St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

973
FXUS63 KEAX 270513
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Warm Up

- Another Cold Shot End of the Week

- Light Snow Potential End of Week, Minimal Accumulation if Any At All

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The last of the trough axis that aided in bringing in the Arctic
Airmass has passed through the area with subtle mid-level height
rises occurring through the afternoon. Surface anticyclone centered
over the southern Plains has sent surface ridging into our area that
has keep conditions clear and brought temperatures into the middle
teens this afternoon. There is a mid-level ridge approaching the
Intermountain West, but a weak disturbance ahead of it moving
through portions of the Front Range. This pushes the surface
anticyclone eastward and allows low level flow to remain west-
southwesterly. Tonight while skies will be fairly clear, this flow
will be enough to prevent temperatures from drastically dropping,
generally in the lower teens. We may observe some single digit
temperatures in our far northeastern zones. Tuesday and Wednesday,
most of the vorticity associated with the Canadian low stays well
northeast of the area while a few more disturbances ride through the
Front Range and High Plains. This should keep low-level flow west
southwesterly, providing WAA boosting temperatures back into the
lower 30s, perhaps mid 30s by Wednesday. Ensembles are showing some
weak signal for light precipitation Wednesday but most of this lift
is over Central Kansas and Central Nebraska. Winds Tuesday afternoon
will be breezy with gusts of 20-25 MPH possible at times.

Heading into the end of the week, H5 ridge over the western CONUS
amplifies which reinforces mid and upper-level northwesterly flow
across much of the Central CONUS. This also allows stronger
vorticity to rotate back around and further southwest into our
forecast area from the Canadian low, while a strong surface
anticyclone drops southeastward from western Canada, bringing
another shot of Arctic Air. Depending on moisture availability, we
may see light snow activity some point either Friday or Saturday.
But probabilities for any type of accumulation remain generally less
than 10 percent. This will send temperatures back down into the
teens for highs, and single digits for morning lows. Wind chills
over the weekend likely dip lower than 10 below zero for large
portion of the area, and may see a few hours of wind chills colder
than 15 below zero. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

High pressure keeps conditions mostly clear today. Expecting a
few hours of breezy winds this afternoon but should diminish
after sunset.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with clr skies giving way
to incr high clouds aft 15Z. Aft 00Z bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds
around 10kft are fcst. Winds will be out of the SW btn 8-15kts
thru 08Z-10Z before winds become lgt and vrb. Aft 15Z-16Z...winds
will become NW/NNW btn 5-10kts before again becmg lgt and vrb
aft 00Z-01Z

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...73