St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS63 KEAX 060533
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely
  tonight into early Thursday morning.

    - Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible. A
      flood watch is in effect for most of the region.

    - A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Another round of showers and storms will be possible late
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Hot and humid conditions are likely for this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Broad mid/upper troughing continues across the north central
CONUS, with the stationary front draped from roughly Kirksville
through Kansas City as of 3 PM. Meanwhile, SPC mesoanalysis
shows 1.8" to 1.9" PWATs in place across the entire CWA with
deep warm cloud depths along with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE
and 40 to 50 knots of effective shear. Current radar imagery
shows showers and a few benign thunderstorms across the region,
but with an approaching vort max and the low level jet to ramp
up later this evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in both coverage and intensity. Most recent CAM
guidance suggests two primary focus areas for training
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall - northeast Missouri (in the
general vicinity of Kirksville, which received heavy rainfall
last night and this morning) - and the Kansas City metro. The
12z HREF had probability matched means of roughly 2 inches for
portions of the KC metro, with the 18z HRRR continuing to
suggest a swath of 1 to 3" possible for the KC metro. Thus, the
flood watch has been expanded westward to include the KC metro.
Given the excellent set up for heavy rainfall (model guidance
suggests PWATs could increase over 2" by tonight), would not be
surprised to see a few localized areas pick up 3+ inches of
rainfall between tonight into Thursday morning.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, a few strong to
severe storms will also be possible, with damaging wind gusts
likely being the primary threat, and SPC expanded the Day 1
marginal risk further to the north and west to include the KC
metro, as well. Showers and storms should exit the CWA to the
east by mid to late Thursday morning. However, the stationary
front should remain over the region, and with additional
perturbations translating through the mid/upper flow and ample
moisture remaining, another round of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning.

By Friday and into the weekend, the western ridge re-establishes
itself, with a 597 dam H5 high developing over the Four Corners
region, yielding increasing mid level heights over our CWA.
Afternoon highs should return to the 90s across the CWA for
Saturday and Sunday, with max heat indices ranging from the
upper 90s to the mid 100s, with generally dry weather likely.
Hot and humid conditions should continue into the start of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Complicated TAF period... Currently seeing TSRA/VCTS at all
terminals with a complex of thunderstorms that is expected to
persist overnight through 14-15z tomorrow. Winds remain light
and variable, with gusts of 50 kts possible in the strongest
storms. Also have been seeing varying IFR/LIFR ceilings through
the night... Not anticipating prevailing LIFR, but prevailing
IFR is not out of the question. Have illustrated this with
prevailing IFR and TEMPO LIFR in strongest TSRA through the
night. Impacts to visibility also anticipated in strongest TSRA,
with potential for mist/patchy fog development further reducing
visibilities as activity pushes off to the east. Anticipating
conditions to clear up by 18z tomorrow, with ceilings rising
and scattering out through the period. Ambient winds remain
variable around 5 kts through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ007-008-
     013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...SPG