St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

963
FXUS63 KEAX 291930
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
230 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible (40-70% chance) Thursday
  night into Friday across portions of northeast Kansas and
  northern Missouri. Backbuilding storms could lead to localized
  flooding concerns.

- Additional showers and storms Friday evening through Saturday
  morning (30-50% chance south of I-70, 50-70% chance north of
  I-70). Rain chances generally decrease to about 20-30% by
  evening.

- Rainy start to next week areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

What has been generally zonal flow aloft will become increasingly
meridional over the coming days, leading to a more active period for
weather. A cold front has slipped southward throughout the morning.
Latest surface observations indicate this boundary now sits near the
Missouri River with temperatures roughly 3-5 degF cooler on the
north side of front. As for high temperatures today, we could see
about a 10 degF temperature difference between our northern and
southern tiers of counties. The front is expected to continue
sinking south throughout the afternoon and evening, becoming more
diffuse in the process. Isolated shower or storm development south
of the boundary this afternoon remains possible under WAA
conditions, but it seems such development would be quite the uphill
battle given poor shear and lackluster lapse rates. The arrival of
the cold front could inspire a brief shower or storm. Even so, I
would not expect anything remotely robust given the lack of upper-
level support. Shower and storm activity appears to be more likely
(40-70%) across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri beginning
later this evening and then continuing through the early portions of
the day on Friday. Continued low-level WAA will promote a region of
elevated instability (as much as 800 J/kg) in these areas by late
evening. Lift looks to be provided by an approaching shortwave with
several members of the guidance resolving a localized vortmax north
of the Missouri River around 06Z; roughly around this time is when
CAMs also begin to resolve scattered showers and storms. CAMs also
present a backbuilding scenario across far northeast Kansas into
northwest Missouri...with PWATs between 1.25-1.5", isolated flooding
may occur where showers/storms continuously move over the same area.

Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of
northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the day on Friday. Further
south, the cold front currently crawling through our CWA will lift
back north as a warm front in the afternoon/evening. This with an
approaching mid-level trough will reinvigorate rain chances for much
of the region Friday PM into Saturday AM (hourly PoPs about 40-70%).
Low-end rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day as
the mid-level trough continues its journey through the
Plains/Midwest. Generally along and west of the I-35 and I-49
corridors, these chances are closer to 20-30% given a low-level dry
layer and little upper-level support from the vacating mid-level
trough. Further into central Missouri, these rain chances are
slightly higher at 30-50% where the mid-level trough may still
retain some influence.

Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s. A deepening upper trough over the western CONUS will slide to
eastward over the weekend with its accompanying surface cyclone
moving into the Great Plains on Monday. This system will result in a
more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to
in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the
week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially).
Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the
Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2. We will need to monitor
potential instability corridors ahead of the  surface
low`s attendant cold front as these areas would have an inherently
higher risk for flooding due to convectively-driven high rainfall
rates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR cigs are fcst to persist thru 19Z-20Z before lifting
back to VFR conds with bkn-ovc cigs btn 3-5kft expected thru 03Z-
07Z. Aft 03Z-07Z...mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are expected with the
chc for a few -tsra btn 08Z-12Z which may produce ocnl MVFR cigs btn
1-2kft. Otrw...winds will generally be out of the ENE to E btn 5-
10kts thru the pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...73