St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS63 KEAX 300408
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1108 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the entire forecast.
  High and low temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal
  next week with heat index values ranging from 100 to 105.

- Low chances for precipitation across northern Missouri early
  tomorrow morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Broad upper-level ridging is spreading east into the middle of the
country. In the lower-levels, southerly to southwesterly level winds
will prevail and this combination will lead to temperatures
climbing to well above normal values, which are now in the mid
80s. Highs on Sunday will climb into the middle to upper 90s for
most locations, with nearly even chances for 100 degree
temperatures in our far southern and southwestern zones. While
it will be very hot, the combination of temperatures and
humidity will keep most areas from seeing heat index values
climbing near or exceeding 105. So don`t anticipate the need for
a heat advisory at this time. 500mb heights increase into
Monday with the greatest heights just south of the area across
Arkansas and into southern Missouri. This will support even
warmer temperatures and a greater probability of more areas
seeing 100+ degree temperatures, including the Kansas City area.
Persistent southerly flow should lead to an uptick in moisture
such that when combined with the well above normal temperatures,
the area is more likely to see heat index values near or
exceeding 105. This trend continues through late next week and
anticipate some kind of heat headline needed for at least a
portion of the forecast area. Right now this looks more
probable in southeastern zones and potentially areas along and
south of the Missouri River.

Switching to precipitation potential, chances look very low to non-
existent for the next week. However, for tomorrow morning, a similar
setup to this morning will play out. The main focus for
precipitation will be along the nose of the low-level jet, generally
north of the forecast area. However, there is still some mid-level
ascent noted moving into northern/northwestern Missouri. And also
some potential for an outflow boundary to move into the area, aiding
any subtle broader-scale ascent. Have added PoPs generally around
20% for tomorrow morning to account for this lower confidence/lower
probability potential. For the remainder of the forecast, there is
limited potential overall. But on Wednesday night into Thursday, as
the upper ridging weakens slightly, and a weak boundary moves into
the area, that some slight chances move into northern Missouri.
Right now, chances look less than 20% so more likely to remain dry
than to see any precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Breezy VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF
period. Southerly winds around 8-10 knots with intermittent
gusts continue through the overnight. Wind gusts become more
frequent after sunrise tomorrow primarily late morning through
sunset. Gusts curtail after sunset. There is a small chance for
SHRA in far NW MO, but activity is likely to remain north of
STJ.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Pesel