St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS63 KEAX 312007
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will move northwest to southeast through the
  region late morning through the afternoon and evening hours.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely (50 to
  80%) late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected (90 to 100%)
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Locally heavy
  rainfall will be possible. Strong to severe storms are
  possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Another round of showers and storms are likely (60 to 90%)
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Strong to severe
  storms will be possible once again.

- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is likely across the
  region between tonight and Saturday, with isolated higher
  amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Very active weather pattern begins tonight and will continue through
Friday night/Saturday. Today, a surface cold front is sagging into
the forecast area in response to a upper level trough moving from
the southern Canadian Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This
front will become the focus for convection tonight. This front is
forecast to stall near the southern boundary of the forecast area.
Tonight, a southwesterly 40-45kt LLJ will develop and nose into the
area. This will override the front and allow elevated convection to
develop north of the frontal boundary. Modest instability with 1500-
2000J/Kg of MUCAPE will exist across the area which may be enough to
produce strong to isolated severe storms capable of hail. Storms
will also be capable of heavy rainfall as PWATs between 1.25-1.50"
will be in place which is in the 90th percentile for late
March/early April. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into
Wednesday as the LLJ weakens but still remains focused on the area.
The frontal boundary, during the day Wednesday will begin to lift
slowly northward across the CWA in response a surface low lifting
northeastward across Kansas during the day. This will cause a wide
temperature spread across the CWA tomorrow with highs in the mid to
upper 50s north to the mid to upper 70s south. The lingering
convection on Wednesday will play a large role in the severe
potential Wednesday afternoon/evening. This round of severe weather
is conditional as to if we can clear out enough to realize the
instability. More robust models produce 2000-2500J/Kg of MUCAPE in
addition to 40-50kts of effective shear, and steep mid and upper
level lapse rates. This would create conditions capable of
supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. If we do remain stable however, the severe potential
would decrease. Of greater confidence is a round of storms tomorrow
night that could produce severe weather.  Tomorrow night, a slightly
negatively tilted mid-level trough will move into the central Plains
forcing a strong cold front into the area. Storms are expected to
line up along the front tomorrow night with damaging winds the main
threat with the chances for a few tornadoes embedded in the line. In
addition to the severe threat Wednesday...another round of heavy
rain will be likely with PWATs in the 1.4-1.6" range which would be
in the 99th percentile for early April. As such flooding will be a
concern Wednesday into Wednesday night.Storms are expected to exit
the area Thursday morning although some afternoon reintensification
cannot be ruled out with better chances looking to reside east of
the forecast area. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 60s to mid
70s. Dry conditions look to prevail late Thursday through Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A dry stretch late Thursday into Friday morning will be shortlived
however, as a strong upper level trough moves into the
northern/central Plains on Friday. This will force a cold front into
the area Friday afternoon/evening. Very moist conditions with
dewpoints in the 60s, and strong instability with MUCAPE values
between 2500-3000J/Kg will provide the fuel for yet another round of
severe storms capable of damaging winds. PWATs in the 1.4-1.6" range
will again produce another round of heavy rain which may cause or
exacerbate any ongoing flooding. This system should move east of
the area by Saturday morning although the slower EC solution does
hold showers in the eastern CWA on Saturday. CAA will be ushered
into the area on Saturday holding highs in the 50s. High pressure
will build into the area Saturday night which will provide a good
radiational cooling setup. This may allow freeze conditions to occur
for part of the CWA with lows falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
High pressure will then reside over the area Sunday into Monday with
highs in the 50s Sunday and into the 60s Monday.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conds with sct clouds around 5kft and bkn-ovc high clouds
abv are fcst thru 21Z-22Z when mid-lvl clouds will move into
the TAF sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact
the TAF sites aft 03Z-05Z with ocnl MVFR cigs and reduced vis to
1-3SM. Storm will impact the TAF site thru 09Z-11Z aft which
MVFR cigs are fcst before dropping into IFR aft 14Z-16Z. A cold
front has moved thru STJ and MCI with winds out of the NW at
10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts to begin the TAF pd. This front
will move thru MKC and IXD around TAF valid time shifting winds
to the W/WNW btn 10-15kts with gust to 20-25kts. By 22Z...winds
will shift to the north at all TAF sites btn 10-15kts. Winds
will cont to shift to the NE by 03Z-05Z remaining btn 10-15kts
before becmg easterly late in the TAF fcst pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73