St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS63 KEAX 091148
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
548 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures are possible this afternoon with
  highs likely reaching the lower 70s across eastern Kansas and
  far western Missouri.

- A cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into
  tomorrow morning, reducing temperatures for tomorrow afternoon
  (although remaining above normal).

- Cooler, but still above normal temperatures likely for the
  remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances (20% to 50%) return Thursday into Friday.

- Rain chances increase further (50% to 60%) Friday night into
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Broad mid/upper level ridging and above normal temperatures
remains in place across the vast majority of the western half of
the CONUS this morning, with our CWA situated along the eastern
edge of this ridging beneath northwesterly flow aloft. By this
afternoon, mid/upper ridging out ahead of a mostly stationary closed
upper low centered near Baja California and a northern trough
translating west to east across the Northern/Canadian Plains
toward the Upper Midwest shifts further eastward, bringing the
ridge axis over our CWA, yielding more zonal flow, higher mid
level heights and warmer 850 mb temperatures. Meanwhile, a
surface low is progged to deepen slightly over the SD/IA/NE tri
state area, yielding increased south southwesterly surface
winds and theta e advection in response. All of this will help
yield very warm temperatures this afternoon, with highs
forecast to reach the lower 70s across eastern Kansas and far
western MO (mid to upper 60s further east). Model guidance has
continued to trend slightly warmer with each successive run, and
the NBM now gives roughly a 50% probability for MaxT at MCI to
meet or exceed 72 degrees, which is the record high for Feb 9th
(set in 1943). Despite the modest dewpoint increases this
afternoon, relative humidity by early to mid afternoon will
likely drop to around 30 percent across portions of eastern KS
and western MO, and with the abnormally warm temperatures and
breezy SSW winds, this could yield a brief window of elevated
fire weather conditions.

By tonight, the aforementioned northern mid/upper trough is
projected to deepen/become more amplified as it moves east
southeastward into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
region. This will help push a cold front through the region
from northwest to southeast, with the latest HRRR bringing the
front into far NW Missouri by around 2 AM Tuesday, through the
KC metro by around 5 AM, and completely through the remainder of
the CWA by 8 AM Tuesday. Cooler and drier air will come behind
the front, although temperatures will still remain well above
normal with highs in the mid 50s for most locations Tuesday
afternoon. For Wednesday, WNW flow should be in place aloft over
our CWA as we will be situated between troughing to the east
and ridging to the west, with surface high pressure settling
overhead. This should result in dry conditions with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 40s across far NE Missouri to the
mid 50s toward KC and areas south.

Models diverge a bit as we head into late week and the weekend,
with roughly 8 to 10 degree spreads between the NBM 25th and
75th percentile for Max T for Thursday through Saturday. Quite a
bit of cloud cover may linger over the region through this time
period, with slight chance to chance PoPs (20 to 50 percent)
for Thursday and Friday. By Friday night into Saturday, both the
GFS and the ECMWF depict a mid/upper trough traversing across
the Desert Southwest/NW Mexico and into the far southern Plains
and eventually into the lower Mississippi Valley, although they
differ on the exact placement and evolution of this trough and
attendant features. Regardless, this will yield increased
chances for precipitation (up to 60% PoPs) and more widespread
QPF, with the most recent NBM showing around a 40% probability
of rain exceeding 1" at MCI from late Friday night into Saturday
evening. That being said, quite a bit of uncertainty remains
with this system as the NBM shows roughly a 35 to 40%
probability of less than 0.1" of rain at MCI, as well. Some very
low end (roughly 10%) chances remain for some wintry precip
across portions of the region for Saturday, although at this
time little to no winter weather impacts are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Currently VFR at the KC metro terminals with river valley fog
reducing STJ VIS to 5SM with light and variable winds across the
region. Fog should mix out at STJ within the next couple hours,
with VFR conditions then expected at all terminals through the
remainder of the period. Main TAF concern will be the winds,
with winds becoming SSW and increasing to around 12 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots or so by 18z this afternoon. Gusts should
relax by late afternoon, with winds turning northerly behind a
passing cold front overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW