St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS63 KEAX 121959
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures and humidity levels along with
  dry weather are expected today and Monday.

- A warmup is forecast to begin Tuesday and continue through
  the end of the week.

- Dry conditions are expected the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today:
An upper vort max pushes southwest along the periphery of a
building high pressure across the Midwest this afternoon,
providing a source of lift for some fair weather cumulus clouds
amidst an otherwise subsident pattern. With this northeast flow,
slightly cooler and drier air has moved into the area, with a
pleasant day unfolding. Highs will reach into the upper 80s this
afternoon, with lows tonight in the mid- to upper 60s.

Temperatures:
Dry and seasonable weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid- to upper
60s as ridging continues to push east across the central CONUS.
NBM temperature spreads begin increasing after Tuesday,
especially between the 50th and 75th percentiles. Warming will
be gradual earlier in the week and ramp up late week into the
weekend, with a return to southerly low-level flow WednNE
Kansas/NW Missouri National Weather Service Kansas Ciesday
bringing highs back into the mid-90s by Thursday. Southerly flow
will also mean some additional moisture will return to the
area, with dew points starting to increase into the weekend as
well. Dew point temperature spreads are highest on Wednesday
this week with some questions about northward extent of moisture
return linger, but areas along and south of the Missouri River
will start to see heat indices near or above 100 degrees again
on Thursday and into the weekend.

Precip Chances:
Overall precip chances are low (<10%) this week with ridging
centered over the Central Plains suppressing widespread
convection. Low pressure at 250mb will become cut off from
broader troughing over the East Coast by midweek, getting stuck
over Texas and Oklahoma in a quasi-rex block pattern amidst what
would otherwise be a textbook Omega Block formation. This low
will bring precip chances to portions of the South this week,
but overall models trends continue to suggest a maximum PoP for
the week of 10% along the southern CWA line on Wednesday and
Thursday. The upper low loses its steam and fizzles out after
that, just in time for the ridge to begin breaking down as
another trough pushes east into the Midwest into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR through the TAF period at all TAF sites besides KSTJ, which
may see another period of MVFR fog on Monday morning. Light
5-10kt east-northeasterly winds through the period, with some
afternoon fair weather cumulus streets this afternoon before
skies clear again tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Camden
AVIATION...Camden