St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

718
FXUS63 KEAX 091937
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
137 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild Weather Conditions To Start the Week

- Low Rain Chances East of Hwy. 63 Midweek

- Cooler Next Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mid and upper-level synoptic pattern is fairly progressive for the
northern third of the CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
This is currently resulting in modest mid-level ridging across the
eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon,
continuing the development of the surface anticyclone, but is
starting to push southeastward. This will continue to keep skies
mostly clear this evening. We will need to monitor fog trends this
evening and overnight, but if winds hold between 3 and 5 kts, its
development may be inhibited. Low-lying areas sheltered from the
wind and river valleys may still fog in this evening. Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, H5 short-wave and associated vort maxima travels
out of the Rockies and de-amplifies the mid-level ridge, with dCVA
developing a surface cyclone in the northern High Plains. Ahead of
this lower-level flow turns more southwesterly, with increased WAA
from the Central Plains toward the lower Missouri River Valley. This
will send temperatures into the mid 60s for most of the forecast
area, with areas further south of Interstate 70 potentially hitting
the lower 70s. As the attendant cyclone continues to deepen, strong
cold front will trail this system, and increase convergence heading
into Wednesday.

The rate of H5 height falls will continue to increase as the
stronger vort maxima moves overhead, along with surface pressure
falls. While convergence will be increasing, current guidance
focuses the moisture transport from the Ozarks into eastern
Missouri, while in central and western Missouri, the air remains
drier that may be the result of the dry conveyor belt wrapping
around the low. Because of this, rain chances continue to remain
east of Hwy. 63 Wednesday into Thursday, and mostly just outside of
the forecast area. Current ensemble probabilities maintain less than
10 percent chance for measurable rain for our eastern zones, with
higher probabilities into eastern Missouri. There may be enough lift
to generate some light sprinkle activity, but overall forcing and
moisture are aligning better further east.

The trailing cold front is progged to move through late Wednesday
Night and early Thursday morning, which will push temperatures back
down into the lower and mid 50s heading into the weekend. A strong
500mb ridge is expected to amplify over the western CONUS during the
weekend, reinforcing northwesterly flow into the Central CONUS which
will keep temperatures generally in the 50s. This may start
deamplify late Saturday, bringing mid-level height falls back across
the forecast area on Sunday, where light rain activity may be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

High pressure will keep skies mostly clear through the
afternoon. Radiational cooling may lead to another foggy night
in some locations, though 3-5 kt winds may help inhibit fog.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull