St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS63 KEAX 011127
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday evening. Overnight
  lows in the mid and upper 70s will not provide much relief from
  daytime heat.

* Most areas remain dry through the end of this week. There is a
  chance for weakening showers and storms over far northwestern
  Missouri each evening.

* Scattered chances for showers and storms increase this weekend and
  into early next week. Temperatures and heat indices are expected
  to return to near normal during this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is centered over the
lower Ohio Valley. Southerly flow around the high pressure has
allowed for increased moisture and temperatures each day. Winds
remain breezy overnight, which has limited the amount of radiational
cooling each night. We continue to break warm minimum temperatures
at climate sites each day. Low temperatures each day have been in
the mid and upper 70s and this will continue. This places overnight
minimum heat indices in the upper 70s and low 80s. This type of heat
overnight is not providing any relief from daytime heat. During the
day, heat indices have ranged from 103-108F (though some areas have
reached as high as 112F). This heat is expected to continue through
at least Friday, therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning continues.

Given the periphery of the ridge is located just to the northwest of
the region, daily vorticity and weakening energy will move through
far northwestern Missouri. Weakening showers and storms may move
through this portion of the area each evening through the end of the
week.

On Saturday, ridging begins to broaden out over the southern CONUS.
Confidence in extreme heat is lower during this timeframe. Though
some ensembles show a 50% chance of heat continuing through
Saturday. Given uncertainty, the Extreme Heat Warning has not been
extended into July 4th, however, we will monitor this closely.

With slightly weaker/broader ridging, daily shortwaves will move
along the periphery of the ridge and bring scattered chances for
showers and storms to the region this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF period.
High clouds will stream over the northwestern portions of the
region this morning. Winds remain steady out of the south around
9-12kts. By mid-morning, winds will pick up around 12-16kts and
gust up to about 25-28kts. This evening, winds will relax
again.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wilson
AVIATION...Wilson