St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS63 KEAX 271746
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1146 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less through 9AM
  for most of the forecast area except west central Missouri,
  most of the KC Metro, and east central Kansas.

- Well above normal conditions expected one last day today.

- Chance (30-80%) for scattered to numerous showers and isolated
  thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday. No severe weather
  anticipated. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a half
  an inch.

- Brief snow showers or even sleet may occur Sunday afternoon/evening
  (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front moves
  through the area, but no impactful accumulations are expected.

- Windy conditions (30-40 mph wind gusts) are expected Sunday
  into Sunday night. Wind chills on Sunday night and Monday will
  range from 5 above zero to ten below zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Early this morning, a warm front is evident just south and west of
the forecast area. With the CWA north of this front, fog has been
advecting into much of the area. Consequently, a dense fog advisory
is in effect for all but extreme west central Missouri and east
central Kansas thru 15Z for areas of fog reducing visibility to a
1/4 mile or less. This warm front will lift northeast thru the CWA
today again allowing temperatures to rise well above normal. Highs
will range from the upper 50s across the northeastern CWA where
morning fog may persist and the warm front will be later to pass to
the mid 60s to lower 70s along and south of the Missouri River.
Tonight a mid-level trough will move into the Plains forcing a cold
front towards the area. Showers will develop out ahead of this front
with a few thunderstorms also possible as elevated instability on
the order of 300-500J/Kg of CAPE will be available. The cold front
will move through the area on Sunday packing some very strong CAA
behind the front with NW winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. This will usher
in much colder conditions. Highs Sunday will occur in the morning in
the 50s and 60s but temperatures by late afternoon will fall into
the mid 20s to mid 30s. Showers will continue into Sunday associated
with he cold front and there may be a brief transition over to snow
as the system exits however, accumulations of a dusting across
northern Missouri are the most that is forecast. Strong CAA is
expected to continue into Sunday night allowing temperatures to fall
into the teens with wind chill values ranging from 5 above zero to
ten below zero. Cold air advection will weaken on Monday as surface
high pressure approaches the area from the northern/central Plains.
However, a cold day is expected Monday with highs in the 20s.

The extended forecast looks dry with generally seasonable
temperatures. Surface high pressure will quickly traverse the area
Monday night with radiational cooling allowing lows to again drop
back into the low to mid teens. However, by Tuesday, the surface
ridge will shift south of the area allowing modest WAA to develop
returning highs to near seasonal normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Wednesday, weak surface high pressure will be in control under
weakening northwest flow aloft. This will aid in high rising into
the upper 30s to upper 40s. Wednesday night a quick moving trough
will move through the Great Lakes. This will force a dry cold
frontal passage through the CWA dropping highs back into the mid 20s
(north) to upper 30s (south) for Thursday. Surface high pressure
will build back into the area Thursday night into Friday holding
highs generally in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Conditions across most of the area are anticipated to continue
improving through the afternoon hours. A few locations north of
HWY-36 may keep reduced visibilities into the afternoon. Winds
will shift more southerly/southwesterly heading into the
evening. A cold front will bring a chance for showers just after
midnight tonight. Northwesterly wind gusts ranging from 25-35
kts are anticipated during the late morning/early afternoon
hours Sunday on the backside of the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     021>025-030>033-039-040.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Collier