St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

023
FXUS63 KEAX 211121
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Next chance for precipitation (20-30%) will be Wednesday into
  Thanksgiving. Wintry precipitation may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

This morning through most of today, the forecast area will be wedged
between a surface low to the east that will be dropping south
through the western great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley and a
surface ridge of high pressure building into the Great Plains. This
will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area and make a
blustery and cool day with highs in the 40s and northwest winds
gusting 25 to 35 mph. Tonight the surface ridge of high pressure
over the Great Plains will shift eastward into the local area. Winds
will not be completely calm however, otherwise it will be a good
radiational cooling setup making for one of the coolest night of the
season thus far with lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The
surface ridge of high pressure will remain the dominant feature
through Friday into Friday night. Weak mixing Friday will keep highs
on the cool side in the mid 40s to lower 50s. And, another decent
radiational cooling setup on Friday night will again allow lows to
drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Saturday, the surface ridge of
high pressure will shift southeast of the area with modest WAA
getting underway at the surface with subtle height rises aloft. This
will allow highs to move back above normal into the 50s. Sunday, the
flow aloft become zonal with continue WAA at the surface ahead of a
approaching cold front. This will allow highs to move way above
normal into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The aforementioned cold front
will shift through the area Sunday night. Moisture will be lacking
so the frontal passage is expected to be dry. However, strong CAA
behind the front Sunday night into Monday will make for a much
cooler day on Monday with highs in the 40s. Surface high pressure
will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday under continued
zonal flow aloft. Weak mixing will keep temperatures cool on Tuesday
will highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The best chance (20 to 30 percent) for precipitation during this
forecast resides in the Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day timeframe.
However, mid range models have not had very good run to run
consistency and still have not come into agreement into how to
handle an approaching upper level trough. The 21/00Z GFS is much
more progressive with a upper level trough moving through the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday into Wednesday
night keeping the precipitation chance shunted to the south. The
21/00Z EC is advertising a much deeper upper level trough that would
dig through the central Rockies and into the central Plains
Wednesday into Thursday before moving through the area Thursday
night. This solution would produce a rain to snow scenario with
accumulating snow possible Thanksgiving Day into Thanksgiving night.
This system will certainly need to be monitored as it may produce
hazardous driving conditions on one of the biggest travel days of
the year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with a few-sct clouds around
3kft poss thru 23Z aft which clr skies will prevail. Winds will
be out of the NW around 15kts with gusts to 25kts thru 23Z aft
which winds will subside, dmshg to 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73