St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

777
FXUS63 KEAX 111951
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
251 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, breezy weather continues today and tomorrow. Enhanced
  fire weather concerns during the day Monday.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday
  evening, lasting through late week.

- Temperatures cool down through the remainder of the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The remainder of the day will be breezy and warm, with
south/southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.
The mid-level ridge axis has begun pushing eastward with the
oncoming shortwave trough from the Dakotas, with the eastern
periphery up against a shortwave lifting across the East Coast. This
pattern will contribute in shifting a low-level ridge of warmer
temperatures over much of the forecast area tomorrow, bringing high
temperatures into the low 90s and hovering just at/below records for
several sites. Coupled with the warmest temperatures of the forecast
period, a tightening pressure gradient between a developing surface
low to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast will
contribute to continued breezy weather tomorrow (sustained winds
around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible). Similar to
yesterday, despite the dry antecedent conditions and strong
winds, RH values hover around 30-50% across much of the forecast
area. This continued trend increases confidence for Red Flag
Warning criteria not being met. However, dry and breezy
conditions still contributes to fire weather concerns, so focus
remains on that potential going into the forecast tomorrow.

As the developing surface low lifts off towards the Great Lakes, a
cold front will push southeastward towards IA/northern MO. The
southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high
temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still
exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern
MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime
highs. South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate
building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a
strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the
potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening. Much
of this convective potential looks to remain elevated during the
overnight hours, with lapse rates at/around 6.5-7 degC/km during
this time period. Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe
winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

Continued impulses along the periphery of the ridge will keep PoPs
elevated through midweek as the cold front sags southward. Ongoing
activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe
threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening. However, continued
returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside
marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for
that time period. By Thursday, continued model divergence with the
progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great
Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances
across the forecast area. Similar to previous forecasts, though, the
eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will
usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures
will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period.
Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of
the time period... Something to monitor (and look forward to) with
subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR prevailing through the period. Already seeing gusts around
20-25 kts at western terminals, so have kept prevailing mentions
for gusts through 0z. Shallow inversion sets up overnight, but
guidance remains a bit higher with gust potential through 14z
tomorrow, so will have to monitor trends with later forecast
issuances. Otherwise, windy forecast continues through
tomorrow, with south/southwesterly winds around 15-20 kts and gusts
around 25-30 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG