St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

520
FXUS63 KEAX 111105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
605 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending warmer this week. Highs approaching 90 look possible late
  in the week.

- Chance (15-30%) for storms Tuesday. Some of these may be
  strong to severe Tuesday afternoon-evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Broad upper ridging over the western US, with broad troughing over
eastern North America, is leading to northwesterly upper-level flow
over the region currently. At the surface, high pressure passed
through earlier and is no centered roughly from western OK into
southern MO. That high will continue to shift to the southeast
today, allowing for winds to become southwesterly, starting a
general warming trend for the week. Highs today look to be about 5-
10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with the warmest temperatures
across far northwestern MO and northeastern KS.

The western ridging becomes more amplified by Tuesday, with a strong
shortwave trough tracking southeast from Northern Plains into the
Lower Ohio Valley. This will push a cold front southward through the
area Tuesday, bringing the area a chance for showers and storms,
with a low potential for strong to severe storms. Ahead of this
front, southwesterly flow will prevail, helping temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 80s. Modest moisture advection into the
area will lead to dew points climbing into the mid to upper 50
degree range ahead of the front. This allows for modest instability
to build during the day. Ensemble mean SBCAPE generally ranges from
about 800 J/kg to 1200 J/kg along and ahead of the front. This could
be as high around 2000 J/KG in eastern KS and far western MO. With a
jetstreak rounding the base of the upper-level shortwave, 0-6km
shear will be fairly strong at 40 to as high as 50 kts. Low-level
lapse rates will also become steep ahead of the front, with an
inverted-V look to forecast soundings. All this will support the
potential for damaging wind with the strongest storms. Relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates may also support some large hail in the
strongest storms that develop. There are some negatives to mention
with this setup. First, the strongest forcing aloft stays to our
north and east with the shortwave. Second, surface winds are
strongly veered, limiting convergence along the southward advancing
front. It`s uncertain we`ll actually see storms develop given the
weak convergence. Given this, the relatively low PoPs are
reasonable, until confidence increases that storms may actually
develop.

Temperatures cool slightly for Wednesday as high pressure moves over
the region. Then for the later half of the week, temperatures warm
back into the upper 80s to potentially the lower 90s. Shortwave
upper-ridging will spread east into the middle of the country
Thursday and Friday with strong southerly flow and warm/ moist
advection. The strong warm/ moist advection may also lead to
increasing precipitation chances with several opportunities. Friday
morning, a mid-level wave will move across KS and may provide enough
forcing to get some showers and storms going. A more notable
shortwave will move into the region from the west bringing
additional chances Friday night into the day Saturday. It should
also be noted that the NBM continues to be much too warm for late in
the week, forecasting well above record high temperatures for
Friday. The current forecast, while potentially still too warm, is
more representative of the anticipated warmer conditions for later
in the week and has highs touching 90 degrees for Friday and
Saturday.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light
southwesterly winds through the day. Winds then increase after
00Z to 10-12kts from the south and should stay from south
through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Macko