St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

933
FXUS63 KEAX 160421
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1121 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday. Highs will
  range in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- A few chances for widely scattered storms (20-30%) on Monday
  afternoon/evening to scattered showers and storms (up to
  40%)on Tuesday afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected.

- An unsettled pattern arrives Wednesday with better chances for
  more widespread showers and storms through the end of the
  work-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Today, the axis of the upper level ridge that brought the well above
normal temperatures to the area this weekend has slid just east of
the area. However, the area will remain under its influence allowing
temperatures to continue to move well above normal with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Also, today, a slow moving upper level
trough is digging through the central Rockies. Several lead
shortwaves will eject out ahead of the the main upper trough this
evening through Tuesday bringing the chance for widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) this evening/tonight and again
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. A few of these storms today
could be capable of producing localized gusty winds across central
Missouri where models suggest afternoon/evening instability could
reach 2000/3000J/Kg of MUCAPE. However, widespread severe weather is
not anticipated due to very weak shear. Storms on Tuesday are not
expected to be strong to severe despite temperatures again moving
well above normal with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The extended forecast continues to look unsettled as the
aforementioned upper level trough over the central Rockies will move
out into the High Plains. As it does, it will develop a closed low
in the base of the trough further slowing its already slow eastward
progression. This upper level trough will then slowly move across
the central/northern Plains Wednesday through Saturday allowing for
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through that period.
Fortunately, recent dry conditions will preclude any flooding
concerns and severe weather is not anticipated. This upper trough
will also help usher in a cold front on Wednesday. This in tandem
with the storms and cloud cover will cool conditions off. Highs on
Wednesday will still rise into the mid 80s to low 90s ahead of the
front however, highs will cool to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the
rest of the forecast period (through next weekend).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail. Light and variable
winds too expected to prevail throughout the period, with the
caveat of any storm outflows Tuesday afternoon/evening. CAMs
have tended to ease off recently with regards storm coverage
tomorrow, but with most likely area remaining central to
western Missouri, have carried PROB30s with this issuance,
pushing them a bit later, around 21z through around 02z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis