50kts. Highs Wednesday will
range from the upper 70 to lower 80s north where the cold front will
pass earlier in the day to the lower 90s south which will remain
ahead of the front. The latter portion of the forecast period
Thursday through Saturday will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with
weak shortwaves moving through the region making occasional
scattered convection possible through that stretch. A gradual
warming trend is expected through that period as well with highs
Thursday in the 80s before rising to the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the forecast
as high pressure moves across the area. Tomorrow, that high will
be east of the area and we`ll see winds becoming southeasterly
to southerly, but remain below 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB