St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXUS63 KEAX 281754
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1254 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue through
  this evening.

- Above normal temperatures return tomorrow.

- Record high temperatures likely on Monday with breezy SSW
  winds.

- Cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, bringing
  relatively high chances (50 to 80%) for showers and
  thunderstorms. Severe weather threat is low.

- Cooler temperatures and continued chances for rain (40 to 70%)
  for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The main concern this afternoon/evening is the high fire danger.
Highs will be near seasonal normals in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
However, surface high pressure over the area this morning, which is
now shifting east into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon has left
dry conditions in place. Dewpoints over the area will be in the
teens to lower 20s yielding relative humidity values in the 15-25%
range this afternoon/evening. The dry conditions coupled with WAA
increasing wind gusts to 20-30 mph this afternoon is leading to high
fire danger. WAA will continue tonight and increase into tomorrow in
response to a surface low developing over the western High Plains.
This, in concert with zonal flow aloft will drive highs into the low
to mid 70s. Strong southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will again
cause elevated fire weather concerns however, at this time relative
humidity values look to remain above critical thresholds. Strong WAA
will continue Monday as a upper level trough digs from the Canadian
Rockies into the northern High Plains. This will force an attendant
cold front into the Plains States. This will allow temperatures to
record breaking levels with highs in the mid to upper 80s (Kansas
City record high is 82 set in 1986).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Monday night into Tuesday...the aforementioned upper level
trough will dig through the northern Plains and into the Upper
Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area during
the day Tuesday making the temperature forecast challenging.
Based on the current forecast timing of the frontal passage,
highs Tuesday will range from the upper 60s across northwest MO
to the upper 70/lower 80s across the south CWA. This front will
also bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area on Tuesday. The greatest for showers and storms will occur
in the afternoon in the evening when PoPs will be in the 50- 80%
range. The severe threat looks low at this time with the better
potential appearing northeast of the area where the better
upper level forcing and shear resides. Precipitation associated
with this system should shift south and east of the area by
Wednesday morning. However, the pattern looks to stay active for
the second half of the work week as a series of shortwave will
bring additional storm chances. Model solutions being out of
phase as to when these shortwaves will affect the local area
have produced PoPs in every period from Wednesday through next
Saturday however the Thursday night/Friday timeframe looks to be
mainly dry based on the latest mid-range model guidance.
Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly below
normal with highs in the 50s. A warm front is expected to lift
into the area Friday driving highs into the lower 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds will be the main concern for aviators this TAF pd. Winds
to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south btn 10-15kts with
gusts 20-25kts. Aft 00Z...winds will lose the gusts but will
remain out of the south btn 8-15kts however, after 14Z winds
will incr to 15-20kts with gusts 25-30kts. Otrw...conds will be
VFR with sct mid-lvl clouds fcst thru 00Z aft which just
periodic sct-bkn high clouds are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73
CLIMATE...BT