St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS63 KEAX 022346
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong/Severe storms continue in northern MO through the
  evening.

- Windy conditions continue through the evening, with wind gusts
  as high as 35-40 mph areawide.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into
  Friday evening, with all severe hazards possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Presently, the surface low is situated over northern MO, and
continues to lift towards the northeast. Its associated warm
front continues to push northward, while the cold front moves
through northwestern MO. Thunderstorms have initiated along the
boundary, with additional showers/storms developing within the
warm sector in northern MO. The warm sector environment remains
favorable for discrete, strong cells in the short term, with
effective shear around 30-35 kts and adequate MUCAPE of around
1500 J/kg. The primary concern with these storms is damaging
wind and hail, but a tornado can`t be ruled out, as low level
rotation remains favorable with 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH.
However, greater potential for a tornado remains further
east/northeast. Thunderstorm potential will remain for
northwestern and northern MO through sunset, before decreasing
going into the overnight. Beyond the severe threat, winds remain
strong, with gusts up to 40-45 mph being reported at sites
across the forecast area. Gusts will begin to die down around
sunset, and winds will gradually calm through the night as the
pressure gradient eases with the departure of the surface low.

Tomorrow prompts the greatest concern for the short term
forecast period, with the potential for severe weather during
the afternoon and into the evening. An upper level trough is
progged to dig across the northern Plains, with a coincident
surface low developing off the lee of the Rockies during the
early hours of Friday. As this trough progresses eastward
through the day, the surface low will maintain a similar track
as the low today, lifting across northwestern MO with its
attendant warm front surging northward. Also similar to today,
there is the potential for development of discrete cells in the
warm sector, especially across north/north-central MO out ahead
of the cold front. The severe threat in this area remains
conditional, as greater cloud cover forecasted across the
central US at this time decreases confidence in cap erosion and
building instability. However, if storms are able to initiate,
they will form in an environment with steep mid-level lapse
rates (7-8.5 C/km), strong low-level SRH (150-300 m2/s2), and
ample effective shear (40-50 kts). CAMs currently have forecast
CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg for northern MO, with some CAMs like
the NAM forecasting CAPE as high as 3000 J/kg. Going into the
afternoon tomorrow, will have to keep an eye out on the
mesoscale environment to monitor any storm development, as
primary hazards with these discrete storm modes would be
damaging wind, severe hail, and tornadoes. The primary threat
for severe weather will occur around sunset, as the cold front
invigorates the development of a line of thunderstorms that will
push eastward from eastern KS through MO into the evening. The
passage of this line will remain brief enough that widespread
heavy rainfall is not a concern. However, thunderstorms
producing heavy rainfall could create some localized flash
flooding, especially in areas that saw significant rainfall
yesterday and urban areas. With this line, the primary hazard
will be damaging winds, with additional concerns for severe hail
and some tornadoes embedded within the primary line.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The upper level trough and coincident surface low will lift
towards the Great Lakes as surface high pressure builds in going
into Saturday. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper
50s with northwesterly winds that will persist through Sunday.
Conditions will remain clear until Monday evening, where low end
chances for precipitation (20-40%) pop up with weak forcing from
an upper level trough. Amplified ridging will follow on Tuesday,
before the next chances for precipitation increase Wednesday
evening through Thursday with an oncoming shortwave trough
(30-60%). Temperatures will remain around seasonally normal
through the long term, warming through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Westerly winds are expected to gradually diminish this evening,
becoming variable and light overnight before shifting to
southeasterly by early morning. The timing of the wind speed
increase should diminish any fog concerns at the four terminals,
however, it is possible that fog could be of concern around
KIRK early tomorrow morning (10Z-13Z timeframe). Low CIGs should
build into the area tomorrow morning resulting in IFR conditions
at all four terminals through the day. Winds are also expected
to become southerly through the morning and increase in
magnitude with gusts up to 30 kts possible through the
afternoon.

Showers and storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon
across southeastern NE, northwestern MO, and northeastern KS
before advancing east/southeastward across the area. They will
impact the terminals late tomorrow afternoon creating heavy
rainfall and reduced visibility concerns. The exact timing is
still a little uncertain, thus have opted for a PROB30 group
rather than a TEMPO. As the event gets closer, a TEMPO will
almost certainly be needed. A cold front will pass through the
area with the storms resulting in a wind shift to northwesterly,
but confidence in this occurring by 00Z is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ008-016-017-
     024-025-032-033.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...Carothers