St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS63 KEAX 100949
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild temperatures come to an end on Wednesday as a
cold front pushes into our region.

- Winds 15-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts Wednesday afternoon.

- Chances for a widespread freeze possible Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Current synoptic features, along with a surface high pressure center
to our south will promote for one more day of above normal
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, with light winds on
Tuesday. This is going to change as the jet stream to our north
begins to dig southward into our region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The jet digging to the south will promote the development
of a much more meridional pattern, with the trough strengthening,
and a ridge building to our west. As a result, the warm airmass that
we have been seeing, along with cold air advection in the Upper
Plains will allow for the development of a low pressure center to
begin developing to our north. The center of the low will continue
to deepen across portions of Iowa, and eventually move into Northern
Illinois by mid-day Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will rise
close to 60 degrees, with warmer temperatures for our southern
counties by midday, but will change as a cold front from the north
plows through in the afternoon hours. In addition, the tight
pressure gradient across Missouri will result in higher winds of 15-
20 kts, with localized gusts approaching 30 kts. Because of our
pressure gradient, we elected to include the NBM 90th percentile in
our forecast to account for higher wind chances. In terms of
precipitation, a low chance for a stray shower is possible,
especially for our far northeast counties. However, forcing and
moisture totals needed are aligned much better to our east. Winds
diminish during the late evening and overnight hours Wednesday into
Thursday, as the low continues to progress east.

Winds Thursday will continue to come from the north, and as a result,
cooler temperatures in the 40s and low 50s be the reality during the
day. Overnight Thursday, skies will be mostly clear, in which the
NBM models are giving high probabilities of temperatures below 32
degrees, especially in areas north of Interstate 70, and outside of
Kansas City proper. Cold air advection will remain on Friday, which
will help promote higher probabilities of a widespread freeze for
Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR and light variable winds prevail through the forecast period.
Patchy fog is possible (particularly at KSTJ) overnight, but not
expecting widespread dense fog so didn`t introduce fog in the TAFs.
Southeasterly winds pick back up to 5-10 kt tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bjork
AVIATION...Shaw