St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS63 KEAX 191053
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions Friday
and Saturday. Perhaps some early morning storms Saturday.

- Summer starts with rains Saturday Night and Sunday as a strong
  storm system approaches from the northwest. Heavy rains and
  stronger wind gusts are the main threats with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Broad area of high pressure roughly centered over MO early this
morning. Above the surface, a northwesterly flow pattern has
developed, and this will be an issue for the second half of the
weekend. Till then, expect quiet weather for today with highs in the
mid 80s.

Tonight, moisture will start to increase across the region,
especially just west over KS. This increase is in response to a
deeper southerly flow developing ahead of a surface low forming just
east of the Rockies. A precipitable water gradient forms from near
the central NE/KS border southeast into SW MO. We could see some
isolated showers/storms develop in eastern KS/western MO along this
gradient Saturday afternoon. Chances for severe weather are pretty
low with this first wave Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Saturday night that plume of moisture more fully works its way into
our forecast area. In addition, we should see a shortwave trough
travel within that northwest flow aloft to bring a complex of
showers and storms through the area late Saturday night and into
Sunday. Precipitable waters rise above 1.75", above the 90th
percentile for this time of year. In addition, we could see some
back building of storms along the southern edge of the complex, as a
low-level jet of 30 knots maintains itself for much of the day
Sunday. The combination of those two elements means a better chance
for heavy rain rates and flood potential. The Extreme Forecast Index
pegs a highly anomalous rain forecast along with a high shift of
tails, indicative of higher end potential in the Euro ensembles
(12Z). It`s area of concern is east to west across northern MO, with
a fairly tight gradient to the I-70 corridor. Thus we`ve coordinated
a Flood Watch for roughly that corridor north for Saturday Night and
Sunday.

Rain chances linger a little into Sunday night before high pressure
builds in again from the north and allows us to dry out to start the
next work week. Blended model solution holds off on additional rains
until a similar looking system develops Thursday. Temps cool a
little below normal behind the Sunday system and we edge closer to
normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Expect light and variable winds most of the day with high
pressure right overhead. This afternoon we should see a general
south to southeasterly wind at each site before winds become
more variable again. Expecting VFR conditions...but early
Saturday morning could have some showers and storms at the
terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040.
KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     KSZ025-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM...Sharp
AVIATION...Sharp