St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

264
FXUS63 KEAX 101905
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through the next week.

- Chance for rain continues into the weekend, though the system
  bringing the rain is trending south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Despite a cold front moving through earlier in the day, temperatures
remain above normal for this time of year. Early afternoon
temperatures have climbed into the lower 50s, about 10 degrees above
normal. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, though with the
surface high pressure centered right over the area, winds will be
significantly lighter. In the upper-levels, broad upper ridging is
dominating the central CONUS, helping temperatures to reach those
10+ degree above normal levels. That ridging will persist through
the forecast as well, resulting in above normal conditions through
the entire forecast. Upper ridging strengthens next week and
with southerly low-level flow, temperatures are likely to surge
into the 60s and potentially the 70s. For Monday there is about
a 25% to 50% chance for highs above 70 for areas south of a
Kansas City to Sedalia line. Those probabilities jump about 30%
across the forecast on Tuesday.

The forecast for this weekend continues to show at least a chance
for rain across the entire forecast area. However, the upper-low
responsible for those chances is trending south with time. The
latest deterministic GFS is now in line with the latest
deterministic ECMWF, keeping the rain south of the forecast area.
The determinist Canadian, continues with a more northerly track,
bringing needed rainfall to the forecast area. From an ensemble
perspective, the trend is similar. The GEPS ensemble has all but one
member bringing rainfall to the forecast area. In contrast, the GEFS
has about 50% of its members with rainfall in the forecast area and
the European ensemble has most members south of the forecast area.
Overall, with this suite of ensemble guidance, the chance for total
precipitation of at least 0.01" of rain ranges from about 50% in far
northern MO to about 80% along and south of a Clinton to Sedalia
line through midday Sunday. The trend from the 00Z ensemble guidance
is lower and if the ensembles follow the deterministic trend, it`s
possible this may shift entirely south of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions with only a few high-level clouds moving through
the area throughout the forecast. Gusty north winds this
afternoon will decrease later this afternoon and then become
light northerly during the overnight hours. Winds remain light
through the morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB