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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
| Updated: 2:47 pm CDT Sep 15, 2026 |
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This Afternoon
 Showers Likely
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Tonight
 Showers
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Wednesday
 Heavy Rain then Chance Showers
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Wednesday Night
 Mostly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Thursday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Friday
 Sunny
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Friday Night
 Partly Cloudy then Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Chance Showers then Chance T-storms
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| Hi 85 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
Hi 81 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
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Flood Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook
This Afternoon
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Tonight
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 66. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. |
Wednesday
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers between 10am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 70. |
Friday
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Sunny, with a high near 88. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Saturday
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A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. |
Monday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 70. |
Monday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. |
Tuesday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 70. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Saint Joseph MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
675
FXUS63 KEAX 151936
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
236 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO
through tomorrow morning. Heavy downpours are expected which
may lead to flash flooding as well as river flooding. A Flood
Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC
metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.
- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around
80 and central MO in the mid 90s. There is the potential for
some hazardous heat across central and southern MO and
tomorrow and Thursday as heat index values approach
100F-105F.
- Additional rounds of storms area expected this weekend which
may lead to additional flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
The main concern in the short term is the potential for heavy
rainfall late this afternoon through tomorrow morning potentially
leading to flash and river flooding. In addition there will be the
chance for a few strong storms late this afternoon through this
evening that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The
focus for these storms and the heavy rainfall will be a slow moving
cold frontal boundary. This boundary is slowly sagging into the
area, and is currently extending from Unionville to St Joseph early
this afternoon. This front is expected to continue to slowly sink
south through the afternoon. Light showers and cloud cover had
persisted north of this boundary creating an area of differential
heating where temperatures have achieved the low to mid 90s ahead of
the boundary and 70s north. The environment ahead of the front is
moderately unstable with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000J/Kg range
however, the stronger effective shear lags behind the boundary. As
such, the main threat with strongest storms that develop late this
afternoon into the evening will be capable of localized damaging
winds and brief small hail. What is the biggest concern however, is
the threat for heavy rainfall that trains along and north of the
boundary this evening through the overnight. PWATs are near record
values Betteann 2.20"-2.40" so storms will be extremely efficient
with rainfall totals of 2-4" forecast for portions of northeastern
Kansas and NW Missouri. This will lead to a flood threat
particularly for areas of NE KS/NW MO that received 4-7" of rain
yesterday morning. As such a flood watch is in effect for these
areas through early tomorrow afternoon.
Storms are expected to continue through the overnight tonight fueled
by a southwesterly 30-35kt LLJ nosing into the area. The LLJ is
progged to weaken tomorrow morning allowing showers to dissipate.
Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow morning the frontal boundary will
lift back north across the CWA as a warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected with this feature as it lifts north with
the best chances for storms (25-35%) along and north of Highway 36
corridor. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s south of
the Missouri River, where the warm front will pass earlier in the
day, to the mid 70s across northern Missouri where the warm front
won`t lift through until tomorrow night. Thursday into Thursday
night looks to remain mostly dry and warm with the war front north
of the area. Highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Heat
index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees
with a heat advisory possibly being necessary.
The upper-level ridge will shift slightly back toward the south-
central US, drying things out briefly Friday morning and lifting
high temperatures into the 90s. However, this will be short-lived,
as an upper-level trough and surface cold front move into our region
Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain along the front. PWAT
values from the GFS range from 1.5-2.0 inches for Saturday and
Sunday, which fall in the 90th percentile for climatology. This, on
top of the rain we could see earlier in the week, may increase the
risk of flooding, especially in NW MO. By Monday, the cold front
moves out and high pressure moves in bringing cooler and drier
weather with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
VFR conds will prevail thru 23Z-00Z when mod tsra will move into
the into the terminals. Storms are expected to cont at the TAF
sites thru 13Z-15Z with reduced vis to 3-5SM. Cigs will remain
VFR thru 00Z when bkn cigs around 4kft are fcst (except STJ
which will become MVFR aft 23Z). We will then see a gradual
lowering of cigs thru the evening with cigs dropping into MVFR
around 03Z-05Z and into IFR btn 06Z-08Z. Winds to begin the TAF
pd will be out of the W around 10kts (except STJ which will
begin he TAF northerly) becmg northerly around 10kts aft 00Z.
By 03Z-05Z winds will shift to the east while remaining around
10kts.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015-
020>022-028-029-037.
KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73/IPC
AVIATION...73
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