St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS63 KEAX 091715
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The upper-level pattern is currently comprised of broad ridging
over the western CONUS and a trough positioned over the eastern
CONUS. The tropics are currently fairly active with 2 Pacific
storms, Rachel to the north and Simon to the south (more on
Simon later in the discussion), and Hurricane Isaias in the
Gulf. At the surface, a weak low-pressure system is moving
northeast across NE with a surface boundary lifting north
through central IA and northeastern MO. On the warm (south) side
of the boundary, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is present in
conjunction with 30 kts of deep layer shear. Storms have
initiated across central IA along this surface boundary and at
the nose of a 25-30 kt LLJ and have been producing marginally
severe hail over the past couple of hours (roughly 10p-1a).
Storm motions are generally southeast, which is parallel to the
boundary (and MUCAPE gradient). As storms approach the MO/IA
border, they will be moving into a less favorable environment
with less support for storm longevity. While the current
expectation is for storms to stay north and east of the CWA, the
MUCAPE gradient is currently situated through the far
northeastern corner of the CWA, so precipitation cannot be fully
ruled out, but severe weather is not expected to continue south
of the MO/IA border.

The unseasonable warmth that has been present over the past
couple of days is expected to continue with temperatures this
morning only expected to fall into the low 60s. The
aforementioned ridge over the western CONUS will slide east
today bringing mid-level height rises to the Central Plains
supportive of temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Areas in
central MO may even make a run at 90F. These values are 15-20
degrees above what is normal for this time of year (normal is a
high of 70F in Kansas City, 68F in Kirksville, and 70F in
Sedalia). These temperatures will persist through the weekend
and into early next week, thanks to the ridge stalling in its
eastward progression as Isaias gets absorbed into the flow.
Aside from some high-level clouds across central MO, the impacts
of Isaias will stay to the east of the CWA and the forecast
remains dry.

Model guidance diverges Tuesday through the end of the week
bringing uncertainty to the forecast. Hurricane Simon is
forecast to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico (near
Guadalajara) Saturday night into Sunday morning. The moisture
associated with this system will then continue north and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by mid-week.
However, there are discrepancies as to when exactly that plume
arrives. The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and
the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with
precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening,
while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring
the moisture into the area on Wednesday. When this remnant
moisture actually arrives will dictate temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday with the slower solution yielding less cloud cover
and warmer temperatures, while the faster solution points to
cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances. LREF
guidance currently indicates that there is a 40-60% chance of
exceeding 80F on Tuesday and Wednesday with a ~15 degree spread
from the 25th to 75th percentiles (73F vs 88F respectively for
the KC Metro). To summarize all of this, there is a plume of
moisture that is expected to overspread the Central Plains mid-
week next week. When it arrives, precipitation chances will
increase to 50-70%. Until it does arrive, temperatures will
remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the entire TAF period.
Throughout Friday afternoon, winds will be out of the SW at around
10kts, with occasional gusts, before diminishing in the evening to
around 5-10kts. Additionally this evening, winds will shift from SW
to S. Skies will remain clear, before high based clouds from the
east approach late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Bjork