St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

934
FXUS63 KEAX 240818
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonally warm conditions continue through the
  weekend and into next week. Temperatures fluctuate some
  during the week, with more notable cooling likely by late
  week.

- Precipitation chances continue to trend drier (<20 percent)
  Monday/Tuesday. Additional chances (15-30 percent) at times
  Wednesday/Thursday, but best chances (>35-40 percent) may hold
  off until Friday/next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Overall quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue through
the weekend and into next week, albeit with some temperature
regression at times as we work through the new work week.
Precipitation chances early-mid week continue to trend down/dry,
pushing best widespread precipitation chances into next weekend when
the large scale pattern looks to become more active and favorable
through the region.

Currently, not much notable change in conditions vs 24 hours ago
over the immediate area. The mid-level/500mb ridge has shifted
subtly eastward, its axis now centered over the area and up into the
western Great Lakes, resulting in a general uptick in, but still
largely scattered, mid-upper level cloud cover. Through the weekend,
central CONUS ridge will begin to de-amplify in response to northern
stream shortwave activity and continue to gradually shift eastward
with the approach of cut-off low currently over the California-
Mexico border (seen nicely on WV imagery). Deterministic and
ensemble guidance remain in strong agreement in the overall
progression of these features, which will eventually result in a
surface boundary draped over portions of the central to northern
Plains, but north of the CWA. Overall this leaves the immediate area
remaining under the influence of the mid-level ridge and the western
reaches of the large eastern CONUS surface high. All to say, expect
more of the same quiet, dry, and seasonally warm conditions. Highs
predominantly in the upper 70s to low 80s and southerly prevailing
winds.

Aforementioned mid-level cut-off low will move through the
Intermountain West and become an open wave by Monday, and continue
to break down the mid-level ridge. Model trends continue to push the
best lift and surface features W and NW of the area, resulting in
the continued drying trend for PoPs originally over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening. This also will continue
the seasonally warm conditions, albeit likely a couple degrees
cooler with an uptick in cloud cover for at least western portions
of the CWA. By Tuesday, mid-level pattern becomes more southwesterly
over the region but tends to lack any significant shortwaves or low-
level moisture return until latter portions of the week. A depicted
shortwave Tuesday is most poised to result in increasing cloud cover
and highs falling into the lower 70s before rebounding some
Wednesday and Thursday. By this point, ensemble guidance begins to
diverge more notably, attempting to resolve surface boundary
location and any subsequent precip potential. This is readily noted
via NBM 25th/75th MaxT spreads jumping from only 3-4 deg F on
Wednesday to 9-12 deg F Thursday. Meteograms suggest that even if
the boundary finds itself over the area, precipitation amounts would
be light. The best chances for appreciable and widespread
precipitation continues to get pushed back toward next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions with southeast winds through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...BT