|
St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 1:46 am CST Dec 11, 2025 |
|
Overnight
 Mostly Cloudy
|
Thursday
 Partly Sunny
|
Thursday Night
 Mostly Cloudy
|
Friday
 Partly Sunny
|
Friday Night
 Mostly Cloudy
|
Saturday
 Chance Snow
|
Saturday Night
 Partly Cloudy
|
Sunday
 Sunny
|
Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
|
| Lo 27 °F |
Hi 46 °F |
Lo 27 °F |
Hi 37 °F |
Lo 18 °F |
Hi 24 °F |
Lo 1 °F |
Hi 21 °F |
Lo 14 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
|
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. East wind 3 to 5 mph. |
Thursday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 46. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Thursday Night
|
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. |
Friday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 37. North northwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Friday Night
|
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind around 6 mph. |
Saturday
|
A chance of snow, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Saturday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 1. |
Sunday
|
Sunny, with a high near 21. |
Sunday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 14. |
Monday
|
Sunny, with a high near 45. |
Monday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 24. |
Tuesday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. |
Tuesday Night
|
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. |
Wednesday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 52. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
635
FXUS63 KEAX 110528
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind Gusts Continue To Diminish Through The Evening
- Temperature Roller Coaster This Week
- Light Snow Possible Northern/Northeastern MO Thursday, Saturday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Deep trough axis has moved into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon
and has shifted the strong surface cyclone into the Great Lakes
Region. The strongest portion of the pressure gradient has finally
exited eastward, and brought an end to the wind gusts of over 40
MPH. The last of the jet streak with that trough is exiting the
area, but is still providing some lift over Central Missouri which
will provide cloud cover through the rest of the evening. H5 ridge
axis is developing over the western third of the CONUS with strong
AVA regime into the Central CONUS, forcing a surface anticyclone
into the eastern Plains through the remainder of the evening. This
will result in clearing clouds this evening for western Missouri and
eastern Kansas. Strong northwesterly flow behind the exiting cold
front will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 20s
across most of the forecast area through early Thursday morning.
An H5 disturbance over British Columbia will be pushed through the
northwesterly flow downstream of the ridge axis and will provide
enough dCVA to develop a surface low across the Central CONUS
through Thursday afternoon, forcing the preceding surface
anticyclone into the southern Plains. As this low develops, surface
flow will turn southwesterly from Kansas into the lower Missouri
River Valley, which will force a warm front back across much of the
forecast area. By Thursday afternoon this will push eastern and
western Missouri back into the lower 50s. North-central to northeast
Missouri will still be in the mid 30s, as the warm front is not
progged to travel that far before the main low pressure system
comes in and pushes this back southward. During Thursday afternoon,
the mid-level vort maxima associated with this disturbance travels
from Central Iowa toward Northeast Missouri, providing some lift
along the leading edge of the warm front that may be enough to
produce some precipitation. Currently, with temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s, if anything is able to materialize for our
northeastern counties, would most likely be a rain-snow mixture.
Accumulations are still shaping up to be fairly light, perhaps just
a few tenths of an inch. Areas north and northeast of Kirksville
will see stronger mid-level lift support as well as other FGEN
processes to result in more snowfall. If there is not enough
moisture transport into north-central Missouri, our northeast
counties could remain completely dry. Overall ensemble probabilities
for detectable liquid QPF is between 40 and 50 percent, and drops to
under 20 percent for threshold of 0.10 of liquid QPF. Therefore,
yielding at best a few tenths of an inch of snow. Thursday Night
into Friday, another H5 short-wave moves across the Northern Great
Lakes Region while a stronger ridge comes ashore the western CONUS.
Another strong AVA regime takes place across the Central CONUS and
will work to build a strong surface anticyclone across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. This will push another cold airmass toward
the area, continuing the roller coaster of temperatures through this
week.
Heading into Saturday, current deterministic guidance is suggesting
two distinct thermal boundaries moving from the northern Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley, while the low system over the Great Lakes
forces a mid-level vort max back into the area. This is setting up
the potential for another area of convergence for north-central and
northeastern Missouri, which may bring more precipitation potential.
With the colder air coming in, most of this it occurs would likely
be snow. Once again, the stronger forcing is further northeast of
our area, but could bring a few tenths of inch of snow again
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities for 0.10 inches
of liquid QPF are around 40 to 50 percent for our far northeast.
Again, with that stronger anticyclone moving in, unsure of how much
moisture would actually be available, and surface temperatures
perhaps only reaching the teens. The anticyclone pushes through,
leaving very cold air through the weekend, but flow remains
progressive into next week that sending temperatures back above
freezing for most of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 947 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025
Good flying conditions will continue through this TAF issuance.
High clouds continue to stream across the area tonight with that
expected to continue into Thursday. VFR conditions are expected
with light southeast winds.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Cooley
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|