St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS63 KEAX 132351
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
651 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible Thursday morning. These will
  be non-severe. A better chance for strong to severe storms
  will exist late Thursday evening into the overnight.

- Much warmer and more humid conditions Friday and through the
  weekend.

- Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Friday and into
  weekend. Friday, particularly, could feature large hail and
  damaging winds with storms that develop during the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

1020 mb surface high centered across the area early this afternoon
is expected to shift south and east.  As mixing dies away, surface
winds are expected to shift out of the southeast, gradually
increasing as deepening trough over the Rockies pushes east. Small
amount of isentropic lift develops on the 300-305K surfaces towards
12Z across eastern KS/far western MO.  With this weak lift,
potential exists for a few elevated showers/thunderstorms to
develop. These storms look to be largely confined along and south of
I-70, and west of highway 65. Breezy conditions are expected to
develop on Thursday drawing Gulf moisture north. Ribbon of
instability is expected to develop across central into eastern KS,
with weaker instability farther east owing to steep mid level lapse
rates from 600-500 mb.  If ample mid level moisture is able to get
far enough north/east, could develop an isolated storm or two
Thursday evening as a shortwave moves east in zonal flow.

Heat and humidity continue to build north on Friday, with highs
approaching the upper 80s to potentially the lower 90s.  Another
late evening short wave is expected to build east in zonal flow, and
could see strong storms develop in the late evening hours capable of
gusty winds or large hail; however, wind shear looks somewhat weak
(< 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk  shear) south of highway 36.

Warm and muggy airmass is expected to linger across the region
through the weekend as additional shortwaves track through the Upper
Midwest leading to periodic chances of thunderstorms through the
weekend. Strong cold front is expected to move through the region
Monday night leading to the best chance for widespread strong-severe
storms.  Cooler, more tranquil conditions are expected behind the
front on Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period.
A center of high pressure sits over the region leading to light
and variable winds for the most part. Some residual diurnal
mixing is promoting intermittent wind gusts, but those should
curtail after sunset. As the high slides east winds reorient out
of the SE becoming gusty after sunrise. Gusts peak in the
afternoon around 20-25 knots with some 30 knot wind gusts
possible in NW MO. Isolated -RA is possible early tomorrow
morning; however, confidence in coverage and location are too
low to include in the TAF at this time. A second round of
RA/TSRA is possible tomorrow night expecting to arrive after
this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Pesel