St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

910
FXUS63 KEAX 122050
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
350 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm temperatures tomorrow, with increasing chances
  (60-80%) for showers/storms by tomorrow evening. Primary
  hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and
  damaging winds.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before
  rising again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Windy conditions continue across the area today, with a surface low
over eastern South Dakota and a surface high off the Gulf Coast
enhancing the pressure gradient over much of the central CONUS.
Gusts are expected to cap out around 35-40 mph under a well-mixed
boundary layer through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Temperature-wise, it is very hot (for October), with daytime highs
hovering around the high 80s/low 90s under strong, sustained WAA at
the lowest levels of the atmosphere. As the surface low continues
progressing off towards the northeast, a cold front (presently over
southeastern NE) is projected to sag down across northwest
MO/northeast KS through the overnight. Along the boundary, ongoing
moist advection could contribute to isolated/scattered showers,
especially across northwest MO. However, these probabilities remain
on the lower end (~10-15%). Global guidance has progressively
shifted its solution for the cold front southward, aligning better
with short term guidance and increasing confidence in a cooler
temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS.
Highs in the high 70s/low 80s will be a stark contrast to the high
80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature
forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices
look to hover around the triple digits. South of the boundary,
sustained south/southwesterly winds will transport warm, moist air
across much of the forecast area, with dewpoints rising into the low
70s. This will contribute to a corridor of moderately unstable air
(MUCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg) developing during the daytime. By the
afternoon, there is a low (15-30%) for showers/storms to develop as
the cap gradually erodes. However, the greatest chances (60-80%)
reside during the evening, when a strengthening LLJ and shortwave
trough to the west invigorates synoptic-scale ascent. Effective bulk
shear remains strong around 40-50 kts during this time period, which
favors the development of strong/severe storms. However, mid-level
lapse rates remain marginal at around 6.5 degC/km. The most
favorable corridor for severe development will be for areas
along/south of the boundary, with threats for damaging wind and hail
up to quarters in the strongest storms. The severe threat will
diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated
MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight
period. Also of note is enhanced PWATs with the environment,
increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train
over the same locations.

Convective activity will help to push the boundary further south on
Wednesday, but guidance continues to deviate on exactly how far
south the boundary will sag. Recent CAMs indicate varied solutions
on the continuation of shower/storm activity during the
morning/early afternoon on Wednesday. Depending on the longevity of
this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day,
and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a
continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday.
However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable
corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the
risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

PoPs continue through at least Thursday before an upper-level trough
situated over the Western CONUS lifts towards the Great Lakes and
synoptic high pressure builds in behind it. A strong cold front will
drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week,
significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much
cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few
days. Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows
in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence
in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area. Through the
remainder of the weekend, guidance generally agrees on the gradual
progression of an upper-level ridge eastward over the central CONUS,
with surface high pressure sliding off towards the OH Valley and
shifting winds out of the south. With this shift of winds towards
the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the
forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR prevailing through the period. Widespread gusts around 25-30
kts has been observed across the forecast area, and will persist
through 0z tonight, where they will drop to around 20-25 kts
before 6z. Some potential for LLWS with lightening sustained
winds and a passing LLJ overnight, but have elected to keep
mentions out of this forecast issuance. Else, no significant
aviation impacts expected until after the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG