St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

827
FXUS63 KEAX 071116
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
516 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze Headlines this morning, with coolest conditions
 east of US-65 where clear skies have developed.

- Mild and dry conditions expected the first half of the
  upcoming week. Conditions are expected to remain dry, but
  cooler conditions are expected Thursday-Satuday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Broad surface high pressure across the region this morning is
expected to shift southeastward today with southwest to northeast
flow developing in the near surface layer.  This will bring the
stratus across eastern KS back into the region today.  The stubborn
cloud cover and weak flow will keep temperatures cool once again
today, and have lowered forecast highs into the low and mid 50s.

Low clouds are are expected to clear the region tonight; however,
the southwest flow will remain ahead of a weak boundary approaching
from the north. Models are hinting at the potential for patchy fog
developing across northern Missouri, but increasing high clouds
building south may limit the radiative potential, so for now, have
left the mention out of the forecast.  With dry airmass, expect
temperatures to fall back into the mid 30s across central into
eastern Missouri leading to another frosty night.

Expect warmer conditions on Sunday as 925 hpa temperatures warm 8-10
C over Saturday`s values. With just high clouds across the
region, should be a fairly pleasant fall day.

Weak boundaries associated with systems moving east across Canada
are expected to approach every few days; however, broad high
pressure across much of the lower 48 are expected to limit their
impact. A series of phased waves lead to the development of a
deepening trough mid-week across the Great Lakes into the Tennessee
Valley. While the precipitation with this system looks to remain
east of the area, cooler temperatures are expected Thursday into
next weekend are expected with north-northwesterly flow.
Temperatures moderate towards seasonal norms next weekend as trough
builds toward the east coast, but with the developing blocking
pattern, system may not be in a hurry to move east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

MVFR stratus will slowly shift east today clearing TAF sites
around 18Z, while stratus is expected to linger further east
into the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected by 00Z
Sunday area-wide, and continue through the overnight hours
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>005-
     011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046.
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT