St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

570
FXUS63 KEAX 142312
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to gradually climb over the next
  several days, with highs in the middle 90s forecast this
  weekend and upper 90s by next Monday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return on Thursday afternoon, with a
  40-60% chance of precipitation for areas south of Highway 36.
  These storms could pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s by
  Friday and persist into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Currently, the area remains under the influence of broad upper
high pressure, which remains anchored across much of the
central United States. This has again led to quiet weather
across much of Missouri and eastern Kansas, with light easterly
winds and temperatures in the upper 80s. Surface high pressure,
currently centered over central Iowa, is expected to remain
largely anchored in place tonight. The position of this surface
high will allow for persistent very light winds across northern
Missouri, and efficient radiational cooling should lead to
patchy fog development early tomorrow morning. The threat for
any patchy fog looks to remain generally along and north of HWY
36.

By tomorrow, a weak upper low will drift west out of the Mid-
South, on the southern periphery of the aforementioned upper
level high pressure. The approach of this shortwave should allow
for richer surface moisture to advect into southern Missouri by
tomorrow afternoon, as a weak warm front lifts northwards. It
will be near and south of this boundary where scattered shower
and thunderstorm development is expected, though it appears this
activity will remain off to the south of the area.

The richer surface dewpoints finally arrive by Thursday, as the
aforementioned weak surface boundary lifts north across the
area. Increasing instability, combined with ample diurnal
heating, should allow for scattered to widespread shower and
thunderstorm development amid a largely uncapped environment
across much of western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Forecast
soundings suggest very weak deep layer shear, with upper level
winds remaining very weak (H5 flow ~5-10kts). This suggests
little to no updraft organization and should temper the threat
for any severe weather outside of damaging winds from any wet
microbursts. That said, a general lack of dry air aloft does
cast doubt on any microburst threat for now. The more prevalent
threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall, as weak steering flow
should lead to slow storm motions. Add in PWAT values
approaching/exceeding 2" (90th percentile climo for mid-July)
and very deep warm cloud depths, any storms that form should be
efficient rainfall producers. A threat for localized flash
flooding appears possible on Thursday, and trends will continue
to be monitored closely.

Upper ridging then begins to establish again across the central
Plains by late week, with drier conditions returning by Friday
and into the weekend. This will also lead to temperatures
increasing yet again, into the middle to upper 90s this weekend
and early next week. The warmest day looks to be Monday, as
increasing warm advection ahead of an approaching boundary
brings in much warmer temperatures aloft. This could promote
temperatures nearing the 100 mark, and NBM probabilities have
increased to as high as ~30-40% for MaxT > 100F across the KC
Metro area. Unfortunately, these much warmer air temperatures
could push heat index values in the 105-110 range early next
week and lead to increasing heat concerns across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Few to scattered clouds
with cigs around 4500 ft this evening will become mostly clear
overnight. Winds turn more northeasterly overnight tonight but
stay under 10kt. Could see some patchy fog or haze in north-
central and northwestern Missouri, impacting KSTJ for a few
hours from 10-12Z. No precip expected through tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...McCoy