St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS63 KEAX 212327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above Normal Temperatures This Week

- Breezy Monday

- Periods of Fog Possible In The Morning This Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Surface high pressure has moved into the lower Missouri River Valley
and has provided the mild weather conditions. Mid to upper-level
ridge axis is currently positioned across the Intermountain West,
with strong northwesterly flow occurring from the northern Plains
into middle Mississippi River Valley. The nose a an H3 120kt jet is
currently near western Illinois. This has pushed some limited
moisture providing some cloud development through this afternoon.
Flow from 800mb and lower has generally been southerly, providing
WAA that has boosted temperatures into the upper 40s across most of
the area, with some areas south of Interstate 70 reaching the lower
50s. Continued WAA overnight will prevent temperatures from dropping
drastically across the area, with Monday morning lows generally in
the mid 30s. Far northeast reaches of the forecast area may dip into
the lower 30s by early Monday morning.

Most of this holiday week will be characterized by prominent mid-
level ridging, along with H85 thermal ridge axis passing through.
Increasing dAVA into the Ohio River Valley will strengthen and push
the surface anticyclone eastward of the area, maintaining lower
tropospheric southerly flow. There are few disturbances progged to
move through the mid-level ridge axis through the week, that will
provide some lift and attempt a surface cyclogenesis response,
though most of these attempts are quickly disrupted. This will
provide multiple days of south to southwesterly flow, maintaining a
WAA through much of the week. Forecast remains on track for above
normal temperatures for most of this week, potentially peaking in
the mid 70s south of Hwy. 36 Wednesday and Thursday. Amongst NBM
members, probabilities for temperatures above 70F on Thursday are
still between 70 and 80 percent, then steadily dropping off north of
Hwy. 36. Even with a few short-wave disturbances moving through,
even the bulk of ensemble members remain dry most of this week, with
probabilities under 10 percent for any detectable rain. Next signal
for precipitation is next week on Sunday. There may be a  few
periods of stronger wind gusts, possibly Monday and Wednesday
afternoon, as mixing may be able to pull down stronger momentum.
Model soundings are indicating winds around 25kts at the top of the
progged mixed layer on those days. Some guidance is hinting at
morning fog development during this period of WAA. This will largely
depend on how deep the moisture is within the boundary layer. If
stronger moisture transport occurs, we may see morning fog during
this warm period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Lower clouds with ceilings between 3500-4000 feet are expected
to move into terminals between 12-14Z before scattering out by
18Z on Monday. Winds will tbe out of the southeast at less than
10 knots intially before turning out of the southeast around 12
knots at 12-13Z on Monday and increasing by midday with gusts
over 20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24:
KMCI: 72/2021
KSTJ: 69/2021

December 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 25:
KMCI: 53/1936
KSTJ: 51/1936

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull/WFO EAX
CLIMATE...CMS