St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS63 KEAX 300402
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy today.

- Record highs likely on Monday, with gusty southerly winds once
  again.

- Cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather not
  expected.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible to
  likely Wednesday through Saturday, with locally moderate to
  heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The warm up is well underway with strong WAA this afternoon being
enhanced by a deepening surface low across the western Plains. This
will drive afternoon highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal into the
upper 60s to mid 70s. WAA will continue tonight with lows only
falling into the 50s to near 60 which is near the normal highs for
the end of March. Tomorrow, a upper level trough will dig from the
Canadian Rockies into the northern High Plains forcing a cold front
into the central Plains. Continued strong WAA out a head of this
front under quasi-zonal flow aloft will drive highs into record
breaking territory into the mid to upper 80s (Kansas City record
high on Monday is 82 set in 1986). Monday night into Tuesday the
upper level trough will move through the extreme northern Plains and
Upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a
sagging cold front into the area Tuesday. Highs will range from the
low to mid 70s across northwest Missouri where the front will pass
earlier in the day to the low to mid 80s across the southern CWA
where the front will pass later in the evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday as
it moves into the area. The severe threat with this system looks low
as MUCAPE values will only range between 500-1000J/Kg, with weak
forcing along the front and the better upper level support north and
east of the area. Heavy rain will be possible however with PWATs
ranging between 1.25"-1.50". Tuesday night the surface front will be
just south of the forecast area along the I-44 Corridor. A nocturnal
LLJ overriding the front will continue shower and thunderstorm
chances with the best chances across the southern CWA (80-90%) with
lesser chances across the northern CWA (30-50%).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday as a the
aforementioned LLJ never weakens during the day Wednesday and the
frontal boundary just south of the may even try to lift back
northward into the southern CWA. Again, any severe threat looks low
but additional heavy rain chances, with PWATs still hovering around
1.50", will be possible and may lead to localized flooding as well
as minor river flooding. Wednesday night into Thursday a upper level
shortwave will move from the eastern Rockies through the local area
continuing shower and thunderstorm chances. The front, still across
the southern CWA will be the focus for continued heavy rain chances
with flooding continuing to be the main concern. A welcome break
from the precipitation looks like it will occur Thursday afternoon
into Friday as the cold front finally pushes south and east of the
area and a weak surface ridge builds into the region. The break,
however, will be shortlived as another upper level trough moves from
the northern Rockies into the northern Plains forcing a cold front
into the area late Friday. This will bring additional storm chances
Friday afternoon through Friday night. The 00Z EC is slower than the
12Z GFS with this system and holds precipitation in through Saturday
where as the GFS is dry. Consequently, the NBM produces 60-80% PoPs
however, the system appear more progress with the most recent run so
Saturday may be dry.

Temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 40s across northern
Missouri behind the front to the lower 60s across the south near the
frontal boundary. Highs Thursday will be near normal in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Highs Friday ahead of the cold front will rise into
the mid 60s to mid 70s falling back into the 60s Saturday behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail across the sites through the
period. Winds remain S to SW throughout as well.
Tonight/overnight, occasional gusts into the teens kts will be
possible. Winds become more SW during daytime Monday, with
sustained winds increasing into the mid/upper teens kts and
gusts into the mid/upper 20s kts. Winds remain up into the
evening/overnight Monday into Tuesday with increasing PG in
place.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Curtis
CLIMATE...BT