St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS63 KEAX 072328
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions continue with highs into the lower
  90s on Wednesday.

- Not as hot with multiple chances for rain and storms, some
  strong, Wednesday night though Saturday.

- Hot and dry returns next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Rest of today and tomorrow... High pressure will slowly move
east, but will still be the main force for us through the day
tomorrow. This will keep us in the same mostly sunny and light
wind setup through the day tomorrow. The slow ramp up in
temperature will continue tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s
as WAA drives more heat in.

Wednesday night through the weekend... Wednesday night will see
the upper high start to retreat, allowing for us to move into a
more active pattern aloft where multiple shortwaves will move
through. The first round on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning will most likely be off to our west and north closer to
the cold front and main area of forcing. Whatever develops will
likely be decaying as it heads east, but some ensemble members
do keep it together long enough for us to see some rain on
Thursday morning. Chances for strong to severe storms are low
for this as the better environment remains closer to the front.
How this morning rain and possible convection plays out will be
key in determining the heat impacts for Thursday. If we can stay
cloudy from this rain it will limit the heat vs clearing out or
staying clear will cause a more significant heat risk day.
Overall right now it is south of I-70 that has the highest
chance for heat impacts on Thursday as it will be farther from
possible morning rain and closer to the WAA from the advancing
warm front. It is this same warm front that will drive the next
round of rain and storms for Kansas and Missouri. As this front
lifts north it will provide the CI mechanism for the next round
of storms. SPC has a marginal (1 out of 5) severe risk for
Thursday tied to this chance. Ample instability, but more spread
in guidance on the shear. Will need to get more CAM runs to
better resolve where the severe threat could set up. This
boundary looks to stall over us and will provide additional
chances for rain until it moves out on Saturday.

Next week...An impressive ridge looks to build in early next
week with a possible 600 dm upper high possible over the
Midwest. This would easily bring temperatures into the 90s. The
bigger question on impacts will be how much moisture we will
see. Current guidance has dew points right on the edge of what
would be another week of extreme heat. Fairly high confidence on
the temperatures, but less on the dew points and therefore the
overall heat risk.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quiet, VFR conditions are expected across the region. Outside of
sporadic Cu, little to mention in the way of cloud cover. Light,
variable winds will remain in place for the majority of the TAF
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carletta
AVIATION...Macko