St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

708
FXUS63 KEAX 042341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
541 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to cool through late week, with chances
  (15-25%) for light rain/drizzle across northern MO
  tonight/tomorrow.

- Increasing chances (40-60%) for overnight lows at/below
  freezing Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Drier, warmer forecast by late weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The closed low situated over the western Great Lakes has not made
much progress over the last several hours. This has helped to keep
our area under a persistent pattern of low cloud cover through the
afternoon, and will remain the case as the closed low slowly shifts
northeastward. With weak ascent in the lowest levels paired with
some residual low-level moisture, could see continued chances for
sporadic, isolated mist/sprinkles through the rest of the day. As
the low lifts off towards the northeast, increasing entrainment of
drier air on the southwest edge of the cyclone will erode away at
clouds, clearing out skies overnight tonight. Despite clearing skies
and increasing subsidence with height rises behind the cyclone,
winds will remain just strong enough out of the west to prevent the
nocturnal boundary layer from decoupling substantially. This will
keep temperatures within the low 40s across the area, and
additionally mitigate any fog development overnight.

Tomorrow, a cold front will drape southeastward from the retreating
surface cyclone, shifting winds out of the north/northwest and
reintroducing low clouds to the area by the afternoon. With this
frontal boundary, some low (15-25%) chances for additional light
rain exists across northern MO, where greater moisture remains
present through the vertical profile. However, with increasing
synoptic-scale subsidence on the back edge of the retreating trough
and a building surface high during the day, the profile looks to
quickly dry out. Temperatures remain in the 50s during the daytime,
before winds shift out of the north with the oncoming surface high
and cool temperatures down more by the end of the work week.

As amplified upper-level ridging establishes itself over the central
CONUS, sustained northerly winds will provide strong CAA across the
forecast area. The current forecast shows that temperatures will
fall to the low 30s and even the high 20s Friday night into Saturday
morning. These temperatures coupled with light winds hints at
favorable conditions for frost/freeze, especially for northeastern
KS and portions of northern/central MO. Probabilistic guidance
favors temperatures falling below freezing across these areas (40-
60%) , with recent guidance trending colder. Forecast trends will
need to continue to be monitored, and the need for any headline
issuances for frost/freeze may need to be considered in the upcoming
days, especially if these trends continue.

By the weekend, broad troughing over the southwestern CONUS
gradually shifts eastward across the Gulf Coast, with low amplitude
ridging settling across the northern half of the CONUS. Increasingly
dry atmospheric profiles with building ridging from the west will
keep precipitation out of the forecast, with temperatures beginning
to warm into the 60s by the late weekend under clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR ceilings have re-established over the Metro TAF sites, while
KSTJ will see MVFR ceilings carry on for around another couple
hours before clearing. Mid-late morning Thursday will see a wing
of ceilings come back down out of Nebraska/Iowa, which should
drive KSTJ back into MVFR conditions. There is some uncertainty
on the southern edge of this MVFR deck, so have kept the metro
sites VFR for the time being, but with the hints of MVFR
potential.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Curtis