St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS63 KEAX 070444
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow likely (>70-90%) late Monday night into early Tuesday along
  the Missouri/Iowa border. Up to 2" of snow is expected, with a
  narrow band of higher accumulations possible. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect for several counties in the northern portion
  of the CWA.

- Active weather pattern as we head into mid/late week with several
  opportunities for rain Wednesday and beyond. Severe threat remains
  low, but flooding is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Although it is April, snow is expected to make a forecast comeback
late tonight and into Tuesday in the northern portion of the CWA.
After dark, a frontogenesis maxima looks to intensify over Omaha and
extend southeastward into northeastern Missouri. This will support
the development of a narrow band of snow in the same vicinity. While
the best signal for impactful snowfall remains confined to eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, potential for up to about 2" of wet
snow does exist in several of our counties along the MO/IA border.
However, with warm road/surface temperatures, it is unclear how much
snow would be able to successfully accumulate and produce impacts.
Around 1:30PM, road temperature sensors in southern Iowa reported
road surface temperatures in the mid/upper 70s. Along I-70 in
Missouri, road surface temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer, so
roads in our northern MO counties are likely somewhere in between.
Now, from diurnal cooling alone, we would expect road surface
temperatures to drop overnight. The question I pose here is "just
how cool" surfaces will become. This is of particular note due to
this event simultaneously being a borderline freeze event. Overnight
cloud cover and winds could easily prevent temperatures from
reaching freezing when frontogenic forcing is greatest, thus
limiting snowfall accumulations. Another factor that could affect
snow totals is the precise placement of the Fgen maxima and
subsequent snowfall band. Should this band intensify further south
than currently anticipated, we could see higher snowfall totals in
our northernmost counties. Still, probabilities of more than 2" of
snow along the border remain low (<20%).

Tuesday, snow will gradually come to an end after sunrise.
Temperatures will be largely similar to Monday, with an exception
for areas along and north of Highway 36 which may be about 5-10
degrees cooler. Cloud cover will be ample across the region with a
warm front expected to lift north late Tuesday evening and into the
overnight hours on Wednesday, ushering in region-wide low/mid 70
degree temperatures and breezy southerly winds, particularly in
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Rain chances will build in from the northwest late Wednesday ahead
of a cold front, marking the beginning of a rain-filled extended
forecast. After Wednesday, the cold front is expected to stall along
the US-50 corridor, prolonging shower and storm chances through
Friday and Saturday. At this time, ensemble guidance is not
particularly excited about severe potential mid/late week with the
greatest instability staying off to the west. Instead, the focus
seems to be on river and areal flooding concerns with PWATs well
above climatology (>90th percentile from Thursday through at least
Sunday). By Saturday morning, up to 2" of accumulated rainfall is
possible.

The aforementioned stationary boundary will likely travel northward
as a warm front sometime on Saturday, leading to a resurgence of
moisture and warmth. Combined with shortwaves ejecting out ahead of
a deeper low pressure system along the California coast, this will
continue to fuel rain and storm chances through the weekend and
beginning of next week. Ensembles hint at greater instability/shear
environments Sunday PM and again on Monday PM, but at this range,
little more can be said other than there is at least some potential
for stronger convection in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF sites thru the pd with the
exception of STJ which may experience MVFR cigs btn 10Z-17Z. To
begin the TAF pd bkn mid-lvl clouds btn 8-10kft are fcst. Btn
10Z-17Z ovc cigs around 5kft are expect with the exception of
STJ which is fcst to have MVFR cigs btn 2-3kft. Aft 16Z-17Z...
ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are expected thru 22Z when bkn
high clouds are fcst. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of
the NE btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts but will become more
ENE/E aft 10Z. Aft 16Z-17Z...winds will cont to veer to the ESE
remaining btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. Aft 22Z-23Z...
winds will lose their gusts but remain 10-15 kts out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ003-
     005>007-016.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Macko
LONG TERM...Macko
AVIATION...73