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St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Saint Joseph MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Saint Joseph MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 6:02 pm CDT Mar 10, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 4am, then showers likely after 4am.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 40. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Partly Cloudy
then Showers
Likely

Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers before 10am.  Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 51. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Breezy.
Chance
Showers then
Decreasing
Clouds
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable  after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Clear


Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph.
Sunny then
Mostly Sunny
and Breezy

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Partly Cloudy
and Breezy

Friday

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Partly Sunny


Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Mostly Cloudy


Saturday

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Partly Sunny


Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of rain after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Partly Cloudy
then Chance
Rain

Lo 40 °F Hi 51 °F Lo 29 °F Hi 60 °F Lo 42 °F Hi 58 °F Lo 38 °F Hi 70 °F Lo 37 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 4am, then showers likely after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 40. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming north in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers before 10am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 51. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 29. North northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.
Friday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Saturday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 70.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
 
A chance of rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Blustery.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Monday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Tuesday
 
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Saint Joseph MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
885
FXUS63 KEAX 102326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms will develop across portions of eastern Kansas
 and west central Missouri into northeastern Missouri through
 sunset.

-Large Hail, greater than golf ball size, and damaging wind
 gusts are the primary concerns. Tornado risk greatest with the
 initial storms that develop.

-Isolated heavy rainfall may increase flooding concerns,
 especially in urban and low lying areas as more widespread
 rainfall spreads across the region overnight.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Through 1 PM, temperatures across the region have pushed well into
the upper 70s F, with a few lower 80s F reported south of the
Missouri River. Surface analysis reveals a surface trough stretching
from central Kansas into west-northwest Missouri. The associated
surface boundary remains rather stalled along the MO/IA border. With
the region well within the warm sector, the latest ACARS sounding
from KMCI reveals a sharpened inversion around 850mb. At the
surface, dew points have easily reached the lower 60s F and surface
based CAPE computations place a broad swath of instability between
2500 to 3000 J/Kg from southeast KS across much of Missouri. With
the capping inversion expected to hold strong and the lack of a
focused forcing mechanism through the afternoon, convective
development is expected to hold this afternoon.

This evening, beginning around 6 to 7 PM, with the push of the cold
front toward the Missouri River providing focused forcing for
ascent, convective initiation is expected from east central Kansas,
south of the MO River and northeast into NE MO/SE IA. CAMS have
hinted at this scenario much of the morning and this remains true
through early this afternoon. The initial updrafts that develop will
be isolated, supercellular structures, tapping into the available
instability and shear environment. This would mean all modes of
severe are possible, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The
good news, given the mean wind will be oriented parallel to the
front, storms are likely to cluster quickly, through 8 to 9 PM,
forming into a more linear structure as storms move east-southeast
with the advancing front. As this transition occurs, damaging wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the more widespread
hazard concern overnight. The risk for a spin up tornado cannot be
ruled out, but any risk would be isolated. Strong the severe storms
will push east and southeast of central Missouri through 2 to 3 AM.

Through the remainder of Wednesday morning, with the eastward
advance of the upper low, across the Southern Plains, a broad
baroclinic zone will develop with support from the LLJ,
resulting in more widespread showers and storms across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri. This activity will persist through
Wednesday morning. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will
likely exist within the activity, potentially increasing
localized flooding concerns.

For the remainder of the work week, temperatures will settled near
normal, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s as high pressure settles
through Thursday before a cold front passes Friday morning.
Temperatures warm up into the 60s and 70s Saturday, ahead of the
next trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains. As that
system dives into the Mid and Lower Missouri Valley, a strong cold
front will move through the region. This system will also bring the
next chance for precipitation to the area on Sunday with some
potential for light snow across northern MO. This will greatly
depend on just how much cold air is able to spill into the area. In
the wake of this system, chilly conditions will prevail for the
first part of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Thunderstorms are moving into the Kansas City Metro area, and
will impact KMKC and KIXD in the first hour of the TAF period.
Beyond this initial round, shower and thunderstorm activity will
persist across the TAF sites overnight. Windy southwest
conditions will become more northerly with the passage of the
cold front later this evening. Expect brief periods of MVFR
conditions in thunderstorms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Kurtz
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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