St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS63 KEAX 111744
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat advisory/ excessive heat warning in effect today along
  and south of highway 36.

* Low chances continue for morning showers and thunderstorms
  across the region, with best chances across northern Missouri.

* There is the potential for more organized thunderstorms late
  week that pose a damaging wind threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Another day, more heat and humidity to contend with along with the
potential of morning storms.

A shortwave across southern Nebraska is fueling clusters of storms
across central into eastern Nebraska into northern KS. This activity
is expected to shift east, approaching northwestern Missouri towards
10-11Z. This activity is building east towards the core of the low
level jet which extends from the panhandle of Texas to northern
Missouri. Forecast soundings continue to show a dearth of moisture
below 600 mb, so if showers are able to push east, heat bursts would
once again be possible.  In addition, showers would have the
potential to assist in surfacing the 30-40 knot low level jet. The
showers are expected to weaken through the morning.  Southerly flow
will once again assist in allowing the atmosphere to rapidly warm
with ample surface heating. Have continued the excessive heat
warning across central Missouri and have issued a heat advisory
roughly highway 36 and south with afternoon/evening heat indices
expected to climb to 105-110 F.  Left far northern Missouri out of
the heat advisory as lingering cloud cover/ convective
debris/outflow boundaries associated with convection to the north
may make it a bit harder to warm to advisory levels.

Long standing trough across eastern Colorado into western KS is
expected to remain in place much of the week. This trough is
expected to lead isolated late day convection today, and more
widespread activity on Wednesday as yet another shortwave pushes
east across the Northern Plains.  This could result in the potential
for an MCS Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though guidance is
very murky on this potential. There are still enough solutions
suggesting this as a possibility to prompt SPC to outlook
northern Missouri in a marginal risk for Thursday morning.

Temperature forecast in the extended depends heavily on how
effective MCS would be on dragging stationary boundary in the
vicinity of I-80 southward.  Until then, the heat and humidity will
continue with the potential of extending heat headlines in
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty winds from
the SSW are expected to continue, decreasing around sunset.
Spotty showers are possible tomorrow morning in NE Missouri but
are expected to remain elevated with little/no visibility
reductions at the surface.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ011>017-020>025.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ102.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...IPC