St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS63 KEAX 301114
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the mid to upper 80s (record highs) with southerly
  wind gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon.

- Cold front will move through the region from northwest to
  southeast through the daytime hours tomorrow.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday
  evening through Saturday.

    - Best chance for showers and storms (90 to 100%) will be
      Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" is likely, with locally
      higher amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Current H5 analysis shows an upper trough across the northern
portions of the Intermountain West toward the Canadian border,
with zonal westerly flow aloft across Kansas and Missouri. A
surface trough is analyzed through central Nebraska into western
Kansas and into the OK and TX panhandles, which has kept low
level winds elevated and out of the SSW this morning.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the mid to
upper 80s, which should shatter existing record highs for March
30th. Sustained south southwesterly winds this afternoon should
be on the order of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, which
should help continue to usher in some modest moisture return.
There will be a slight chance (20 to 30%) for showers and storms
to develop late tonight across far SE Nebraska into SW Iowa,
potentially moving into NW Missouri overnight tonight into early
Tuesday morning.

The aforementioned upper trough will continue to
traverse eastward along the US/Canada border into the Upper
Mississippi Valley Tuesday morning, sending a cold front toward
the region from the northwest. Most recent CAM guidance suggests
the front moves into NW Missouri sometime late Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon and through the KC metro mid to
late Tuesday afternoon. Relatively strong convective inhibition
will likely keep convection from initiating along and ahead of
the front Tuesday afternoon, but post frontal showers and
storms are possible to likely Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

It seems probable that the front will likely stall out
somewhere across the northern Ozark Plateau late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, with this front potentially waffling north
and south across the region into Thursday. By Wednesday
afternoon, another mid/upper trough is projected to come across
the Southern Rockies and into the south central Plains, ejecting
to the northeast across the central CONUS Thursday
morning/afternoon. Increased forcing for ascent from the
approaching trough along with the stalled east/west oriented
boundary over the region and continued moisture advection into
the region increasing PWATs into the 1.5" range will likely
generate widespread showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
Wednesday morning into Thursday morning, with 90 to 100% PoPs
CWA wide from 1 PM Wednesday through 7 AM Thursday. With modest
CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg (tall and skinny CAPE profiles)
and 30 knots of deep layer shear, cannot rule out a few better
organized updrafts on Wednesday afternoon/evening, which has
prompted SPC to throw eastern KS and far western MO into a
marginal risk for severe storms. Showers/storms should generally
come to an end from west to east on Thursday afternoon as the
mid/upper trough axis exits the region to the east, but lower
end PoPs (20 to 50%) continue through Thursday night into Friday
morning.

Following this, models continue to suggest a deep, closed
mid/upper low and accompanying trough entering the central
Plains on Friday evening into late Friday night, ejecting to
the east northeast into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on
Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface low should slide from western
Kansas into central Iowa Friday into early Saturday morning,
with a trailing cold front extending south southwestward from
the surface low moving west to east through the region. This
would bring relatively high chances (60%) for yet another round
of showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon into
Saturday, exiting the region from west to east by Saturday
afternoon/evening. With 40 to 50 knots of WSW flow at 500 mb
overspreading the region on Friday afternoon/evening along with
moderate instability, there may be a threat for strong to
severe storms.

With the threat for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday into Saturday, current forecast
rainfall totals range from around 2" across NW Missouri to as
high as 4"+ toward the Ozark Plateau in the southeastern
portions of the CWA. Most recent NBM guidance gives MCI an 83%
and 37% probability for rainfall to exceed 1" and 2",
respectively. At Sedalia, these probabilities increase to 87%
and 58%, respectively, with a 30% probability for rainfall to
exceed 3". Despite the potentially substantial rainfall totals,
the rain should fall across a long enough period of time that
flash flooding concerns are relatively low at this time (only
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC on Wednesday night
into Thursday). However, the ECWMF EFI and SOT does suggest the
potential for an unusual rainfall event Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Flooding will be possible on some of the
faster responding creeks, streams, and rivers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with winds varying from south
southwesterly at 12 knots gusting to 20 knots (KC metro
terminals) to less than 10 knots (STJ). SSW winds 12 to
15 knots gusting to 22 knots at the KC metro terminals this
morning and early afternoon should increase a bit more by mid
afternoon and continue through the remainder of the period,
with gusts up to 25 to 27 knots. At STJ, winds should be a bit
lighter than the KC metro terminals, with gusts finally
increasing to 26 knots by late tonight. VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
CLIMATE...BT