St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS63 KEAX 100521
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Friday Morning

- Conditional Severe Storm Threat Friday Afternoon

- Hot and Dry Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Tonight Through Friday Night:

The H5 short-wave that brought isolated thunderstorms to areas
southeast of Kansas City on Thursday evening has pushed into the
Ozarks, with subtle H5 height rises occurring behind it that
have managed  to clear skies in some parts of the area and suppress
any new storm development. With the cloud cover that developed
Thursday afternoon and multiple attempts at convection initiation,
differential heating reinforced a boundary that is roughly situated
as of 04z from Ottawa Kansas to Sedalia MO. This will be a feature
of interest heading into the overnight hours, as well as Friday
afternoon with respect to the convective complex moving eastward
across Kansas, and redevelopment potential from western to central
Missouri in the afternoon on Friday.

A surface low has been present over the Front Range and High Plains
the last few days, and Thursday evening kicked off convection in
western Kansas. That is steadily moving eastward and will do so
through the overnight hours, tied to a more notable H5 short-wave
and vorticity maxima. Stronger dCVA will spread across central and
eastern Kansas, and surface pressure falls should extend into the
eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. How this impacts the
thermal boundaries that are currently in play south of the KC metro
remains in question. Current CAM guidance appears to want to keep
this boundary where it is currently at, forcing a surface trough
axis south of Interstate 70. While deep layer shear is stronger,
between 30-40 kts associated with the approaching mid-level short-
wave, most CAM guidance indicates the convection complex will become
outflow dominant as it moves eastward out of the Kansas Flint Hills.
Will need to watch cold pool characteristics closely to assess the
longevity. Broadscale lift though will continue to the early morning
hours of Friday, and will still bring the potential for heavier
rainfall to the western portions of the forecast area, including the
KC metro during the morning rush hour. PWAT values are still nearing
2.0 inches across the region. 00z HREF PMMs are hinting at the
potential for near 2" of precipitation in parts of eastern Kansas
and western Missouri. Current Flash Flood Guidance suggests most of
this area can handle 2.0 to 2.5 inches over a 3 hour period, however
do have some concerns for the KC metro especially after Thursday
morning`s heavy rainfall. But with the current CAMs trend of
weakening convection, have held off from issuing a flood watch at
this time for our western zones. As for severe potential with this
complex, if it does not decay as quickly as CAMs currently suggest,
main threat will be 60 MPH wind gusts, and perhaps not all too
different from what occurred on Thursday morning.

As this complex decays through the morning, attention turns to
redevelopment potential Friday afternoon from western Missouri to
central Missouri. The positioning of the current thermal boundary
and how it responds to the overnight convective complex will play
large role in potential surface convergence, as well as heating and
boundary layer mixing for what CAPE looks like across the area. We
may still have enhanced mid-level vorticity present, which could
provide additional lift along with a surface trough and increasing
surface pressure falls through the afternoon. If there is any
clearing and rapid destabilization, strong storms may be able to
develop with peak heating Friday afternoon. The 00z HRRR developed a
very robust storm just north of the Kansas City Metro and moved this
eastward along the surface trough axis and thermal boundary. The
background shear environment as indicated by HRRR soundings could be
supportive a supercell mode. The low-level hodograph shape remains
uncertain though, as vorticity may be more crosswise. Therefore, it
is difficult to talk about any kind of tornado threat. However if
surface winds back along an area of surface pressure falls and close
to a boundary, this could end up presenting all potential hazards
including large hail and damaging winds. The RRFS on the other hand
is slower with destabilization as it holds onto cloud cover longer,
and does not attempt DCI until it gets around Hwy. 63 and then moves
eastward. In addition to severe storm potential, a very moist
environment with deep warm cloud processes will once again present
the opportunity for efficient rainfall production. However, we are
still seeing inconsistency with where the heavier QPF axis could
setup amongst the HREF members. Areas north of the Kansas City Metro
may be able to handle heavier rainfall, but if afternoon
redevelopment is further south, flooding may once again become a
concern. The short-wave that could provide a trigger for initiation
Friday afternoon then moves eastward, and should push any activity
out of the forecast area between 03z-06z Friday Night into Saturday
morning. Lingering activity may be possible though, as another H5
short-wave may move from the Central Plains into the lower Missouri
River Valley.

Saturday and Beyond:

Shower activity remains possible Saturday morning and afternoon
particularly for our southeastern zones with another mid-level vort
max providing lift across the area. The stronger instability and
shear though is currently progged along the Interstate 44 corridor
and into the Ozarks Region, which limits severe potential with
anything that may develop. This should push southeastward by late
Saturday evening.

Sunday and the remainder of the forecast period will feature a
prominent mid-level ridge across much of the CONUS. Strong WAA will
send temperatures back into the 90s by the the middle of week. As of
right now, dewpoints are progged to be in the upper 50s to lower
60s, which would help keep heat index values notably lower, just a
few degrees above the air temperatures. Without any notable forcing
or lift, most of the extended forecast is dry across the area.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For the 06z TAF package, uncertainty remains regarding potential
periods of shower and convective activity. A decaying MCS across
central KS, will move into the region between roughly 09-14z this
morning. Given the uncertainty with precipitation coverage, have
maintained VCSH or PROB30 groups for light rain. Additional
thunderstorm activity looks to develop near or just east of the I-35
corridor in the 18-21z period, but confidence of exact placement of
this activity remains low.

Have maintained PROB30 TSRA groups for the 18-24z period for now.
Cloud bases should remain VFR, around 8-12kft. Winds will be
variable at times, but will gradually shift from E-ESE to NE this
evening around 4-6 kts. Some MVFR is possible at STJ around daybreak
as well, but increasing cloud cover should limit the fog intensity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Snyder