St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS63 KEAX 150524
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Quiet weather with mild temperatures through Monday.

* Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3
  out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non-
  thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts
  possibly exceeding 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Drier air and high pressure is building into KS/MO today and
should be centered over MO tonight. Diurnal cumulus clouds have
already developed under the light northwest flow. High pressure
will remain across the central US through Monday night before
beginning to exit to the east. Overnight lows tonight are
expected to be in the low to mid 50s with light and variable
winds. Highs temperatures are expected to climb into the upper
70s to low 80s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Heading into the midweek there will be a couple chances for
rain and thunderstorms. The first of which kicks off Tuesday
with low chances (10-25%) in the morning and again during the
overnight hours. Aloft there will be a trough swinging through
the north central CONUS with some PVA ejecting out into the
Central Plains. There is still some uncertainty in how much lift
there will be aloft between deterministic and ensemble
guidance. From the deterministic side its most easily seen with
looking at the GFS & Euro vs the NAM. The NAM is much further
south with a potential for the upper level jet to nose into
northern MO. The jet streak is expected to be on the weaker side
for 500mb around 60 kts. The discrepancies here may really just
mean the difference between scattered vs widespread
rain/storms. In the mid levels and low levels storms seem to be
routed to and just ahead of a weak passing cold front.
Instability looks to be weaker overall with dewpoints expected
to be in the 50s maybe low 60s if you squint at the right
ensembles. Just lacking moisture and instability needed for any
stronger storms at this time.

Wednesday looks like a far better chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms for eastern KS and MO. A 500 mb trough will swing from
roughly Alberta, CA into the southern Great Lakes before pulling
across the northeastern CONUS. A very similar path to the trough on
Tuesday, but stronger and slightly further south. This should
provide the area with better upper level lift for storms. Moisture
and instability should be much better as WAA returns to the area.
Sticky and warm weather with breezy sfc winds. Dewpoints in the low
70s with high temps back in the upper 80s to low 90s is expected.
SPC has already outlooked the area with a 30% probability for severe
weather. Given the set up this is gearing up to be another round of
late afternoon to late evening/overnight thunderstorms with all
hazards possible. Its still a little early to give any more
specifics such as specific areas, timing and intensities with
any of this convection. Will for sure be a time period to keep
an eye on though.

Thursday and Friday look be quieter as the upper level trough and
sfc low move east northeast out of the area and high pressure builds
in behind it. The next chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to
move through late Saturday through Sunday with 50-60% chances. There
remains some uncertainty in timing and strength of the next system.
Deterministic 500 mb models show this well (GFS, Euro and
Canadian) with just drastically difference scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered mid level clouds will pass east overnight with clear
skies for Monday. Light/variable winds tonight will become
westerly 5-10 kts late morning then south in the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Patterson
LONG TERM...Patterson
AVIATION...Borghoff