St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

814
FXUS63 KEAX 292324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonal to seasonally cool conditions through the work week and
  to start the weekend
  - Normal highs predominantly in the upper 60s

* Periodic rain chances though the weekend
  - Current best near-term chances tomorrow/Thursday

* Some warming temperatures and more widespread rain chances
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Everyone take a deep breath... inhale ... exhale. Much welcome,
after the series of stormy days, cooler and quieter conditions tend
to prevail over the next handful of days.

Currently, surface high pressure continues to gradually work
into the area from the W/NW. This will allow existing northerly
winds to lighten/ease and go more variable in nature tonight
before establishing SW/W tomorrow morning as it drifts E/SE out
of Missouri. Underneath ideal/efficient nocturnal cooling
conditions, overnight lows should be bottom out on the chilly
side with many areas into the low 40s if not upper 30s. Would
not be shocked if a few rural low lying/cold air pooling prone
areas even see a bit of frost.

Within the more NW to N mid-upper level flow currently established
over the central CONUS, we will see a series of shortwaves drift
through that may aide in providing some opportunities of light rain
or light rain showers over the next handful of days. The first of
which will come tomorrow/Thursday with a leading surface cool front.
Various synoptic and hi-res guidance continue to show lighter QPF
within an environment that yields just a couple hundred J/kg CAPE.
As this frontal boundary and shortwave drop through, expectation is
for some AM light rain/shower potential with a general uptick in
coverage as we work past the lunch hour and into peak
heating/mixing. A few rumbles of thunder and brief heavier showers
will certainly be possible as well.

Low confidence, but also low impact, chances for additional
rain/showers are seen depicted in various synoptic scale guidance
Friday evening and again Sunday into Monday. Both instances are not
wholly different than the opportunity Thursday in that
weak/reinforcing cool frontal boundaries dropping out of
Iowa/Nebraska concurrent with mid-upper level shortwaves. Limited
overall moisture and the cooler/less substantial thermal profiles
keep conditions such that showers to a few rumbles of thunder are
the current expectations. Underscoring this another way, current NBM
guidance shows nary a PoPs response Friday evening and
predominantly only slight chances Sunday into Monday. The latter
time period would carry a more supportive environment for
thunderstorms with more notable moisture return beginning ahead of a
sizable SW CONUS cutoff low. Throughout much of this time
temperatures remain seasonable to seasonably cool, in the upper 50s
to 60s. Warming into the 70s begins to return Sunday into Monday
with more substantial southwesterly flow becoming established over
the southern and central Plains.

More notable storm chances and generally unsettled weather are seen
after Monday as the SW CONUS cutoff low and more notable northern
stream trough approach the region. This points to our next
opportunity for appreciable rain and thunderstorms coming in the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Plenty of variability in the timing
and specifics, so suffice it to say showers/thunderstorms possible
as the southern stream shortwave and surface low lift into the area
and then along an approaching cold frontal boundary with the
northern stream wave and surface low.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Over the next several hours, cloud cover is expected to diminish
at all four terminals with light, variable winds prevailing
during the overnight hours. Late tomorrow morning/early tomorrow
afternoon, BKN conditions will build back into the region ahead
of a weak cold front. This front will result in NW flow during
the late hours of the TAF period. Rain may occur near the front
as it moves through late Thursday afternoon, but with limited
confidence in occurrence at this time, have opted for PROB30 at
KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD in the last few hours of the TAF period.
With any rain that occurs, CIGs/VIS could drop to MVFR.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions thru 00Z Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Macko