St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

797
FXUS63 KEAX 050402
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storms possible tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Another round of showers/storms possible Wednesday afternoon
  and Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few storms may be
  strong, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall also possible.

- Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Current H5 analysis shows mid/upper troughing across the
Northern Plains and encroaching on the Upper Midwest, with a
band of 40+ knot H5 winds extending from northern Colorado into
NE Minnesota and western Ontario. At the surface, a cold front
is analyzed northeast to southwest through Iowa, into extreme
SE Nebraska and further into SW Kansas, where a weak surface
cyclone has developed. At this time, showers and a few
thunderstorms are ongoing, primarily north of the cold front
(elevated), across portions of eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa. Meanwhile, south of the front across our CWA, temperatures
have risen into the upper 80s as of 2 PM, with afternoon Max Ts
expected to reach the lower to even mid 90s (south of the KC
metro) by later this afternoon. The front is likely to stall out
and become essentially stationary by later this
afternoon/evening across NW Missouri into NE Kansas. While
stronger mid level flow and better forcing for ascent should
remain north of the front, cannot completely rule out a strong
thunderstorm or two late afternoon into early evening toward the
Iowa border thanks to a moderately unstable air mass in place
along and south of the front, which has prompted SPC to include
northern Missouri within a marginal risk for severe storms.
However, CAM guidance has trended toward keeping convection
primarily north of the Iowa border. By late tonight into the
overnight period. a vort max currently over Colorado, pushes
eastward toward our region, and along with a modest low level
jet, should help develop showers and thunderstorms north of the
front across SE Nebraska into SW Iowa. Once again, most of this
activity should remain north of our CWA, but may sneak southward
into northern Missouri.

As we head into tomorrow, another mid level vort maxima moves
into the region as broad mid/upper troughing across the north
central CONUS digs a little further south into the region, with
the stalled front still in place across the CWA, which should
help generate isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow
morning into early afternoon, with another round of convection
possible late tomorrow evening into early Thursday morning. With
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, decent mid level flow
allowing for 30 to 35 knots of effective shear, and 1500 to
2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, a few storms could be strong to severe.
Additionally, with PWATs in the 1.8" to 2" range and deep warm
cloud depths, locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be
possible. There will be yet another chance for showers and
thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning.

By Friday and into the weekend, the western ridge re-establishes
itself, with a 597 dam H5 high developing over the Four Corners
region, yielding increasing mid level heights over our CWA.
Afternoon highs should return to the 90s across the CWA for
Saturday and Sunday, with max heat indices ranging from the
upper 90s to the mid 100s, with generally dry weather likely.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conds are expected with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds btn 10-15kft
expected thru 23z-01z. The exception will be fm 18Z-22Z when a
pd of lgt tsra will be poss at the TAF sites. There will be the
potential for another round of storms at the TAF sites aft
23Z-01Z where cigs with be ovc btn 3-5kft and vis may be reduced
to 5-6SM in heavier showers. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be
out of the ESE/SE (except STJ which will be out of the NE) btn
5-10kts thru 09Z-11Z aft which they will be lgt and vrb. Late in
the TAF pd winds will become NE btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...73