St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS63 KEAX 262345
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
545 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of widespread fog with dense fog possible tomorrow
morning. The most favorable areas for dense fog seem to be east of I-
35, north of HWY-36.

- Near-record warmth expected today and Saturday. Cloud cover and
fog continues to lower confidence in the temperature forecast.

- Chances (20-70%) for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are forecast Saturday night and Sunday. No severe
anticipated. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a half an
inch.

- Brief snow showers or even sleet may occur Sunday
afternoon/evening (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front
moves through the area, but no impactful accumulations are expected.

- Windy conditions (25-35 mph wind gusts) are expected Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Wind chills on Sunday night and Monday
  morning will be near zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Another day of very warm conditions with highs ranging from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. A few spotty areas of fog may linger (mainly
for northeastern MO) through the afternoon hours, however impacts
are expected to be fairly minimal. Mid to low-level clouds will
gradually clear out this afternoon from southwest to northeast while
some upper level clouds (seen on a visible Geocolor satellite shot)
move in from the Great Plains Region this afternoon/evening. A few
records may be in trouble this afternoon as the southwestern half of
our CWA has clear skies.

The synoptic pattern is defined by broad mid to upper level ridging
across the U.S. At the surface, the system that brought a weak cold
front through the area tracks east/northeast into the Great Lakes
Region. As we transition into the late evening, a surface high will
track to the southeast towards IL reorienting our winds to the
south. As our temperatures cool to the crossover temperature and
winds weaken, this will set the stage for fog yet again. Widespread
fog is expected with dense fog possible across the area. The HREF
gives a 40-60% chance for visibilities less than a quarter-mile
extending as far south as Clinton (southern fringes of our CWA).
Models suggest the fog begins to burn off during the late morning
hours into the early afternoon, similar to the past few days.
Saturday will be the last day for widespread warm conditions as
highs range from the low 60s to low 70s. There is some uncertainty
concerning temperatures as a leading H700 shortwave, collocated with
a swathe of moisture, could result in fairly extensive cloud
coverage hindering the effects of daytime heating. This could keep
high temperatures just below record temperatures for tomorrow.

Our attention then shifts to late Saturday into Sunday with a stout
mid to upper level trough, moving east along the western
U.S./Canadian border, dipping into the lower 48. As it begins to
track south, it will deepen and push a robust surface cold front
towards/and through the area. There will be multiple hazards to note
in association with this front.

Showers and thunderstorms:

Late Saturday evening into the overnight hours southwesterly winds
out ahead of the boundary will result in a chance (20-40%) for light
rain showers. Isentropic ascent seen on the 300K surface suggests
widespread showers and storms across the area. Extended hi-res
models keep showers lingering through early Sunday morning. Into the
afternoon as the front moves through the area, it will then provide
lift for additional showers through the afternoon. There may also be
a few isolated thunderstorms as well given the ample shear and bits
of instability. No severe is anticipated as instability still
remains on the order of a few hundred (up to 400 J/kg) joules per
kilogram of MUCAPE. The most favorable areas for thunderstorms seem
to be east of I-35 with better chances to the east/southeast of our
area. Rainfall accumulations for Sunday stay under a half of an inch.

Wind gusts:

As the front moves through the area Sunday morning into the
afternoon, fairly windy conditions can be expected. Wind gusts
ranging from 25-35 mph can be expected as sounding show anywhere
from 30-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer. The LREF only gives a
20-40% chance of a few areas along the MO/KS border of reaching wind
gusts greater than 40 mph. When increased to wind gusts greater than
advisory level (45 mph), chances become virtually nonexistent. For
now, the need for headlines does not seem necessary, but it will be
fairly windy.

Light snow showers:

With the cold front ushering in a much colder air mass into Sunday
evening, there is a potential for a  few brief, light snow showers
primarily for areas north of HWY-36. A few model soundings indicate
the potential for a transition to sleet or ice pellets just before
the snow. Given the recently warm surface temperatures, any wintry
precip that falls on the backside of this front will most likely not
accumulate.

Cold temperatures:

Late Sunday into Monday morning on the backside of the cold front,
expect much colder temperatures. Early Monday lows will range in the
preteens to upper teens with single digit wind chills above and
below zero. Highs for Monday rebound to the low 20s to just below
freezing. This will be a remarkable ~30-40 degree difference in two
days.

For most of next week, expect roller coaster temperatures as they
fluctuate above and below seasonal averages. Tuesday highs warm up
much closer to seasonal averages. By Thursday, another mid to upper
level trough, moving through the Great Lakes Region, pushes a cold
front through the area returning us below seasonal averages.
Additionally, a high-amplitude mid to upper level ridge over the
western U.S. slowly tracks east, which suggests the potential for a
warm up heading into the weekend/early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Mostly VFR flight conditions at the beginning of the evening are
expected to deteriorate to IFR as fog and low stratus
redevelops. Timing on the redevelopment is uncertain as high
clouds generally along and south of I-70 will tend to slow
cooling, but areas north of a line from KSTJ to KMBY will likely
see IFR visibilities by 03-04Z. Once conditions deteriorate,
expect IFR stratus and/or fog to prevail into Saturday morning.
Flight conditions improve after 14-15Z. Light and variable flow
will turn to the southeast Saturday morning, and continue to
veer to the south-southwest by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...WFO EAX