St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS63 KEAX 021723
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooler, dry, and relief from humidity today and Wednesday

* Southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and increasing humidity
  begins to return Thursday onward.

* Shower and storm chances return as early as Thursday
  evening/night (eastern Kansas / western Missouri),
  overspreading the area to end the week and through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A welcome quiet overnight and early morning compared to previous
nights has prevailed across the area. This largely thanks to a
combination of continuing gradual mid-upper level height rises
(general subsidence) and an expansive area of surface high pressure
descending out of Ontario and into the Great Lakes region. The
latter of which has turned surface winds out of the E/NE and begun
to advect in noticeably drier/less humid air. While there remains
fairly robust convection (including a few warnings) over portions of
central/eastern Nebraska and Kansas, expectations remain for that
activity to remain outside of the CWA proper given orientation of
steering winds and a generally less supportive environment. Of quick
note though, convection across south-central into southeast Kansas
has developed into an MCV. While its trajectory should keep it
predominantly south of the CWA, it is not out of the question for
some increased cloud cover and a shower/non-severe storm or two to
develop should it clip southern areas of the CWA. For now, it is a
wait and see before any substantial deviations from current/ongoing
forecast for southern/southwest areas. Otherwise, today should see
increasingly comfortable conditions advect in from the east with
falling dew points and temperatures a handful of degrees cooler
today in the lower 80s.

Quiet and comfortable conditions, generally a repeat of today,
continues through Wednesday as mid-upper level ridging prevails and
the aforementioned surface high drops down through the Ohio
Tennessee River Valleys. The most notable difference may be the
gradual return of southerly winds through the day. By Thursday,
surface high establishes itself over the SE US and mid-Atlantic
states and mid-upper level ridge shifts eastward. This allows
general and deep warm air and moisture advection to begin to
overspread the area. Highs climb back into the mid to upper 80s
Thursday with dew points beginning to climb back into the lower 60s.
Synoptic guidance depicts precipitation chances returning by
Thursday evening as the dry air mass moistens and subtle shortwaves
are depicted within the now SW/S mid-upper level flow. Deterministic
guidance begins to vary in the timing and strength of various
shortwaves moving through the more zonal northern stream and the
broad/weakening southern stream trough/cutoff low. This results in
virtually persistent NBM PoPs >30-40 percent moving in Thursday
night and through the weekend. Suffice it to say there will likely
be periods/rounds of showers of storms from Thursday evening
into/through the weekend, but not as persistent as the current
forecast PoPs might suggest at first glance. Related, temperatures
into the mid 80s are a reasonable expectation during this period,
but with deviations warmer/cooler based on precip timing and
duration.

Synoptic guidance shows more substantial differences/deviations into
next week, but a general takeaway appears to be more amplified mid-
upper level ridging (additional warming) returning by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals. Residual cloud cover
from morning convection will persist at terminals through the
day, with winds remaining easterly at 5-10 kts. Denser cloud
cover is expected to remain through the forecast period, with
winds shifting out of the southeast tomorrow morning between
12-14z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...SPG