St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

084
FXUS63 KEAX 281855
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
155 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N
  Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.
  Strongest storms may produce small hail.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general
  thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri
  River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to
  NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).

- Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend
  back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation
  Friday - Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low pressure over central Manitoba is expected to deepen as system
continues to push east towards the Great Lakes.  Cold front
associated with this system has pushed into eastern South Dakota
into central Nebraska by 18Z.  Expect this boundary to continue to
work south and east, approaching northwest Missouri early this
evening. Increasing moisture in the vicinity of 850 mb may be
sufficient for a few showers and storms to develop along the
boundary this evening.  Instability is fairly limited (generally 500-
1000 J/KG), but increasing speed shear aloft may lead to stronger
updrafts capable of producing small hail. Low level convergence along
the front weakens through the evening as flow turns more west to
east south of the boundary, which should lead to convection becoming
increasingly sparse through the overnight.

Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow.  North
of the boundary, expect northeast winds while southerly flow remains
south of the boundary. Cooler airmass to the north will keep
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary
temperatures are expected to approach 80 F. There could be enough
convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late
day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist
adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

Leading shortwave building east across Kansas tomorrow could lead to
more scattered shower activity developing across northwestern
Missouri. A much larger and broad wave lifts north from Texas into
the Central Plains later on Friday leading to more widespread
shower/thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday.  Halloween
looks to be fairly gloomy and cooler with scattered showers.
Precipitable water values 1.1-1.2" (near daily max) should lead to
fairly efficient rain processes.

A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this
weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central
US through at least the firs half of next week.  This could lead to
cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A few spotty showers across north central Missouri will
continue to lift northeast clearing the Iowa/Missouri border by
19Z. Thereafter, will need to keep an eye on a weakening
boundary approaching the region from the north. Expect a wind
shift from the northeast north of the boundary. Spotty showers
are possible along the boundary through the evening hours,
potentially impacting the KSTJ terminal.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT