St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

010
FXUS63 KEAX 210358
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
958 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more warm day Wednesday before temperatures fall below
  normal starting Thursday.

- Generally dry conditions persist into Friday.

- Large system for the weekend may bring measurable snow to the
  region, but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

High pressure was centered over the Tennessee Valley early this
afternoon and extended into the Mississippi Valley and Lower
Missouri Valley. Weak low pressure was located over southwestern
South Dakota with a warm front extending into Nebraska and
northern Missouri. Skies were mainly clear across the region
with some cloud cover along and north of the front. Southerly
winds were bringing warmer air into the area with temperatures
warming into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A weak cold front will work through the Lower Missouri Valley
region tonight. While most of the moisture will remain to the
north across Iowa, some isolated flurries or sprinkles cannot be
ruled out as it moves through. No accumulations are expected.
There isn`t a push of cold air behind this front, so highs
Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 30s to 40s. A
secondary cold front/trough will push through late Wednesday and
bring some slightly cooler air in resulting in highs in the 30s
with a few lower 40s far south. Cold, arctic air starts to push
southward Thursday night and continue Friday. This will likely
result in Thursday`s highs occurring during the early morning
hours as temperatures will not recover much during the day.
Afternoon temps will only reach the teens and single digits
above zero.

Much uncertainty remains for the system that may impact the area
in the Friday night into Saturday time frame. Strong high
pressure will be centered over the Midwest with a tight
baroclinic zone setting up across the southern CONUS. Multiple
shortwaves will track along this baroclinic zone and eventually
lead to the development of an area of low pressure later in the
weekend over the southeast. Most of the impacts during this time
period will likely remain to our south, but deterministic
guidance continues to differ. The GFS continues to keep the CWA
dry with limited Gulf moisture reaching this far northward and
the high to the north remaining in control. The ECMWF has
trended a bit downward with its impacts, but continues to bring
some accumulating snow to the area, mainly along and south of
I-70. NBM probabilities for at least an inch of snowfall is
around 50-60% for Henry, Bates, and Cass counties with around
40-45% for the metro area and 25% along the Missouri-Iowa
border. One aspect that is not uncertain is that anything that
falls will be in the form of snow with temperatures in the teens
and single digits above zero with no ice or mixed precipitation
expected. There is expected to be a sharp gradient on the north
side of the system, so slight shifts north or south will likely
have quite an impact for the area. High pressure then looks to
take over heading into the new week with slowly warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A cold front will pass through the area between the 06-12z
Wednesday. The only significant change from the 00z TAF package
was to slightly delay the NW wind shift by 1-2 hours based on
the latest short-term model guidance. Ongoing winds around 7-10
kts will become W-NW following the passage of the front through
18z, then back slightly to the W-WSW. Afternoon winds will also
increase, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts,
relaxing after 00z Thursday. Mid- and high- level cloud cover
will accompanying the passage of the cold front, with the lowest
cloud bases around 10-15kft. Skies will clear during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Snyder
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Snyder