St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KEAX 231122
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible to likely late this
  afternoon into late evening as a cold front moves through the
  region from west to east.

- Initial storms later this afternoon across far NW Missouri and
  NE and eastern KS may pose a threat for relatively discrete
  storms capable of all severe hazards.

- Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorm by later
  this evening, with damaging wind gusts becoming the primary
  hazard. However, cannot rule out a couple brief tornadoes.

- Active weather pattern is likely to continue through the
  weekend and into Monday. Strong to severe storms will be
  possible on Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night and again
  on Monday.

- Total rainfall accumulations from today through Monday could
  approach 3 to 4 inches across the region. This could yield
  some flooding concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a mid/upper low centered over NE
Montana with associated long wave troughing across much of the
western CONUS. A 45+ knot H5 jet is analyzed rounding the base
of the trough across the Desert Southwest, across the Front
Range, and into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a 987 mb surface
low is analyzed near the North Dakota/Manitoba border, with a
trailing cold extending southward from the northern into the
central Plains, linking with a secondary surface low in west
central KS, and a dryline extending to the south southwest into
the TX Panhandle.

A stratus deck remains in place this morning across the western
two thirds of the CWA, and some drizzle may be possible later
this morning with subtle lift through the moist boundary layer.
Continued moisture return has dew points residing in the upper
50s to as high as 60 degrees as of 3 AM, with southerly winds
gusting as high as 25 mph. Thanks to the cloud cover, the
increased moisture, and the gusty winds, temperatures have not
dropped much overnight tonight compared to where they were
yesterday afternoon and evening.

As we head through the day today, the western trough will
progress eastward into the High Plains, with the 50+ knot H5
jet moving further eastward - rounding the base of the trough
across New Mexico into the TX Panhandle and curving northward
through KS/NE and into the eastern portions of the Northern
Plains and western portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley,
with the cold front further approaching from the west northwest.
This will yield increased southwesterly deep layer flow over
the CWA by later this afternoon, with this increasing further by
late this evening. Strong southerly low level flow should develop
out ahead of these features across our CWA this afternoon, with
gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Continued moisture advection should
send dew points into the lower 60s (perhaps even mid 60s across
the KC metro and points south and west) by mid afternoon. Cloud
cover appears likely to hang around through much of the
afternoon hours, which should limit surface heating a bit, with
afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for most locations.

06z CAMs suggests primarily low-level-jet-driven elevated
showers and storms may be possible later this morning across NW
Missouri, moving to the east through the remainder of the
morning hours and into early afternoon. The main show looks to
begin around 4 pm, with convective initiation along the cold
front across SE Nebraska and to the south southwest toward
Salina. Storms may stay discrete or semi discrete for a little
bit, but with deep layer flow mostly parallel to the front,
storms should grow upscale relatively quickly as the approach
our CWA. By around 6 pm, the 6z HRRR shows storms knocking on
the door of far NW Missouri, with storms continuing to congeal
into a well developed squall line by around 7 pm from NW
Missouri to the southwest into eastern portions of WFO Topeka`s
CWA. These storms should move west northwest to east southeast
through the evening hours, making it through the KC metro
sometime between 8 pm and 11 pm, and then likely continuing to
weaken as they head further east through the remainder of the
CWA into late evening and the early overnight period.

Now let`s talk about hazards. Instability looks to be maximized
along and slightly ahead of the front mid to late afternoon
across far SE Nebraska/NW Missouri/eastern Kansas, with the 00z
HREF suggesting above 2000 J/kg of SB CAPE. This will be paired
with around 40 knots of deep layer shear, steep mid level lapse
rates, and cyclonically curved hodographs in the low levels.
This will support a supercell threat, at least initially,
capable of all hazards, including very large hail and a few tornadoes.
Areas within our CWA that will have the best chance for this
looks to be far NW Missouri/NE Kansas in the 5 to 7 pm time
frame, and perhaps further south across the other KS counties in
our CWA, although by the time storms reach those locations
(Leavenworth/Wyandotte/Johnson/Miami/Linn), storms will likely
have grown upscale into a line with only some embedded
supercellular features possible. Once the storms have congealed
into a well defined line of storms, damaging wind gusts will
become the primary hazard, and the 6z HRRR even does suggest the
threat for some bowing segments. In addition, 0-3 km bulk shear
should be strong enough to support QLCS mesovortices,
especially if we are able to get surges or bowing segments
within the line. Locally moderate rainfall may be possible, as
well, but the system looks progressive enough to limit the
threat of flash flooding.

The cold front should completely push through the CWA by Friday
morning, with Friday afternoon looking dry with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s and 10 mph northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Active pattern remains in place into and through the weekend as a
compact shortwave is expected to move though the southern stream. As
this shortwave trough approaches, storm chances look to return
by Saturday evening into Saturday night, primarily for western
portions of the region. A more substantial threat arrives
Sunday and Sunday night/overnight as the main shortwave and
associated surface low moves into the Plains. Prevailing track
around KS/OK border area, lifting additional moisture and warm
sector through the area Sunday and likely yields some elevated
non severe showers/storms as the warm front lifts northward.
Surface low approaches Sunday evening and overnight, including
continued depictions of area of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and jet
streak nosing in yielding 40 to 50 knots of mid/upper flow. This
overnight timing is not typically particularly conducive for
severe weather, but broad lift with shortwave trough and jet
position are of note. Any convection in this environment may
yield a large hail or damaging wind threat, especially if it
can sustain into Monday daytime as the system continues to push
to the east northeast. The most recent SPC Day 4 through 8
outlook has most of the CWA within a 15% probability for severe
weather for Sunday into Sunday night, with 15% to 30%
probability for severe weather on Monday (30% toward Central
Missouri). Another item to keep an eye on would be the
potential for flooding, as with rainfall tonight, and then
additional chances Saturday night and especially Sunday night
into Monday, total rainfall through this time period could
approach 3 to 4 inches across a fairly widespread area, with
isolated higher amounts possible.

By Monday night the synoptic pattern is projected to become
more zonal. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest
along with a southward sagging boundary may bring another chance
for showers and storms to the area on Wednesday. Temperatures
should be relatively close to seasonal normals for Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Currently MVFR CIGs at the terminals with around 15 knot
southerly winds gusting up to 25 to 30 knots. These conditions
should generally continue through the morning and afternoon
hours. A cold front will approach the region from the west by
late afternoon into early evening. A line of storms is likely to
develop ahead of this front, with this line moving through STJ
in the 00z to 02z time frame, and moving through the KC metro
terminals in the 01z to 03z time frame. Westerly wind gusts up
to 45 knots may be possible along the leading edge of the line,
as well as periods of moderate to heavy rain yielding VIS
reductions. VFR conditions should return after the storms pass,
although some broken mid level clouds may linger into Friday
morning. Winds should decrease behind the front, turning
southwesterly initially and finally northwesterly by Friday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...BMW