St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXUS63 KEAX 311724
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the forecast
  period.

  - Heat Advisory for much of the area through at least Wednesday
  - Highs in the mid 90s to low 100s
  - Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range
  - Overnight lows warm in the mid 70s to lower 80s

- Slight chance (15%-25%) of storms across far northern Missouri
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The main forecast concern will continue to be the prolonged well
above normal temperatures. This will come courtesy of a upper level
ridge whose axis will be centered over the area today into tomorrow.
This coupled with modest WAA will allow highs to rise into the mid
90s to the low 100s today and tomorrow. Fortunately, dewpoints in
the low to mid-60s will hold heat index values in the 100 to 105
range. By Wednesday, the ridge axis will slide eastward into the
Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. However, the local area will
remain under the influence of this feature keeping highs in the mid
90s to near 100. Although temperatures may be a few degrees cooler
Wednesday due to minor height falls, moisture will slowly rise
across the area with dewpoints creeping into the mid to upper 60s.
This will yield continued heat index values between 100-105 with
some areas south of the Missouri rising above 105. These very hot
daytime conditions coupled with nighttime lows providing little
relief remaining in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the urban core of
Kansas City has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory today
through Wednesday.

The best chance for precipitation this week across the forecast area
will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the upper level
ridge slides far enough eastward where the local area is on the
western periphery. A couple weak shortwaves rounding the ridge may
bring a few showers (15-25%) to far northern Missouri otherwise,
expect conditions to continue to remain dry and hot. Highs Thursday
will remain in the mid to upper 90 and heat index values will remain
in the 100-105 range which may prompt an upgrade to a excessive heat
warning (due to the duration of the heat to 4 days or more). Friday,
the upper level ridge begins to retrograde back to the west with the
ridge axis moving back over the local area. Highs again will be in
the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 range. Perhaps
the best chance for precipitation this forecast period will come
next weekend when shortwaves rounding the ridge acts to try and
flatten it bringing slight (15-25%) storm chances. This however,
will remain to be seen, as while the GFS favors the aforementioned
solution, the EC depicts a much stronger and amplified ridge than
the GFS which would keep any precipitation well north of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. Remnant
cloud cover will continue to drift through the area with more
clearing through the afternoon and evening. Winds expected to
shift from the SW this afternoon to the S/SSW this evening and
overnight, then returning to the SW daytime Tuesday.
&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-012>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Bjork/Curtis