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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 5:57 am CDT Sep 14, 2026
 
Today

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 101. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Mostly Sunny
then Mostly
Sunny and
Breezy
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 73. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly Cloudy
then Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Low around 65. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Showers

Wednesday

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers
Likely

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday

Thursday: A chance of showers before 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Partly Cloudy

Friday

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Mostly Sunny

Hi 91 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 79 °F Lo 65 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 70 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 87 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 101. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 73. South wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 65. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS63 KEAX 141113
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of storms will bring a flooding risk,
  especially north of the Missouri River, through the middle to
  later part of the work week.

- Round 1 - Monday Morning: The severe weather threat from
  storms this morning is low, but there may be some hail to 1"
  in the strongest cells across northwestern and northern
  Missouri. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Round 2 - Monday Afternoon - Evening: There is a Slight Risk
  in far northwestern Missouri. If storms develop/ move into far
  northwestern Missouri, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
  are possible.


- Round 3 - Tuesday Afternoon - Overnight: There is a Marginal
  Risk for severe storms for Tuesday afternoon into the evening
  hours. Strong to damaging wind gusts and hail are the main
  hazards. Storms become more widespread overnight with heavy
  rainfall likely across northern Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Very active weather is expected over the first half of the work week
with multiple rounds of storms anticipated. For this morning, as of
writing this paragraph at 06Z, convective initiation is underway in
southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. This is developing in
an area of strong isentropic ascent noted from the 310K to 315K
surfaces. The threat of severe weather is low with this activity due
to only modest and elevated instability. But there may be cells that
occasionally push to near severe thresholds with hail being the main
hazard. Additionally, locally heavy rain, which will act to prime
the area for subsequent events, is likely with this activity as
ample moisture is transported into the area.

This initial activity will lift northeast through the morning hours,
leading into the next round of storms for the afternoon and evening
hours. It`s uncertain if storms will be able to develop/ overcome
the convective inhibition from the morning activity, but if they
do they will primarily affect Nebraska and Iowa. However, the
risk may bleed into northwestern Missouri with time and with
MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range with potentially 30-35kts of
deep-layer shear, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look
possible. This activity should slide south through the
overnight hours as its cold pool builds south, but will be
losing its strength as it does. But, that boundary may become
the focus for additional storms Tuesday afternoon.

An unseasonably moist airmass will build into the area south of this
boundary, with dewpoints in the lower 70s expected. Strong daytime
heating of this moist airmass will lead to potentially substantial
CAPE, possibly in excess of 2000 J/kg. With stronger mid to upper-
level flow still north of the area, deep-layer shear looks weaker.
Forecast soundings, particularly from the NAM, suggest deep mixing/
steep lapse rates will occur in the lowest 5000 ft of the
atmosphere. If storms are able to develop in this environment
damaging downbursts winds are the most likely hazard. Further north,
into the overnight hours, convection should become more widespread,
though with a more limited severe weather threat. But its this
activity that will pose the greatest risk for flooding rainfall,
with widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts across northern Missouri
possible from just this round of storms. Locally heavier
amounts are likely depending on where storms do develop and
eventually train given flow that is essentially parallel to the
boundary.

Additionally, with the hot and humid conditions anticipated, a
heat advisory may be needed for areas south of I-70 Tuesday
afternoon.

And in the 50 minutes it took to write the remainder of this,
storms have blossomed in southeastern Nebraska and northeastern
Kansas, and are moving in northwestern Missouri. So I`ll be
cutting this discussion a little short.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the period. Storms
ongoing across northern Missouri this morning expected weaken
and dissipate after sunrise. Maintained a brief PROB30 at KSTJ
for -TSRA to account for any storm developing behind the main
cluster. A warm front is forecast to move through E KS and W MO
over the course of the day...easterly winds this morning will
give way to southeasterly then gusty southerly winds by 18Z
today. Storms may be able to develop late this afternoon across
far NW MO...as the evening and overnight progresses, storm
chances will expand further south so have gone ahead and
included a PROB30 for -TSRA at KSTJ from 08Z to 11Z tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Macko
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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