St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS63 KEAX 021130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue into this morning, with locally
  moderate to heavy rainfall possible.

- A few isolated storms may be possible this afternoon along the
  passing cold front, with a conditional low end risk for a
  strong storm or two.

- Very windy conditions are expected later this morning into
  this afternoon, with southwesterly winds gusting up to 35 to
  40 mph.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into
  Friday evening, with all severe hazards possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the mid/upper trough axis extending
north to south across roughly the KS/CO border and into the
OK/TX Panhandles, with this trough beginning to take on a bit of
a negative tilt. At the surface, the warm front extends
eastward from the surface low across west central Kansas,
roughly along Interstate 70. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing, but the severe threat has diminished
significantly. Significant rainfall amounts have fallen across
portions of our southern and southeastern zones, with a corridor
of roughly 4 to 6 inches from the Rich Hill area toward
Chilhowee. The surface low will move to the northeast through
the overnight hours into far NE KS by around 7 am and into far
southern Iowa by around 1 pm, with the warm front lifting
northward through the remainder of the CWA overnight tonight.
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should continue into
Thursday morning, coming to an end from west to east. Very
strong southwesterly winds should arrive by later this morning
out ahead of the approaching surface low and cold front, with
sustained winds on the order of 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph
continuing into Thursday afternoon. Gusts may approach of even
exceed 45 mph toward portions of NE Missouri this afternoon, so
have issued a small wind advisory to account for this.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon along the trailing cold front, especially closer to
the surface low across northern and northeastern Missouri. With
roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 40 knots of deep layer
shear, cannot rule out some better organized updrafts capable of
producing severe weather. Also, with some decent effective SRH
and right curved hodographs, there will be a non-zero tornado
threat. This has prompted SPC to included much of the CWA within
a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon, with a small
sliver toward NE MO within a slight risk. However, 00z HREF
guidance is not particularly excited about the threat for severe
weather in our CWA this afternoon, keeping better chances
northeast of the region into eastern Iowa.

By Friday morning, a closed H5 low is projected to be centered
over eastern Wyoming, sliding into South Dakota by Friday
afternoon, with the trough axis extending southward into the
central Plains and sending a belt of 40 to 50 knot H5
southwesterly winds over the CWA. Meanwhile, at the surface, the
low should take a track not too dissimilar from the track of
the current surface low - from west central KS into far SW Iowa
by Friday evening, pulling a warm front north through the CWA
through the afternoon hours of Friday and a trailing cold front
extending to the southwest through NW Missouri into eastern KS
by around 7 PM Friday. The convective environment on Friday
afternoon across the open warm sector should be characterized by
moderate instability (2000 J/kg of ML CAPE), strong deep layer
shear (40 to 50 knots of effective bulk shear), steep mid level
lapse rates, only a modest cap at 850 mb, and substantial
effective SRH and right curving hodographs. This would support
supercells capable of all severe hazards, but that is only if
cells are able to initiate across the open warm sector. What is
more likely is storms initiating along the surface cold front by
late Friday afternoon. Storms may start out at least semi
discrete, but storms will likely grow upscale relatively quickly into
a line, becoming primarily a wind threat. However, there will
likely be embedded supercellular features within the line, and
also with 40 knots of 0-3 km shear, mesovortices will be very
much possible, especially in areas where the shear vector
becomes normal to the line. The front should move west to east
across the CWA, exiting to the east by late Friday night. Given
the likely progressive nature of the line, think widespread
heavy rainfall is unlikely. However, isolated locations could
pick up 1 to 2" of rain, and if any heavy rain moves over
locations that have been impacted by heavy rain Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, there could be some flash flooding
issues.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday behind the front
with gusty northwesterly winds. Warmer temperatures and calmer
winds start to ease back in by Sunday into Monday, with 30 to
40% chance for rain showers on Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers should finally clear east of the terminals by around 13z
to 14z this morning. Southerly winds are expected to increase
within the next hour or two, with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds
should then become southwesterly by around 16z this morning,
with sustained winds on the order of 25 knots and gusts up to 35
knots. Winds then turn westerly behind a passing cold front by
mid afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots continuing. Finally,
winds should relax by around 1z tonight, becoming north
westerly. A few brief periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible this
morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are likely through the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ008-016-017-024-025-032-033.
KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW