St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

318
FXUS63 KEAX 132240
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
540 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight warmup is forecast as this week progresses, with high
  temperatures increasing by 1-2 degrees each day, reaching the
  mid- to upper 90s by the weekend.

- Daily peak heat index values near or just above 100 degrees
  are forecast Friday through Sunday.

- Significant rainfall is not expected over the next seven days,
  but there is small chance (15-25%) of showers during the heat
  of the day Wednesday and Thursday south of I-70.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Little has changed from previous forecast cycles.

Highs today in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with partly
cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Dew points in the mid-60s
are allowing for heat indices near the measured temperature.
Lows tonight in the mid- to upper 60s, with some patchy fog
along and north of the US Highway 36 corridor overnight and
early Tuesday morning.

Each day this week will be 1-2 degrees warmer than the previous
day, gradually warming into the mid- to upper 90s by Friday,
with Saturday currently forecast to be the warmest day of this
week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Friday-Sunday
suggests moderate to high confidence in anomalously warm
temperatures, with the low accompanying Shift of Tails values
(0, actually) suggesting an extreme event is not likely at this
time. The ENS members are the warmest of the three global
ensembles as well, which increases confidence that the warmest
potential outcome is still within a normal seasonal range for
mid-July.

As high pressure slides east Wednesday and Thursday, we return
to southerly flow and advect a slightly more moist air mass
into the region. Dew points will push into the low 70s south of
Interstate 70 Wednesday-Saturday, and this is where heat indices
will be highest, near/just above 100 degrees on Friday/Saturday.
The increase in moisture on Wednesday and Thursday will bring an
associated 15-25% PoP as well to areas along and south of
Interstate 70 as the area sits along the northern periphery of
some enhanced upper-level energy. Any showers or scattered
thunderstorms would be limited in coverage and would not be
severe.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with clr skies fcst.
Winds thru the TAF pd will be out of the east btn 3-8kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Camden
AVIATION...73