St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

524
FXUS63 KEAX 260442
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...06Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated non-severe storm is possible this evening across far
eastern KS into far western Missouri.

- Increasing severe weather threat later in the day on Sunday into
Sunday night.  All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind a strong cold
  front moving through the region mid-day Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Cold front associated with an occluded low pressure center across
central Canada will continue to slowly push east this afternoon and
evening. Ahead of the front, a weakly unstable atmosphere exists
with increasing low level moisture.  There is a fair amount of cloud
cover across central and eastern KS, but still could see a few
showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the cold front
with 750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and weak short wave building east.
CAMs suggest a few of these storms may approach eastern Kansas into
far western Missouri this evening, though the trend has been to
shift timing a bit later in the evening. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity with relatively weak instability.

Sunday, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies is
expected to lead to increasing southerly winds.  As the warm front
noses into the region, increasing shear and instability is expected.
0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots west of the warm front
and  surface based CAPE increases to 1500-2500 J/kg.  Forecast
soundings suggest there is a bit of a cap near 700 mb, but 25-35
knot low level jet developing Sunday evening across the plains may
weaken the cap. Models also suggest a series of short waves moving
across KS that could assist in the development of convection, but
are largely focused after 06Z Monday. The left exit region of the
upper level jet also noses into the region after 06-09Z Monday,
potentially assisting in lift developing across the region. This all
said. That there are multiple triggers but no clear indication on
if/what will get convection going.

Strong cold front is expected to work through the region mid-day
Monday, bringing an end to the potential for storms. Cooler and
drier conditions are expected through much of the remainder of the
week.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions are likely through most of the overnight. But
MVFR ceilings may build east into the area around sunrise
tomorrow and linger for much of the morning hours. Probabilities
are higher in KS for low MVFR so have added a prevailing group
to IXD for that. Further east, have only scattered low MVFR and
prevailing non fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings. As cloud bases
gradually raise through the morning, winds will start to
increase and have kept some mention of gusts to 25kts going. The
most likely period for storms looks like late tomorrow
afternoon and then through the overnight hours, mainly along and
north of the MO River. With uncertainty still quite high, have
only gone with a PROB30 group to account for this with shorter
overall times at IXD and longer times further north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB