St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS63 KEAX 121130
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
530 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend.  Hard
freeze Saturday morning.

- Temperatures returning at or slightly above seasonal norms
  next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Surges of arctic air continue to plunge southward across the central
US behind area of low pressure over eastern Ohio.  The next push of
arctic air is anticipated to arrive this morning, and 925 hpa
temperatures are expected to fall to near 0 C.  Despite
unidirectional winds leading to mixing to near 850 hpa, the
cooling temperatures aloft will only lead to a five to seven
degree diurnal curve across northern Missouri, and closer to 10
degrees of warming across central Missouri today. Lingering
moisture will lead to cumulostratus development east of highway
65 which is expected to rapidly dissipate with the loss of
solar heating tonight.

The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the
season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most
locations. A light north breeze through the night will push wind
chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated
locations.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region on
Friday keeping temperatures below seasonal norms for this time of
year. Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning
will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and
a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less
than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).

Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of
rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will
likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any
precipitation chances south.

Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms early next week with
omega block developing across the central US keeping the region dry
through the first half of the week.  West coast trough eventually
weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light
rain late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail; however, there may be an
hour or two east of highway 65 where cumulostratus develops
~15-16Z that is on the higher end of MVFR. Marginally gusty
north winds will prevail throughout the day today, decreasing
rapidly near sunset. RAP model suggests the potential for MVFR
stratus after 09Z Friday morning, but is not supported by other
models, so for now, left mention at few or less.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT