St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

318
FXUS63 KEAX 100518
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near
  and south of I-70.

  - A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a
    few counties south of I-70

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including
  the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south
  of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. The main
  threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures fully overspread the area by
  Thursday and continues through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop
this afternoon for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor north
of a outflow/effective boundary in the vicinity of the southern CWA
border. South of these showers in a area of differential heating,
additional storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into
the evening. A few of these storms will have the potential to be
strong to severe developing in an area of 2000+J/Kg of MUCAPE with
damaging downburst winds being the main threat. Tonight, the
synoptic front currently sinking south through Iowa will move into
the local area. As it does, an upper level shortwave will move
through the region kicking off another round of storms. While these
storm are not anticipated to be severe, PWATs around 2 inches will
make theses storms very efficient making localized flooding
possible. Storms are expected to slowly sink southward through the
overnight exiting the area tomorrow morning as the cold front sinks
south of the area. Behind the cold front tomorrow surface high
pressure will build into the area. This will provide much more
comfortable and dry conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Friday, the surface ridge will slide east of the area with
modest WAA developing in its wake. This will push highs back up into
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The next chance for storms arrives this weekend, likely late Friday
night and again Saturday night into Sunday. We are especially
keeping an eye on the rain Saturday and the potential for flooding.
The GFS is showing increasing PWATs throughout the day Saturday with
values around 1.5-1.8 inches. The GFS is also showing that this will
be a slow moving system with the strong potential for backbuilding
and training cells along the front which would result in locally
higher rainfall amounts. The risk of flooding is going to depend on
how much rain we see today and tomorrow but if we do see rain, the
potential for flash flooding will increase on Saturday. As such, the
WPC has issued a slight ERO for the western 2/3 of our CWA on
Saturday. There is the potential for more storms Sunday night into
Monday as models are depicting a surface low developing over the
Northern Plains but right now the heaviest rain should remain to our
north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

MVFR conditions dominate the TAF period, though IFR will be possible
with scattered showers and thunderstorms that are expected to pick
up in coverage around/after 8z. Coverage of storms looks greatest
for the metro terminals, although a shower or thunderstorm is
possible at STJ after 10z. Rain will move east of all terminals by
13-15z and VFR conditions will return by the end of the period.
Winds will remain light and variable outside of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73/IPC/BT
AVIATION...Shaw