St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS63 KEAX 080525
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1125 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory South of Interstate 70 Sunday Morning

- Mostly Dry Through Middle of Week

- Next Rain Chances Wednesday into Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface anticyclone will keep conditions mild for the next few days
across the lower Missouri River Valley, while the mid and upper-
level pattern will have a weak northwesterly component to it. Clear
skies and efficient radiational cooling may allow lows to dip into
the lower 30s for areas south of Interstate 70 late tonight and
early Sunday, leading to the potential for Frost Conditions.
Therefore, have issued a Frost Advisory for this part of the
forecast area for Sunday morning. A closed 500mb low moves into the
southern Plains Sunday and Monday, while a 500mb ridge attempts to
push northeastward into the Central and Eastern Plains. 850mb flow
turns south-southwesterly with this feature, and will provide WAA
into the region, which will push temperatures back into the 60s to
start the next work week.

By the middle of next week, several mid-level features develop. H5
ridge axis is progged to amplify across the western CONUS, while a
short-trough with strong vort maxima moves downstream across the
Intermountain West and heads toward the Central and Southern Plains.
Another mid-level trough with strong vort maxima moves across the
Canadian Prairie Provinces and heads for the Great Lakes Region.
What remains uncertain at this point, is if these two trough axes
will phase or not. Current guidance suggests that these two waves do
not phase until after they are further east of our forecast area. So
while a surface cyclone is expected to develop with stronger dCVA,
a lot of the forcing is either too far south or too far northeast of
the forecast, which would keep conditions mostly dry except for our
southeastern zones. If the wave over the Intermountain West slows
down, we may see more middle and upper-level support that would
bring rain showers to central and eastern Missouri. For right now,
slight chance POPs will be focused primarily south of Interstate 70
through the middle of this week. Toward the end of the work week,
northwesterly flow will bring CAA, sending temperatures back in the
mid 50s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR continues to prevail at terminals. Patchy fog has begun to
develop across the forecast area, but with high clouds
approaching from the north and surface winds remaining stronger
around 5-10 kts, still some uncertainty on the development of
BR/FG at downtown terminals overnight (5-10% chance of < 5 SM),
and thus have continued to leave out mentions. Still left
mentions of BR development at KSTJ, with the continued idea that
low- lying areas and river valleys will be the most susceptible
to overnight BR/FG development. Still looking at a wind shift
out of the NW tomorrow by 15-18z with the passage of a weak cold
front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for MOZ040-044>046-053-
     054.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...SPG