St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS63 KEAX 140925
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
425 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and much cooler today, with highs in the mid to upper
  60s for most locations.

- Isolated showers/storms possible throughout the daytime hours
  today.

- Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms expected
  late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Flood watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and
  Bates and Henry Counties in Missouri through Thursday
  afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday,
  with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a deep, closed mid/upper low centered
over southern Utah/northern Arizona with attendant troughing
extending southward into the Gulf of California and
southwesterly mid/upper flow downstream across the Plains and
into Missouri. At the surface, the cold front is draped from NE
Missouri to the southwest through Kansas City and into eastern
Kansas. Stratiform rain continues across southern portions of
the CWA this morning, with new convection beginning to develop
across east central Kansas from Salina to Emporia, moving slowly
to the east. With the diminished threat for additional heavy
rainfall this morning, the flood watch has been canceled for
almost the entire CWA, except for Linn County KS and Bates and
Henry County MO (more on this later). The front should continue
to slowly push southward through the day today, with low stratus
remaining and much cooler temperatures expected (mid to upper
60s for most locations).

Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms north of the
front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon. The
aforementioned western trough is projected to move eastward
across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains by
later today, finally ejecting across the central CONUS overnight
tonight into Thursday morning. The associated surface cyclone
should lift out of the TX/OK Panhandles and into eastern KS
overnight tonight into early Thursday, which will draw the cold
front back to the north as a warm front. All of this should help
generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms)
across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with
PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that
far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of
rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for
Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through
Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday should be warmer as
the warm front moves south to north through the CWA, with highs
in the mid 70s for most locations, but as the surface low exits
to the northeast, the trailing cold front should move through
from west to east Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds will turn
northwesterly behind the front, with sustained winds on the
order of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, as well as
much cooler temperatures and lower dew points. Low temperatures
Friday morning should be in the mid 40s across the region, with
breezy conditions yielding wind chills in the mid to upper 30s.
With strong cold air advection on Friday, afternoon highs should
only reach the mid to upper 50s, with breezy northerly winds
continuing through mid to late afternoon.

The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening
as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central
High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface
high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds,
clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent
radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday
morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region
(warmer of course across the KC urban head island). This should
yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern
Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest. Saturday
should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to
mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging
begins to build in from the west by Sunday, with deep layer
southwesterly flow moving in by late Sunday into Monday
downstream of a trough over Baja California. This should bring
in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back
into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Variable but generally MVFR conditions expected at the terminals
through the end of the forecast period. Light rain showers will
continue to move through portions of eastern Kansas and western
Missouri for the next couple of hours before gradually
dissipating before/around dawn. With a moist subcloud layer, BR
seems likely before sunrise as well which may occasionally drop
VIS to MVFR. CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR overnight as
well with southern sites teetering around MVFR/IFR for much of
the day. Heading into Wednesday evening, IFR CIGs look to become
more prevalent. Otherwise, northerly/northeasterly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Macko