St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

854
FXUS63 KEAX 112014
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late
  afternoon into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging
  winds are the primary threats with this activity. Heavy rain
  will also be possible which could lead to localized flooding

- There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next
  week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to
  potential for heavy rainfall. There is considerable
  uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper
  ridge is to our southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure is shifting off the to the east
this afternoon and modest WAA has developed. That has allow for
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
Tonight, a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains
into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a trailing cold front
into the area tomorrow morning. A few showers and storms may be
possible along and ahead of this front across the western CWA
tomorrow morning (20-30%). Tomorrow, the overall pattern will
feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with a stalled frontal boundary
bisecting the area. During the late afternoon/evening hours a upper
level shortwave traveling on zonal flow aloft is progged to move
into the area which is expected to kick off another round of showers
and thunderstorms with the stalled frontal boundary as the focus.
These storms are expected to develop in an environment where 2500-
3500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available and 40-45kts of 0-6Km shear.
This will provide the potential for storms to be strong to severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Tomorrow night,
a southwestern LLJ will develop and nose into the area which will
continue the chance for stronger storms as well as the potential for
heavy rain with PWATs hovering in the 1.75-2.00" range. As such,
localized flooding cannot be ruled out. Storm chances will continue
into Sunday as quasi-zonal flow persists with several subtle
shortwave possible. This will continue the potential for flooding
particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likely.
Highs Saturday will be in the 80s. The temperatures on Sunday will
have a greater spread with cloud cover and storms keeping highs in
the mid 70s over northern Missouri but reaching the upper 80s across
the southern CWA.

Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging will build over the
Mississippi River Valley. As a warm front lifts north of the area.
This will aid in drying conditions out and allow highs to rise into
the mid 80s to mid 90s. Tuesday the upper level ridge axis move east
into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This will leave the
local area on the periphery of the ridge. Several shortwaves
rounding the ridge into the local area in the Tuesday through
Thursday timeframe looks to set up a very wet and unsettled middle
part of the next work week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF pd. Few-sct cu btn
2-3kft are fcst thru 21Z aft which sct high clouds are fcst.
Late in the pd, incr high clouds are fcst. Winds will be out of
the SSE btn 5-10kts thru 08Z-10Z when they will become lgt and
vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73