St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

295
FXUS63 KEAX 310419
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front will move slowly through the region from northwest
  to southeast through the daytime hours tomorrow.

- Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will
  be possible tomorrow night.

- Best chance for severe weather looks to be Friday into Friday
  night...conditions will need to be monitored.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday
  evening through Saturday.

    - Best chance for showers and storms (90 to 100%) will be
      Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 2-5" is likely, with locally
      higher amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This afternoon, record highs are being recorded with temperatures
rising into the mid to upper 80s. Strong WAA is expected to continue
tonight ahead of a cold front which is currently extends from
northeastern Nebraska back into western Kansas. This will allow lows
tonight to only fall back into the upper 50s to mid 60s which is
about 5 degrees warmer than the normal high for the end of March.
There is a slight chance (15-25%) of a few showers and perhaps
thunderstorm across northern Missouri ahead of the front late
tonight. Tonight into tomorrow a upper level shortwave will dig from
the Canadian Rockies through the extreme northern Plains and into
the far Upper Midwest. This will sag the slow moving cold front into
the area tomorrow. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms (30%-
50%) will be possible along the front during the day tomorrow
although convergence along the front will be weak. Highs ahead of
the front will reach the low to mid 80s with northwest Missouri,
where the front will pass earlier the day the "cool spot" with highs
in the low to mid 70s. Thunderstorm chances will increase tomorrow
night as a southwesterly LLJ develops and noses into the area. The
LLJ will override the surface front which will bisect the CWA by
tomorrow night. This will increase thunderstorm coverage and a few
storms may be strong enough to produce marginally severe hail as
modest instability of 1500-2000J/Kg will be available. In addition,
storms should be very efficient rainfall producers with PWATs in the
1.2"-1.4" range which is near the 90th percentile for late
March.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Storm chances will continue tomorrow night into Wednesday as the LLJ
weakens a bit but never stops nosing into the area. The surface
boundary will continue to bisect the area and will be the focus for
storm development. Highs will ridge from the 50s north of the
boundary (near Highway 36) to the lower 60s to lower 70s south.
Wednesday into Wednesday night a upper level shortwave trough will
move from the central Rockies into the central Plains. This will
force a  cold front into the area with widespread showers and
thunderstorm expected. A few storms may be strong to isolated severe
as modest instability of 1000-1500J/Kg along with 30-40Kts of
effective shear will be available. Perhaps of more concern will be
the potential for additional heavy rain as PWATs will range from
1.4"-1.6" which is in the 99th percentile for early April. Shower
chances will the continue into Thursday morning as the upper level
shortwave moves through the area before we final dry out Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with surface high pressure building
into the area. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Dry conditions will be short-lived however as Friday, a strong upper
level trough will move out of the northern Rockies into the
northern/central Plains. This will force a strong cold front into
the area Friday/Friday night with another round of thunderstorms
capable of yet another chance of heavy rain. In addition, severe
storms may be possible as the latest output for the GFS produce
MUCAPE of 2000-2500J/Kg and effective shear of 40-50Kts. This will
need to monitored as the week progresses. With several rounds of
storms capable of heavy rain possible this weak rainfall totals for
through Saturday range between 2 to up to 5 inches around the
forecast area. This may lead to minor flooding and minor to moderate
river flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions may prevail throughout the TAF period, but far
from a guarantee with storm chances and coverage expected to
increase as a cold front drops into the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. At this point, the hi-res guidance suggests the
four TAF sites on the western edge of initial development, but
confidence appears high enough to warrant prevailing at
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD, while PROB30 at KSTJ. Prior to this, S/SSW winds
remain gusty during the initial overnight hours and ahead of the
frontal passage early Tuesday afternoon. Once winds turn
northerly, breezy conditions likely to continue with sustained
teens kts and gusts into the low/mid 20s kts. Again, not
dissimilar to ongoing, but southerly, winds. Overall, winds do
gradually ease Tuesday evening/overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Curtis
CLIMATE...BT