St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

844
FXUS63 KEAX 190859
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Air Through Tuesday Morning

- Closer to Normal Temperatures Tuesday Afternoon and Wednesday

- Another Cold Air Push End of Week, With Some Snow Potential

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Strong cyclone is still sitting over the Great Lakes Region along
with mid-level trough axis. The strongest jet stream activity has
moved east of our area, though mid-level flow is still quite brisk
with notable height gradient at both H5 and H3. Strong surface
anticyclone is pushing southeastward through the Northern Plains,
and has pushed the cold front into the Ozarks Region, pushing the
Arctic Airmass into the forecast area. Stronger pressure gradient
remains in place across the lower Missouri River Valley through the
afternoon, until the center of the surface anticyclone is able to
arrive. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the entire
forecast area today. Overnight, modest dAVA pushes southeastward and
will force the center of the surface anticyclone in that direction
as well. This will reinforce cold air advection and send air
temperatures into the teens, with single digit air temps possible in
our northeastern zones near the Kirksville area.

For Tuesday, portions of the Sierra Nevada range will experience the
the arrival a mid-level ridge axis, while a PV anomaly over western
Canada sends a short-wave trough axis along the Rockies. Modest dCVA
into the Front Range will kick off Lee Cyclogenesis, and will also
push the Monday`s surface anticyclone further south and east. By the
afternoon hours on Tuesday, this will turn low-level flow southerly
and push a warmer airmass back into the lower Missouri River Valley,
brining temperatures closer to normal. The far northeast zones of
the forecast area on Tuesday may still struggle to reach above
freezing. Wednesday this short-wave trough passes over the area and
forces the weak surface cyclone across Missouri, and the warmer air
should push across the entire forecast area. Southwest portions may
see upper 40s, while northeast Missouri climbs into the upper 30s
and lower 40s. While there will be some lift, current guidance does
not depict robust moisture transport, therefore limiting
precipitation chances even though there will be a few sources for
lift. The better moisture transport will be east of the Mississippi
River Valley and then eventually wraps around back into Iowa.
Current ensemble probabilities keep precipitation southeast of the
area, and then another region across Iowa.

For the end of the work week, another short-wave is progged to move
southward, but the bulk of the forcing moves through the Upper
Midwest and toward the Great Lakes Region, considerably northeast of
the forecast area. Most of Missouri will remain on the anticyclonic
side of the jet, which will allow a surface high to begin to push
through the area, bringing a cooler airmass once again. Heading into
the weekend, model guidance spread is quite large, but overall
pattern depicts a strong cold front moving through the Central CONUS
brining sub freezing temperatures again into the weekend, with
potential for a few mid-level vort maxima to advect from troughing
over the southwestern CONUS. This may lead to the potential for snow
or some kind or wintry precipitation over the weekend. Overall
probabilities are fairly low for precipitation, but this is largely
due to timing differences amongst individual ensemble members. While
the cold front appears to quite impressive, the solutions that are
suggesting precipitation are relatively low with QPF, thus not
showing anything overly impressive for our forecast area. This will
largely be tied to how strong the mid-level forcing is for our area,
and, what the moisture return will look like.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A cold front
is moving through eastern KS and western MO currently, with
winds increasing markedly behind the front. These strong winds
are short-lived and decrease within 1-2 hours, though remaining
gusty through the remainder of the overnight hours. Winds
decrease through the day Monday, losing their gusts and backing
to the south to southwest by late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ007-
     008-017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...CDB