St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

060
FXUS63 KEAX 191918
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
118 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of this week.

- Temperatures mid-next week will be 15 to 25 degrees above average.
Record highs may be approached or reached around the Christmas
holiday.

- No precipitation is expected through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A mostly quiet day anticipated for today with highs ranging from the
upper 30s to low 50s. In the upper levels, the trough that brought
us those stout winds yesterday continues its track to the east of
the area, through the Great Lakes Region. As a result, northwesterly
flow aloft remains over the area. A broad, mid to upper level ridge
will move in behind the trough, however, shortwaves moving through
Canada will work to flatten the ridge resulting in a more zonal flow
aloft heading into the evening. At the surface, a high pressure
remains over the south-central U.S. with a surface low traversing
through Saskatchewan, towards Manitoba. This low has produced a
pressure gradient just strong enough for occasional wind gusts
ranging from 20-30 mph through the afternoon/early evening. This,
coupled with relative humidity values dropping into the 25-35% range
has led to increased fire weather concerns for today. However, with
sustained winds struggling to reach 20 mph, no fire weather products
will be necessary for today. Even still, any burning should be
closely monitored. Warm air advection from southerly winds will keep
low temperatures from bottoming out tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Early morning lows will range from just below freezing
(north/northeastern MO) to upper 30s (KC Metro and areas south).

A weak surface low develops near the eastern SD/NE border, dragging
a dry cold front through the area early tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. With colder air lagging behind the front, it will have
almost no impact on high temperatures for tomorrow. Highs for the
start of the weekend will be a few degrees warmer than today,
ranging from the low 40s to mid 50s. Now, as colder air pushes in
behind the front Saturday evening into the overnight hours, this
will allow low temperatures for Sunday morning to be 8-10 degrees
colder than Saturday morning. Early morning lows for Sunday will
range in the low 20s to low 30s. Temperatures rebound nicely for
Sunday afternoon as broad mid to upper level ridging begins to build
into the area. Highs will range in the upper 30s to low 50s.

For the start of the work-week, the mid to upper level ridge
continues to build into the area which will keep us warm and dry
through most of next week. The warmest temperatures of the week will
come during a 2-day stretch including the day before Christmas and
Christmas day. Highs seem to range from the low 60s to low 70s which
happens to be 15-25 degrees above seasonal averages. A few
temperature records could be threatened around Christmas with
temperatures this high. As far as precip, extended guidance
continues to suggest dry conditions through next week due to the
influence of the mid to upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period.
Southerly winds will pick up heading into the afternoon,
gusting to around 20-25 kts. Winds will very gradually weaken
going into the overnight/predawn hours. A stout low-level jet
sets up over the area resulting in low-level wind shear as winds
around 3kft will be 30 kts stronger than winds at the surface.
Winds shift to the north/northeast tomorrow morning with the
passage of a dry cold front. Winds are anticipated to gust
around 15-20 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier