St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS63 KEAX 051851
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
151 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming Trend This Week

- Isolated Rain Possible Thursday/Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Amplifying ridge over the western CONUS with broad surface
anticyclone over the central CONUS continues to drive mild and dry
weather conditions across the area. There is a short-wave trough
driving a deeper cyclone that is centered over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces with surface troughing extending southward into the Front
Range. Over the next couple of days, this will force the center of
the surface anticyclone eastward toward the Great Lakes Region, and
will likely see some surface pressure falls start to advance into
the Central Plains. This will will push a H85 thermal ridge axis
eastward, providing southerly flow into the lower Missouri River
Valley and gradually pushes temperatures back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s. By the middle of the week the surface cyclone gets lifted
northward back into Canada, which is likely to limit surface
pressure falls into the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River
Valley. Another round dAVA with ridge axis west of the area builds
another strong anticyclone across the area, with mid-level flow
generally west-northwesterly. This is lining up to provide downslope
adiabatic compression into the High Plains, and strengthening WAA as
we get into Wednesday and Thursday. If skies continue to remain
mostly clear, stronger mixing if favored to help temperatures back
into the mid 80s across much of the area, with upper 70s in zones
close to the Iowa state line.

Later Thursday into early Friday, H5 ridge over the western CONUS
will start to break down with the potential for a mid-level vort
maxima to traverse the central CONUS. Current deterministic guidance
develops a surface cyclone east of the Rockies and pushes the
anticyclone toward the Ohio River Valley. This could provide
convergence for areas north of Interstate 70 during this time, and
perhaps could generate light rain activity. The main question will
be how much moisture actually returns to the area in the day
preceding, whether flow brings in moisture from the Gulf, or if it
is more southwesterly and brings in lower dewpoint air. Ensemble
suites continue bounce between solutions brining in rain, and stay
dry. The current forecast updates places slight chance (15-20
percent POPs) into the forecast late Thursday into Friday. For the
weekend, trough deepens and helps drive more southerly flow into the
area, which likely keeps temperatures above normal as we progress
further into Fall. However, cloud cover may limit temperatures if
the system is able to access more moisture and transport it into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions with light southeasterly winds this afternoon and
evening before becoming more south-southwesterly Tuesday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Macko