St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS63 KEAX 090448
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1048 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild week ahead with record highs possible on Monday.

* Rain chances return to the region late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Shortwave over northern Montana today is on the leading edge of the
northern branch of the upper level jet which looks to dominate
through much of the week and largely remain north of the region-
keeping temperatures on the warm side of seasonal norms. Lower level
reflection of this wave is expected to intensify tonight leading to
winds becoming southerly.  This will lead to low level temperatures
warming and by tomorrow afternoon 850 hpa temperatures are expected
to warm to 13-15 C. While mixing will be relatively weak with
elevated inversion, clear skies, dry airmass and southwest flow will
lead to unseasonably mild conditions. Have raised forecast highs
for Monday to near record levels at MCI and above record levels for
STJ. HREF ensemble suggests a 20-30 percent of records being broken
at MCI and a 60% chance of a new record at STJ.

Cold front associated with the wave to the north looks to build
south through the region on Tuesday morning, and while the front
looks to work through the region with little fanfare, temperatures
aloft cool ~10 C resulting in cooler conditions Tuesday amd much of
the remainder of the week.  Despite the cooler conditions,
temperatures largely remain at or above freezing south of highway
36.

Trough currently off the coast of the baja of California is expected
to make its way across the southern US into eastern TX/gulf coast
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This wave looks to remain far
enough to the south that any precipitation will mainly be contained
to the I-44 corridor and south.

First piece of energy that is part of a developing trough off the
west coast is expected to get sheared and propelled east by 150+
knot jet.  The remnants are expected to arrive into the region
Thursday into Friday creating a chance of rain across the region.
The second piece of energy is expected to move across the southern
US late week, potentially bringing a renewed threat of rain to the
region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the sites.
Light/variable winds overnight will give way to prevailing
southerly winds throughout the daytime hours, including
sustained winds to around or a bit above 10 kts and gusts to
around 20 kts by the afternoon/after 18z. Sustained winds
remain after 00z to near 10kts, including the potential for
occasional gusts into the teens kts. At the end/just after the
current TAF period, a cold front will be approaching the region
from the N/NW, which will quickly turn winds back out of the
the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Curtis