St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

861
FXUS63 KEAX 072000
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and breezy conditions Wednesday before rain moves in
  Wednesday night, kicking off an active weather pattern through the
  weekend and into early next week.

* Multiple rounds of showers and storms late week into the weekend.
  Severe threat remains low, but consecutive days of rain could lead
  to river/areal flood concerns.

* Storms possible again Sunday into the beginning of next week. Some
  storms could be severe, but uncertainty is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Later this evening, a warm front will lift north from southeast
Missouri, leading to widespread warm air advection that will become
apparent come daytime Wednesday. Most will see temperatures between
70-75F with probabilities of exceeding 70F in the range of 80-100%
along and west of I-35 as well as south of US-36. To readers in
northeast Missouri, do not fret! Although the probabilities of
reaching 70F are lower in the northeastern corner of the CWA, the
likelihood of breaking into the upper 60s is still especially high
(90-100%)...so warmth for everyone!

South/southwesterly winds will pick up after sunrise on Wednesday,
especially in northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri as a
surface low positions itself near the Iowa/South Dakota border.
North of I-70, sustained winds could hover around 20-25 MPH with
occasional gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Breezy conditions are also
expected further south though to a lesser degree. Winds will relax
around sunset as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some
locations in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri may see rain
ahead of the front Wednesday evening before the front slows and
stalls over northern Missouri by Thursday morning. Despite this
boundary remaining largely stationary, rain chances will continue
Thursday as a shortwave attempts to disrupt otherwise quasi-zonal
flow. Late Thursday evening and into Friday morning, the front will
dive south, again allowing for showers and storms to develop along
the front. The severe threat for Thursday and Friday is still
lackluster with the best instability and shear well south and west
of the CWA, but should a stronger storm develop, it would likely be
right along the cold front in northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri Thursday evening. In terms of rainfall, there`s roughly a
50% chance of receiving at least 1" of rain west of I-29 by Saturday
morning, with probabilities falling further south and east.
Accumulations could be higher in some locations, but this would
depend on where exactly convective precipitation occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Mid/upper-level ridging will tick up over the Central CONUS as a low-
pressure system deepens over southern California as we head into the
weekend. The cold front that made its way through the CWA on Friday
will stall over the southern third of Missouri, but a shortwave
ejected out from the deeper lower pressure system will result in
additional rainfall chances on Saturday, especially across Kansas
and western Missouri. Later Saturday into Sunday, the boundary
trisecting Missouri is progged to surge northward, reintroducing
considerable warmth and moisture back into the Central Plains. As
has been noted in earlier forecast discussions, signals for strong
to severe convection exist in the long term. At the time of writing,
SPC has outlined an area of interest on Day 7 (Monday) that includes
the entire EAX CWA. Although this is the only day that the CWA is
outlooked in the long term, Sunday and Tuesday have also piqued
interest as they could be impactful for our area. There are
indications of greater instability and deep-layer shear during this
three-day stretch that will require a watchful eye, but it is far
too early to come down on any specifics. As it stands, there are
more questions than answers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

IFR ceilings across north central Missouri are expected to shift
east leading to VFR conditions region wide. Brisk easterly winds
will turn clockwise with time as surface high retreats east and
low pressure builds into the Northern Plains. This should
promote gusty winds developing shortly after sunrise Wednesday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Macko
LONG TERM...Macko
AVIATION...BT