St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS63 KEAX 042341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions overnight with cooling temperatures
  and calm winds. Frost/freeze conditions possible again Monday
  night and Tuesday morning.

- Clear, cooler, and dry through the weekend, with chances
  (30-50%) of wintry precipitation returning Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern and warmer temperatures beginning by
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Clear conditions are in the forecast through the remainder of the
weekend as amplified ridging and surface high pressure builds in.
For today, gusty northwesterly winds persist areawide in the wake of
the cold front that passed through yesterday, and temperatures
remain cooler in the low to mid 50s areawide. Tonight, winds will
die down and clouds will clear out in advance of building high
pressure from the Central Plains. Radiational cooling will lead to
temperatures dropping to around/below freezing across the region
overnight, with guidance like the NBM and HREF honing in on high
probabilities of falling below 36 degrees overnight (70-90%). These
colder temperatures, in combination with lighter winds, will create
conditions favorable for widespread frost development. Frost
conditions may be limited in northeastern MO as a result of greater
sustained winds due to the retreating surface low interacting with
the oncoming surface high to generate a tighter pressure gradient
over this area tonight into tomorrow morning. Regardless, with
freezing temperatures overnight, sensitive vegetation will need to
be protected.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure will maintain northwesterly
winds and clear skies. Broad-scale subsidence with the surface
high will keep mixing potential low, and winds will remain
lighter through the day with temperatures climbing into the high
50s and low 60s. By Monday, an upper level trough digging over
the northern Great Lakes will drape a cold front across the
northern half of MO and northeastern KS, creating a gradient of
high temperatures for the day ranging from the high 40s in the
north to the mid 60s to the south. High pressure will build back
in to the northern Plains/western Great Lakes by Monday
evening, and temperatures will fall under sustained cold air
advection with calming northerly winds. This will introduce
another period of frost conditions across the area. In addition
to this concern, our next chance (30-50%) for precipitation
begins Monday evening and lasts through Tuesday across northern
MO. This signal has been consistent across previous forecasts,
and appears to be attributed with a convergent boundary in the
low-levels. The predominant precipitation type with this signal
is snow in far northern MO with temperatures below freezing,
with rain/snow mix along the freezing line. The probability of
seeing accumulating snow remains higher with this event
(50-70%), but the probability of 1/2 inch of snow is lower
(30-50%). A short amplified ridge will lift precipitation
chances further north through the day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A shortwave disturbance will keep low precipitation chances
(15-30%) across northern MO and northeastern KS through the
night and into Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough
progged to move across the northern CONUS will increase
precipitation chances (20-40%) once again Wednesday evening
along a cold frontal boundary. Precipitation chances will remain
high for the remainder of the forecast period as a result of
ample moisture transport from the Gulf with a subtropical high
to the southeast and dynamic support from embedded shortwaves
off of a closed low over the California Coast. Temperatures will
rise into the mid 60s and lower 70s across the area beginning
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Mid to upper-level clouds will be present for a few hours this
evening but should clear with high pressure moving in, and winds
diminishing after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for
     MOZ001>006-011>016-020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...Krull