St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

385
FXUS63 KEAX 272053
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon through
  Monday with all modes of wintry precipitation possible.

- Unsettled weather pattern sets up next week with several
  rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Any severe
  threat appears low but flooding may be an issue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

This afternoon high fire danger conditions are occurring across the
area with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints in
the 25-35 range yielding RH values in the 15-25% range. The dry
conditions coupled with winds out of the SW/W gusting to 20-30 mph
have prompted a Red Flag Warning to be in effect from 1PM-6PM. This
evening, winds will subside as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds into the area and relative humidity values will increase
bring the high fire danger conditions to an end. Tomorrow a upper
level trough digging from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest
will force a cold front through the area. Moisture will be meager
with this front but a few showers may be possible along and south of
the Highway 50 corridor tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Highs will
range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern CWA where the
cold front passes earlier in the day to the low to mid 70s across
the south.

Sunday, provides an extremely tricky winter weather forecast. The
setup depicts cold air in place with temperatures Sunday morning in
the mid 20s to mid 30s. The cold front that moves through the area
Saturday will become stationary across northern OK through northern
Arkansas. A southerly LLJ will increase and nose into the area as a
700mb trough moves into the area from the central Plains. Moisture
will spread north into the cold air with additional lift provided by
the shortwave late Sunday morning/afternoon. P-type across the area
is extremely tricky due to temperature profiles near and at the
surface. Model soundings suggest areas along and south should remain
warm enough to remain above freezing at the surface and with rain
and perhaps sleet to be the main precipitation type. Further north
across northern Missouri (Highway 36 and north), the warm nose is
not as pronounced with snow the main p-type at initiation. In
between, model soundings produce all p-types for a true wintry mix.
These conditions are expected to persist into the overnight Sunday
night however, as we get into Monday morning temperatures are
forecast to rise. However, northern Missouri is still expected to
remain below freezing and with no moisture in the dendritic snow
growth zone Monday morning, precipitation may continue to fall
as freezing drizzle across northern Missouri where light rain or
drizzle remains possible further south on Monday with highs rising
into the 40s by Monday afternoon.

The pattern continues to remain active next week as several chances
for precipitation will be possible. Fortunately, temperatures are
expected to be warm enough for precipitation to be all in liquid
form. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s
and will rise into the 60s to near 70 by Thursday. The NBM produces
PoPs for every period Tuesday through Thursday due to timing
differences in the systems produced by the different models
however, there will be breaks in the rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with just ocnl few-sct high
clouds. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the W btn
10-15kts thru 23Z-01Z when winds become lgt and vrb. Winds will
then incr out of the E/ESE aft 08Z-10Z to 5-10kts and then veer
to the SE and incr to 10-15kts aft 13Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73