St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

838
FXUS63 KEAX 071115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow likely (>70-90%) this morning along the Missouri/Iowa
  border. Up to 1.5" of snow is possible.

- Active weather pattern begins late tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow
  night and continued through the weekend. The severe threat
  remains low, but minor areal and/or river flooding is
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Early this morning, a 700mb-600mb frontogenetically forced band is
producing an area of rain/snow across extreme north central and
northeastern Missouri. Light accumulations up to an inch an a half
will be possible before frozen precipitation comes to an end late
this morning. Today, a warm front will begin to lift north over the
CWA. This will cause a large temperatures spread across the forecast
area today. Highs will range in the 60s across the southwestern CWA
to the mid to upper 40s across the northeastern CWA. This afternoon
a weak LLJ will nose into northeastern Kansas/northern Missouri.
This coupled with a subtle upper level shortwave moving into the
area on quasi-zonal flow aloft may provide enough lift to bring a
few showers to those area. Tonight into Wednesday, strong WAA will
develop over the area in response to a upper level trough moving
from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front
into the central Plains. This will drive highs above normal, rising
into the low to mid 70s. Late Wednesday into Wednesday night, the
cold front over the central Plains will begin to sag into the area
bringing the chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms to the
area with the higher PoPs along the MO/IA border. Thursday into
Friday the frontal boundary will stall over the area. Several
shortwaves traversing the area on continued quasi-zonal flow aloft
will provide the chance for several round of showers and
thunderstorms through that period. Highs Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s but will cool into the 60s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Saturday the upper level pattern begins to change over the region.
Upper level ridging will build into the central CONUS in response to
a upper level trough digging into the California coast. The stalled
frontal boundary over the area will lift north through the CWA
during the day. A LLJ focused over the area on Saturday as this
frontal boundary lifts north will continue shower and thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 60s to upper
70s. Saturday night into Sunday the upper level trough that moved
into the California coast will dig into the southwestern CONUS and
eject out into the southern Rockies. Lead shortwave ejecting out
ahead of this trough will move into the region and provide
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms over the forecast
area. Sunday night into Monday the upper level trough will move out
into the central Plains and into the Upper MIdwest this will force a
cold front into the area keeping the pattern active. Highs Sunday
will be in the low to mid 70s and will rise into the upper 70s to
lower 80s on Monday. Right now the threat of severe weather with any
of these rounds of storms looks low however widespread 1.50"-3.00"
of precipitation could lead to some minor areal and/or river
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conds will prevail at the TAF sites thru the pd with the
exception of STJ which may experience MVFR cigs thru 17Z. To
begin the TAF pd bkn mid-lvl clouds btn 10-12kft are fcst with
the exception of STJ which is fcst to have MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft
thru 17Z. Aft 16Z-17Z...ovc mid-lvl clouds are expected to
prevail til 05Z aft which bkn high clouds are expected. Winds
to begin the TAF pd will be out of the E btn 10-15kts with
gusts to 20-25kts but will veer to the ESE aft 16Z-17Z. Aft
22Z-23Z... winds will lose their gusts but remain 10-15kts out
of the SE. Aft 05Z winds will shift to the south btn 10-15kts
with gusts to 20-25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     MOZ003-005>007-016.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73