St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS63 KEAX 030725
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
125 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of
  strong to severe storms.

- Seasonable conditions expected from midweek through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The upper system responsible for the storms and the severe weather
risk on Monday (that fortunately didn`t materialize in our forecast
area) will be slow to shift to the east today as it becomes more
negatively tilted over northeastern Kansas. As the upper low pivots
this morning, low-level flow will wrap into the surface low with
locally backed surface winds over northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri. Forecast soundings show modest, albeit
somewhat shallow CAPE with little or no inhibition by late this
morning/early this afternoon. This may result in low-topped
convection and given the very strong shear may lead to low-topped
supercells late this morning to early this afternoon. This risk
appears greatest just northeast of the apparent triple point from
far northeastern Kansas into far northwestern Missouri. There are
some caveats with this. 1) This system is almost vertically stacked,
which is less favorable than having an offset surface low and triple
point of about 100-200 miles. 2) shear is extremely strong and
mostly unidirectional, which may just rip apart updrafts.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, cooler but
more seasonable conditions settle into the area. Normal highs
for the area now in the upper 50s and our forecast shows highs
within a few degrees of our normals through the weekend. The
rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving
through the area through Saturday. The GFS continues to show a
robust wave diving into the eastern half of the CONUS. This is
considerably further east than yesterday and by early next week,
upper ridging begins to build into the area, leading to
temperatures trending above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A relatively messy TAF period expected. Initially, bands and
clusters of showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting
and moving through all TAF sites which may dramatically drop
visibilities briefly with heavier precipitation. Behind the
initial storms, additional lighter precipitation may continue
before fully subsiding. Uncertain extent of MVFR cloud cover
overnight before cold front approaches with another round of
SHRA and a fall to low-MVFR ceilings Monday late morning into
the afternoon and remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis