St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

011
FXUS63 KEAX 131130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures swing below normal for the weekend with sub
  freezing lows tonight into Monday (and Tuesday for central and
  eastern MO).

     - A hard freeze is expected early Saturday morning as lows dip
       into the 20s.

- Temperatures warm back above seasonal averages mid to late
  next week.

- Forecast remains dry through much of the period with the next
  substantial chance for rainfall being next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a trough ridge trough pattern
east to west across the central CONUS. The sinusoidal nature of the
overall flow is a broad contributor to the rollercoaster ride of
temperatures that are expected through the period. Northerly flow
continues to dominate the short term forecast with cool Canadian air
advecting into the region. High temperatures only look to reach the
upper 40s across the area. Points near La Cygne and Butler may touch
50F. As the surface high continues to sag southwards, winds look to
keep conditions a bit brisk, but nowhere near the extend we saw the
past 2 days (although temperatures were much warmer).

The peak of this cool stretch comes tonight into Saturday morning as
the center of the surface high slowly migrated through southern IA.
Light surface winds as well as a combination of cold air advection
aloft (limiting an inversion) and clear skies allow strong nocturnal
cooling which lowers overnight temperatures to the 20s with at 20-30
percent chance that portions of central and northeast MO could dip
into the upper teens.

Sub freezing lows continue through much of the weekend with portions
of central and eastern MO seeing lows < 32F through Tuesday morning.
Late in the weekend, the trough currently situated across the
western CONUS begins to migrate eastward. As it does so, a lee
trough at low levels advects some warmer air from the southern CONUS
northward pushing temperatures back upward to the 50s. Midweek a
subsequent trough and preceding ridge enter the central CONUS. Flow
opens up from the desert SW and the Gulf which when combined with
the tighten pressure gradient between these systems vaults warm air
northward. The result is another period of warmer than seasonal
temperatures with highs for the tail end of next week reaching the
60s. If we flip the parameters of the forecast temperature ensembles
around they show a 10-20 percent chance of temperatures exceeding
70F which may not be a lot, but is more than one would expect this
late into November.

The warm temperatures next week are welcome as that looks to be the
next opportunity for precipitation across the region. Extended
guidance hints at a fairly interesting situation developing
particularly in the midlevel where an expansive high across the
eastern CONUS and a low across the west create a tight pressure
gradient across the intermountain west. This compression of warm air
and moisture flow combined with the exit region of an upper level
trough shows the potential for the development of and expansive area
of precipitation across the central CONUS Friday. However, much of
the activity looks to remain west of our area. Additional ejecting
shortwaves from the trough through next weekend bring opportunities
for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Of course, several
uncertainties remain and guidance does tend to spatially broad brush
PoPs the further out in time they run. We will have to see how the
pattern evolves over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the terminals through the
period. A few low clouds are possible this morning, but other
mostly clear skies anticipated. Some low VFR/high MVFR stratus
continues across central MO, but that is expected to move
out/dissipate over the next few hours. Winds remain generally
out of the north starting NNW becoming NNE before becoming more
easterly and light through the last quarter of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel