St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS63 KEAX 260626
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week.
  Friday looks especially warm with highs in the 70s.

- Elevated to possibly near-critical fire weather conditions
  possible on Friday. RH values may fall into the 20-30% range
  with winds potential gusting 20-30 mph.

- Wintry precipitation possible Sunday into Monday. This
  includes a 25-45% chance for at least 0.01" of freezing rain,
  and a 20-55% chance for at least 1" of snow, with the latest
  suite of ensemble guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Warm but dry conditions will prevail Thursday as the system that
moved through Wednesday evening scoured moisture well south of the
area. Highs should be able to climb into the lower 60s over eastern
KS and western MO, with highs in the mid to upper 50s further east.
Those warm and dry conditions will prevail Friday as well.
Southwesterly low-level flow will develop and that will allow
temperatures to soar into the middle 70s for much of the forecast
area. Elevated to possibly near-critical fire weather conditions
still are expected as those well above normal temperatures will drop
humidity values into the 20-30% range. The main uncertainty lies
with how low dewpoints may fall in this flow regime. Several models
show dewpoints in the mid to upper 30 degree range. Other models,
which have a more westerly component to the surface flow drop
dewpoints into the upper 20s to low 30s. This makes a big difference
in how low the relative humidity falls. That said, looking at the
GEFS HDWI for Friday, most members are above the 90th percentile and
northern portions of the forecast have many members above the 95th
percentile. Given this ensemble output, will continue to message
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon.

A cold front will move into the area Friday night into Saturday, and
depending on where the front settles by Saturday afternoon, highs
could remain well above normal, or trend back to more seasonal
levels. Ensemble guidance continues to show high variability with
temperatures Saturday. And looking over deterministic guidance shows
the front anywhere from the southern tier of the forecast area to
between I-70 and Highway 36. Our current forecast shows a nearly 30
degree spread in highs for Saturday between northern Missouri and
the southern tier of counties in our forecast area. So the forecast
high of 66 for the KC area could vary significantly.

For Sunday into Monday, the potential for wintry weather remains,
with a wintry mix still possible through the middle to southern half
of the forecast. It seems models have trended colder, pushing the
mixed precipitation area southward slightly. That said, the
probability for seeing any freezing has increased from northeastern
KS into west-central MO, with probabilities of 25-45% for at least
0.01". Ensemble guidance still depicts 5-10% for at least 0.25" of
freezing rain through this area. Further north, deeper into the cold
air, the probability for snowfall has increased, with a 20-55%
chance for at least 1" of snow. The highest probabilities are
naturally across the northern portions of the forecast area where
the deeper cold air will reside. But even across the Kansas City
area, probabilities have increased and in addition the potential for
freezing rain, there is roughly 35-45% for at least 1" of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light rain and rain showers have generally moved east of the TAF
sites, yielding dry and VFR conditions for this TAF period. Mid
level cloud cover will clear out overnight and give way to
mostly clear skies. Current light NE winds will transition to
light and variable overnight and early morning before shifting
and settling out of the W by around 18z Thursday. Winds will
remain on the lighter end with sustained westerly winds expected
under 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis