St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS63 KEAX 060858
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
358 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and less humid to start the week.

- Thunderstorms return to the forecast later Wednesday and
  Thursday along with warmer temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

High clouds have stuck around through most of the night and have
limited the fog formation over the eastern portion of the areas.
We do currently have a Dense Fog Advisory out until 8 AM for
areas mainly east of Highway 65, but may end up cancelling it
early if fog doesn`t form in the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, temperatures overnight have been in the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the area and winds have remained light. Today
will be sunny with highs in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and light northeasterly winds just under 10 mph.
Tonight`s forecast will feature lows in the mid 60s with light
winds once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with high pressure
building over us through mid-week. Highs will gradually warm
into the lower 90s by Wednesday with heat index values in the
upper 90s. Though, Thursday will be the warmest day in the long
term period with heat index values in the lower 100s especially
for areas along and south of I-70. Luckily a cold front sweeps
through the area on Friday to bring clouds/rain and cool down
temperatures and dewpoints just a bit going into next weekend.

Rain chances return Wednesday night with a possible MCS-type of
structure moving through the area ahead of the stronger trough
that`s anticipated on Thursday night. Not seeing any early
warning signs for severe weather with the system moving through
on Thursday night, but we could see some marginally severe
storms with that with the main hazards being heavy rain and
wind which would be typical for an MCS. The better chances for
severe weather look to be on Thursday night as a warm front
lifts through the area, stalls out over central MO, then the
cold front moves through on Saturday. That system should have
the better lift associated with it and may be enough to spawn
severe weather. This theory is also backed up by the CIPS/CSU
machine learning severe probability outlook which does have the
area shaded for a 10-15% chance of severe weather for Thursday
into Friday. SPC has not outlooked us for anything at this time,
for Thursday or Friday, so we`ll have to wait and see how these
systems evolve as we get later into the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

TAF sites are currently VFR and will remain there for the few
hours. There may be MVFR conditions occurring near 10z due to
patchy fog and lowered visibilities under 5 SM. If patchy fog
does occur, VFR returns around 13z and northeasterly winds will
be light under 10 knots throughout the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ017-024-
     025-032-033-039-040-045-046.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria