St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXUS63 KEAX 141710
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest temperatures of the season are expected this
  morning with lows in the 20s across the region. A few spots in
  the upper teens are possible.

- Temperatures steadily warm through the weekend (reaching the
  mid 50s by Monday) with the warming trend continuing through
  the remainder of next week (forecast highs in the 60s to near
  70).

- Rain chances late next week persist. Some uncertainties in the
  forecast remain as the pattern continues to evolve over the
  next 5 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The coldest morning of the season is upon us. Temperatures have
dipped below 30F here at the office at the time of writing with the
expectation that temperatures will continue to fall into the low to
mid 20s across the region. It would not be surprising to see a few
spots dip into the upper teens across central MO. The primary
catalyst is a stout ridge visible across all height levels. At low
levels, the center of this ridge envelopes areas from northern MO to
western Ontario. Aloft, northwest flow pushes colder Canadian air
southward. The positioning of this lower level high with antecedent
light winds creates an environment for strong nocturnal cooling.
However, model sounding analyses combined with upper level water
vapor imagery shows a channel of moisture stretching from eastern MT
southeastward toward NW AR. At the upper levels, this extends into
eastern KS and is slowly migrating toward western MO. These clouds,
though nearly 30-40k feet above the surface, may provide some cover
slightly reducing the rate of nocturnal cooling to keep a vast
majority of the region at or above 20F. This is boosted by patches
of low level saturation as temperatures decrease at a slightly
faster rate than dew points through the night. As the sun rises, low
level winds shift back southerly as the overall pattern transients
eastward. While winds are expected to be light through the day (5-10
MPH), this southerly shift will be enough to bump highs up by 2-4
degrees compared to yesterday with most of the region topping out in
the upper 40s to near 50. The trend of southerly warm air advection
looks to continue through next week likely swinging temperatures
back to well above normal.

Attention turns west through the weekend as a large scale trough
attempts moves onshore. The hemispheric wave that aggregates the
perturbations stretches from the Pacific coast to the Aleutians.
The center of which looks to remain stalled in the Gulf of Alaska.
It is expected for the 500mb trough axis centered near the Four
Corners region to eject and spiral along the Red River valley of
OK/TX. This briefly redirects the flow of warm air; stalling the
warming trend Monday. Southerly flow quickly reforms Tuesday lifting
highs to the 60s by mid next week with upper 60s to some 70s
expected late next week.

Dry weather also dominates the next 5 days before precipitation
chances return. The Aleutian wave mentioned earlier finally
progresses eastward and moves into the Pacific northwest. As it does
so, a ridge across the eastern CONUS facilitates a tightening
pressure gradient across the central CONUS. This funnels Gulf
moisture and warm air northward. Several shortwaves ejecting ahead
of the main trough catalyze the development of showers across the
central part of the country. Guidance remains varied about where
storms will track. A glancing chance of rain, mainly for NW MO on
Thursday, followed by more geographically spread, yet still
relatively low (10-30 percent) through Friday morning. As next
weekend approaches accelerated midlevel flow, upper level CVA, and
some surface kinematic and thermal dynamics looks to bring the best
chances for showers (and some embedded thunderstorms) next Saturday
(40-60 percent). It is still far too early to speculate the nitty-
gritty details of next weekend`s forecast as the macroscale movement
of the Pacific wave and the synoptic evolution beneath it through
the weekend will greatly affect the anticipated weather pattern over
the next 7-9 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conds with prevail thru he pd with sct-bkn high clouds
fcst. Winds will be out of the SE/ESE btn 5-10kts thru this TAF
cycle.

&&


.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...73
UPDATE...Pesel