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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 10:42 pm CDT Jul 8, 2026 |
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Tonight
 Showers
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Thursday
 Showers then Mostly Sunny
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Thursday Night
 Increasing Clouds
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Friday
 Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms then Chance Showers
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Saturday
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
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| Lo 73 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 73. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Thursday
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 10am. High near 90. Heat index values as high as 96. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Thursday Night
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Increasing clouds, with a low around 71. North northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. |
Friday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 70. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 87. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 69. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 89. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 69. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 92. |
Tuesday Night
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Clear, with a low around 72. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 93. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
399
FXUS63 KEAX 082340
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
...Updated 00z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Our stretch of dry weather comes to an end late tonight into
early tomorrow morning and this wetter pattern will continue
into the weekend.
- Strong to severe storms will be possible with strong winds
and heavy rainfall as the primary risks.
- Hot and dry weather returns next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Tonight into Tomorrow... The upper level pattern looks to become
more active as multiple shortwaves moves through the central
CONUS. After one last day of quieter summer weather today the
first round of weather looks to arrive late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Storms are expected to initiate across the
Upper Midwest and High Plains this evening near the cold front and
track east this evening into tonight. The primary severe
environment is where SPC has their highest risks are well to
our west. Upscale growth into a MCS is very possible and this
occurrence is what could give us a severe risk. Many of the CAMs
show some amount of upscale growth, so it does seem like the
more likely solution. If a MCS can develop with the aid of a
robust LLJ we could see the MCS maintain itself well into
eastern Kansas and Missouri. The primary threat with this will
be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As the LLJ decouples, the
storm would start to fall apart. How far east this gets before
falling apart will play a key role in the rest of the day on
Thursday. If it gets deep into Missouri before falling apart
this will keep us cloudier and cooler keeping heat risks much
lower. The forecast has clearly trended more in this direction
over the past day. More of the spread now between the modeling
systems is how far south to take this cooler solution. North of
I-70 seems most likely, but some take it even farther. For later
in the day the better environment does seem to be to the east
and south, but storms could well initiate over western Missouri.
Recent trends have started to favor farther east and SPC has
updated their slight risk for tomorrow farther east to account
for this. Once again how the morning plays out will be key as if
we see an MCS a it may leave behind a MCV and that would be a
favored area for additional CI. The more organized convection
with the larger wind threat likely seems east where more
destabilization will occur or farther south closer to the warm
front.
Friday into the Weekend... Thursday`s warm front will continue
north and likely stall out over us Friday and Saturday before
finally moving out on Sunday. This will provide more lift for
additional rain chances. Looking towards the global ensembles
there is signal for rain all the way through Sunday evening when
spread starts to increase with more dry members starting to show
up. This does not look like it will be a rain all the time kind
of setup, but more of an intermittent rain. Timing when this
will start and stop at this range is not something that can be
done with much accuracy. Instability will be sufficient for
thunderstorms, but the shear profile does not look as favorable
for severe storms. However anytime you get instability with
steep lapse rates some stronger storms are possible and with
this SPC does have a marginal risk south of I-70 on Friday.
Next Week... There is strong agreement between the global
deterministic models that a large ridge will develop over the
central CONUS early next week. There is more variability in how
this evolves over the rest of the week. This favors a return to
hotter and dry weather for the next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026
Cloud will slowly increase through the evening with system
approaching. Cloud bases and ceilings should remain VFR for
most of the evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
during the overnight hours, and this may result in a few hours
of MVFR conditions as these move through. By mid afternoon,
shower activity should push southeastward. More activity is
possible late Thursday evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Carletta
AVIATION...Krull
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