St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS63 KEAX 072334
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Rain chances return Friday.
    - 15-25% chance for North KC Metro
    - 25-40% chance for South KC Metro
    - 45-60% chance for far southern and eastern portions of the CWA

* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA
  could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being hail.

* Warming trend continues through Saturday with widespread 75+
  degree temperatures and a chance (~60%) of reaching 80F.

* Additional rain potential (70%) late Saturday PM/early Sunday AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface high pressure has led to quiet conditions across the region
today. Many areas, particularly along the MO/KS border, are on track
to see high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s later this
afternoon. Wind gusts around 25 kts have been noted throughout the
day as well. Several model soundings depict a well-mixed boundary
layer persisting through mid-evening tonight which will allow for
continued downward momentum transfer over the next several hours.

Later tonight, a shortwave will ripple through portions of the
Plains. For most, this will result in increasing cloud cover that
lasts for much of the day on Friday. North and along US-36, a brief
pocket of light rain could be possible (15-20%) Friday morning as a
surface front stalls along this corridor. This boundary will later
move south as a cold front, bringing rain chances to the Kansas City
metro by the early afternoon hours on Friday. Whether the metro is
able to reap the benefits of rain, however, is uncertain. Although
there is consensus on mid-level moisture, the same cannot be said
regarding the lower levels, thus raising questions about the quality
of the moisture column available tomorrow afternoon. Theta-E
advection struggles to spread northward behind surface high pressure
to the south, further suggesting that a replenishment of moisture
may not be in the cards. Given these concerns, PoPs have been
limited to 15-25% in the north metro and 25-40% in the south metro.
Up to about 0.1" of rain is possible, though this amount could be
higher if instability and moisture is able to surge further
northward.

Shifting focus to our southern and eastern periphery of counties,
greater rain and storm potential exists. In this vicinity lies an
area of greater frontogenetic forcing, moisture availability, CAPE,
and shear. Even so, convection that does occur would likely be
elevated due to low-level stability. Steeper lapse rates aloft could
be conducive for hail development in the strongest of storms.
Rainfall totals for this area are expected to be roughly 0.5", with
locally higher amounts possible with any isolated convective
downpours. Rain and storms should conclude by early/mid Friday
evening.

Surface high pressure builds back in rapidly in the wake of the
afternoon/evening cold frontal passage, reducing cloud cover and
shifting flow back out of the west/southwest, allowing temperatures
to warm into the mid/upper 70s. There is also a notable chance (60%)
of reaching 80F, especially along the MO/KS border. Ultimately, much
of the day on Saturday will be warm and pleasant.

The warming trend will then take a brief pause as another, stronger
cold front is expected to move through the CWA Saturday
evening/early Sunday morning. This front will provide another
opportunity for rain, primarily after dark, with the greatest
chances (>70%) occurring in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor.
Within this corridor, between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain is possible
with only a 10% chance of exceeding half an inch. Further north
and south, notable rain chances (>40%) also exist, though
confidence is more limited in these regions. Some rumbles of
thunder are possible with these showers as they move through,
but instability is quite poor with no clear destabilization
mechanism heading into the overnight hours. Thus, no severe
hazards are currently expected. Showers should clear out early
Sunday morning with comparatively cooler temperatures.

Interpretation of 500-mb cluster analysis charts increases
confidence in a calmer, warmer pattern beyond the weekend. Looking
toward the latter half of next week, while more variation is evident
in the clusters, ridging is expected to prevail, whether we continue
to sit downwind of the ridge or fall beneath the ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the forecast period. Currently
seeing some cirrus building in at terminals, with some
lingering diurnal cu present at downtown terminals. Seeing some
lingering gusts around the area, so have kept gusts persisting
at all terminals until sunset when mixing ceases. While
notable speed shear is expected in the low-levels at terminals
around 9-12z, not seeing a strong signal for significant
directional shear, so have left out mentions for LLWS. Expecting
clouds ceilings to build in tomorrow at 12z, and for winds to
shift out of the north/northwest at terminals near the end of
the forecast period. Greater confidence in the potential for
SHRA/TSRA lies further south and east of terminals, so have left
out mentions of weather.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Macko
AVIATION...SPG