St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS63 KEAX 032323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

- A conditional marginal severe weather threat exists for
  Wednesday evening into Wednesday night with damaging winds and
  large hail the main threats.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday
  and Friday...severe weather not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Benign weather with warming conditions will continue this afternoon
through tomorrow. This afternoon a surface ridge that was parked
over the local area the past 24 hours is sliding east of the CWA and
modest WAA has developed in its wake. This will allow highs to top
out in the mid to upper 80s today. Tonight a upper level trough will
dig through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing an
attendant surface front toward the CWA which will be located along a
line from central Iowa to southeast Missouri to central Kansas by
tomorrow morning. This front will very slowly progress south and
east tomorrow the area during the day tomorrow. Continued modest WAA
out ahead of the front will continue the warming trend for tomorrow
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A reinforcing upper level
shortwave rounding the base of the trough over the northern Plains
will force the cold front into the northern CWA Tuesday night. This
will bring the next chance of thunderstorms to northern Missouri on
Tuesday night for areas north of the Missouri River (15%-30% from
the Missouri River to Highway 36 to 30-50% for areas from Highway 36
to the MO/IA border). Shower and storms and residual cloud cover may
linger through the morning on Wednesday however, current thinking is
conditions will clear out for the late morning and afternoon
particularly along and south of the front. This will create a wide
temperature spread across the area on Wednesday with highs in the
upper 70s across northern Missouri behind the front but will rise
into the mid 80s to lower 90s south of the front. This will create a
conditional marginal severe threat Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night south of the front where MUCAPE values are expected to reach
1500-2500J/Kg with effective shear of 45-55kts, damaging winds and
large hail will be the main threats. Storms are expected to continue
through the overnight before the front exits the area Thursday
morning.

Thursday and Friday the upper level flow will feature weak upper
level troughing across the Great Lakes with amplified upper level
ridging over much of the western CONUS. This will leave the local
area on the lee side of the ridge. Weak shortwave round the ridge
Thursday and Friday will continue storms chances each day (20-40%)
with greater chance across the southern CWA. Saturday the upper
level ridge over the western CONUS begins to build eastward with the
local area coming under its periphery will will allow for drier and
warmer conditions for the weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be
in he 80s but will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday
and into the low to mid 90s by Sunday.

&&


.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Clear skies
overnight will give way to increasing high-level clouds tomorrow
with light winds shifting to the south around 10-12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB