St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXUS63 KEAX 032003
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
203 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible this evening into Wednesday morning,
  mainly south of a Olathe to Moberly line. Quarter size hail
  is the most likely hazard.

- Showers and storms linger through much of the day Wednesday.
  No strong or severe storms are expected Wednesday afternoon-
  evening.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday late afternoon and
  evening. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard but can`t
  rule out a few tornadoes and hail as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

For this evening and overnight into tomorrow morning, strong
storms are possible. Latest observational data suggest the
surface warm front is just south of Clinton, MO at 18Z.
Satellite imagery shows the low stratus breaking up and CU
developing from Linn CO, KS to Henry CO, MO. This is likely
about as far north as the surface warm front makes it. So the
the best SBCAPE will reside south of the forecast area this
afternoon. However, MUCAPE values north of the front may climb
into 750-1500 J/KG range this evening and overnight. Forecast
soundings show this is all elevated, though with some weak
inhibition present. Isentropic ascent will increase this evening
and overnight as a weak shortwave trough moves east into the
Plains. This increase in forcing up and then north of the warm
front, will likely tap into the modest instability noted above.
It also seems likely that the forcing will overcome the limited
inhibition. The result will be an increase in coverage of
showers and storms. Despite any parcels being elevated, there
remains strong shear above 1km. So a few strong storms are
possible with quarter size hail possible.

Showers and storms will linger through the day Wednesday as that
shortwave trough slowly tracks east through the region. Instability
looks fairly weak with higher CAPE values to our south and east. So
the threat of anything strong or severe looks fairly low at this
time. There will be a period of subsidence behind the wave on
Thursday so most of the area should stay dry through the day.

The next, stronger system will start to affect the region Thursday
night into Friday morning. As this deeper trough moves into the Four-
Corners region late Thursday night, strong southerly flow will
develop and advect copious amounts of moisture northward. This
strong warm and moist advection may lead to early morning showers
and storms before the true warm sector settles into the area. Can`t
rule out some stronger storms with this warm advection activity,
but the amount of instability will be a limiting factor. The
warm sector likely becomes capped in the wake of the morning
activity which help to build stronger instability heading into
the afternoon and particularly the evening hours, though even
this is still highly variable at this point in time. By late
afternoon/ early evening, the surface boundary may be poised
just to our west across eastern KS. As this front pushes east,
thunderstorms are likely to move into the area. Models show the
shortwave energy moving northeastward into Nebraska and Iowa.
But the entire forecast area should reside in the right-rear
quadrant of the upper jetstreak rounding the base of the
shortwave. This is still a favorable area for upper diffluence.
Additionally, with strong wind fields through the column, shear
will be very strong. 0-6KM shear may be pushing 50kts across the
boundary. 0-3km shear near 40-45kts also looks likely. The
limiting factor may be the instability as the timing of when
storms affect the area, after 00Z Saturday, may limit the
available instability. That said, with strong forcing, favorable
jet dynamics, and strong shear, the threat of severe storms
remains. Damaging winds look like the most likely hazard, but
given the strong 0-3km shear, can`t rule some tornadoes as well.
Hail looks less likely given the storm mode may be linear as
its moving into the forecast area. And the rapid progression of
the front should limit potential for flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

High confidence in IFR conditions prevailing through the entire
forecast due to mainly ceilings consistently below 500-800 ft.
Visibility will vary between MVFR and IFR. Winds remain steady
from the northeast through the forecast with off and on light
precipitation.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB