St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

411
FXUS63 KEAX 151845
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Powerful storm system moving the region today - Monday

    - Strong winds to 60 mph expected to continue this afternoon
      into the overnight hours.

    - Periods of snow and possible snow squalls this afternoon
      and evening leading to reduced brief reductions in
      visibility and slick spots on area roads as temperatures
      plummet this evening and tonight.

    - Temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens by
      early Monday morning, leading to wind chill values as low
      as -15 to -18 along the IA/MO state line.

* Light precipitation possible Tuesday night - Wednesday morning
  for northern/northeastern to central MO.

* Temperatures rebound Wednesday - Saturday, with record highs
  possible Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful early spring storm system is moving through the
Central/Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest this afternoon. A
very strong cold front has moved through forecast area as of 18Z,
with winds increasing markedly behind the front from the northwest.
We`ve already seen wind gusts in excess of 50 mph from late
this morning/early this afternoon. Winds will continue to
increase this afternoon through this evening as the upper-level
PV anomaly moves overhead. This will help to steepen low-level
lapse rates allowing for deeper mixing into very strong winds
aloft. This will result in wind gusts of 50-60 mph this
afternoon into the overnight hours. The strongest gusts will be
across northern MO this evening and it looks like winds begin to
decrease after 06Z from west to east as the system moves away
from the area. Despite the diminishing winds, will keep the wind
advisory going through noon Monday as it still looks windy. The
advisory can be cancelled early if needed.

Additionally, with the PV anomaly moving overhead and the resulting
steepening of low-level lapse rates, a small amount of CAPE will be
generated. This is coincident with areas of snow. Models continue to
show very high values for the snow squall parameter, with values in
excess of 6 units. This is very high and far exceeds the values we
saw during the mid-Januray snow squalls. Given all this, at least one
or more snow squalls look possible within the deformation area of
the system as it moves through later this afternoon and evening.
Snow squalls can quickly create blizzard like conditions with a
brief burst of snow reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less.
This could result in compression for travelers as they encounter
rapidly diminished visibility, potentially leading to accidents
and may also lead to slick road conditions as temperatures
drop. Precipitation will begin to diminish from west to east
between 06Z and 12Z and expect all precipitation to be east of
the forecast area by 12Z Monday. With the potential impacts on
area roads, a winter weather advisory was issued for various
start and end times to try and capture the timing trends for the
changeover to snow and the exiting of the precipitation as the
event is winding down.

The last aspect of this system is the bitter cold air surging into
the area. By early Monday morning, low temperatures will have fallen
into the single digits and teens across the area. With winds still
strong and gusty, wind chill values as low as -15 to -18 are
expected in far northern MO along the IA/MO state line. After
coordinating with neighboring offices, will hold off on any cold
weather advisory for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For the later portions of the forecast, high temperatures will surge
into the 70s and 80s. A very strong upper-level ridge will build
over western North America. This will allow temperatures warm into
the 60s and 70s on Wednesday, upper 70s on Thursday, and potentially
record breaking warmth on Friday. The record high for MCI and STJ is
82 with MCI set in 1953 and STJ set in 1934. Our current forecast
ties the record for MCI and breaks it for STJ. These temperatures
are more akin to late May and early June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

There is high confidence in prevailing low MVFR to IFR cloud
bases and strong northwest winds (speeds of 20 to 30 kt with
gusts to 45 kt) through at least 02z. However, lower confidence
continues with visibility, potentially varying between VFR and
MVFR during periods of snow and blowing snow (expected between
19z and 04z). The end time of the snow is also low confidence,
as model output has varied considerably for the past several
hours. Thereafter, winds will continue to be quite strong
through the night, gradually decreasing to 15 to 25 kt with
gusts 30 to 35 kt by 12z Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-012-
     020-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020-021-028-029-037.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020-028.
     Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for MOZ025-029>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-013>017-
     021>024.
     Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-
     013>017-021>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ005>008-
     014>017-022>025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ030>033-
     038>040-046.
KS...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-
     102>105.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103.
     Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for KSZ057-060-104-105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...CMS