St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS63 KEAX 122336
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures continue Tuesday, with a 50-70% chance of
  high temperatures over 60 degrees across the KC metro.

- A cold front passage will bring a slight chance (15-30%) of
  rain Tuesday night. The greater rain chances will be south of
  US 50.

- Temperatures will return to near normal values Wednesday
  through Thursday as a couple of dry cold fronts pass through
  the area.

- An Arctic cold front will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of
  snow showers to northeast MO Friday and Saturday as well as
  much colder temperatures. There is a 10-40% of subzero wind
  chills Saturday and a 30-80% chance on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mild and quiet weather will continue into Tuesday. The forecast
area remains under the influence of high pressure centered over
the southeast CONUS, which will bring warm and dry southwest
surface flow. Aloft, NW H5 flow will persist as the area
remains wedged between stout ridging over the West Coast and
troughing over eastern Canada. High temperatures on Tuesday will
again climb about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Across the KC
Metro, NBM ensemble data gives a 50-70% of high temperature
exceeding 60 degrees!

The first in a series of three cold fronts will arrive Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. While there will be low-level dry
to limit rainfall amounts, there will still be a 15-30% chance
of light rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Low-level moisture will be a bit higher south of US 50, and
this is where PoPs will be relatively higher. Temperatures will
cool back to normal values Wednesday into Thursday behind the
cold front`s passage.

The second cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday
morning. The better forcing and moisture with this feature will
stay to the northeast, so only expecting a small chance (15-25%)
of snow showers or flurries in far north and northeast MO. Right
on the heels of this second front, a powerful Arctic cold front
will pass through the region Friday afternoon and night. Again,
there will be 15-25% of snow showers across far N and NE MO, but
no accumulation is expected at this time.

Bitter cold will follow the passage of the Arctic cold front.
Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around the 5th to 10th
percentiles this weekend, resulting in high temperatures ranging
from the middle 20s to middle 30s and low temperatures in the
upper single digits and lower teens from east to west,
respectively. Combined with blustery W-NW winds, there will be a
10-40% of subzero wind chills Saturday and a 30-80% chance on
Sunday, with the greatest chances N and NE MO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwesterly
winds will prevail tonight before turning westerly Tuesday
afternoon as a cold front moves through. Chances for showers should
hold off until Tuesday evening. There may be some low-level wind
shear at STJ around sunrise through mid-morning Tuesday ahead of
the cold front, but looks to remain just below the threshold at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...BJH