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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 8:53 pm CDT Jul 15, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Calm wind.
Mostly Clear

Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 96. Light and variable wind.  Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Light south wind.
Mostly Clear

Friday

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 98. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph.
Sunny

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South southwest wind around 7 mph.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 95.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 74.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 95.
Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 76.
Mostly Clear

Lo 70 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 75 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 76 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 70. Calm wind.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 96. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Light south wind.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 98. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South southwest wind around 7 mph.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 95.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 74.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 95.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 76.
Monday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 98.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 75.
Tuesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 70.
Wednesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
838
FXUS63 KEAX 160428
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to gradually climb over the next
  several days, with highs in the middle 90s forecast this
  weekend and upper 90s on Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return on Thursday afternoon, with a
  30-50% chance of precipitation for areas south of Highway 36.
  These storms could pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall
  and gusty winds.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s
  Friday through this weekend, peaking around 100 to 105 degrees
  on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed across portions
of Linn County Kansas and Bates County Missouri, within an
environment characterized by very weak deep layer shear. This
precipitation has formed near a plume of deeper surface
moisture, which is slowly advecting north and west from south
central Missouri and northern Arkansas.

For tonight, expect the aforementioned scattered showers and
thunderstorms to persist through sunset. This activity is not
expected to cause any issues, outside of occasional lightning
strikes and brief heavy downpours. Thus far, any thunderstorms
have remained short lived, and this should continue into this
evening. After sunset, a loss of diurnal heating and instability
should allow for any lingering precipitation to quickly wane.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected tomorrow,
as the aforementioned moist airmass overspreads much of the
area. This leads to PWATs increasing to near and just above 2",
which sits ~90th percentile climo for mid-July. Little change in
upper level flow leads to very weak deep layer shear in place
again tomorrow, and storms should have limited organization
along with slow movement. These high PWATs and slow storm
motions will pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall, and
localized flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. Some
threat for gusty winds (wet microbursts) may exist as well,
though confidence in this is low.

Upper ridging then reestablishes further west by late week,
with the potential for more active northwest flow to establish
into early next week. This will also bring a return of
increasing low level warm advection, with guidance suggesting
low level jet development nearly each night by this weekend and
beyond. This will bring increasing temperatures across the area
by Saturday, with highs in the middle to upper 90s expected
through Monday. Monday continues to be the warmest day, where
highs in the upper 90s will overlap with dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s to push heat index values to as high as 100 to 105F.
The greatest heat concerns Monday are expected for areas near
and south of Interstate 70.

The less clear threat will be for any thunderstorms across the
area this weekend and into early next week. The development of
the nocturnal low level jet does suggest some threat for
overnight thunderstorms, though confidence in this remains low.
Inherited slight-chance POPs in the overnight hours Monday and
beyond look reasonable at this timeframe, and see no reason to
make any adjustments. Will especially have to monitor this
threat into early next week as troughing begins to establish
across the eastern CONUS, bringing a return of active northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Patchy fog is possible towards sunrise in lower river valleys.
Cumulus are expected develop after 15Z, with the potential for
isolated storms after 18Z. The storms are expected to dissipate
towards sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...BT
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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